Retail won’t be the main movers post favorable Scotus. Ackman will start the hype train. Just needs Scotus ...

Getting close to the last chance for JPS to rebalance into Commons ...

So Pagliara thought counsel submitted a motion for summary judgement before Lamberth?

A bit premature - one would think Pags would know better ... these JPS guys are a strange bunch ... they take 3 steps forward then 4 steps back ... bizarre

Chronic, rest assured the justices and their army of clerks fully get the picture. We must wait and see ...

Diamond and Shanon - there are definitely some similarities between Caniglia vs. Strom and Collins vs. Yellen.

Rubric
Caniglia v Strom = Collins v Yellen

- Man voluntarily goes to the hospital for suicide watch = FnF voluntarily enters conservatorship, more like coerced, which is even worse

- Cops enter man’s home while in the hospital and take his guns = Gov takes all of FnF’s value/profits

- Lower courts rule cops were allowed to enter his home to take the guns = Lower courts rule Gov seizure of GSE profits and shareholder value is legal

- Scotus says not legal = Scotus says ?

Some interesting similarities ... let’s see

https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/supreme-court-rules-against-warrantless-seizure-of-guns-while-man-is-in-hospital-for-suicide-evaluation

Navy, doesn't look good for a fast recap if Brown is leaving ...

Hi Shadow

Shadow - completely different case with different constitutional questions. A criminal state sentence question and unanimous jury has no bearing on Collins.

U missed half the numbers in draw by number ...

Good news is Calabria is gone in 6 weeks or less. All of his strict bank regulation will go away soon enough with a new cap rule.

Or, even better, the very specific and tailored legislation that is HERA could be bulldozed by SCOTUS, erasing all FHFA actions. ACG puts that probability at 35%. I put that probability at 50%. CFPB has far reaching impact across all US consumers across multiple industries. HERA de facto only applies to the GSEs. Not that much of a strech.

If HERA gets gutted, how could you not sell some JPS for Commons?

Should be a fast and furious next several weeks.

ACG says 35% chance of bulldozing HERA. I think it is closer to 50% for bulldozing HERA.

Ackman says Scotus can be a “game changer.” How can you not have a % in Commons?

Just went on an ignoring spree ... can finally see and read the board

So, so far it looks like May is being used as decision writing month. If so, June will be a fun month to watch for opinions.

HERA being written narrowly for the GSEs only could spell their demise. Definitely within the realm of possibilities - I think it is better than 35% that ACG is putting out there. I'd say it is 50v50.

Who knows but bulldozing HERA could be incredible!

How can JPS not take a flyer on that?

Rob, just as long as the GSEs are free and empowered via deregulation to reap the benefits so we can also and get out is fine by me. History is destined to repeat itself ...

Navy - Bravo!

FF - you may want to attribute a link next time. The content of that post went way beyond aforementioned limitations. They were not your words, nor would anyone believe them to be ...

https://www.theregreview.org/2020/07/21/bell-revisiting-constitutionality-independent-agencies/

Glen Bradford has been wrong so many times ...


Thought I had more? Nope - nothing else to say ...

Trunk - yep - JPS inventing fantasy like Tim Howard said to get out of a JPS quagmire trade ..

Per Bill Ackman - SCOTUS could be a game changer ...

Bill will let you know ...

Donot - don’t worry - Bill Ackman will let you know ...

Gaby (ACG) made points that favor commons in the video. Was nice to see ...

According to Rule of Law Guy’s cheat sheet highlighted by Navy’s repost, either Constitutional or APA victory from SCOTUS provides the same relief.

The good news for Commons will be if/when we cross a favorable SCOTUS threshold, the Ackman’s of the world won’t be tolerating any of this Commons manipulation on the OTC. Everything will be a foregone conclusion.

ACG believes the Cap Rule will also be updated, meaning it won’t be so punitive to the GSEs in terms of capital maintenance. I listened to a weekend radio program on affordable housing and how what has been done to date by Calabria can be construed by affordable housing advocates as counter to the affordable housing mandate. Calabria is absolutely prrsona non grata.

I also watched the ACG and Pagliara video. Gaby seems much more objective compared to Pagliara. Saw the questions asked during the video. One that popped up that wasn’t answered was that Pags deems the gov paid back. If Pags believes the gov is paid back, how can the warrants be a certainty at taking %80 of the companies? Seems if the gov is paid back then the warrants should be managed equitably between the companies and the gov. Taking 80% control of the companies does not seem good faith providing the gov has been paid back and will only continue litigation.

Any settlement will require the warrants be settled equitably. I’m more certain of that than ever.

Junior Preferred Shares are a quagmire trade. The CFO of Fannie Mae who issued the JPS shares that many JPS investors are invested in called those shares a quagmire. And Tim Howard also said JPS investors are inventing scenarios to justify their trade. (see link below)

https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2020/10/07/the-director-digs-in/#comments

Tim Pagliara referenced this IHUB forum.

The fact Tim P mentioned this forum is a huge red flag ...

Not on the OTC ... manipulate as low as possible ... hilarious

I would laugh so hard if an opinion day was announced for tomorrow ... manipulation is fun and games ...

Can't wait for Ackman, et al, to jump in after a favorable Scotus and put an end to this manipulation ...

Lajrchamp - you are incorrect on several points. Gorsuch is not "cool" to remedy, in fact he is probably one of two that are 100% for blasting FHFA and HERA from the face of the planet. It remains to be seen if another 3 justices can get onboard. I suggest reading Rule of Law Guys Collins Cheat Sheet. Pretty good/basic summary. I think some items can be further detailed but IMO a good synopsis.

The 5 amendment takings vs constitutional separation of powers will be played. Takings 5th amendment provides plaintiffs another avenue ...

JPS are pushing various scenarios to get out of a quagmire trade. That isn't my idea, that is the idea of Tim Howard, the CFO of Fannie Mae who issued the JPS shares they are invested in.

I love how JPS rely upon Calabria and Mnuchin even now, after a 50% drop in value relative to Commons post Calabria and Mnuchin inaction. That inaction gutted the JPS of investment thesis = Trump would help out Paulson, and every boutique investment shack would ride the coat tails of Paulson. What a let down ...

Once Calabria is gone all of that LA rubbish goes away. A new cap rule will be proposed - possibly legislative efforts ... why are JPS hanging their hat on past Trump lip service? What a quagmire!

Remember not too long ago when we all were assured Mnuchin and Calabria were going to act before Trump’s term ended? Remember how certain folks were? The certainty was absolutely incredible!

And here we are again ...

JPS Quagmire ...

Top Ten bailed out companies and Government associated profit. And of course after earning so much more money than anyone else, the government must now take 80% of the GSEs equity ... Let's see what SCOTUS says.

Name --------- Total Disbursed ---- Profit
FNMA -- $119,836,000,000 -- $61,489,000,000
FNMC -- $71,648,000,000 -- $48,033,000,000
CG -- $45,000,000,000 -- $13,448,572,616
AIG -- $67,835,000,000 -- $5,025,967,492
BA -- $45,000,000,000 -- $4,566,857,694
GMAC -- $16,290,000,000 -- $3,057,502,589
WF -- $25,000,000,000 -- $2,281,347,113
JPM -- $25,000,000,000 -- $1,731,202,357
GS -- $10,000,000,000 -- $1,418,055,555
MS -- $10,000,000,000 -- $1,268,055,555

Tutt - So now Pagliara is becoming Dick Bove ... Ugh ...

The JPS quagmire continues ...

Here are the folks who work at Tim Pagliara's Cap Wealth Advisors.

https://www.capwealthgroup.com/our-team/timothy-j-pagliara

Shadow - simply not true. I'm betting on dilution. I'm not betting on more than 3 to 5 billion shares of dilution.

There is no lead security. Commons are P/E sensitive ... amazing we got an email from TP talking about Commons get nothing until Preferreds get what they deserve. Sure, from a dividend standpoint, but in a free market, the vast, vast majority of companies trade at some book value with earnings. Discount dividends to some percentage, max 25%.

Fascinating JPS believe commons are locked out due to dividends, which is simply not the case. The market is pricing 6 to 12 months out and with a favorable SCOTUS, it gets interesting for Commons.

JPS I don't know. Very nuanced trade that requires more legal, political, and business moving parts to attain full JPS value.

This is why Ackman says 10$ after a favorable Scotus. He isn't paying attention to JPS par/pseudo-fixe income , and for obvious reasons. Commons don't operate within the par JPS/psuedo-fixed income construct.

Remember, the Treasury is not supposed to maximize profits off of bailouts. I expect Scotus to get into the ballpark of this theme ...

Gorsuch summed it up nicely during oral arguments, something to the effect of, "we're basically here to determine the remedy ..."

With a favorable SCOTUS, Commons still go up, Commons still get dividends, and we all live happily ever after ... the end

Tutt - get ready for a new cap rule, legislative proposals to try for a utility approach, etc etc etc ...

There will be no fast and easy way out of the JPS quagmire trade.

Per Tim Howard - the former CFO of Fannie Mae on Fannie & Freddie Junior Preferred Shareholders (JPS).

Post Scotus get ready for a new cap rule! Woohoo!!!

Seems like that selling fury today sucked up someone’s or some group’s dry powder and didn’t expect the rubber band to snap back so qucikly.

And now there is an uptick in JPS posting. Coincidence? Maybe ... Or maybe not ... 2 Months and all the erroneous speculation and incessant posting will come to an end ...

Not sure why JPS waste their time ...

That's because the administration doesn't believe they can fire Calabria. It is referenced all throughout the SCOTUS documents that the Obama administration legally thought it impossible to remove DeMarco due to HERA.

Main reason why we are before SCOTUS on constitutional separation of powers issues.

Calabria is gone after SCOTUS ...

How many back office folks are out here?

https://www.capwealthgroup.com/our-team/timothy-j-pagliara

Trunk, the full giveaway was when the cap rule was released in Nov 2020 and JPS spiked and the next day commons took off. A huge trade was sitting on top of Commons not allowing it to go. Next day the block was removed and Commons were allowed to run.

There is absolute manipulation happening. Not saying we should be more than a buck or two higher without the manipulation but manipulation exists plain and simple.

SCOTUS can fix that ...

Glend Bradford seeking alpha articles have been wrong over and over and over so many times.

He’s been guessing with the rest of the JPS for 4 years.

Caution in believing his articles....

I hope folks realize the foto is most likely not the person. Probs Bradford for all we know ...