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We will definitely be reminded of backlog and contracts we have during the Q3 call and early September. However, it would be nice to get updates on contracts in process that have not been finalized, ie:
Big Navajo Energy and Navajo Nation
CRIN
Remaining installed needing service in S. Korea.
Hydrogen Hubs (Supposed to be by Autumn)
Any number of others that may be near finalizing.
Whole different world coming to a theater near you, hopefully by mid September, but certainly starting by end of year.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/fuelcell-energy-carbon-capture-project-gets-6-8m-in-funding-68968831&ved=2ahUKEwi1xd6o7uaHAxXnD1kFHXyJHmAQFnoECCoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1oM4wUOmoCGKNdlJ9cG-MU
Status of CRIN project??
https://www.cleanresourceinnovation.com/newsroom/crin-identifies-carbon-conversion-project-for-funding-through-low-emission
Science Direct
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922000393&ved=2ahUKEwig2s2G8uaHAxVDMlkFHUtNBhYQFnoECBgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2vwcwSGt2Z4YXYYD9bt_lW
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://ouci.dntb.gov.ua/en/works/7Px2oxG7/&ved=2ahUKEwig2s2G8uaHAxVDMlkFHUtNBhYQFnoECDEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw20908fIOB_lrGWeYdfgd8M
FCEL presenting Aug 18-20
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fuelcell-energy_worldbrewingcongress-activity-7227328901117612032-Pltw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Exxonmobil 3 hours ago!!!!!
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/exxonmobileurope_ccs-activity-7227327850079555584-y14p?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Canada, Heidelberg???
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/international-ccs-knowledge-centre_opinion-top-5-questions-on-carbon-capture-activity-7227312605197918208-mqfs?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Heidelberg & FCE, any relation??
https://www.hydrogen-expo.com/industry-news/edf-energy-created-deal-fuelcell-energy-use-electrolyser-decarbonise-asphalt-production
Everything seems to be a head scratcher.
1) first and foremost the company's market cap should not be less than cash value of the company.
2) secondly, Plug missed top and bottom line and they missed pretty bad But suggested 2024 is in line with expectations. So Andy said something again about expectations in people believed him?? Stock only down 3%? I guess that's good sign.
3) positive updates literally daily regarding hydrogen and carbon capture and yet it seems to have no impact. Most recently, WTM posted a relatively positive political stance deporting the IRA from the Republicans???
And somebody had the gall to question my comments about significant manipulation continuing. RAOTFLMFAO
Definitely relevant and +
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174882070
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://investorplace.com/2024/08/the-3-best-hydrogen-stocks-to-buy-in-august-2024/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYACoTNjU1OTE3NjkxMzE0NDkzMzIwNzIaM2Y2YzEyOGYyMzM0YTgyODpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AOvVaw2BDHuQ6TPPM_49nI3sUCpT
Let's hope Plug beats $187M and $.29 loss tomorrow
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plug-power-plug-report-earnings-070433560.html&ct=ga&cd=CAEYAyoTNjU1OTE3NjkxMzE0NDkzMzIwNzIaM2Y2YzEyOGYyMzM0YTgyODpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AOvVaw11joFel4IP0Dv89rZDCn_E
Let's hope that news and sentiment continues. And it becomes common knowledge that most of if not all of the tax incentives for energy in the IRA will stay put. It's my understanding even big oil has a decent amount committed due to the IRA incentives. So unless they come up with something else to satisfy somebody, whether it's the green energy companies or big oil, in place of whatever they are planning to repeal, it very likely won't be. That supports my thought process over the past few months. The vast majority of the world is full steam ahead on hydrogen and carbon capture. Including the US at the moment. If US removes itself from that vast majority, it still leaves the vast majority.
Removing or reducing the US commitment would certainly affect the total financial investment near term and impact stocks of those companies that would benefit. But it by no means would stop the hydrogen and carbon capture revolution. I really don't think the US wants to be third or fourth in that process. Exxon will still proceed elsewhere like Porthos. Our actual business will not be affected tremendously although the stock price will certainly linger. Ultimately validating the long-term investment and the theory of averaging down. At some point those buying at these prices will be rewarded massively. There's no way this company is not going to have a multi-billion dollar market cap by the time profitability is in sight. That doesn't mean they need to be profitable. Look at any company in history throughout their progress. From startup to pre-profit to profit. The share price went up substantially on every single one prior to reaching profitability. And I'm not talking about an incremental increase. TICK TOCK!!!
NO SURPRISE here, ALL these institutions ADDED shares of FCEL. NONE SOLD
https://www.defenseworld.net/2024/08/07/tidal-investments-llc-raises-stock-position-in-fuelcell-energy-inc-nasdaqfcel.html
So The market's all performed extremely well today, Although there was a major sell off in the latter part of the day. FCEL basically followed Sue being about flat for the majority of the day but closing down 0.2%. looks like it's trying to hold 49 cents or get back over 50 cents. Again nothing to brag about. Keep in mind without knowing what shares were sold, We don't know exactly what the market cap is. I have to believe some shares were sold ATM during Q3. This means the market cap is less than cash on hand at the end of Q2. That's completely insane unless the market is pricing in bankruptcy. Now I've been wrong about a lot of things. But I've been spot on with a few that I was extremely confident about. I have the utmost confidence, bankruptcy completely out of the cards. Simply between cash on hand and revenue through already signed contracts more than enough cash through Q2 2026 for operations and still not be close to having to issue a going concern. Even Henrique isn't stupid enough to start throwing around the BK threat like he was in 2019 when he said it was imminent. That situation explained above is if nothing goes our way or gets any better. Bankruptcy is still not an option. That said, $250-$300M market cap remains ridiculous! That also implies every single MOU signed is meaningless and will (not may) lead to $0! And, No future business with Toyota, nothing besides $10M per year from Exxonmobil, and definitely no commercialization plan for the carbon capture. There is $0 value implied for the 300+ patents! $0 additional revenue expected from South Korea even though they hired an in Country executive and have 50+ MW of installed units still needing service or replacement modules. The Nuclear ventures they have with NETL and DOE will result in $0 and we will not move forward with the Gulf or California Hub. We will get nothing further from Big Navajo Energy or the Navajo Nation. The massive hydrogen revolution appearing to be just kicking in world wide is going to reverse interest very quickly and carbon capture will have a similar reversal. Is that what you believe? RAOTFLMFAO!!!
I don't know you and if you don't believe me it's no skin off my back. The only way I know to post something like that would be to take a picture and anytime I've done that it doesn't work out well. I'm not tech savvy enough to figure out how to post a picture without people being able to access my other photos. If you don't believe me don't believe me. Other people know me.
So we were up on the biggest point decline I ever recall seeing in the market and now we are up on one of the biggest point gainers I've ever seen in the market. Not that I'm complaining, But it is on well below average volume relative to the recent volume average. Ballard and Bloom in the green also a couple minutes ago. Plug unfortunately still lagging. Again I would love to see the industry have a small run. I'm just hoping with low volume we're not going to see the shorts and bears jump in from waiting on the sidelines for bit. Improved 45V and a rate cut might be just with the doctor ordered, top with a nice little contract would be a sweet ending.
Somewhat encouraging that it's at least teetering in green, In flirting with 50 cents. However, flirting with 50 cents is rather sad. I was really hoping all fuel cell stocks would make at least a small run but unfortunately plug and bloom are down. Industry wide would be much stronger than one stock making a little movement. Even if it was industry-wide because of one stock. Ballard's doing okay and they have earnings coming up I believe in the 12th.
Today's action validates market cap is undervalued. I don't know if I've ever seen the market get slaughtered this bad, particularly after already declining the past couple sessions. Yet fuel cell is up over 5%. Plug is up about 2 and 1/2% Ballard and Bloom are both down around 5%. I did purchase 2000 shares today. And if I get another commission this week I will purchase more.
Schwab sucks! This is at least the third time since switching over from TD Ameritrade they've had technical issues with logging in. Previously you could go to the Schwab website and login. Today I can't even do that. I'm ready to pick up at least 2,000 shares if it stays under $0.50 through tomorrow
$$$ flowing, like I said
https://www.energy.gov/fecm/solicitations-and-business-opportunities
$$$ is flowing. FCE named participants in the California and Gulf Hubs, with expressed interest in other hubs. $160M contract in South Korea. $11.5M project with Exxon Mobil and expansion of CCUS JDA through 2026 with MINIMUM of $10M per year. New biogas contract in California. Newer Nuclear Contract and SOFC with UCONN. Generation RECURRING REVENUE will average $15+M per Q moving forward. S&L revenue (non-existent and even -- a few times the past couple years) will begin Q4 and may help get to EBIDTA+ in Q2, and possibly Gross + in 2025 (depending on timing of Accounts receivable)! $300M cash & as previously stated, should burn less than average of $25M per Q. Unless they increase CapEx due to increased orders and demand. Get ready!!!!
https://www.environmentenergyleader.com/2024/08/doe-commences-funding-for-regional-hydrogen-hubs/
Crystal clear it's more financially beneficial/efficient to expand manufacturing in Canada than build 400MW facility in the US. FCE stated they expect to be running 40MW per year in Canada by early-mid 2025 with the ability to easily expand and increase production to 80MW. This indicates they plan to do just that. This suggests 2 things, 1 Demand doesn't currently merit a 400MW facility, and 2 they do see immediate or near term demand (by end of 2025)for more than 40MW run rate. This on top of current demand from SK alone requiring 50MW a year run rate for MCFC!
https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/fuelcell-energy-expands-lease-for-canadian-facility-93CH-3553241
Googled Fuelcell energy, this was the 1st link that came up. Irony or intentional? Very good read from Exxonmobil July 15, 2024
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/what-we-do/delivering-industrial-solutions/hydrogen/low-carbon-hydrogen-market-report
Constantly pumping $ into our types of tech, and we have many awards past & present. Something else is certainly coming out way at some point. That's a large reason why we average over 4 million per quarter in advanced technologies revenue
https://t.co/3aBYqiFhy7
Company states they should be at 40MW run ratein Canada early to mid 2025. New lease through 2028, and I believe the additional space allows potential ramp to 80MW. We may hear plans for 400MW facility in US temporarily on hold until further notice. IMO, they want earnings to impress until significant growth in Revenue is guaranteed through contracts exceeding a certain level. I'll guess 100MW or over 2 years backlog for Versa location.
https://u29265312.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=u001.AGVir0q-2FyZWbZ5ev3cZBUkEleMvRVzeSDmm68mD8cr1hMjImYLEZ03Nvu-2FCjFWvvCoMd6AOoDYt9hoSS4fkMnDFJOCo0VuYzppgO7VwC50GE24R4ib-2BHjk8OG5G8Q9Hr5k5Vh1emNqudWP0kjZvnpoEy57qs07HSISZO8aJQtdM-3Dydp6_FLPzT2gB4L4-2BGAeomRFoIkV8JLL6vIhz-2FCbDV-2BLOv-2FBGaGJCPvB-2Fqu8tNctOSA6PN-2FtQ5LJkQlnqKmjFR-2F5LHrJFpMXjcN82NPEks-2F2dLdrHk6Kb0gpmDfAn770Z9Nt1jr9RFC0LOKuJUlgJCHwYPPGm9tbeOG29HnUy-2BVZBLslNbkRhWDI5OkwbkxhYnFK-2Ffcg62tGmiup7h0UikbepMSS9xFvDciDB3CkYUTt-2BwVuSnRR86EfL19G5AZQ7Awv9QSIjKGHdIkChXHIgTlSN6cknVzXUcR2QtOty-2Fyu2NCrl8wIab-2FU3nsJsBKVqASQAg0bcNJ9-2FESJPBiKeqdK8IawUOUGQqya13A9orCSK8F4-3D
Video CCUS Canada well worth brief listen, about the conference and collaboration
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/carbon-capture-canada_carboncapturecanada-c3interview-ccc24-activity-7224894171231272960--tVa?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Thanks for your input although I'm not sure what the share count is right now so I don't think we really know what the market cap is until third quarter numbers are posted. That said I'm definitely not selling anything and I just deposited more money to average down.
$250M Market cab is ridiculous. I don't ever recall noticing the market cap below that level. After the world has finally made a commitment to their technologies in the company has signed at least a handful of MOU's and the following:
1) A significant extension and expansion with questionably the most powerful energy company in the world
2) completed a multi-awarded project for questionably one of the most advanced technology projects on the planet with the largest automobile manufacturer in the world (Toyota)
3) Signed a new contract for $160M (the equivalent of well over one years total revenue) with a REPEAT customer
4) Signed a new contract in CA
5) In negotiations with Toyota for follow up Trigeneration project/s!
6) Progressing contract Negotiations in S Korea for an additional $100M.
7) Hubs funding has begun with CA (FCE is named partner) and Appalachian.
8) GLOBAL news regarding growing commitments politically and monetarily for FCE technologies.
9) FCE had DIVERSE Applications of PATENTED ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES suitable for many different situations.
10) Is connected in the European, Canadian and Asian markets, in a big way (meaning with the right companies/people)! NOT USA DEPENDANT! Election and politics will not STOP them but may slow the process as we've seen.
11) USA, done states, and companies, are moving forward regardless of Trump's Drill Baby Drill agenda. CA & CT are an obvious example.
12) FCE tech plays well with big oil and green energies, & NUCLEAR! We in fact have contracts with Big oil and Nuclear and soon with Solar.
13) Big Navajo Energy has FCE as partner on their website and identified funding from Venture Capital to finally move forward with that project identified years ago at Toho well. Should update this year.
14) $6.8M awarded to FCE for project in Canada should have an update this Calendar year.
15) $313M CASH end of Q2, no shortage. Majority of $160M contract in SK coming in between Q4 24 and Q1 26 will insure no urgent need for Cash.
16) Assets out weight debt both long term and short term. And I'm relatively confident they are awaiting low interest loan from DOE, referenced by analyst during Q1 or Q2 Q & A.
17) Signed MOUs with KEPCO, TuNur, MHB, Chart Industries, IBM, Oando, and probably at least 1 other im overlooking in the past 3 years. You can't tell me at least 1 of them isn't progressing to something this year and we get something decent from at least 2 of them by next year.
I could probably go on, this is off the top of my head on break in 15 minutes.
TICK TOCK!!!!
Market cap is somewhere around $250 million depending on how many shares are actually in the market. Pretty sure we're all confident they've sold something but I don't know how much. More people talking about manipulation right now and some of his ingested the company themselves might actually be manipulating. If you think about it, And they have a buyer lined up or they plan on a share repurchase themselves, And they did a RS, let's say 10 for one for easy math, at 45 cents or $4.50, Then sold 100 million shares at $4.50 to a big buyer or purchase them back themselves, That would be a very good thing. Not that I'm advocating for that, But there are occasions when reverse splits work out for the better. I'm hoping the share price gets back over 50 cents relatively quickly and stays there, But I'm currently waiting for cash to clear so I can load a little more.
Just like any other project we do. Very little money until the project is completed. And since we will be one of the smaller partners in likely not an owner of this project someone else will be paying for it. In my opinion anyway. Either way, unless it's a huge project it's already considered in their capital expenditures for projects. I think that total was 10 to 15 million. So I might go from 15 to 20 million. They caught CapEx to make the finances more lean as they are constantly doing, And I believe they also applied for a DOE low interest loan. If it's for a hub project can't see how they wouldn't get it especially since I'm sure they're not applying for 1.6 billion
Q2 EARNINGS $313M total cash
https://s21.q4cdn.com/256256048/files/doc_presentations/2024/FCEL-Q2-2024-Financial-Results-Presentation-FINAL.pdf
READ CAREFULLY it doesn't take that long and you don't need to be a rocket scientist
Q4 transcript read closely, lots of good stuff. Constantly addressing finances, working on many different developments, and CCS will start growing before PORTHOS is operational!!! Key notes: Rev from S&L has been mostly non-existent or even a loss, but Q3 is .25MW, Q4 is 1.4MW.
Q4 will also include 6 replacement modules in SK.
Q1 25 is 1.4MW
Q2 2.8MW and 2025 includes 30 replacement modules in SK.
So Q4 24 and Q1 25 should impress.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4698435-fuelcell-energy-inc-fcel-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript&ved=2ahUKEwiy0cGRytSHAxVCEVkFHSvbA1EQjjh6BAgVEAE&usg=AOvVaw2ucd5aE_TOrFnuZ0rZ_twj
I see the markets are all getting obliterated today. That's not good. But the hubs are picking up traction.
https://cm.h2-view.com/t/t-l-euhtdty-tlttwkidr-d/
$$ starting to flow for hubs
Appalachian #hydrogen hub receives first $30m in federal US funding
— Hydrogen Insight (@hydrogeninsight) August 1, 2024
West Virginia’s primarily blue #H2 hub is the third of seven to receive an initial tranche of public fundshttps://t.co/OCt0lze9j7
Advise clicking on the article inside link and reading!
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7217860042446835712-RNV4?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
$.53 is hardly anything to be excited at all about. However, looking at the volume with over a 4% increase at 8:30 is interesting not exciting. Over 800,000 shares and up over 4%. Set translates into the open market in holes then it catches my attention for sure. Taking this in increments, I'll take staying over 51 cents through tomorrow for starters. But I'll gladly take closing over $.60 by tomorrow. The company has shown nothing but strength across the board with completing projects adding revenue and signing new contracts and developing new relationships over the past 2 years. More so on every avenue than any 2 years in the company history. Into the company history did not politically or monetarily support fuel cells at all.
We know CT & CA are moving swiftly on Hydrogen production and supporting fuel cell utilization, regardless if Chump is reelected
FCE at CT with Politicians discussing importance of fuel cells
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/alexandrea-isaac-8b355844_participated-in-connecticuts-clean-hydrogen-activity-7223745355400523777-EJfn?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
CA moving swiftly
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/california-hydrogen-business-council_hydrogen-carbonneutrality-hydrogenengines-activity-7223744915090911233-P92B?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Must Read!! Chump said Drill Baby Drill during RNC, sure create more methane!! Gotta at least act like you aren't completely ignoring science, don't you?? Maybe he promotes CCUS, after all, then you get job growth, can keep drilling and somewhat satisfy those listening to science!
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/30/methane-emissions-study
$160M contract from repeat customer in SK!
$10M minimum per yr from Exxonmobil extension and expansion giving permission to work with other to install Carbon Capture
$11M additional from Exxonmobil coming by Summer 2026 for CCUS project at PORTHOS
$15M per Q RECURRING REVENUE from Generation
$300M+/- 20M in cash
California hub releasing $$ and finalizing contracts to be first moving forward with Hydrogen Hub. FCE is a named partner whom should be announced before Thanksgiving
MOUs with TuNur, IBM, Chart Ind, KEPCO, MMHE, Oando, and pretty sure 1-2 more, this is off top of my head
Partnership with Toyota, Exxonmobil, COSIA, and many more.
Contracts in process, including but not limited to: Big Navajo Energy (Navajo Nation), COSIA, KEPCO (and other Korean power suppliers.
Check out @WeTheMarket message on Stocktwits http://stocktwits.com/WeTheMarket/message/580659207
Fresh off the presses 7/24
https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report/connecticut-supreme-court-affirms-fuel-cell-maker-tax-exemption
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.law360.com/articles/1861865&ct=ga&cd=CAEYCCoUMTQzMzAxOTU3NDQ2NTY5ODYwNzQyGjNmNmMxMjhmMjMzNGE4Mjg6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw1aSzqfWaFcCbGxuAg7d3xO
They've started to be more transparent and detailed in conference calls and answering questions. They laid out there service schedule so people know exactly what to expect as far as service and license agreement. If we pay close attention We will be able to figure out how that takes away from the generation revenue and how that increases quarterly revenue based on the replacement modules along with approximately how much per megawatt of replacement. Generation Revenue will obviously dip slightly when there are replacements being done due to downtime for the swap. We still should average 15 million per quarter in my opinion. They also recently announced adjusting their cap-X downwards based on market demand and trying to closely monitor spending. That was a proactive move. I thought there's not a whole lot they can do to improve the share price but now that I'm talking about it there is something they could do. They could have an analyst meeting. If they invited all analysts to sit down and clearly inform them of what they're doing to manage their cash along with different stages of sales IE recently closed contracts contracts in late stages of negotiation contracts in middle stage and contracts in early stage. I don't know if that violates SEC standards. Can't see how it would if it weren't during a quiet period and they did a filing on it. Then analysts who were really doing their diligence could be accurate and get on the same page. I still see 2025 as likely the most remarkable year for the company as far as the factual financial turnaround being defined. We had a revenue jump from approximately 70 million per year about 3 years in a row, up to 130 million give or take a little 2 years in a row. Next jump in 25 is going to be somewhere between 200 and 300 million. I know that's a broad range, But obviously there are several factors to consider. 200 million is a very very conservative low end estimate. That would be low end on every category of revenue. 300 million would be high-end on everything and the timing would have to be right on accounts receivable. If one were to guess about 250 million I'm hoping and thinking they would be close but a little light. They put out a schedule for modular exchanges in South Korea, If I recall correctly start in Q4 of this year. I really have to look back at it though. That combined with the service and license schedule along with assuming 15 million per quarter of generation gives you the vast majority of expected revenue pretty clearly. The only variables would be accounts receivable, timing, any new sales and advanced technologies. Advanced technologies is going to be a minimum of 4 million per quarter, beast on historical results for the last 3 years. The Exxon Mobil agreement is Advanced Technologies. As the extended and expanded JDA states, minimum is the key word. $10M per year. This is all going to start to come pretty clear by Q1 results in March, I like to listen to the call then read the transcript afterwards to make sure I'm clear on everything. 23 results should be interesting to say the least. Hopefully analysts have some good questions and better yet the company has some good answers.
Since this is what's out there everyone may as well be aware of it. Supposedly written by Longview investor, which could obviously be any one. Seems like it was written by Donald Trump given the fact that there's far more inaccurate statements than accurate. They did get a few things right of course they have to or everyone would know they were full of crap. Particularly they point out 25 million cash burn per quarter. But they say that's increased or increasing however it's actually declining. They also say they have 10 quarters worth of operations unless they pay off all existing debt then they would only have four quarters. So in other words they have plenty of cash for operations I don't know how they tried to spin that into a negative. Anyway far too many inconsistencies but this is what's out there
https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4705542-fuelcell-stock-unsustainable-business-model-sell&ct=ga&cd=CAEYAioTMjgzMTg2MzgyNjc3Njk1NDE1NzIaM2Y2YzEyOGYyMzM0YTgyODpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AOvVaw2IM9fPGhmy4sRE7Pp_p_B3
I'm sure we have several partners in common around the globe. I know we are both named partners in at least couple of the hydrogen hubs. Not sure which ones plug was named in but fuel cell was named in the California hub and the gulf hub