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doubtful a recreational initiative is passed in florida to allow an all out frenzy as you describe. Doubtful they would allow massive unchecked outdoor grows and processing facilities run rampant to support the amount of 10000 locations you suggest. Doubtful Florida allows cross border suppliers to supply said 1000's of locations exploding after recreational is passed.
Recreational will come online, but it will come online with many limitations, you can bet on that. The state isn't just going to flip flop from a strict, vertically integrated, controlled model. To an irresponsible unmanaged or unregulated mess, especially after the vape scare. Years and years down the road anything is possible, but most certainly not in 2020, or 2021 lol.
Meanwhile Trulieve will continue stacking cash, expanding, and becoming the go too brand. For when Rec hits, and for when Rec regulations lax.
One of the best calls they’ve had. I tried taking as many notes as I could lol was on my phone so could only text so fast. Will consolidate them and post here shortly if someone else doesn’t beat me too it lol.
Livelongandprofit. Just google “Trulieve wins lawsuit” and you will find plenty of articles on their dispensary cap increase. This was news from way back in February.
I did lol I’m picking up what your putting down.
Kf is correct imo.
Nowhere has it specifically said SAFE allows listing of US MSO’s. Only “coulds” which is other words for idk lol. SAFE would be outstanding. But we need either a bill that specifically states allowing listing on major exchanges , or another bill that desceds the drug.
FY19 guidance is beat. Excited to see by how much they beat it.
44.5+57.9+70.7+70.7 = 243.8M
Booyaaa
Trulieve will have its day my guy. Been here since the beginning and will ALWAYS hold my core position. Can’t wait for the day we can BS on here and talk about the 9$ days haha.
Lol. I don’t think the post was idiotic. Just listing a concern the wrong way, that doesn’t legitimately relate to Trulieves business.
Yeaaa I haven’t digested the whole release yet. I’ll need to analyze it and take notes for a couple days and listen to the call. The 40m Holyoke deal might not even be 40m, just whatever costs it takes will be reimbursable essentially.
Also important to note for those uninformed, the referenced RICO case from rigorousgains post, has nothing to do with Trulieves business. Which has been brought up time and time again.
Keep in mind the 40m leaseback in hoyolk was “up to 40m” reimbursable based off conversion costs and such. Wasn’t a 40m cash injection.
I was thinking 65-68m, was really expecting 68. 70.7m is outstanding, exactly how I like it, beating my expectations lol.
Q4 is going to be insane.
Drew.
I agree, Next Q will be awesome if those flower figures keep on going up, sale on concentrate right now too, I can see them trying to bump those THC mgs numbers up. Expect 40 Million+ mgs this week.
Trulieve is stock I’m pretty passionate in. Not just because I’m a big investor, but also because I believe in what they are doing. That passion keeps me on top of it.
However, IF they started doing the wrong thing, or making moves I believe to be wrong. I would have no problem letting you all know it lol
TRENDI, if you looked at his posts. He has made his personal forecast plenty of times on Q3. Mine is 65 - 68m
“MOST” of Florida. 50% of 1.2 Billion is 600 Million dollars worth of Revs. From ONE state. We aren’t even talking Rec, which would blow that 2021 state revs forecast out the water. Massachusetts, roughly the same forecast between rec and medical. Just 25% of that is 300 Million in revs. From TWO states that’s almost a Billion worth of revs.
Wait and see how powerful a REAL brand and effective wholesale platform is. And watch those who are spread thin, struggle to maintain an effective brand, Quality assurance program, or profitable operation. Many will sink or be acquired. While Trulieve could very possibly attain close to a Billion in Revs from its “Small” moves, by end of 2021.
Vertical integration is our friend with our superior infrastructure lol but even if it ended and went horizontal, we would still be superior wholesalers and also cost effective by maintaining our already established vertical integration.
If Trulieve was able to manage putting out enough flower to lower price significantly within the FL market. It would likely kill competition, because they wouldn’t have the infrastructure to manage enough product to keep stores stocked. Losing customers to Trulieve, and becoming not economically feasible. Putting some out of business or leaving others limited in the locations they can operate.
Those OMMU figures are outstanding. Another record week on Flower. Wowzers.
Now that’s what I’m talking about! Pow pow
Awesome day. Bears gonna swoop in right at the end and try to pull it down of course lol but awesome day.
She does what she does, no worries here lol
Yea, CGC gonna get hammered. And will drag plenty of others down with it lol. Let’s see how today plays out.
Unfortunately, no matter how old the news, or what facts are presented. People will continuously bring it up, especially when the price is doing well, until he is exonerated or convicted. And the trial is over with.
Even then, people will bring it up months later lol.
That would be interesting. According to their website, they have 22 locations in Colorado. We will see I guess.
It’s Oorah haha and Semperrr
Let’s get it!
Shortage was apparently due to buildings coming online a little later then expected per Kim on Twitter. However, during the 39th opening, she stated to expect seeing a steady grow week over week of available flower. Which so far, has been true. We are close to hitting 7,000!
Numbers like that continue, along with steady THC dispensed, and Q4 will be amazing.
I wouldn’t worry about it. QoverQ % increase could just be less then last Q. Using conservative pricing on grams dispensed over the period and factoring in Connecticut revenues, I’m betting 65-68m for Q3. It could very well breach the 70mil. But I’m betting Q4 will be most impressive, and what will get us to beat guidance by 5-10mil.
44.5+57.9+68 = 170.4mil. + 81m(rough guess for Q4) = 251mil for FY19
Can’t wait to get more clarity next Monday on where we are headed.
#39 Wesley Chapel. Coming soon
Liking those OMMU figures. Setting weekly records on flower
Watched Kim Rivers recent presentations. Not a whole lot an informed investor wouldn’t already know but worth the watch.
Something that peaked my interest, is she stated the average customer spends 142-145$ not sure if she was referring to CAD or USD.
July - 192,386 customers
Aug - 203,692
Sep - 214, 827
If she meant USD, and every patient above bought medicine for that month. Would equal 86.7m for Q3 lol I don’t think that’s correct. If it was, that’d be 50% increase Q2 - Q3. Which would be insane lol
If she meant CAD, or around 107USD... with Connecticut revs, around 65.4 - 67.8m, which seems more in line lol
However, she did state Q3 ER will be middle of November. So we will see!
Funman.
So let’s say the average dispensary in Florida brings 7m a year in 2020. If we enter 2020 with 44 Dispensaries, that would be an estimated 308m in Florida revs from 1Jan2020 going forward.
They will add more dispensaries of course. Let’s say 6 by beginning or end of Q2-2020. That’s 50(7) = 350m.
It’s really hard to say, there is just a lot of unknown variables. Like how the “wholesale” platform will play out in Massachusetts, and what kind of revs will it bring. Will they open their max stores in Massachusetts? Or just 3 Medical facilities, and wholesale the rest, until they can establish a larger cultivation footprint for their rec stores.
I need to do more DD on Connecticut and how the licensing works regarding multiple stores, and if anything has changed. But I expect greater then 9m from that location in 2020. Maybe 11-15m.
Now say Trulieves average dispensary puts out an average 8m a year in 2020, due to increased cultivation capacity, then Florida alone using 44-50 locations would amount to between 352-400m.
This is all wild speculation without any real worth, we have so much to figure out in the next few months. However, personally, I think some cards are gonna be shown soon that will more then likely lead to updated guidance for 2020 in Q12020 earnings. Wouldn’t be surprised to see half a billion, or very close to half a billion achieved in 2020, largely due to Florida operations becoming more and more efficient as their crops catch up to each other and really come online.
Again, me just spitballing and rambling lol will be fun to see 2020 game plan get revealed as time goes on.
Right? Lol it’s not far fetched as long as that O/S stays low. Lets get 1+ Billion in revs lol
Well, I’ll have to do some more digging. But I do know, that Kim did state in the past, that dispensaries bring around 7mil a year on average. 7(31) = 217mil in revs to kind of draw a picture regarding just Florida. Add in the additional dispensary locations picking up pace with the cultivation increase. And the additional few mil from Connecticut.
You get a a little picture of how Management calculated guidance of 220-240m that will likely be beat eoy.
According to Form 7’s for months July-Sep.
30 stores operated as of 31July
31 stores operated as of 31Aug
35 stores operated as of 30Sep.
June Form 7 States 29 operated.
So based off that information, without looking back at every news release. It was 5-6 stores opened during Q3.
I stated personally earlier that I’d be surprised to see the 8’s again. But with this news it’s hard to say. I can say though I’m a buyer all day in the 8’s
Im still waiting to see what they’ve been up to in Cali lol I have a suspicion they can’t give updates until the state approves that last 1%.
I understand what your trying to say or debate, but I think you are structuring it incorrectly. Abandon is a strong word. And aggressive expansion in regards to cultivation and processing will continue in FL regardless of whether or not we acquire in two more states. Dispensaries will follow.
Let’s see how this raise pans out, and then talk funding. I’m super interested to see how this is played out.
Nobody would be “abandoning” anything by entering two more states. How long ago did we enter Cali and still waiting on the meager 1% to be acquired lol Connecticut is, for now, peanuts in comparison to Massachusetts or Florida. So currently our only real, big money drivers for 2020... that we know of, is Massachusetts and Florida. Both expected to be Billion dollar markets by 2022.
Two more states, under the right conditions and for a reasonable price, would not be irresponsible in my opinion.
Oh yea. I love buying fear.