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why? I missed the entire move on the gbp/usd and gbp/jpy that I was expecting....I just kept watching them go up without me. Plus don't forget I got creamed more than two weeks ago and am not even close to recovering.
it is quiet today. I have been scalping the gbp/jpy this morning. Maybe everyone is traveling to Detroit for the final game? Much needed lift around here I can tell you, with all the doom and gloom because of the auto companies.
"They're just all wrong. Basically 90 percent of what the U.S. government has done ... has been to try and add leverage to the government balance sheet in order to sustain an unsustainable level of leverage in household balance sheets, so that the consumer will go on consuming exactly as he did in the past," Roche said.
Roche adds that this approach will simply not work, as the deleveraging process is now being driven by a returns to thrift and hard work. In a sense, the U.S. government is rowing the boat the wrong way, while telling the world it would like to help set up a stable financial system.
"In fact everything it (U.S.) is doing is to make the system more unstable, and using increased amount of leverage to do so, to recreate an American Dream which turned out to be a bit of a credit-driven nightmare," Roche said.
FXCM seems to be down, their websites and trading platforms.
yeah but what about getting it out of FXCM? I am worried I would have trouble. ( we wont discuss that I may be living in a fantasy that I could get there, let's just pretend for the moment ) Watching Uconn? My mom was a big fan so even though we are watching here in Michigan we are hoping Uconn wins.
reading these forex broker reviews again makes me nervous; if I build up my account say to 50K and want to take a chunk out will I have a problem? Lets face it they are giving people this outrageous amount of leverage....makes one wonder how they can afford to do that without finding ways to hustle people out of their money.
yes I would love to see pictures too.
another great article by a former IMF chief economist
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
the interview with Black,
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html
they all have ebb and flows that is why it is nice to keep an eye on all the majors and the crosses just so you have an idea about how they trade. Your posts are great very informative nice to have you "aboard".
this would be funny if it wasn't sickening
Bailed-out banks eye toxic asset buys
By Francesco Guerrera in New York and Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: April 2 2009 23:20 | Last updated: April 2 2009 23:57
US banks that have received government aid, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase, are considering buying toxic assets to be sold by rivals under the Treasury’s $1,000bn (£680bn) plan to revive the financial system.
The plans proved controversial, with critics charging that the government’s public-private partnership - which provide generous loans to investors - are intended to help banks sell, rather than acquire, troubled securities and loans.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Lex: Buying bad assets - Apr-02
In depth: US banks - Dec-12
Interactive feature: Bank Street - Nov-24
Senate calls for greater scrutiny of Fed lending - Apr-02
Video: What caused the financial crisis - Apr-01
The decade for global banks - Mar-22
Spencer Bachus, the top Republican on the House financial services committee, vowed after being told of the plans by the FT to introduce legislation to stop financial institutions ”gaming the system to reap taxpayer-subsidised windfalls”.
Mr Bachus added it would mark ”a new level of absurdity” if financial institutions were ”colluding to swap assets at inflated prices using taxpayers’ dollars.”
Participating in the plan as a buyer could be complicated for Citi, which has suffered billions of dollars in writedowns on mortgage-backed assets and is about to cede a 36 per cent stake to the government.
Citi declined to comment. People close to the company said it was considering whether to take part in the plan as a seller, buyer or manager of the assets, but no decision had yet been taken.
Officials want banks to sell risky assets in order to cleanse their balance sheets and attract new investments from private investors, limiting the need for the further government funds.
Many experts think it is essential to take these assets from leveraged institutions such as banks that are responsible for the lion’s share of lending, into the hands of unleveraged financial institutions such as traditional asset managers, where they will have much less impact on the flow of credit to the economy.
Banks have three options if they want to buy toxic assets: apply to become one of four or five fund managers that will purchase troubled securities; bid for packages of bad loans; or buy into funds set up by others. The government plan does not allow banks to buy their own assets, but there is no ban on the purchase of securities and loans sold by others.
“It’s an open programme designed to get markets going,” a Treasury official said. But he added: “It is between a bank and their supervisor whether they are healthy enough to acquire assets,” raising the possibility regulators may prevent weak banks from becoming buyers.
Wall Street executives argue that banks’ asset purchases would help achieve the second main goal of the plan: to establish prices and kick-start the market for illiquid assets.
But public opinion may not tolerate the idea of banks selling each other their bad assets. Critics say that would leave the same amount of toxic assets in the system as before, but with the government now liable for most of the losses through its provision of non-recourse loans.
Administration officials reject the criticism because banking is part of a financial system, in which the owners of bank equity - such as pension funds - are the same entitites that will be investing in toxic assets anyway. Seen this way, the plan simply helps to rearrange the location of these assets in the system in a way that is more transparent and acceptable to markets.
Goldman and Morgan Stanley have large fund management units and have pledged to increase investments in distressed assets.
This week, John Mack, Morgan Stanley’s chief executive, told staff the bank was considering how to become “one of the firms that can buy these assets and package them where your clients will have access to them”.
Goldman and JPMorgan did not comment, but bankers said they were considering buying toxic assets.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
I don't really use the charts until after I am in. I watch and watch and you can get a feel for when a move up or down is stalling. So if I want to go long I wait for a pullback and when it starts to stick in a 5 pip range I make a couple of entries, if it moves beyond the range against me (lower) I bail. I am watching though all the time so that makes a big difference in being able to trade that way.
well it is good to keep those stats because you have to set up a system where you can have those averages ( right/wrong picks ) and still come out ahead. I think some traders shoot for only having to be "right" 30 percent of the time.
or spotting a great opportunity and not taking advantage. I had thought the gbp/jpy would have a good week was in a bunch of times around between 141 and 142 chickened out and ended up not catching any of that move. I do that quite often.
yes and they are always surprised lol. Still they get away with plenty I am not punitive and when they have taken on more risk than is smart I am so relieved they came out of it ok anger just isn't something that shows up in that context for me. We are close though and they know how I feel and that they should matter enough to themselves to take care of themselves, and that seems to work well enough in the end, knock on wood. There are so many things to be concerned about you want them to feel they can come to you if they need to. They never want to of course but when it is serious you hope and pray they will.
oh you are off to a late start, cried in a few beers maybe? ;)
well everyone has some bad financial habit I think. I used to say if I wasn't trading I would probably have spent the money I lost trading every year. Plus there is that drive to be able to make things more comfortable for your family, and the reality now is that it take a ton to raise kids, I think more than gambling impulse it is the feeling of overwhelm about how we are going to pull it off that compels us to avenues that seem lucrative but are then more risky.
"A year ago, I could have told my husband I was putting 5K into trading and he would have said OK." One problem I don't have and don't miss. My ex was abusive emotionally and financially but I am very independent I am not sure any man would have put up with me.
I didn't take it that way at all. Lately I wonder myself how I did it lol I hope it wasn't a fluke.
thanks Omar. It always amazes me how quickly you bounce back. It has been two weeks now since my big hit and I am now just about where I was right after that.
that is why it can be helpful to look at it in percentages, and then when you have a sense of what kind of numbers you are pulling down over say three months and then you start multiplying that out over a period of a year or two or three you can relax a little seeing what kind of gains you can be making in really a pretty short period of time compared to just about anything else you could do. That is why learning to be disciplined and consistent is the most important thing because you can build yourself a nice little nest egg with some minimal patience. For instance if you have 75 bucks, if you can make 20% on your money 52 times you will have $982850K. So maybe that takes you three years, or if you can do that twice a month two years.....staying disciplined and keeping your eye on that goal will keep you plugging away. My daughter and I have a 20% goal 30 times, she is ahead of me though she already has her first 20% lol.
I made 14 bucks this week lol. I am ok with that though for some odd reason.
for years I thought that same thing when I was trading stocks. Then finally I was able to fund my account with a decent amount. Did not help. With a bigger account you just take bigger losses. But maybe that is the conversation you are having that is holding you back from doing consistently well. So set that aside and trade. If you throw a chunk of money at this there will be a whole other kind of pressure and new conversations that will get to you, I think trading success is more about disciplining your mind than strategy or the amount of money you have to start with. If you build your account to a decent amount you will have more confidence and not feel like you are risking money that might have been put to good use elsewhere.
I understand the problem of folding quickly because you are afraid of losing too much. I go through that when I have reached some kind of personal milestone and end up giving back a decent chunk in small losses strung together. The flip side is to take quick profits to build back up your account and in the meantime you also gain confidence. Then you swing too far the other way and end up losing a bunch lol. Anyway that seems to be the general pendulum swing. I think the trick to breaking that cycle is to be able to simply not trade. I am thinking you have some kind of expectation or pressure that is making this more difficult and the losing more painful. Not that those things ever go away, but you have to face them squarely and then consciously set them aside while you are trading. It is hard but it can be done, if I can do it with some success anybody can.
just did
once I am in better shape I am thinking of having an account with about 500 and trying the balls to the wall thing.
you are trading in an awfully tough environment. The ECB did something unexpected and I think the G20 was much more productive than people were thinking it would be. And the whole SDR conversation is getting more traction than anyone had thought that is another wrinkle to contend with. And then there is the NFP number coming out tomorrow and the fate of the auto companies still hanging in the wings.
it seems like they got a lot done at the G20. Much more than anyone was expecting. Looks like the pundits are really expecting now that the Eurozone will start QE in May. I really didn't get that impression from Trichet but who am I. Obama is holding a press conference now. Gives me hope.
or so they hope lol. Man I wonder if Obama slept at all while in London he has been one busy guy. Looks like here and England things are starting to pick up just a bit. Japan and Europe still struggling it seems. Equity improvement is for sure going to help people here feel better. My personal sense is that we are turning the corner, the stock market may be a bit ahead but then it is,they say, anticipatory.
I guess the universe heard loud and clear when I said I wasn't going to trade this week , I make it I lose it so am still at break even. SO I am planning on doubling my forex trading account every week for the next 8 weeks.
I got the impression that they will continue to take very measured steps depending on how things go, I also could have sworn I heard a hint of a "strong Euro " policy, that he sees it as important that euroland inhabitants maintain purchasing power and that a strong Euro gives people confidence. I actually quite like him. As I have listened to him over the last couple of months, I get the feeling from him that he isn't acting out of duress or panic that he is very calmly assessing the situation and reacting in a measured and thoughtful way. Here we have used the kitchen sink approach and that makes me far more nervous. What has been done over there so far can easily be undone and they are not really in the realm yet of having implemented measures that may have unintended consequences.....
trying to decide if I can shower fast enough to make it back for factory output.....guess I am going to try.
so much news flying about I guess there is going to be some kind of stronger than expect comunique around the SDR's out of the G20.
I was just kidding it is actually really nice to see all the activity here. I am not going to try and read through what I missed my daughter has many many questions I have to answer, I hadn't realised really how much goes into this whole thing.
OK WAIT everyone stop posting until I get caught up, there are more than 70 messages from this afternoon I have to read, what is going on here!! there used to maybe be 30 posts for the whole day....
I was up about 100 pips last night and within minutes was down 100, a 200 turnaround faster almost than I could blink. So basically I didn't trade this week lol just like I said I wasn't going to. Yes I am angry and frustrated about the banks especially living in metro Detroit, and watching the auto companies and those they employ get beat up from all sides in this thing, seems very unfair but then we all know about life and fairness.
going by the adp number Friday's job number is going to come in worse than what was predicted by around 70K. Could be another 725K jobs lost this past month....pretty nasty.
local news is reporting that bankruptcy is looking more and more likely for GM and Chrysler so despite the denial from the White House about Obama saying that was the best course locally they seem to think it is the most likely at this point. This may be a big political mistake for Obama, to let the "elite" banks ride it out but let the blue collar auto companies fail people are going to have a harder time seeing him as anything but just another Washington insider in the pockets of the financial industry.
I coulda held too and been green again. Crazy stuff.
had healthy profits in gbp/jpy long took some on one lot but took a loss on the other two ,still up for the week I wasn't going to trade but I am disappointed.