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yup
heading to bed now.
May we wake up one of these days where NP broke the ice: Deal.
GN
it very much could be just so. We don't know yet.
Today I debated NP's odd timing for the offerings with an old colleague and he laughed, thinking that this CEO simply doesn't care about intermediate pumps and what not. His thought was that this might be even better, while he is focusing on the job - the real results.
Also a good possibility.
Misui, I agree with you here. It is a consequence and as RP earlier said (Nobel), a successful cancer drug in ph2 can be ready.
Good that you also mention the tumor size shrinkage, one extraordinary result which was not originally planned.
I know the other financial stuff is not so much for your interest,
but I think NP restating the deals today is important.
He would be in the legal twilight zone if lying, so I will take that as an honest expectation this late after the original deadline.
Of course, this would also speed up trials as access to funds would be very easily having signed such a revenue deal now and licensing deal later.
BTW I think they have two already enrolled and the 10 requests in one day is also very very hopeful.
Market is playing .. may need to sink in.
Safety, NASH and stability data next - plus the deal!
Cough cough .. heads up: Revenue deal any day now, licensing deal also still in the pipeline. NP also got 10 email requests for mTNBC enrollment in one day. Expanded mTNBC access now simplified with IRB blessing as PR'ed today.
Wow?
nice nice. 30c support and it almost looks like the 100k ask is coming and going, i.e. fake to accumulate? Not 100% sure. But I like the volume.
Ohm20 or somebody else also tossed the idea around that NP
should get more flexible, selling other territories.
Now he might even soon be able to sell Cancer (for a good discount) besides HIV.
Soon we should know.
let's try a positive viewpoint here. If new investors save their Warrants for the good times later, maybe company eyes the 49c resistance as seen on the weekly chart or 43c 200dma as a first step to recovery.
Maybe suggest to NP to give investors an NDA, allowing them to see some more details like the significance of mTNBC and NASH?
At this point w/ cancer data, BOD might want to add or somebody else to enter. $12M would be a nice jump in investment marking the bottom at the current development IMHO.
Just ideas.
yes, a good possibility as mTNBC news using 'significant' should be interpreted strongly. But the 100k sellers somewhere above 30c are also very noticeable.
What damage? (edited)
Sadly stock didn't move yesterday.
Waiting.
EDITED: There is a very soft delicate uptrend maybe, 8dema support curving up? But truly fragile.
Maybe its easier to pick on me than ..?
But I read that you are neutral at best by now,
no more defending Nadar - progress.
Let's hope he gets it done EOY.
Other stocks would have run .. we know that.
Why didn't he wait with the offering a few days?
Yes, the dialog with ohm20 clarified all this.
Again, sorry for my confusion.
For CYDY: Please disperse the information in written,
it really gets a bit complicated even for us here (or at least myself) (o8>
No, this was not a 'bashing' attempt of myself as I also want the price to go up finally.
What's left then for this month: Safety data early November, the next seemingly easy mark.
Re financing, oh well - let's just get it behind us.
ohm20, thank you for the dialog. Much appreciated.
not sure about the increased quantity of patients here, as it excluded the emergency patient?
Would need this being more detailed, guess we don't have enough information.
What would be good for patients is if they are SURE what should be required, hence I do miss RP.
Your little dig against this notion, i.e. we wouldn't have started yet, is another long dispute and we just don't know. IMHO RP is not at fault and rushing this is no solution. But I acknowledge that RP also stated an early 2019 mTNBC trial start. We need more information to get the whole picture.
But regardless of fault or laziness, RP is the undisputed expert and he should return IMHO. At least consulting maybe.
funny (o8>
That's what can happen when you try to resolve the puzzle.
But I do stand to my mistakes.
Problem still the emergency patient update and IMHO Patterson seemingly making decisions in this regard. Masim.. (the treating expert) might have been more suitable here for a statement IMHO.
Regardless, of our little analysis - seems the low financing can't release the stock price to go higher, which I really would like to see.
+++
On 10/28 (which I viewed again) NP also stated that safety data should be done early November.
OK, so back to the back seat waiting.
ohm20, I reviewed the 10/28 video and the money talk radio.
OK, my apologies - I got confused, NP didn't explicitly stated
emergency patient data. Even though, well, first trial patient got first injected by Oct 10 and at the time he got excited 10/28, he should not have had the data of that patient.
This is probably the reason Misui deducted the very same (it was her quote).
One more reason why I like to see written statements, sorry again.
Misui's quote earlier around 10/18 on same PR
Misleading Emergency Patient Exciting Data & More (IMHO) ...
Good Morning,
yesterday I posted that the biggest IMHO misleading point
from NP was to find the data from the one emergency patient exciting on 10/28!
Now we learn that the one emergency patient is off treatment yesterday on 11/12, because they changed enrollment criteria!
No reaction here, but this is a huge collision of narrative, to put it mildly.
The exciting emergency patient data info was given by NP on 10/28 where he also said that he is so close to a deal.
pennies: Please notice when NP talked excited about this emergency patient the last time! It was like last week or 2 weeks ago max.
Determination that patient might not have been suitable must have happened EARLIER - also no excited data would have come from her at all!
What I am saying is that NP probably was once again quite creative in self generating some news maybe? You know, the whole big issue w/ NP here, accountability.
IMHO this is the biggest red flag in misleading SH about the status quo. Just days ago this emergency patient for supposedly 6 month should have delivered exciting data!
Re Patterson, sure he talked and he can talk - but that means nothing. Was it him who tried to boost with language like 'killer'?
He is a diagnostic expert and runs his own company for years.
He never did research in the cancer field regarding a cure or treatment.
I strongly doubt he is qualified to make a high profile assessment,
what I believe now is they put sand in our eyes once again.
I wonder what the FDA has to say about this trial change.
Also: CYDY has a much more credible cancer researcher conducting the trials. Why not let him write a statement for the news?
I am surprised NP disclosed all this today.
So at least, he is giving retail SH the heads up - sort of - between the lines.
Dr. Bruce K Patterson is IMHO neither a match to Richard Pestell who (with his team) identified the MOA of CCR5 and cancer cells etc,
nor seems he to be well qualified being more a diagnostic expert:
https://www.vitals.com/doctors/Dr_Bruce_K_Patterson.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/person/16733787
https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/80290232_Bruce_K_Patterson
I very well have chosen my words, b/c you just don't set or change enrollment criteria. Therefore, I picked the same attitude.
Did you notice the time lag of this news?
Didn't it surprise you that just last week(?) NP talked about the mTNBC patients incl the emergency patient and he was so excited?
Now - all of a sudden, she is off the trial.
Somehow these narratives don't match at all.
Double Delisting Notice: $1 bid + Equity < $2.5M
10-Q https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1602078/000107997319000567/nmra_10q-093019.htm
PI is a service paid for by CYDY here, hence all is scripted of course.
NP at least "explained" why the 1st emergency pts is off,
well - not really IMHO - but you may make your own choice here.
Changing enrollment criteria here sounds more than odd to me.
I would like to know who is in charge of this applied science going now, IMHO it would need RP. Hope he is professional and joins the conversation here, being a majority SH.
to be clear, according to RP the tumor cells wander through the whole body being attracted to CCR5 receptors. Correct me if I am wrong.
Meaning the emergency patient is off treatment .. due to some guy named Bruce Patternson's theory?
Bruce who runs his other company selling CCR5 tests?
I miss RP at this point - VERY MUCH SO.
(edited)
NP sold with 1.5 Warrants at $0.30 - that is the concern if it is reflecting the market's willingness to buy into CYDY.
The 1 Series C has an initial conversion price of 50c with 10% interest, in combo with the Warrants, it's not good (36c roughly with 1y interest).
This is what NP didn't want to do earlier while talking about the licensing deal...
So the risk here is back: No deal possible, plain and sad.
Reminds me of the Combo efficacy PR back then )o:<
So $12M to go (see D/A) and
- Safety data for BLA (where is it?)
- Stability data for BLA in December
- NASH data Nov/Dec
- Full mTNBC data 1Q20?
What is with the one emergency patient?
My 42c stop buy needs to wait it looks like it.
Current Series C $0.9M @ 50c = 1.8M shares + 10% interest + 2.2M Warrants @ $0.30 - WHY? NP should be able to sell them higher with cancer results, no?
and a D amendment shows $12M to go.
The D/A filing corresponds with 4/2 D,
see https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&filenum=021-336290&owner=include&count=40
May the remaining $12M stock also be sold for the BLA.
Progress
Good morning & happy for the 1st trial patient so far.
Great to read the first two data points being interpreted as significant.
CYDY management: Next time please provide these data points, other cancer companies do that in an open trial! They could even have posted a p value in contrast to baseline pre treatment, assuming this is what they call significant in the PR.
But again, great to see the MOA works for this one naive trial patient.
I believe the significant result is true.
As Saltz hinted, hopefully this will open the doors to conclude BLA financing.
+++
And now the obvious questions...
1) What happened with the emergency patient?
2) Didn't the FDA embargoed data until data of 3 patients is available?
+++
Whatever, great way to wake up to good results.
very well put weasel and I agree.
Guess accountability is the key essence of our fruitful debate.
At least, we are quite close to BLA completion,
if finances are willing.
Let's see in which direction our ship heads to.
Fifth Season 11/11 11:11:11
Carnival Season start in the eleventh month on the eleventh day, eleventh hour and second until February (o8>
https://www.dw.com/en/carnival-starts-on-november-11-in-germany/g-18843065
https://www.lonelyplanet.com/articles/cologne-carnival-11-november
weasel, good point. This is one reason why I would prefer NP to give his expectations all in written. The lack thereof motivates my & friends to at least put all these important talks on youtube having the auto transcript at least.
One debate I had was that NP simply needs to pump the story a little, otherwise funding sources would dry out. This is surely one important role of a CEO. For NP's own sake I hope that at least the NBA was real. Negotiations could also be supported by emails in a discovery phase. So he probably was or still is negotiating.
In the end, of course he must be negotiating about all of this - this is his job just a few months apart from potential sales.
It surely is not supportive if all these negotiations do not succeed.
It is also not well supporting if NP changes goals so often.
At least they stick to HIV-1 first now.
You:
weasel, good convo.
But then the BOD lost quite a bit of ownership via RP's addition.
Otherwise you are correct that they at least countered the dilution
and hence balanced out the paper loss.
But mostly via lending money to CYDY, i.e. the notes and interest paid in shares AFAIK. Only then comes the BOD compensation.
So I would say, BOD did not really profit, but they were allowed to stay whole - if you deduct the RP dilution.
This is why it is quite weird that only one BOD member tried to keep RP as an asset - they all should have. But in the end, they all voted for NP.
I don't ask for sexual segregation, only asking for non censorship and a bit more maturity from both sides (bull/bear).
In the end it is a valuation fight: Market versus company, while company requires the market to pay for the ongoing trials - not being self sufficient yet.
BTW, in this sense it might also be clear why NP is addressing the market the way he does.
I very well understand the notion of investing in the uptrend when certain risks have been removed. I do the same here, only having a relative small position which I may even trade depending on circumstances.
Tracking the financials and offering composition (share price, note's rate, warrant strike) helped me to swap this position for lower priced shares so far. Over the last months CYDY started to lower the warrant strike from 50c to 40c and recently some even down to 30c.
It goes without saying that the final BLA financing, some $8M - $13M remaining (from $10M - $15M AFAIK) is not as smooth as we all wished for,
hence no one final offering deal being bought.
On the other hand, we know the potential value of Leronlimab and its many indications as well.
Hence we await the once promised licensing deal, which was promoted EOY 2018 first if I remember correctly. The last promotion of such deal supported with lots of details was around 7 weeks ago and NP's self imposed deadline has been expired 1-2 week(s) ago. However, NP is still hopeful and he says it has not been abandoned yet but is still in negotiations.
NP acknowledged that other earlier deal negotiations failed.
Now bringing it all together, the SP slide from around 55c to 25c, now fixated at newest warrant strike 30c gives the luxury to just wait.
First my mental stop buy limit in case of success was around 50-55c, now I could reduce it to ~42c just around the higher warrant strike.
Friends also share this strategy, while one likes to trade the dips as well if they reach at least around -20%. But this dip trade is a complete different mindset, independent from the value trade.
They showed me how this stock can step down 'all of a sudden' and marks earlier support lines the new resistance. The dip recovery is very often only brief, give or take a few days. As if market waits for a material news segment, giving it one more chance but eventually price gives in. This dip trade friend, Ludwig, believes this could just happen again these days - completion of the latest step down due to possible failed deal negotiations.
We only can guess of course, nobody knows.
On the other hand - if financing can be completed, the BLA can be completed and allows for the potential upside. CYDY still needs a partner to sell of course. It is absolutely frustrating that no partner could sign a contract conditionally on certain events already, which also would allow higher demand in the offerings.
In this sense the risk lies more in cash raising capabilities and ability to get a commercialization deal signed than anything else IMHO.
Conversely, the potential partners who withdrew from negotiations saw their risks and potential losses being higher than the potential allowed by the terms in negotiations. I would love to have that knowledge for sure (o8>
Apologies for another too elaborate post of mine on the matter.
yes ohm20, I would go further and strongly advise everybody for any stock to read at least the last 10-K and the last 10-Q before dropping a penny on any stock. Also read the insider transactions for the issuer and check whether a shelf reg S-1 S-3 etc is EFFECT'ed with its 424b_ filing. To be sure of the latter go back at 12 month at least to catch any potential ATM, but older an prospectus should be also mentioned in the 10-Q/K.
That is investing 101 to exclude the too hot potatoes IMHO, only thereafter DD gets really hard.
All IMHO.
Giselle, I am sure you already were able to collect pro and cons after observing CYDY (hopefully not only social message boards but also papers, SEC filings etc).
When you have completed your first DD round, I am looking forward reading your summary. CYDY is surely one extreme equity value with high contrast, as its potential product could change HIV-1's standard of care via mono one day. But but .. yes, there are also the other things of course - hence the valuation.
weasel, good morning.
You negative post is sort of reasonable,
tackling NP's stock performance and certain promises so far.
NP is IMHO the only one benefiting, but ..
Please explain how the BOD is benefiting from delays,
since their ownership has been reduced big time lately
and their ROI timeline probably also stretched a little.
BTW I always see big insiders only count their stake in a company,
not the contemporary traded value. The latter is something they all
have set in mind personally, similar to us.
Chump, what was the intention of this post on Friday, 11/01/19 10:39:41 PM?
very interesting (still) private company. Thx Chump.
Their HIV trial is 1/3 in their pipeline, having IND now.
https://www.americangene.com/development-portfolio/hiv-aids/
Late 2020 or early 2021 they want to slide over to phase 2
after current initial safety study phase 1.
Depending on their phase 2 results 2021, we shall see how fast they can go.
yes. From a trading perspective and if one is willing to buy at such deep dives like 20c, 25c - it is counter productive to set the bids beforehand.
Icebergs and the like will run algos monitoring the trades and then buy the ask at 25c - or - if happening - 21c on a desperate plunge (o8>
Retail may set an alarm above that line and then watch close to buy it up again - if feeling frisky. Gladly the deep dips never really stayed low for long, even though the lowering SP is well noticeable. It's like - if nothing of greatness happens, the low dip price will be caught eventually and retested.
I have no idea about SP until good news and BLA costs completed.
Sure, would love to see all cash raised before releasing the news, otherwise we are on the leash. Knowing NP, he would continue raising at 30-40c even when SP is up to 50c lol. That was when Combo efficacy has been achieved back then. Poor news and stock sales management.
But NP is not alone here .. IMHO most important he just gets it done now!
Style won't matter next year if successful.
Until we know more, I guess we have not much to debate until.
Let's roll the dice (o8>
Right, corrected: I don't expect any upfront cash, IMHO this was communicated by NP. Hence we would need to see the BLA cash raise being completed. First milestone should be approval IMHO, then they shall pay for cash used to kick off commercialization.
AFAIK this is what we are seeing here.
7.5 weeks to go.
Safety data (BLA), NASH data, stability data (BLA) to be expected before EOY.
Demand at 30c looks OK, volume dancing around 1M, I would like to see more of that of course.
No punishment from market based on NP's timeline dance (o8>
I don't expect any upfront cash before BLA completion, IMHO this was communicated by NP. Hence we would need to see the BLA cash raise being completed.
Now $10M - $2.6M to go?
Mama mia, can't he just do it at once?
OK, I will just keep tight and STFU, may the deal be with us soon (o8>
(A little humor can't hurt)