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I think the new Managing Director will insure Announcements are properly reviewed with better exposure...surely they have learned their lesson...
Correct, December, January, or February....dependent upon weather....
Yes sir, I would have to go back and review what they did there initially but I do know Bird Brain Biden cost them several million to cover for delays...I'll investigate further and give my take on why it cost so much originally Merlin-1 was estimated at TOTAL $4MM OTD...ended up being $13MM, that's a significant cost increase, need to understand fully....
Your very welcome, everyone be patient if you don't see me I am busy drilling the wells I am working on right now...so I'm on again off again, I haven't abandon you...8 hrs ahead of US here as well but I work nights so kinda evens things out, see you Gents tomorrow, I mean today...lol...
“As part of a standard cost review, 88E’s share of the cost of Merlin 1 has been revised to US$4m (increased from US$1.4m). The main contributing factors to the cost increase are delays associated with the Executive Order regarding the issuance of the Permit to Drill; costs associated with shutdown and re-start whilst clarification was attained regarding the Executive Order; delays associated with cold weather and the subsequent knock on to mobilization costs as a result of expediting activities to meet the operational timetable.
https://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/297766191.shtml
Sidewall Core Samples they were able to get from the prospective reservoirs...
https://www.petroleumonline.com/modules/m005/hl_005_011.asp
Heres what they look like when pulled out of the hole, you can seethe one misfire that has an empty barrel, the rest have formation samples...
https://www.dreamstime.com/stock-images-sidewall-core-swc-gun-formation-inside-chambers-oilfield-logging-tool-image33588694
See this post for oil saturation % and porosity...this was a discovery Charlie-1: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=163114875
No sir the integrity of the casing and well is still there, they can be nippled up and tested and ready to drill in 1 to 1-1/2 days max with rig on location probably less very simple job to re-enter a well...
I stated they would never be able to keep a drilling assy in the old hole they cemented up, the cement is harder then the formation and bit will just "walk-off" the cement plug and take off in the formation side tracking itself...happens ALL the time...guaranteed..
I would love too...would work for them for free just to find out details of what went wrong the electrical failure, the failure to get pump-outs and samples from the two prospective reservoirs, the mud rheology, and the downhole condition they encountered...
and to review the logs...Gamma Ray, Resistivity and Density would be very telling across these intervals
I could pinpoint the issues they had in a few hours max,
BUT that don't mean I could do any better than them at resolving the issues on site in real time, there were probably other limitations involved and they couldn't overcome those limitations to resolve the issues they were having...but I would love to try...
41 yrs drilling wells, I had better know something...lol...just landed a well at 87 degrees last night in the largest offshore reservoir in the world...Safaniya Reservoir...
They didn't originally need the partner until they got the Permit put on hold, they had the rig already contracted and had to pay whatever the standby rate was as per contract...so they were in the hole (no pun intended) before they even started drilling...
No sir, 3MM-4MM total to re-enter Merlin-1...
All the hard work is done, re-enter, cleanout and re-drill probably 10-14 days total...mission accomplished...
Took 12 days from the time they spudded the well until they were drilling ahead out of the casing shoe at 1512ft...that 12 days was expensive...they will not have buy rig time, casing, cement, drilling fluid, bits, etc to redrill that section and set surface casing again...the permit to re-enter for further data will be easier to get as well....
It will be MUCH cheaper...
No sir, maybe 3MM...4MM max with proper planning and execution...
By law and good engineering practices (I haven't worked in US in many years) they would have had to set a cement plug across the shoe at 1500ft where the set the last casing...250ft above and 250 ft below the casing shoe combined 500ft cement plug
ALMOST impossible to drill back into the old well path (this guy should know this), the cement will actually be harder then the formation and even if they try, the bit will walk off the cement and sidetrack on it's own in whichever direction it finds the least resistant....not good
Better to go in with a AKO Mud Motor/MWD/LWD set at 1 degree (Directional Drilling Assy), clean out cement until 3-5ft below the 1500ft casing shoe, then orient the Mud Motor/Bit and kick off in the desired direction after reviewing the Logs and Seismic together and making a well path plan to cross ALL the reservoirs/zones of interest with a fresh drill hole utilizing a competent water based mud system that will insure that they do not damage the formations/zones of interest or wash out the hole and make it over sized...
They can then obtain excellent results from Logs and Formation Tester...
Once initial logs are complete (Quad Combo or Triple Combo) w/ NMR then go back in the hole and displace to an oil based drilling fluid or load the water based mud up with Glycol 3-4% and displace at a low rate so the hole doesn't get washed out....
Then run MDT Modular Dynamic Formation Tester and get valid results...samples and pump outs to confirm permeability, fluid type, and porosity...
I can almost bet the poor mud system rheology was the culprit here that caused ALL the issues they had...98% sure poor mud system and/or poor maintenance of the mud system or drilling fluid...If I had seen the mud rheology that they were looking at and it was probably poor, they should have choppered in some chemicals and treated it properly to avoid these issues....they could have choppered in several pallets of chemicals that would have made the difference...I am sure...only they will ever know this, we'll never see that, but BIG suspect in my mind....
IF the percentage of oil/saturation is even better than Charlie-1 BIG discovery...this will be pins and needles waiting on these results...also of course they need to confirm mobility or permeability (the ability for oil to flow thru' the pore spaces)....so anything close to Charlie-1 will be stellar, should see a good pps response as well...they need to use MSM somehow someway and we also need to get it on Stocktwits and to the Reddit crowd....
Oil and Gas Leasing NPR-A 3135.1-6 Lease Renewal.
(a)(1) With a discovery—At any time after the fifth year of the primary term of a lease, the BLM may approve a 10-year lease renewal for a lease on which there has been a well drilled and a discovery of hydrocarbons even if the BLM has determined that the well is not capable of producing oil or gas in paying quantities. The BLM must receive the lessee's application for lease renewal no later than 60 days prior to the expiration of the primary term of the lease.
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2007/05/22/E7-9696/oil-and-gas-leasing-national-petroleum-reserve-alaska
Yes sir have ridden them since 2005 I think last time I was there was 2010...best I remember...good times...a lot of fun...
Thats based off sell orders alone? Correct?
Strictly depends on results and oil saturation of the Sidewall Cores, if the saturation is 70% or above, $4-5 per bbl in the ground....lower than that $3-4 per bbl in the ground...if it is 40-44 API (Light Crude)...if a lower API it will lower the price...
YES-YES-YES no doubt they learned a lesson....
They are sitting on a "gold mine" just a matter of time, once Merlin-1 is "proven" from the sidewall cores that will give the stock a boost, don't know how much because I don't know where they will announce it...if only on their website, not much, if they can manage to get it out on MSM, then a significant jump, once they review and remap the reservoir based off Merlin-1 results, there could be some significant buyout interest I am sure...basically we are in a "holding pattern" until they announce results...I am excited and actually more interested in the NMR logging results (Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Log)...would love to get my hands on that log...
I originally thought they were working of 3D Seismic as well, but it was only 2D...they should get a 3D seismic done this winter across the areas of interest once the logging data is reviewed....this would really pinpoint their next well site....and also verify IF they should re-enter Merlin-1 for additional data and flow test....
Going by Charlie-1 evaluation result timing:
6-8 weeks best guess...
Charlie-1 was plugged in April 2020:
https://www.ogj.com/exploration-development/article/14173541/88-energy-plugs-charlie1-north-slope-well-premier-to-exit-project
Charlie-1 results updated here July 2020: Page 6
http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02258013.pdf
Bought more shares myself...
Tried to email Dave Wall as well from my:
Saudi Aramco account no response...
Correct, critically important they double confirm oil saturation...
88 Energy Investor Update f/ July 2020:
http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02258013.pdf
Merlin-1 results reveal/announcement should:
Headline news on several major outlets minimum, then they need to add revised reservoir data and potential reserves as well....IF they are smart about it, big win for them and investors...I think the new Managing Director will do this, he is an asset man, and is going to try and build the company with assets...from what I see they need it...
Mr Gilbert could really capitalize for the company and shareholders on the Merlin-1 results! I'm sure he is already thinking in this direction....
Doing my best to get a timeline on results, but it looks like they are going to get them double verified by two separate labs, this will take more time, BUT they are doing this for potential buyers, so there is NO doubt of what the buyers will be purchasing...
They had the Charlie-1 results in July or possibly sooner, so I'm thinking they are going to have them in 6-8 weeks maximum...my educated guess...they need guaranteed verification from a valid API Lab....twice....it will be worth the wait I'm sure...
They are so close to a big discovery...I can smell the oil from here, that light condensate oil has a unique smell....similar to money...lol....
Exactly, isn't that the norm these days...sadly...
Merlin-1 Location:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/69%C2%B029'04.5%22N+152%C2%B021'48.0%22W/@69.4845852,-152.365522,343m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d69.4845833!4d-152.3633333
Umiat Airport Location:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Umiat+Airport+(UMT)/@69.3660885,-152.1451607,899m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x50d8de120fa14d07:0x545c223448e6ff95!8m2!3d69.3697425!4d-152.1399354?hl=en
They are both found in different horizons at different depths....Pantheon had good shows from shallow possibly Nanushuk Formation (They don't specify but primary looks to be Nanushuk at a shallower depth), but they are now focusing interest on a deep prospect that has significant pressure Kuparuk Formation which has been developed further North....Yes could all be related, but a long shot....you can see the location of the Nanushuk vs Kuparuk in this stratigraphic/geology chart...Kuparuk is much deeper...Merlin-1 was to actually penetrate HRZ and that's where they found the deeper prospect, I'll do some more research on GRZ vs HRZ....
"The Talitha #A appraisal well spudded ahead of schedule on 13 January, 2021, with drilling planned to a total vertical depth of approx. 10,000 feet. The well will target the shallowest Shelf Margin Deltaic horizon as the primary objective and will also drill through a number of secondary objectives including: (i) the 'Slope Fan System', (ii) the 'Basin Floor Fan', and (iii) the 'Kuparuk' horizons.
Camped and rode in those dunes for days out there...was a great time...
TBH I thought it was based off all the Sells that were in queue...the more sells in queue when market is closed the more the price is driven down, same goes for Buys that why the a stock is green before opening?
Are you getting the sand out of the Kermit Sand Dunes?