The Titan Website updated the 'Corporate Presentation' sometime in the last month and it speculates that the available market for the Sport system is about 12 Billion in system sales and 3.5 Billion in annual Procedure and Service Revenue. If Titan can secure 10% of the available market, that's 1.2 Billion in system sales and 350 million in annual revenue. I imagine that Titan would be happy to hit those numbers 5 years after FDA approval. So that's a mature commercialization resulting in approx 450million in annual revenue. Using Intuitive's current ratio of market cap to revenue, assume 500 million outstanding shares for 2024 Titan, and you have a potential 2024 Titan market cap of 6.75 Billion and a share price of 13.50.
If Titan uplists and institutional investors believe in the Titan story and the potential earnings, then I bet Titan hits a market cap of 300-400 upon FDA submission, 600-800 upon approval, and surpasses 1 Billion upon successful commercial launch with limited sales. I'm using Transenterix and Mazor as a rough basis for those multiples. So depending on how many outstanding shares, I would guess those market caps translate into $1+ after submission (Q3-2018), $2+ after approval(Q2-2019), $3+ after initial sales(Q4-2019).
This assessment is based on Titan hitting every milestone,successful financing, Sport living up to early reviews, wild speculation, questionable math and half-baked assumptions on my behalf. I have always believed in Titan tech and think McNally is the business savvy savior the company needed. I am holding until the story plays out or the narrative changes.(For the record, my wild guess is Titan is acquired prior to commercialization, after FDA approval, for about 2 Billion.)