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I agree with BurningMan .036 looks like a good entry - though to be honest, I really feel that anything under .04 is a bargain.
Reality is you don't want to be splitting hairs over fractional pennies in price when this thing is .08 - .12 and up .. as it just wont matter then.
Dont be dollar wise and penny foolish :)
There's lots of sells stacked between .038 and .04, I'm seeing almost 550K shares.
As the bid moves up, additional asks stack in that range.
It's really got to move through that ceiling in order to establish a new floor and let this thing take off.
It's got to break this .04 level and establish a new baseline. It's facing huge resistance there on L2.
I don't think there's any question now that VATE could very well do anywhere between $800K - $1.1M in revenue this year.
Combine that in with NO long term or convertible debt and becoming cash flow positive / net income positive, we're really in an inflection year for this company.
3 distributors readily moving product and 11 in the sales channels!!!
I'm not sure what you're talking about?
POTN averaged just over $2M/month in sales in 2018. Or about $6M/quarter.
Ideally, if the company continues to do well, we should hope to see somewhere between $8M-$11M for Q1 2019 in revenue.
Can't wait to see that. Video evidence preferred.
Rome wasn't built in a day :)
I've stated here before, should these new products for VATE sell well - I think we are at an inflection point for the company. We could be looking at additional distributors, additional flavor profiles, etc.
In tandem to that, the company appears to be doing the right thing regulatory wise - in that they will file for their S-1 Registration. That means more financial transparency and disclosure requirements from the company going forward - details into their capital spend, business plan, improvements, etc.
Lest we forget their existing hemp based coffee and tea lines too. I think they'll see increased profitability and economies of scale since they own the manufacturing process from bean to package. Overseeing the start to finished product typically allow for increased efficiency.
VATE, specifically, is due to release their 2018 Annual as well as Q1 2019 on or around 5/16/19 as stated in the last shareholder letter on OTCmarkets.com
Total volume yesterday hit 5.724M - excellent movement considering its trailing 15 day moving volume average has been 2.962M.
As for price movement looking at a 1 year period:
50 day moving average: $0.0339
100 day moving average: $0.0363
200 day moving average: $0.0401
VATE closed up +16% yesterday, closed up +20.83% over the last 3 days, and closed up +8.82% over the last month.
Short term (1 month) technical movement indicates a "golden cross" as the 50DMA has passed the 200DMA.
Will be interesting to see what happens today. If the volume momentum can keep up, we should be able to stabilize higher. A key indicator will be if VATE can break and hold the .04 line. Should the stock be able to hover between .04 and .045 heading into annual / Q1 2019 financials, we'll be setting up nicely for a robust 2nd half of 2019.
You as well, the research you provide to the board is well documented and good to read. What you have listed out in your post, in my opinion, is a well thought out analysis prior to seeing the hard numbers. Also, the margins could be even better than what you've listed out, I think you've provided a concise and conservative take.
To further your analysis and provide some of my own for 2019 guidance:
Here's what we know- from VATE's PR on 3/28/19 they announced 2018 total revenue will exceed $350,000 and Q1 2019 revenue should be over $100,000.
Let's just assume, for the sake of the argument, that 2018 total revenue comes in at exactly $350,000, we can now assume Q4 2018:
Q1 2018: $70,606
Q2 2018: $82,905 (17.42% increase QoQ)
Q3 2018: $87,863 (6% increase QoQ)
Q4 2018: $108,626 (estimated 23.63% increaes QoQ)
Now, for 2019, we can estimate the following:
Q1 2019: $110,000 (estimated 55.79% increase over Q1 2018 and 1.26% over Q4 2018)
Q2 2019: $110,000 (existing hemp beverage + Zoe sales) + anticipated $230,000 from CBD beverage sales = $340,000 (estimated 310% increase over Q2 2018)
VATE absolutely has the potential to match their entire 2018 revenue number just in Q2 of 2019 and they could potentially have $500,00 booked in revenue by the halfway point of 2019. Then, if the CBD beverages really take off with repeat orders, we could very well see $1M+ in total revenue by the end of 2019.
Lastly, this analysis largely ignores any new additional distributors, grocers, etc - that may have a desire to add VATE products to their offering. So long as share structure can be kept under control, I think 2019 will be the inflection point for VATE.
The case you reference below is not related to the wild toxic convertible note at .003 that has over $1.4M still to go. Note my stickied post here.
The case referenced below is for a sum of money in the thousands, it's an overall insignificant amount of money.
Fair point - but they didn't get their 2018 audited financials completed and filed until April 10th, which is after Q1 2019.
In the shareholder letter, the point out it should be done by mid-year. Reality is, it shouldn't even take that long now that the financials are done. If their house is really in order, the process shouldn't take more than a couple weeks to file the paperwork and then maybe 2 weeks to hear back.
Now its just about filing paperwork and doing the legal work.
I think that's going a bit too far, keep in mind what this letter was supposed to do, as excerpted from their PR on 4/11:
"In addition to their financial statements the company will shortly be releasing an open letter to shareholders providing an update on all of the activities of the past year and putting the company’s situation and successes into context."
So the letter did just that; it re-hashed the accomplishments / business updates from 2018. Painted a broad stroke of what the plan would be for 2019 as well as providing a minor update on the SEC registration.
It left out the meat (update on convertible debt, update on ongoing litigation, update on share structure, etc) .. however, it was never the intent of this letter to cover those things.
Let's see what we get out of the Q1 report.
Glass half full > glass half empty ;)
Agreed, but now we have some timelines around it. Prior to today we didn't have that.
Doing my best to try and find a silver lining here...
Billy Boy - it hit .1385 in the early morning.
Totally agree today's shareholder letter was largely full of nothing. Essentially re-hashed a year's worth of PRs. That being said, there was one nice bit of becoming SEC registered (re-submitting their Form 10) by mid-year.
That would then pave the way for QB uplisting and hopefully they'd get their act together.
Q1 will be due out soon, it'll be interesting to see how it compares YoY and QoQ.
Toxic convertible debt is still the main problem here however.
Couldn't agree more, though based on VATE's past filings, that section has typically been pretty light and far more open-ended.
Rather, I would look for a PR perhaps in 2-4 weeks that could detail how the initial launch of these products went. That would help shape the conversation around Q2.
Annual and Q1, per the last shareholder letter, will be posted on or before 5/16. Hopefully we see improvement, however expectations should be tempered.
The CBD Iced Tea and Coffee will not be baked into the Q1 report, but rather Q2. Once we have Q2 we'll be able to more accurately predict 2019.
I would if I wasn't so underwater, best for me to just ride this out.
Also don't forget the most recent loan in the disclosure page, which included an investment firm offering just over $2.5M in loans convertible at .45.
They must have been privy to financials and other information the general public is not, where they felt comfortable enough getting that high convertible price.
I had been hoping they would have addressed the convertible a long time ago. If you'll notice my bookmarked post here at the top, it's been sitting on their books for quite a while.
The reality is, they only owe $1.6M~ on the note now. Given their rapid expansion over the last 2 years, they could have easily paid this down in $200K lots or even the whole thing at once if they felt like it. So I'm really not sure what their incentive is to keep on. Perhaps it's the way that the debt was structured, I honestly don't know.
POTN said they would be "soon" releasing a letter from their PR dated 4/11. The company is not required to post their Q1 2019 statement until the middle of May (5/15), as they have 30 days from quarter end and then they can file for a 15 day calendar day extension (similarly to what they did for the 2018 Annual).
My best guess is that the Shareholder Letter will be coming sometime in early May and the Quarterly statement will be shortly after. The statement should let us see better into the share structure, convertible note, and how sales have (hopefully) picked up.
Honest to god, the only thing holding POTN back from reaching it's potential is it's share structure. The convertible note is destroying this company.
If that note could be wiped out, POTN wouldn't be in the position it is in today.
Pretty interesting that since VATE started shipping their CBD Coffee, they now have a free shipping option at checkout.
What held me back from placing an order on both the CBD Coffee and Iced Tea was the shipping cost. Didn't make sense to me that I'd have to spend another 50% of the product on shipping. Looks like I'll be getting myself a case of the coffee now and once the CBD Iced Tea is free to ship, I'll do the same.
I really think these products are going to be what sets the tone for VATE's future success. If they can also get these new products on Amazon, coupled with new flavors (Raspberry, Blackberry, etc Iced Teas and French Vanilla, Hazelnut Coffees), VATE will be in store for a dramatic upswing throughout the second half of 2019.
Good catch HT - hopefully that is what resolves this. Nonetheless, it's a poor look for anyone that goes to the OTC website to perform a level of DD on the company.
I believe it surrounds the annual disclosure that was posted, not the audited financials.
It means exactly what it said unfortuantely-
Warning! This company has posted limited financial disclosure through the OTC Disclosure & News Service or is late in their filing obligations with the SEC.
If you'll notice they pulled their 4/10 Annual Disclosure and its now on the "inactive" section of the disclosure page on OTCmarkets and they refiled an updated one on 4/15.
Something was off...
Yield sign on OTCmarkets.com ......
WTF is going on now with POTN...
My 2 cents is that shipping hasn't started likely because of this new distributor. Why? Because we were originally told that the company was planning on an initial bottling of 30,000 units for both the CBD Iced Tea and CBD Coffee.
Perhaps given their pre-order volumes from both distributors, individual marketplaces, and individual people buying - they had to readjust their initial can run to a high number? As I just can't see these shipping delays being a result from under ordering.
I suppose we will see when Q2 is posted in a few months.
Agreed, time will tell. I don't think we need to look beyond the 3/29 PR and the 2/19 and 4/4 Shareholder Updates to see how VATE is set up nicely to succeed in 2019.
2/19 Shareholder Update:
- New CBD Iced Tea and Coffee nearing completion, labels ready. (launched)
- Digital marketing and advertising agency hired. (we've seen their increased presence on FB, Instagram, and Twitter).
- Overhauled Website (just launched)
- New sales reps leading to more distributors (has gone well to date).
3/29 PR Update:
- CBD Iced Tea had officially launched. (confirmed what was stated in the previous shareholder update).
- 30,000 cans of the CBD Iced Tea and Coffee planned for initial rollout
- CHEXPO event lead to additional brand awareness
- Distributors in waiting!
- 2018 revenues exceeded $350K and Q1 2019 looking to exceed $100K without the additional product launches
4/4 Shareholder Update:
- Distributors (6) still lining up for samples
- S1 registration statement being filed. This leads to increased transparency into business model, capital spending, share structure updates. This is big.
- Divestiture of the 02 Breathe and One Utopia companies, which gets rid of waste and allows the company to strategically focus on their goal of being a full end to end beverage company. Frees up capital and human resources.
- Official HQ is now the 6,000sqft Blessed Bean location, likely fostering operational improvements.
In all, it's already shaping up to be a great 2019, now it all comes down to business plan execution. I've got my eye on a top line growth YoY growth rate at minimum of 10-25% without the new products. Then hopefully in the conservative low of 40% and potentially as much as 70%, which is completely dependent on how successful these new CBD products are.
It could be something, but more than likely its nothing at all. I just don't like when artificial buzz is created, as it doesn't do anything good for anyone.
Instead, I like to stay grounded in fact and what we see in Annual/Quarterly statements and what we see in Shareholder Update notes.
VATE is definitely on the right track. Hopefully these product launches will be the catalyst that really gets this ship into high gear - but the proof will be over these next couple quarters.
Until then, I'm sitting back and riding out these low levels.
You continue to be full of smoke. It's a disservice to the board when you make boisterous claims of 'massive news' coming and are in no position to back it up.
Of course though, whenever the next PR comes out, you can sit back and say "I told you so".
Right - because we should believe everything we see and hear on online investment club boards. He's full of smoke.
He knows just as much as the rest of us, which is only the information that is made publicly available. Making speculative posts like he did, doesn't do anyone any good.
@Luna Investments - still waiting for your prophesied big announcement from VATE. Oddly enough, hasn't shown.
I would agree no real dilution over the course of 2018, however, unless they continue to retire shares in 2019 - the dilution is already up 10% through the start of 2019.
Agreed and the dilution is rampant.
I'm long POTN, but they've got to get their act together in a big way to take this to the next level.