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Very good analysis. I agree
Preferred shares are getting destroyed
Symbol Name Last Change %Chg Open High Low Volume Time Notes Links
FNMA
Fannie Mae
2.0800
-0.0300
-1.42%
2.1100
2.1300
2.0600
1,452,900
09/11/20
FNMAS
Fannie Mae Pfd S
8.6300
-0.0700
-0.80%
8.5600
8.7000
8.5600
131,300
09/11/20
FNMAT
Federal Natl Pfd T
7.7300
-0.1800
-2.28%
7.9000
7.9500
7.7300
16,200
09/11/20
FNMAO
Fannie Mae Noncum G
12.9800
-0.2200
-1.67%
13.3400
13.3400
12.9250
10,600
09/11/20
FNMAG
Fannie Mae 5.375 I
14.0000
-0.2500
-1.75%
14.2000
14.2000
13.9500
6,500
09/11/20
FNMAP
Fannie Mae Pfd F
13.0000
-0.1500
-1.14%
13.1500
13.3500
13.0000
3,400
09/11/20
FNMAJ
Fannie Mae Pfd R
7.5800
+0.0300
+0.40%
7.4000
7.5900
7.3500
3,300
09/11/20
FNMAM
Fannie Mae 5.81 H
13.6200
-0.1800
-1.30%
13.9700
13.9700
13.5100
3,000
09/11/20
FNMAH
Federal Natl Mtg Pfd
7.0000
-0.1000
-1.41%
7.1500
7.1500
7.0000
2,700
09/11/20
FNMAL
Fed Natl Mtg Pfd M
13.5500
-0.3500
-2.52%
13.7500
13.7500
13.5500
1,100
09/11/20
I was thinking the same thing about Mnuchin
Junior Preferred are getting destroyed
http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2020/9/9/TPQGGVAUVTA.JPG">http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2020/9/9/TPQGGVAUVTA.JPG" />[/img]
For the commons, right before the 2007-2008 financial crisis;
Freddie Mac closed at $63.19 on 10/04/2007
Fannie Mae closed at $67.39 on 10/04/2007
Highest highs;
Freddie Mac at $74.20 on 12/26/2004
Fannie Mae at $89.375 on 12/26/2000
Conclusion
Fannie Mae was $4.20 higher than Freddie in 2007
Fannie Mae was $15.175 higher than Freddie Mac's highest high.
Once released, I believe Fannie Mae will be $20-30 more than Freddie Mac.
Minute 17:54 -- Bill Ackman talks about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-billionaire-bill-ackman-shares-his-thoughts-on-the-big-market-retreat-11599164769
What the link below tells me is that The Federal Housing Finance Agency is open to suggestions and it is listening to comments. hopefully they will hear from Ackman
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-will-delay-controversial-refinance-fee-2020-08-25
One major thing about getting a hedge is to lower the risk in another asset class will little or no correlation with each other. In this case Fannie and freddie either commons or preferred are highly correlated I hedging with one or another doesn't make any sense
I think you are right RumplePigSkin
Par would be good if possible.
Don't think that will go also with conversion.
Some people here think PS will get both par and then conversion. I don't think the government will be that generous and they will say it would be unfair for the taxpayer
Bill, Bruce and others big names in WS are buying Fannie and Freddie common and preferreds in small lots to avoid getting the price up, in order to keep positioning buying cheap. Down days are good for buying. Buy in an up trend only when there is a price correction below moving averages (200, 50)
Wish I had bought more in March when prices were really low.
Waiting to buy at 2.15but strong support at 2.16.
Cannot place orders on mils, just cents.
Next week should be a low value cycle - and month
Article posted FNMA and FMCC
Note: Paulson & Company is known to have a huge position in Fannie/Freddie (OTCQB:FNMA) (OTCQB:FMCC) although the details have not been disclosed.
hopefully, time to see some action there. waiting for the breakout
With Paulson's huge position in FNMA, common only, I wonder how many shares he owns with his family now that he closed his funds to the public.
This guy was Rambo, biggest winner back in 2008, more than Soros, Ackman, Cahn combined with one single short trade. now long. interesting
to avoid disillusionment, day trade
interesting.
could you cite the source
FNMA
Chart displays double Doji(++).
Same closing price last 3 days.
Breakout strategy;
Just wait, it is consolidating.
No aggressive movement yet.
Halved average volume, 2M today.
Wait for burst of momentum, + volume.
Trend is up.
Sellers cannot push it down, so it might favor longs.
Otherwise, short.
Fake-out. It matters where price position is.
Look for volatility expansion.
Ichimoku clouds
Chikou span = closing price.
Lead 1 and 2, Senkou Span A and B, below current price.
Industries
FNMA seems cyclical, it follows the market.
Counter-cyclical; Banks and Airlines/cruises
It's going to be hard at 2.22.
You can stagger 20k shares here and there whenever falls below EMA (200)
I think it is overvalued when compared to FNMA. By reading their financials, total sales, net revenue, EPS, etc., FNMA figures is many times that of FMCC. Market cap talks too.
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
Great link.
The file detail also displays the companies included in each industry.
FNMA is listed as;
Federal National Mortgage Association (OTCPK:FNMA) and the industry is the Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & Insurance).
This industry has 232 firms in the USA, with a current PE of 35.95, trailing PE of 83.
Really good multiples.
Shorted Workhorse at $17.50, covered at close for a nice 74 cents a share, bought extra FNMA with the profit at $2.24, up to open at $2.28.
Will be buying some GSE's preferreds, up on almost all series though not very liquid.
thank you MrFence
Based on official news articles (not what is posted in this unofficial board) the conversion might never happen, it seem it will be paid at most 80-90% par, otherwise it is considered double dipping, so it is not gonna happen (conversion + free ride on NYSE)
I would keep the name though.
dude if you are in Miami don't wear a mask. LOL ;)
I want that t-shirt
that's true, as a trading strategy we don't keep positions overnight, looking at overall trend, it is a bullish trend and good use of timing indicators is a good way to profit 5-10% daily, translating to Ks% on an annual basis. Once down, use opportunity to buy 20-50K chunks.
Goal is 1M shares. Profit immense
FNMA potential very promising. Good to buy now as penny stock.
Bullish due to Tenken-Sen line crossing over Kijun-Sen, along with the Chikou span below today's close, and the Ichimoku cloud is below today's close as well. With an EMA (200) reached and exceeded before retracing just below average and using typical banking and mortgage companies' P/E of 15-20, this stock could easily go up 10,000% once relisted on the NYSE.
Amazing volume, 50% above average. Preferred stock's volume followed FNMA rally but underperformed overall in % change and volume.
Symbol Name Last Change %Chg Open High Low Volume Time Notes Links
FNMA
Fannie Mae
2.2800
+0.1100
+5.07%
2.1400
2.4000
2.1300
6,990,000
08/17/20
FNMAG
Fannie Mae 5.375 I
14.7100
+0.1100
+0.75%
14.7100
14.7100
14.7100
1,100
08/17/20
FNMAM
Fannie Mae 5.81 H
14.0500
+0.0400
+0.29%
13.9500
14.0500
13.9500
5,400
08/17/20
FNMAO
Fannie Mae Noncum G
13.6500
+0.3900
+2.94%
13.6500
13.6500
13.6500
200
08/17/20
FNMAP
Fannie Mae Pfd F
13.2500
+0.0100
+0.08%
13.5000
13.5000
13.2500
1,200
08/17/20
FNMAJ
Fannie Mae Pfd R
7.9000
+0.2200
+2.86%
7.6600
7.9200
7.6600
12,600
08/17/20
FNMAS
Fannie Mae Pfd S
9.0600
+0.1900
+2.14%
8.8100
9.0800
8.8100
269,000
08/17/20
FNMFM
Fed Natl Mtg Pfd E
13.7200
+1.0700
+8.46%
13.7200
13.7200
13.7200
2,100
08/17/20
FNMFO
Fed Natl Mtg Pfd I
26,000.0000
unch
unch
26,000.0000
26,000.0000
26,000.0000
100
08/14/20
FNMAL
Fed Natl Mtg Pfd M
13.8000
+0.1500
+1.10%
13.7600
13.8000
13.7600
2,700
08/17/20
FNMAI
Fed Ntl Mtg Ser Q
7.4900
+0.0900
+1.22%
7.3500
7.4900
7.3500
1,200
08/17/20
FNMAN
Federal National Mortgage Association
14.0000
+0.8000
+6.06%
14.0000
14.0200
13.8300
8,400
08/17/20
FNMFN
Federal National Mortgage Association
14.3000
-0.0500
-0.35%
14.3000
14.3500
14.3000
2,900
08/14/20
FNMAH
Federal Natl Mtg Pfd
7.4000
+0.1500
+2.07%
7.2500
7.4000
7.1350
7,600
08/17/20
FNMAK
Federal Natl Pfd N
13.9000
+0.3000
+2.21%
13.6200
13.9000
13.6200
13,600
08/17/20
FNMAT
Federal Natl Pfd T
8.2000
+0.1400
+1.74%
8.0600
8.2000
8.0500
39,500
08/17/20
Once FNMA crosses over EMA 200 and NYSE relisting will put this stock in strong really, reaching $60-70. Positioning now
To be seen. the Ichimoku cloud on a 1 week timeframe shows leading span B below span A , green, expiring 8/31. Funny thing is chikou span is at closing price. would buy 250K shares if senkou span a crosses over span b
BETWEEN Monday & Tuesday next week,
FNMA will be at it's EMA(200) $2.50
Not a bad today but FNMA's EMA(200) still 6-7% higher than today's closing.
In 3 business days it should cross it, August 18
FNMA is in a Bullish Engulfing Pattern
The high today was $2.14, closing at $2.11. Tomorrow it could go 3-4% higher than today's high.
8/13 close at $2.22- 2.23
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/personal-finance/top-5-candlestick-patterns-traders-must-know-2361239.html
I hope news of the NWS being eliminated will be released on the anniversary date.
Great article, thanks for sharing.
I think dreamming on getting par AND / PLUS then getting pd converted to commons would be considered double dipping, double wining. This obviously won't happen. Nice to think about it and having the delusion of a desire become concrete. I think it will be one or the other.
The good series of preferred shares
Fannie Mae series E, M, and G.
Freddie Mac series B, G, L, M, and N.
https://www.timelessinvestor.com/2017/12/22/conversion-of-preferred-stocks-of-gse/
Feeling the same way
Technical Analysis; Bullish Divergence confirmed. Money Flow Index indicator at 70 and Volume down while prices down. Price reversal expected.
by numbers
https://247wallst.com/banking-finance/2020/07/13/why-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-privatizations-are-still-on-track/
Analysts at Nomura/Instinet have issued new research on the second-quarter earnings of Fannie and Freddie that are substantially higher than the firm’s prior estimates. Instinet raised its core earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Fannie Mae from $0.19 to $0.41 and its EPS estimate for Freddie Mac from $0.16 to $0.38.
The basis for the higher estimates is expected strong top-line results combined with lower credit costs. Instinet calculates the potential upside on Fannie Mae stock at just over 125% from a closing price Thursday of $2.22 and a price target of $5.00. The firm rates the shares a Buy.
FNMA is a much better company than FMCC. So weird it is FMCC is trading higher than FNMA.
I expect that once volume picks up due to smart money it will reverse. volume super low on FNMA right now.
Look back at 2008
Regulators prepared to work with common and preferred stock shares
U.S. Feds announce takeover of mortgage giants
The Federal Reserve and other federal banking regulators said in a joint statement Sunday that "a limited number of smaller institutions" have significant holdings of common or preferred stock shares in Fannie and Freddie, and that regulators were "prepared to work with these institutions to develop capital-restoration plans."
https://www.dailyindependent.com/news/local_news/u-s-feds-announce-takeover-of-mortgage-giants/article_be78fa40-b94a-5b67-890a-67a18069a0d9.html