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Permits down...means next month's numbers are going down.
Housing starts are not forward looking.
Look at your own article and see permits down.
That is forward looking.
Point is there is no housing supply shortage.
There is an inflation problem that has made housing unattainable.
Thereby limiting the amount of existing homes yo hit the Market.
Builders don't stop building for fun...and as long as you can afford it...they don't do it for price either.
You think houses go up becuase supply somehow disappears...and I'm telling you it is a direct result of Powell inflation.
Cost is too high...time to deflate.
That isn't a raise in your pocket, or equity on your home.
It's the amount of dollars needed to do the same activity increasing with inflation.
Is it really a surprise that houses are up 15% and PPI is already 10%?
Only recently your wages have not risen to match inflation.
Houston we have a problem.
Doesn't matter.
The rate of appreciation matches the rate of inflation.
No...inflation and deflation only work one way.
You can't lower the cost or something without lowering what it is worth.
Don't let Powell's word salad fool you.
It's just a fancing way of saying he needs to deflate the economy.
Historically houses have appreciated at the rate of inflation.
Which means they will decrease at the rate of deflation.
Again...just math. No pointed articles.
What we housing prices then?
Imagine when rates hit 7%...
The guys building houses.
Homebuilders' sales expectations drop dramatically, as mortgage rates soar
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/homebuilders-sales-expectations-drop-dramatically-as-mortgage-rates-soar.html
Just that supply is driven by some intangible ability to buold houses.
Lack of supply that's good.
Lack of affordability really.
Make new house 300k..see how many existing homes hit the market.
Houses are built as needed.
Therefore the supply can't be finite.
There is a lack of supply of existing houses...because that is finite...but that's only because no one can buy new.
PS...that 15% number...
Used to be 20%
There is no such thing as low housing supply.
There is a such thing as new housing affordability.
Builders have been underbuilding for years our of necessity...not desire.
February home sales fall far more than expected, as mortgage rates rise
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/18/february-home-sales-fall-far-more-than-expected-as-mortgage-rates-rise.html
Chart me the other time thr FED bought 4T in mortgage securities.
It's math.
There are only so many people that can afford a house at X price.
Once your price point exceeds X, the market share you have available to you decreases.
When market share decreases....so does volume.
Holy crap.
Inventory issue is cost of building.
A builder will build you 20 houses tomorrow if you can afford it.
Home builders can't raise prices anymore because they know where price points are.
No one buys a new house = no old houses for sale.
There is no such thing as a housing shortage.
Just build more...but home builders know that doesn't mean selling more.
Stupid marekt pricing has crushed your raise, crushed future earnings, made new houses unattainable, and yielded your savings account useless.
Not sure what everyone is rooting for...
Signing off.
Not sure why everyone argues you can't time the market...while trying to time the market.
I'm not timing the market. I just sold inflation and wait for deflation.
Housing terminal velocity tells you if there is no deflation...it won't matter anyway.
All future generations will live in pods stacked like sardines.
I'm saying it's a bubble.
I'm not saying when it will burst.
Just that it will.
And interest rate hikes and slumping housing sales are the canary in the goldmine.
Why is everyone mad at me?
I didn't create a housing bubble.
I just read an article from builders that says you are misinformed.
SPY is just a number.
Think anyone is relying on a pennt stock to hedge their 401k?
How do those dollars compare to the 10% erosion of your entire life savings in the last 3 months?
Houses will be there soon, so real estate will not be a fall back, unless you sold...are selling now.
You can't trade against larger losses in larger money.
Don't know if you read that right.
Building is slowly dramatically.
They don't need stuff.
Stay tuned.
What's a SPY? Who cares.
It has dramatic economical impacts.
No one can afford to buy or build houses...and people think prices/asset values are going up?
Ok...but I'll go with history for a $1000 Alex.
What do you think happens to mortgage rates when the base rate goes above zero?
What does this do to builder demand?
What will builders have to do to atract buyers then?
What effect will that have on existing home prices?
The downside hasn't even started yet.
In the meantime...
Chart us the time when house builders struggled badly and the market went up.
Not for home builders.
Their run is over.
Homebuilders' sales expectations drop dramatically, as mortgage rates soar
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/homebuilders-sales-expectations-drop-dramatically-as-mortgage-rates-soar.html
Just below where it was 2 days ago. At 2020 prices.
Your point?
Yep and half the country thinks what is holding back US oil independence is a pipe that runs to Canada.
US oil greed pushing us out of the global oil market.
We'll be energy independent by the inability to export oil at a profit.
Oil futures in bigly trouble.
You can buy and sell both. It has to do with the way the instrument's price is controlled. As the market slowly climbs up, the bank issues more shares to surpress the price to match the VIX movement. It's why they drop so viscipusly when SPY pops. It doesn't have to be selling, new shares just get issued. It's also how shorts cover their position. It's also why they reverse split so much.
What has happened now is the VIX has climbed, and the Barclays stopped isuing shares of VXX, because actually what someone has to do is buy them in the marekt to cover now. No new shares will be issued, until the VIX starts to decline.
Barclays no longer wants to issue new shares and get levered against a rising VIX.
Same thing sent TVIX through the roof.
Will the VIX do the samr thing? Don't know, but a continued rise will cause a short squeeze by everyone who was short, and just lost the ability to cover by buying shares from Barclays.
My man.
You remember hat happened with TVIX once Credit Suisse couldn't continue to issue shares right?
Barclays juat did it to VXX. UVXY massive volume as well, and can't be far behind.
Massive VIX product short squeeze coming IMO.
With Hong Kong down 5% to a 52 week low?
Throw the ruler away.
Maybe the "gap" at 400 will put up a fight.
Until then SPY still diverged from the world.
Yep.
Takes big money to move bonds loke that.
All the investment banks are lying.
No one here understands what that means from a asset value stand point.
Everyone is already in up to their eyeballs.
"BTD" on huge SPY volume which doesn't lie.
Now just bleeding out below all that volume.
Yields rocketing and flattening.
That volume wasn't big money buying.