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Well Permit: One large step for Treaty, one small step for Treaty investors. But progress is in step. That's the main thing. As I posted three weeks ago, expect news regularly over the next four weeks or so. It's happening. And it will continue.
Get ready.
dlog, I'm Blind to the tux. But I do have a good seeing eye dog that gets me around. And you say, ten years. Wow, that's a long time. Didn't know TECO had been around that long. On the other hand, I have been accumulating shares, over about two years or so. And the best is still to come. Since the Treaty home office is in New Orleans, maybe that would be a good place for all investors to get together to celebrate. I hear they throw some pretty mean parties down there. Get ready.
dlog, Treaty's just warming up. As Dizzy would say, "you aint seen nutin yet." You might have a couple of weeks to accumulate shares. Then.... Get ready.
Treaty Potential:
Now that Treaty has successfully completed and is producing 18bbls of oil per day in west Texas from the McComas, they are setting up for drilling two additional wells. Keep in mind that these wells are within other wells, so the opportunity for continued production similar to the McComas should be about the same. Consider this. Treaty has a twenty well program funded. If they hit even 18 of those wells at even only an average of 12 bbls per day, that gives them 216 bbls per day of production. The company only needs about 125 bbls per day to cover expenses, therefore they will be cashflow positive with those wells in place. They anticipate completing thos wells probably within the next 8-9 months, and possibly sooner. BUT, that's not all in west Texas. There are dozens of wells that are getting reworked and even if production from them only averages say 1.5 bbls per day, it could easily move Treaty overall production from west Texas alone to about 300bbls per day by this time next year. BUT, if production averages increase, Treaty could easily be above 400bbls to possibly 500bbls per day from west Texas within the same time frame. Then when you take into consideration that they will also be drilling in east Texas for oil and gas, you begin to get the understanding of the potential for Teaty Texas, and then you have to factor in production from Belize, and north Louisiana, of which those wells will be reworked and brought online early next year and production from them could run into the hundreds of barrels (seems like I read the number of about 60 wells there). So, with more oil production, more revenue, and more potential, Treaty is going to be a nightmare for the shorters as they are betting on Treaty's demise, and quite frankly, that possibility has left the station. Explosive action could be in the making. Get ready.
Bull, wish I could go with you on that trip. By the way, would you email me at Blindinvestor@aol.com with your phone number? Thanks
Oriley, there should be some news on TECO's Belize wells pretty soon. Work is underway for their completion and in fact management is hopeful they will both be producing before yearend. And for everyone's info, others besides TECO management have been to Belize and confirmed oil for TECO. Get ready.
Bull I would expect the McComas well to come online sometime next week. I still believe if they can produce somewhere between 18-20 bbls per day it will be good news for Treaty. Any volume greater than that will just be gravy. After all, as you posted, they have 20 more wells to drill out in west Texas alone. And on top of the new well drills, they are reworking dozens more to improve their production. Hopefully they can drill two more new wells before the end of December. Slowly the company is beginning to move it forward on their production. But there may be even bigger news than that coming.
jrt111, if you consider you lease per acre value of only $500, then Treaty with over 2,000,000 leased acres has valuable acreage worth over $1,000,000,000 (one billion dollars). That's equivalant to over $1 per share. So your premis is right, but your commnets about company value are wrong, just by your own stated acreage values.
Aptly posted TheCEO. Months ago I posted that Treaty was about seven months behind their proposed schedule from last year. In reality they are about twelve months behind now. However, as in a lot of businesses, things are turning around and it appears that four significant things are apparent in the current report.
1. Treaty assets are increasing.
2. Treaty drilling activity is increasing as is the rate of workover wells being completed and brought back online.
3. Future opportunity is still there both in Texas and Belize.
4. Treat is now on target to hit 100bbls per day in west Texas alone by the end of this year. That in itself will get them close to cashflow positive for normal operations.
PLUS:
The PR mentions again that the funding is in place for the future drilling of wells in west Texas. Treaty has already PR'd that funding is also in place for more drilling in east Texas.
In addition, Treaty is now in the process of locating the third and fourth well sites in Belize, with expectation of drilling the third this year, or within the next six weeks. And they state they will drill the fourth Belize well the first of next year. Things are finally beginning to come together. Get ready.
DTL, all good points in your post. However, consider this. It doesn't seem to matter what TECO management does, there seems to always be posters discounting what they PR or telling how they might do it better. So with that in mind, if you were TECO management would you simply sit back and get things done in a more silent manner instead of always PR's everything and then taking flak of some kind from posters, who you would normally consider to be investors, but evidently are probably not in some instances. As you noted, the 10Q will be out this week and it might surprise some of the MM's who are usually betting that a BB company will not make it. TECO on the other hand has a two year record of pulling itself through and now should be reporting revenues of 500% to perhaps 700% better than 2d quarter. So quarter over quarter should represent a nice gain. And fourth quarter should be a continuance of improvement as well as other opportunities coming online. Get ready.
Understand this about TECO management. A lot of the information that they PR'd over the last year or so was information given to them by people in the field, some of which were even involved in acquisitions. Therefore, not all of the information had been through full due diligence and therefore some proved to be very inaccurate. Future releases of information, including whatever the company PR's regarding their current operations to coincide with their 10Q will be a lot more accurate and will include a lot more due diligence and possibly even some auditing. They recognize their misstatements, to quote a phrase from the Roger Clemmons trial in DC, and they understand the light it has put them in. However, some new folks are now in position to assist them, ie., one being the announcement of Warren as the new CFO, and these folks will provide some more insightfulness into the positions and PR's that Treaty gets into and subsequent alerts to the investors and the public. My guess is that Treaty's 10Q will be announced this week so everyone might expect to be brought up to date on what is happening for the company on all fronts. Get ready.
kanola, according to Treaty management, it should only take about 125bbls per day to cover costs, or the equivalent revenue value with any gas income thrown in. Keep up the good posts. Investors could be surprised by Christmas with tidings of great joy.
TECO Prediction: As I've posted a three or four weeks ago, I still think TECO will have much better revenues than some posters on this board. I think TECO will have revenues at least 500% greater than the 2nd quarter. That would be a nice improvement with what all has been going on. Of course it's possible that the increase of quarter over quarter could be even higher. As for the fourth quarter, they still need to get the McComas flowing, but they should have that done within a few days in my opinion. If they can get it producing somewhere between 18 to 20 bbls per day, that would be good. Remember they have several more wells to drill on that lease and they have the funds already committed for the drilling. And don't forget that they continue to rework dozens of other wells that will add to production. All of this is a real positive for the company. And they still have the Madeley to bring into production, possibly with gas and oil. That would be another positive. Then they also have Lakeshore which has continued to produce. In addition, in east Texas, they have funds committed to drilling new wells as soon as the Madeley has been brought online. As for Belize, they should be in the final stages of getting those first two wells ready for production. I know I've posted two weeks before, but in fact, it should be happening in December. Finally, there should be positive news from Belize to make a nice Green Christmas. As for other projects, don't forget about northern Louisiana where TECO has numerous wells to rework and bring back into production as soon as maintenance is completed. All in all, progress is being made on four fronts. Get ready.
TECO's value is well supported. My brother-in-law recently received $4500 for the lease rights to his 100 acres for a drilling company. That amounts to $45 per acre. TECO has well over 3,000,000 acres of leased lands. Just taking the 3,000,000 acres at the same value of $45 equals a cap value of $135,000,000. Even a 50% discount to $22.50 per acre would still give TECO a value of over $67,000,000. Heck, if you just gave them a $10 per acre value, TECO would still be worth over $30,000,000.
Drazz, you need to read between the lines of what Bull is posting. To confirm what he says from my view is dead on. After much beefing about what has transpired in TECO for the past year, things are getting better. Unfortunately what you have is too much listening and believing on TECO management's part from everyone in the field and not enough hands on inspection and absolute timelines to follow if at all possible. And far too many mistakes made in the field. HOWEVER, as Bull says, TECO management has made some changes. There is now some more oversight, even though in my opinion, it needs to be a lot more, but all in all, things are turning around and beginning to happen. Previously all production numbers tossed out by Reid or anyone at the company came from those in the field, and those in the field were not producing as they should. Corrections are being made, as well as understanding by management that they need to be more hands on. TECO is too small of a company for it's officers to sit in the ivory tower and assume that what they are being told is always correct. Get out and see for themselves. After all, it's TECO's management that is responsible for the company, not the field operators, no matter what position they may hold. But keep this in mind, it's not only the TECO investors that have suffered the time loss of the operations, it's TECO's managers as well since they also own company shares. Having said that, it it now understood by them to make things happen. I think you will see an improved 10Q for revenues, and the opportunities for continued improvement are recognized by management and a timeline gameplan is in place. Beginning next week you should begin seeing TECO news just about every other week, and it will portend to be excellent for investors. Now, pick out that turkey and get ready for Thanksgiving. And while I predicted a Green Christmas last year, and in fact we had our ups and downs, this year, we could see a very nice Green Christmas.
TECO Summary of Major Events
Keep in mind that about two years ago or so Treaty Energy was pretty much a public shell. So let's review their ACCOMPLISHMENTS
1. Created a JV with Princess to be a 50/50 partner in 2,000,000 acres in Belize.
2. Have drilled two wells in Belize which are now being reentered and perfed and acidized for production. (Should be about two weeks)
3. Acquired three leases in west Texas with wells to be reworked and new wells to be drilled.
4. Drilled the McComas well in west Texas which should come on line by end of next week or first of the following week.
5. Have reworked some of the older wells and production is steadily climbing as each comes online with production.
6. Has generated a drilling fund for west Texas that will allow Treaty to drill about 20 more new wells there over the next 14 months.
7. Treaty acquired three leases in east Texas with some production and the opportunity to reenter the Madeley well horizontally. This well could produce oil and gas. In addition, the leases allow for additional wells to be drilled.
8. Treaty acquired leases in north Louisiana and partnered for reworks and new drilling.
9. Treaty has acquired drilling rigs and equipment for their operations.
That's a lot of accomplishment for a micro-cap public company in two years.
Mike Update! Mike has been moved from the hospital ICU to a rehabilitation facility as of Monday late. He is doing really good, but obviously has a long way to go in his recovery. Understandably with an aorta closure, there is loss of blood circulation to the extremeties and therefore he is having to work muscles in his legs and arms to regain better circulation. He anticipates getting out of rehab in about another week from now. And he extends his appreciation to all for their prayers. Some of you may know that Mike lives in New Jersey, but while some neighbors suffered house damage, his made it through pretty good and they even got power back this past weekend so they were only without power for one week. Stay tuned. And his parting comment was GO TECO!
Guys, as they say in Texas, you ain't seen nothing yet. The band is just warming up. We still have news on the McComas, Madeley and Belize to come in, and it will. And who knows what else Treaty may be into? Today's PR is another example of Treaty management "Getting It Done" and it all will offer more opportunity for Treaty investors. Hey, even a blindinvestor finds a good stock like Treaty, once in awhile.
Mike Follow-up. Spoke to Mike this morning. He's doing fine and already feels better. Probably with better blood circulation he will be feeling a lot better with a little healing time. He expects to be moved from ICU possibly today but tomorrow for sure. It seems like he will have another week in the hospital as he is obviously very weak. The nurse already has him sitting up, and probably in another day will have him standing, and then walking around the room and then the hospital halls. He didn't mention how the food was, but we know in a hospital it has to be a creation by a master chef. Told him not to worry about celebration as sometime in the spring I would come up and visit and bring some Texas champagne, ie. Lone Star. Had to tell him not to laugh as that's not good for chest stitches. But good news, he's fine, and as he said, I'll BE BACK. Damn, I know I've heard that somewhere before.
By gollly investtoski, I think you've got it. Pretty good job of describing the whole situation with the first two wells. And again on the third etc. wells, which are destined now to be down to 4000' or perhaps even deeper. My info indicates we should have some news on Belize within the next couple of weeks. Hopefully it will be good news, and anything around the 50bbls per day from each well is good. The math is, on taking say $80 per barrel, two wells totaling 100bbls per day equals $8000 per day. That amounts to $240,000 per month. Remember Treaty recovers the cost of the wells before splitting revenues. So take out the GOB's share of 10%, that leaves about $215,000. And each well has been estimated to cost somewhere between $250,000 to $300,000. Take the higher number and that totals $600,000 costs. So effectively, it takes about three months of revenues to cover the costs of the two wells. That's a good payback time for Treaty. Now, keep in mind that from that point they only get 50% less any royalties but let's say that amounts to a net of about 30% on the low side. That equates to about $60,000 per month of profit from the two wells after payback for drilling, etc. And of course it assumes no decline in production, which you should probably factor in about a 20% decline per year which is what other companies in Belize have experienced. Now that you have these numbers, remember that Treaty has mentioned that they could drill up to somewhere around 80 wells. If they did with success rates of even only 70%, that would give them about 55 or more wells producing say an average of only 40 bbls per day at only a 30% net (this could be a good bit low) but they still would be making about $50,000 per day net or about $1,500,000 NET per Month. NOW, remember that Treaty has only surveyed about 20,000 acres of the 200,000 onshore acres, and they have not surveyed any of the 1,800,000 offshore acres. So their potential in Belize becomes very large with future development. And that's just Belize.
Right dloggold. He is scheduled for 8AM, which then the operation should be underway. I spoke with him yesterday about 4:30PM his time and he seemed to be in good spirits. Challenged him to a game of golf the first of May so he can have a target date to get back in good shape. He just laughed and said "you're on." So now the wait and anticipation that eveyone will go well. He's a tough boot, so he should do OK. And he's got all of us backing him on this ordeal. As the saying goes, "keep the faith."
Poison, please show me how you came to the conclusion that TECO is involved. Nothing specific is indicated regarding TECO, is there? If so, lay it out specifically, otherwise your post regarding other companies should be deleted from this message board which is for Treaty Energy Corp only.
The following is the potential Treaty offers bweginning today and out over the next 24 months. McComas is coming online as Treaty management projected. The Madeley is being reentered horizontally and expects to resume production as Treaty management projected. Belize wells are being completed as Treaty management projected. It is apparent that Treaty management doesn't take too kindly for some posters as they have filed suits against some. Therefore it doesn't surprise me that Treaty may not PR everything they are doing until it shows positive results. Therefore, those on the short side will pay a penalty, and those on the long side will reap the benefits of Treaty management's positive actions over the past few months. In addition to the McComas, the Lakeshore, the Madeley, and in Belize the San Juan #1 and the San Juan #2, Treaty has the following that is in play:
1. Treaty has about 60 wells to work over and is actively doing so in west Texas
2. Treaty has about 20 new wells with capital funding in place to drill in west Texas and will begin shortly
3. Treaty has about 16 new wells with capital funding to drill in east Texas and will begin that program shortly
4. Treaty has about 85 wells to drill in Belize and will shortly begin a ten well program that has been approved by the government of Belize.
Finally, it's time for investors to get excited about the company's opportunity. And what is pointed out above is only a beginning. Are ya buckeled in and ARE YA READY?
Uh Oh! Treaty has oil! Some folks are going to really like this development. On the other hand, some might start wringing and cringing because they're short. As the Beverly Hillbillies song went, "up from the ground come a bubbling crude." Or something like that. Do ya have those Treaty certs safely secured? Are you buckeled up? Get ready!
An obvious situation. Since Mike is now unable to handle the PR's it is probable that whatever news Treaty has might be delayed a couple of days or so until other arrangements can be made for handling their information. In light of that, expect some news later next week or the following week for sure, as both the east Texas drilling is in progress on the Madeley, and the west Texas McComas is being completed. It's just my opinion but I think anything over 100bbls per day from the Madeley will be a good report, and anything over 18bbls to 20bbls from the McComas will be a good report. And as for Belize, progress is being made regarding the completion of the San Juan #1 and San Juan #2. While it may take a couple more weeks, I would expect news on that front within a couple of weeks as well. Then remember the 3d quarter 10Q should show a lot more revenue than the 2d quarter. And there could be more news than that. Get ready for a nice ride. For sure it's been a long time and we tend to forget some things that are necessary. So, as a reminder, store your TECO certs in a safe coat pocket and
buckle up!
URGENT READ! Just talked with Mike Mulshine yesterday afternoon. Unfortunately it's been discovered that he has a blocked aorta and the doctors are going to operate today. As some of you may know, this is an extremely serious operation as in many situations like his, he probably will need to be placed on life support etc. So, today, please take a moment and say a prayer for Mike and his family that he comes through this tough ordeal. Thanks.
LSU, keep in mind that if a well produces even 10 bbls a day, it takes over two weeks to produce enough for a truck load. Therefore the production actually sold, which is what is reported by trcc, could be only for a small portion of the actual total production depending on how the weeks and pickups occur for any particular month. Expect more in September.
I've heard Lakeshore is still producing. In fact, still producing about 10-12 bbls per day.
So a 400% increase in revenue over 2d Q is what you are projecting. Gee, that's pretty good. But wait! I'm projecting more than that. I think we could see at least 500% to possibly 700%. We'll know in about three weeks or so. Either way, the company is continuing to improve, right? And either way, it means the company is continuing to produce oil, right? Gee, makes me wonder why some continue to post, no oil. Guess they need some help in understanding that sales means oil to sell, and sales means revenue. Can you try to get them to understand tdbowieknife?
THIS IS THE WEEK: #2 More Changes? More News? Might be time to break the piggy bank and scrounge for whatever change you have and get some more Treaty shares. A flood of news fixing to come down the pipe. Even Bull is going to have to take a break reading all the news. Should be coming from East Texas, West Texas, Belize and who knows where else. But it's fixing to rain news. Got your shares? Are ya ready? Over the next four weeks, which yes, will include the 10Q, you will have so much news you'll be wondering if it's not time for Treaty management to take a small break. BE READY!
THIS IS IT: Week 2 - More changes? Get ready! Treaty gearing up to be a big gig. Those who don't have shares will wonder why they didn't buy. Those who did buy will wonder why they didn't buy more. Yep, gearing up for a BIG DIG. Are ya ready?
Picture as I see it. The shorters may be laughing in their beer right now thinking they've won a game. However, there is enough money behind Treaty now that it is only a matter of time before everything they have touted becomes real, including showing some revenue in their 3d 10Q. What is really happening is an opportunity for some to capture shares at an unbelievable value for the surge that is going to come. I'd be about 99% prepared for that, instead of the other way. This is the week of some news, and it started with the announcement of a full CFO position for a super qualified director and now CFO for Treaty. This is just the beginning. Get ready. More news next week.
THIS IS IT WEEK!. Should be some news today.
Correct. No refinery in Belize, yet. Who knows, it might be an opportunity for Treaty.
A tanker doesn't normally hold 200bbls. Try 160 to 170. I know that's not much difference from 200, but it could be 20% and over five loads, that's another load that cannot be figured in. As for the oil production without gas, NO. The company has to pay royalties for any gas that is flared, even though they don't reveive any income for it. So, it's a loss to the company. Treaty is trying to maximize income without adding to the loss column.
Treaty Revenues; OK, I'm betting that Reid probably knows what he's talking about. Therefore, I'm betting that Q3 revenues are at least a 500% increase over Q2. And I do believe that Q4 will be at least another 500% increase over Q3. Anyone want to put up a beer on this one? If I win, it'll cost you a Lone Star, the King of Beers in Texas, and at one time the National King of Pilsner Beers in the US. As for any other poster's choice, I really don't care, as I'm betting on winning this one.
Why is anyone an investor of Treaty if they are so disenchanted with them? There are thousands of other companies that are publicly traded. Why does anyone invest in Treaty, and then continuously air negative comments about them? I have never stayed in a stock that I was uncomfortable with. If I disagreed with what was going on, I simply sell and move on. Some have continually posted about activity that has happened several years ago regarding Treaty officers. OK. Have you ever checked to see if for instance everyone connected with IHUB, or other investor posting message boards have had any officers who have also experienced some situations that were related to the SEC or other government agencies? Some of us are here as investors and believe there is opportunity for Treaty to make it big. Someday they may. There are hundreds of other public companies, and even many on IHUB, that are all trying to make it big some day. Love'em or hate'm. Buy'm or sell'm. Remember, THIS IS THE WEEK FOR TECO.
Treaty's position confirmed in Belize with Princess Petroleum now having been awarded an iron-clad contract, including the offshore leases. Treaty, with it's contract as operations partner with Princess, does in fact have a 2,000,000 acre lease concession confirmed with the government of Belize, in spite of any legal wrangling by Oceana. Period.
SIMPLE REMINDER... For every sell, there is a buyer. Keep in mind it takes two sides to a transaction. Obviously, anyone selling today has their purpose, and Obviously, anyone buying today sees a lot of opportunity at these prices. As you can see from the chart and transaction history today, the price for transactions is fairly narrow. And ANOTHER SIMPLE REMINDER... THIS IS THE WEEK!! The smart investors are buying today...period.