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White Cobra, good thoughts.
Well written and balanced Kondratieff Cycle article - http://www.scribd.com/doc/116141019/Thunder-Road-December
Protection of wealth...Gold&Silver..bonds..certain stocks..flow of money..protection of wealth and more are discussed in understandable terms.
This is not a quick bedtime read but worth the time. While the focus of the article is on the Kondratieff Cycle lots of fundamental ideas are brought to support the cycle's validity.
SilverEagle, "Why not chase the big fish" :)) I'm guessing we both know the "big fish" are working for the U.S. government & Federal Reserve to support confidence in the U.S. Dollar.
By going after the 'small' fish U.S. government regulatory agencies
seem to be attempting to legitimize their existence and maintain
some level of confidence to keep the overall fabric of business transactions in this country from unraveling.
But what's happening seems a bit schizophrenic. The U.S. gov. wants support of the dollar as a world reserve currency which implies support in confidence & value of the dollar and at the same time has devised ways to devalue it faster than other countries can typically devalue their currency.
Bottom line appears to be the U.S' years of foolish borrowing has come home to roost and now it's talking out both sides of its mouth
as a stalling tactic. But due to the news media's radical bias to the 'ruling' political entity most folks are not aware of certain rather scary facts.
So what does the above have to do with gold&silver ? Seems to me both gold & silver prices are in a pressure cooker building up a price force that will be more suddenly released in some level of an explosion someday - possibly soon.
WC, gov. selling assets into the market to lessen inflation
is an interesting idea that someday might happen. However, it seems
to me this could occur after Central banks flood the world with fiat currency eventually setting off a pseudo inflation of sorts in an effort to stop deflation. By that time we might plan on having much less PM : )
In the face of positive technical indicators & fundamental reality supporting a price increase in gold&silver the cartel is flexing
its muscles again. As usual, it's using the news media ... this time they're telling us the Fiscal cliff and deflation are reasons for the selling pressure in gold&silver.
WC, yes, there seems to be signs potential gold&silver investors will wake up soon. (How bad does it have to get before they catch on ?) I'm thinking when that time arrives I'll wish it could have been just a bit later to let me accumulate more.
Thinking about perspective...
An accurate birds-eye-view of what's happening re. precious metal investing could be called the High Road. (I keep referring to Mike Maloney : ) Maloney's high-road/birds' eye view of gold&silver as a current investment is based on the economic history of currencies. Each story of a currency's rise & demise has been repeated over and over through history with little variation.
Sometimes my brain gets overloaded while trying to absorb all the details of dozens & dozens of sordid sub stories citing currency wars, gold&silver price manipulation, theft of segregated funds, blind and/or corrupt news media, loss of Constitutional rights, etc. etc. When overload happens I remember that it's just the 'noise' that Maloney refers to and is bound to occur as the world transitions to a new currency structure probably less favorable to the U.S.
SP, yep, trading the swings is business as usual for some - wash,rinse,dry and repeat. Goes to show within the umbrella
of manipulation that has greatly retarded silver prices there are
those have the power to repeatedly manipulate a bit and get
rich.
WC, "so blatant even the normal sheep could see it" (manipulation). LOL great humor.
It seems the big manipulation is that of PROTECTING THE U.S. DOLLAR at ALL COST. Precious metals price manipulation likely began immediately after Nixon ended conversion of the U.S. dollar into gold in 1971 effectively putting the world on fiat currency. It's become apparent precious metals price manipulation (going on for decades) is just one of many ways the U.S. has of plugging holes in a sinking ship/dollar value/economy.
ALL COST is pretty inclusive - abandonment of Constitutional rights (shameful & exceedingly unwise), confiscation of 'segregated' investor deposits (theft is unlawful), export of inflation (extremely cruel to the poor in 3rd world countries) bankruptcy of foreign countries (immoral), etc.
None ought to be surprised that gold&silver prices are heavily manipulated and the manipulation will not be ended voluntarily. Jim Sinclair and other analysts suggest the manipulation will come 'unglued' when world demand vacuums up enough gold&silver to bankrupt the 'paper' gold&silver enterprises (COMEX & others). Sinclair says we'll know when this happens as gold will have days when it trades in a hundred dollar range and silver will have a range of dollars.
WC, Yet they will win ?(Cartel) .. HET (nyeht) - the cartel will not win their war on gold&silver pricing. Like you I believe that while they are presently still in control, eventually their efforts will get steam-rolled by the scared stampede of folks rushing to buy physical gold&silver as a last resort to maintain whatever level of wealth they have (left).
The wait we're experiencing before the cartel's efforts begin to crumble while frustrating is a blessing as it's allowed those who see the need to accumulate real money (gold&silver) an extended time to do so.
When Ted Butler writes about silver manipulation folks interested in accurate information ought to read what he offers. He's THE guru on the subject.
Speaking of manipulation, 4 of the 6 articles offered this morning on GoldSilver.com are about manipulation. It's been written the 'cartel' sees the writing on the wall (their price suppression scheme will loose). Taking this idea and this morning's 4 GoldSilver articles into consideration it appears the cartel is rushing scared to reinforce its defenses.
White Cobra, agree with all that you posted and hope silver&gold stay in a 'modest' price range long enough for those contributing to this board to reach - or get close to - at least a security net number of ounces.
And those fortunate enough who have the means to acquire larger amounts of precious metal for future sizable investments they have my best wishes...and envy : ))
At this time it seems there are several *very* well-healed entities with their own agendas that contribute to silver pricing manipulation/gyrations and was curious if anyone wanted to guess what's going on in lieu of the very recent strength of silver.
Just spiked past 34. which makes me wonder
how the manipulation group figures into the
recent price strength ?
Sp, re. "deflationary factors" I was reciting what Pento wrote "There is currently *no revenue or earnings growth* for American companies and the global economy is flirting with recession. On top of that America faces its own version of austerity come January. *Tax hikes* and *spending reductions* would cut 100's of billions off the fiscal 2013 deficit sending the already-anemic economy into a deflationary depression. With nearly 600 billion less debt for the Fed to monetize, the growth rate of the money supply would contract which would send asset prices and most markets tumbling."
He goes on saying "the government cares about fixing our entitlements, deficits and debt. Once the U.S. stops pretending it is concerned about the debts and deficits, commodity prices, especially gold, will soar."
(I'm assuming most on this board - myself for sure - want what precious metal/s we have to become more valuable). I was trying to as accurately as possible present what seemed like a well reasoned (Pinto) opinion of what could happen and how it could influence precious metal prices. Guess my paraphrasing efforts weren't very good : )
White Cobra,
I feel for your personal situation of knowing what's needed/precious metal accumulation and servicing your personal needs. Only you can best judge what to do.
As for the Phy$ical Cliff, what's happening is a Congress that has for several decades ruthlessly over spent tax payers hard earned money is now engaged in a raging war over how to arrange the chairs on the sinking USA luxury liner. How this has something to do with the subject of this forum it guarantees precious metals will be one of a few ways to help protect whatever wealth one has.
Re. unemployment compensation I'm guessing more & more responsibility in protecting jobless individuals and families will be moved from U.S. government responsibility to the states to wrestle with. Of course states, counties & towns can't print currency so two things will happen - we'll do with less & less state,county&local public aid & services and our state,county & city taxes taxes will increase dramatically.
I'm afraid we've only seen the previews of the economic suffering to come. I'm wondering how many folks will loose their homes because they won't be able to pay their county property taxes ?
SP, sure hope that Commodities on Line article is right. There are a bunch of reasons gold&silver could continue up. Choosing accurate information and being able to weave it together to make a correct guess of what gold&silver will do in the short & short-intermediate term is a challenge for sure.
With this in mind one of today's KING WORLD BUSINESS articles written by Michael Pinto might give clues about what to expect. His piece starts with a current survey of Europe and ends by citing what is about to happen in the U.S. - tax increases, budget cuts, etc. - and the likely (short term) deflationary impact these changes will produce which will negatively impact the price of gold&silver along with other assets). He says this short lived deflation will cause a quick return to massive currency printing which will strongly support gold&silver pricing.
His logic has produced a believable scenario and sounds the same as what Mike Maloney offered just a few short years ago. Watching the tug-of-war between various current positives and the coming negative deflationary factors ought to be very interesting.
wer123, yep it's sad to see those truly in need suffering because they assumed the government would take care of them. As good as the U.S. system of restocking consumer goods & critical necessities is
it does have its limits.
This could? be a good preview of a time in the future when tens of millions U.S. citizens who never prepared (in any way) to be self-sufficient even for a short period of time could be hard pressed to survive.
Now we're getting reports of lots of looting and one guy who butted into a long line of folks waiting for gasoline with a pistol. Fortunately there was law enforcement there to cart the pistol packer off to jail.
Again....this is a mini preview of what could happen (with variations) to much or all the country if we experienced the results a sudden confluence of bad financial, military, weather, etc. events.
Having even a modest amount of silver&gold with a pantry reasonably full of non refrigerated food is something nearly everyone can do.
Remember the Boy Scout motto.
snootmagruder, Great article that explains how the loss
of a stable currency unravels the fabric of 'civilized' societies. Apparently we are a nation of spoiled fools who have elected fools
to safeguard the value of what should have been our sacred
currency.
While Dylan Grice doesn't guarantee the USA will follow the same exact unfortunate course of past societies that debased their currencies he certainly gives us a glimpse of what seems likely and why it will happen if/as the Dollar looses too much of its value too fast.
Will the frog remain in the pot as the water temperature rises or will it jump out and create havoc ?
WC, I'm not for squeezing the life out of businesses via over-regulative bull-shit laws and huge taxes but BigBanking/the tail is wagging the dog/U.S. citizens now so I'd say certain regulations i.e. Glass-Steagall Act that were cast aside re. banks should have remained in place. By the removal of too many key regulations congress & 3 or 4 past presidents has created a
BigBanking monster that threatens U.S. citizens' economic welfare
in many ways.
Just one of many ways BigBanking threatens us~~~> within the last few months guess who has taken on Bank of America's $35-$75 trillion depending which source is correct...(whats a few trillion :) derivatives liability ? If you guessed U.S. taxpayers you'd be right.
Proper regulations that were in effect a couple of decades ago forbid banks from entering risky operations like the present *unregulated* derivatives market.
White Cobra, Guess you've noticed the absence of any discussion about resolving U.S. debt from either presidential candidate : )The debt thingy is way too scary and neither candidate wants to inflict
this kind of fear on prospective voters and loose their support at the ballot box.
It's apparent Obama doesn't have a clue about sound economic ideas and the idea Romney could fix the galloping debt problem might linger a brief time if he's elected before vanishing like a fart in a gale.
White Cobra, seems your fix on things is realistic. We shouldn't forget the $16 trillion gorilla sitting in the kitchen eating over
40% of our groceries/budget before
we attempt to pay our other (government) bills. Obama and Romney ought to debate how to fix this debt but they won't touch it because they are politicians and resolving it will result at best in a lower standard of living and at worst lots of pain - likely a combination of both.
There's hope for a sustained silver bull market in the intermediate
and long term. My guess is...what's happening is a huge short term position will force silver to possibly retrace its price back to near the recent low but not below $26/$27. Whatever low is reached - an influx of Eastern buying might abbreviate a low-ball price from happening - will be very brief because of sizable 'outside' buying along with massive short cover buying and will be the start of a sustained upward price movement to $50 and beyond.
Obviously I like to guess where silver is headed : )
In the latest King World interview professional trader Dan Norcini said there's a humongous short silver position and if the price got knocked below 33.30 this evening or tomorrow morning it would take some stops out and we'd see lower prices. Silver opened and fell immediately to 33.024.
If Norcini is correct how low is lower ? Brother John F. says we might? see another great price to stack more silver.
Stinky pinky, I get your drift - because Maloney sells gold & silver services for profit his 'take' on the two precious metals is likely overstated and bombastic : ). I'm sure you're right. I'm wondering to what degree ?
Guess the same could can be stated about Eric Sprott, James Turk, Jim Sinclair & Rick rule too. And to some degree Ted Butler, Doug Casey and Jim Willie opinions ought to be very carefully scrutinized in lieu of their pro gold & silver stance because of their paid for opinions.
While Maloney mentions gold&silver prices potentially reaching astronomically and probably unreasonably high prices in order to reconcile them to the U.S. currency structure imo this shouldn't compromise most of the nut&bolts and historical information he offers.
Mike Maloney says silver manipulation is good.
In a U Tube interview with Lauren Lyster Maloney stated the longer silver is manipulated the higher price it would ultimately reach.
I'm thinking he bases his premise on the idea as time passes more currency will be created and thus reconciled to an increased priced of silver&gold.
Hope this takes a bit of the sting out of watching the manipulation
drag on and on and on : )
Re. KITCO this isn't the first time they've published articles supporting a non manipulated silver market. Sometime back I read what seemed like a deceptive article on silver written by high profile KITCO analyst. Since then I stopped reading their articles.
Call me paranoid lol it seems probable (to me) there is manipulation carried on by large entities within the larger manipulative framework supported by the government/Federal Reserve.
Said it before - several times : ) In 'so many' words still like Mike Maloney's thoughts on what's happening....in the short term everything is just background noise and currency will be reconciled to gold & silver. I'll add that currency value could also be reconciled to a basket of other things including gold&silver.
As world economies hurry to devalue their currencies there will be lots of jockeying for political and financial gain that will affect gold&silver pricing in the very short term as it increases in value.
S p, it's obvious the strategy put in place just a few short years ago
to control silver pricing still works flawlessly. An understanding that U.S. government regulatory entities have no intent to enforce laws and regulations limiting the suppression of silver's price leaves us looking for an 'outside' remedy to the manipulation problem.
With China wanting to accumulate as much silver as possible at the lowest price it's not likely their government will allow any of its exchanges to tamper with U.S. suppression of silver pricing. So what's it going to take to raise silver's price to accurately reflect past decades of real inflation as well as providing
protection from future rank devaluation of the dollar ?
I'm about resigned to thinking the only remedy to the manipulated price suppression will be when economic events scare the hell out of enough people that fear buying will overwhelm all manipulative efforts. At whatever time this happens the silver train will likely leave lower pricing levels so fast prospective accumulators will wish they had started earlier - a lot earlier.
Silver closing above 35. & gold above 1780. would certainly support the idea both might continue moving higher.
It seems there are two different economic worlds existing side by side. One is a real world with physical rules & laws that exact punishment on those who defy its truths too long. The other world appears to be a creation of liberal wishing & dreaming of ideas that often exceed what's possible. Can't help remember the Star Wars movie line You have to believe ! Believing in what's possible is good. Believing in what's not possible can bring disaster.
I'm amazed the news media has been able to create such a seductive economic fantasy world for so long in which prospective physical precious metals (PMs) buyers are content with paper equities. How much proof do they need that 'paper' assets are an endangered investment ? As more (real) negative economic evidence has come forth a trickle of physical silver&gold buying has turned into a small but steady stream. As the consequences of QE3 become apparent I'm thinking potential physical metals buyers inside the fantasy economic world will migrate to the real world buying PMs and overwhelm attempts to manipulate the prices down.
Takes patience for this to happen and I'll just keep stacking
until it does.
Silver broke $35 again (35.025) last night- 4th time past 35. by my count.
tallstahl, thanks for opening up a nice chat with good information about silver manipulation. Question that crosses my mind is...if JP Morgan Chase is manipulating (and I assume it is) and if it can't be stopped then what circumstances will it take to move silver prices substantially higher?
Jim Sinclair says the impact of QE3/printing to infinity will
reach the markets (gold,silver,dollar) in 90 days. I'm hoping
we'll see physical buying of silver&gold ratchet up about that
time. Without some significant news creating buying before
then the two metals could have a tough time appreciating more in value.
As usual, just a guess.
tallstahl, I've always assumed at some point JPM Chase would
go into accumulation mode of physical silver.
However, creating a plan to have their cake and eat it too was pure genius. So...setting up the Comex with paper certs, then printing
100 times more paper than physical in order to control the physical price at artificially low prices allowed it: (1) to methodically accumulate physical at rock bottom prices (2) to help buoy the value of the U.S. Dollar.
It's no wonder JPM was 'given' Chase Bank and more bailout currency
than any of the other big banks. Since their bailout it's effectively
been a proxy of the federal government.
IF the above is accurate (and it seems very possible) it suggests those accumulating physical silver could be richly rewarded someday.
Possible positive chart pattern shown on FINVIC.com 1 hr. chart -
7 day diminishing volume 5 wave horizontal move.
Yeh, sticking my neck out on this one (with computerized hi speed algorithmic trading lurking : ) but the 7 day move has several technical traits suggesting a near term break to upside.
At $35 an oz. silver was vulnerable to a correction and the cartel helped launch it. Interestingly their rigged slap-down didn't initiate any type of stampede to much lower levels.
Neither Rick Rule or Doug Casey believe the price of silver is being manipulated. These are two very smart individuals. Maybe they're thinking only long term manipulation can't be changed by manipulators. Obviously it is in the very short term. Oh well............
Exactly my thinking too. With no news to influence silver pricing price down & loosing nearly .10 a minute for 8 minutes it had to be a computerized take-down.
Someday the quoted price between 'paper' silver and physical silver will be so wide none can claim the silver market is manipulation free. (There are still those like analyst Doug Casey - who I like - that say silver is basically not manipulated).
WoW. Silver went to 35.16 this morning followed by a drop from
35. to 34.30 in 8 minutes. That's nearly minus .10 a minute.
Draw your own conclusions.
basserdan, thanks for the David Morgan interview. Morgan is one of a few precious metals strategist who's calls are nearly always right.
NYBob, beautiful chart pattern. On an 8 month basis CALVF has made a well defined 'W' shaped bottom and appears to be forming the handle of a cup & handle. Both the W shaped bottom and cup & handle are considered very bullish technical indicators.
Hopefully the physical gold market is too big now for the cartel/s to
manipulate the price very far down. If so then appreciating gold ought to help silver pricing.
So far silver has been leading the way up.
Just a thought
Guessing we're through with important statements from ECB & U.S. Fed' for a while. Wondering what will happen to goose PMs to the next substantial increase in price ? 0r will a big news event be
necessary ?