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I agree that the last dilution was orcastrated by dans personal agenda. Not sure what I said that made you think that but I have nearly zero confidence or trust in our CEO, primarily because of the proxy where he wants 2.5mm per year for 10 years for employee incentives. That is what caused me to loose all respect for him as a CEO. If you plan on a BO in 1 or 2 or even 5 years, why get a 10 year package set up if you plan on selling before then and knowing shareholders will not be happy with it with the greedy proxy. My opinion, he does not plan on selling this company. Maybe ever. He will continue on the same path he is on adding hundreds of thousands of shares to his account per year while not generating value. Eventual the since will create value even if DO does nothing at all. I really see 70-80 million shares outstanding before we ever get close to his 6B valuation and I don't see that happening within 5 years to be honest. If adxs ever hits $100 a share I will be shocked but also long gone by them. After 4 years I can not do another 5+
Bourbon I agree completely, but why file a $50mm shelf if you don't need the cash and don't plan on having your partner buy at these prices? Why even file it if you don't plan on using it?
Fbg, correct I did think yesterday's PR would do nothing based on similar previous deals, but I would not lump the Astra deal into that group considering it was with a BP with upfront cash and a stock purchase. Yesterday's contained none of those and reminded me of all the other DO deals. I think it would be a poor management decision to execute a big AXAL deal now at this price compared to after ASCO. With the GOG abstract coming in march, then hoping Dan can carry and build on any momentum going into asco and releasing any great data there, then follow that up with the deal could significantly add SH value in the form of less dilution. That is assuming we are still not in the single digits after asco. We will have much worse things to worry about if that is the case. Dan is big on doing deals based on strength and not weakness so why execute your largest deal to date at our pitiful current valuation. Get the price up, release the data, make the deal, and let the market handle the shorts.
Catt could you explain what you meant by "I'd say as aggressive as the shorts are being with Advaxis, " please? Are you saying they are aggressively shorting the stock, or aggressively covering? Because the short interest info does not reflect either. If shorts were really worried about impending news, would they not be covering hand over fist, especially when the bio market is down? Why would they risk being short and taking losses when they could lock in gains now? I don't think they would be worried about pennies if the chance of loosing dollars was a possibility. Do you?
Of course an AXAL deal could happen tomorrow but I just find that very unlikely.
One because with the recent $50MM shelf offering, it only makes since that it will be for the partner and not a secondary since we don't need the money at the moment. If it is included in the partnership would we really do that deal at our current valuation of $9 a share? I hope not. Sure we could require a premium possibly. So if the $50mm is issued near the current price, that would be a 10% dilution and at a value less than the average $12 dilutions he has done in the past. That can't make our large investors happy.
Secondly I have been doubting that much manipulation has really been going on by the shorts. No one so far has been able to really explain how or why it is happening. Looking at the short numbers, since the high on 11/15 shorts have covered roughly 2mm shares. With around 50 trading days since 11/15 that is around 40k shares covered per day average. That doesn't look like any rush to cover. Shorts sell high and buy low, we have a 200 day moving average in the single digits, that seems pretty low but they are not covering with any real speed. Also looking at the past couple Qs of filings reveals institutions have net reduced holdings in ADXS by around 2mm shares so they are not keeping it down to accumulate. So who is doing the manipulating? And for what reason has it been going on for the better part of a year now?
Also are you saying ADRO is as "undervalued" as we are at the moment? I was under the impression that adxs results were better than adro yet they have a market cap double us. Do you think they should be a multi billion dollar company as well?
Traderbx, that is exactly why adxs was up yesterday. The bio market was on fire and we followed the uptrend along with many many others. The deal yesterday did however add to the volume but being green was from the ibb. These type of PRs and deals have rarely moved the sp in the past. There are only a couple PR events that will drastically move this upward and we are not close to either of those happening anytime soon. Until then, we drift and float around like we have for the past 18 months.
Gold it is funny you mention LJPC because I saw that also and looked into them a bit this morning.
They are up big because they released great data on their P3 trials which has an SPA from the FDA. Prior to these results they were valued at roughly $360MM MC (look familiar?) They have around 86% institutional ownership at YE and just 9% of their float short. They have traded 16MM shares today as of now with only 18.3MM outstanding. The great P3 results coupled with the share info is what is driving the price today. Compare this to ADXS and things become more clear IMO. We have less ownership, more shorts, more available shares, and we are not releasing P3 results anytime soon.
Before we release P3 results I believe ownership will go up to 85-90% and shorts will be mostly gone. Then yes we could see a 50-100% increase day. But when are the 3P results expected?
I was surprised to see LJPC conducting a P3 SPA trial valued at the same market cap as us yet we are so "undervalued". I know there are some differences here but there are a lot of similarities also. I was also surprised to see a new bio company in a P3 with just 18MM shares outstanding. That is impressive.
Hahaha thanks Planetstock, I almost got excited when Sandman posted "up on nice volume premature". Yea 400 is almost no volume. I just hope this stays green today. I have seen adxs go red many times on PR's like this so no one should be surprised if this doesn't do much to the SP today.
Per the Proxy "In addition, on January 1, 2018, and on every January 1 st thereafter for ten years, the aggregate number of shares of Common Stock that may be issued under the 2015 Plan will be increased by the lesser of: (i) 5% of the total number of shares of Common Stock outstanding on December 31 of the preceding calendar year, (ii) 2,500,000, or (iii) a lesser number determined by the Board of Directors."
Not going to bash or provide any personal opinion. The above is pure fact straight from the proxy. A little basic math (2.5MM shares x 10 years) = 25MM shares or roughly 50% of current outstanding shares today, could go into the pockets of management in 10 years if this is passed and a BO does not happen before then.
*No personal opinion is provided above, just pure facts that are publicly available for all to see.
I agree having Adage and Broadfin invested does provide some comfort and I think Dans time in charge is on a clock but I don't know how long till that changes. While these 2 investors are in, they bought in early enough and do not have a lot of capital tied up at the moment. I still think adage bought in as a lottery ticket and is in no rush to see what happens. Now if we get to $50 then their shares are worth 1/4 B and will be one of their 25 largest holdings, but until then, I think they are probably plenty busy doing other things. Once they have real money riding on this, I think they will just take the back seat and wait. I just checked and it looks like institutions sold a net millions this past quarter. Not good for the accumulation theories going around here.
Fbg, of course I have a problem with what it appears he has been doing. I didn't like it every time he pulled one of his stunts allowing more RSU's to go in his pocket for performance he did not earn and it bothers me even more know. At this very moment I am studying for the cpa exam and over the last couple weeks I have been on chapters relating to corporate governance and fiduciary responsibility and ways to use pay compensation strategies to accomplish company goals and management performance, and I am now on cost of capital and ROE. As I go through these topics and think back over the years about how DO has handled many different items, it really looks back on Dan as a CEO. As a SH we have always given him the benefit of the doubt because we are thinking about future wealth, but as an auditor which is what I am, it does not look good from this side. We keep justifying his selfish acts but I feel like that is getting tougher to do as time goes by.
Hypothetically just think if 2017 goes just like 2016 did, how will this board feel about Dan then? 2016 had some big things happen and some good data and partnerships, but no sp appreciation. This year could follow that trend and we could be in this price range with more good data, more partnerships, and more shares outstanding 1 year from now. But Dan would have another $100k-200k worth of shares. But back to your question, yes I have a problem with his actions but there is nothing I can do about it but keep waiting for something to change.
Bourbon, I personally disagree. I don't think there is any rush at all for Dan to get the SP up for a BO. Dan has never mentioned getting a 100 BO, that has only ever been discussed on this board, and the YMB when 150 was the BO target. All Dan has mentioned was a 6B BO target. Wether that happens in 2018 or 2022, only effects the shareholders, not Dan because he will continue to get options and bonuses in the form of stock so the longer we stay low, the more $ Dan eventually walks away with. It has always been much easier for him to grab more shares then to generate SP appreciation.
Until Dan has acquired his fill of shares, the SP will not do much. The shorts do not control us, our CEO does. With our high institutional ownership and high short interest and potential current value of 20-30 (per this board) how easy would it be for just 1 big buyer to come in and make this stock go crazy and shorts actually run for the door? It would be simple and almost a guarantee for them, but that has not happened nor has our CEO released any news (ever) that has cause the shorts any real concern. Until our CEO gives the big buyers a real reason to step up and buy up our shares past the single digits, we will continue to languish here. I believe that news will happen eventually, but not to the level we have all been waiting for. Dan is not content with his ADXS holdings so he is stalling for time. Once he is happy, then things will start to get interesting around here.
I dont think that million plus volume day had anything to do with Blackrock. It looks like they only added around 173k shares since their last quarterly filling.
Bourbon, the others are right, Fidelity did add 1.3MM to their holdings. Pictet did however sell out their entire 1.4MM share though along with other smaller guys. I played with the changes after the quarter ended and I believe I came to the conclusion that without the direct offering, a net of 1MM+ shares would have sold in the open market. Given the lack of institutional pressure over the last few quarters and the large short interest over the past 12 months, it is obvious the only thing that will get us to a fair value is a BO or a new CEO. Little PR updates or even a decent partnerships will not do the trick. We can not even hold the value of the new partnership much less add to our existing market cap. Without a new ceo or someone stepping up to buy us, we will never see the SP that so many of us have been expecting over the years.
I agree 2018 should be our year. I first stated this back in late 2015 when people on the YMB were claiming 2016 would be our year. I had been in ADXS long enough to see that DO missed most of his goals and expectations by a factor or 2x or more. So every since then I have been doubling the expected timeline of everything he says and my expectations have been pretty close so far. Hopefully that changes soon but I do not see how it could without another CEO. I have been wanting that to happen for a long time now.
It's nice to see the institutions continuing to add small amounts to their holdings but did you notice the 2 largest changes in holdings during this past quarter in the open market?
A complete liquidation of all ADXS shares by Pictet Asset Management Ltd. All 1,428,619 shares valued at roughly $15MM. Their last reported 13F filing for Q3 2016 included $26,586,093,000 in managed 13F securities.
The next largest change in holdings was a complete liquidation of all ADXS shares by Orbimed Advisors. All 445,400 shares valued at roughly $4.5MM. Their last reported 13F filing for Q3 2016 included $8,780,843,000 in managed 13F securities.
Fidelity did add 1.3MM shares but it is believed that was the direct placement that took place after the Amgen deal.
The open market saw more selling than buying during the Q3 2016 with an increase of 1.2MM shares shorted. That is why if you look at the 3 month chart for the Q it trends down the entire quarter. Until more buying pressure starts to occur (or we get a new CEO) this stock will continue to trade the exact same way it always has. Small pops followed by sustained sell offs. Nothing to look forward to for at least another quarter or 2, possibly longer if DO misses deadlines or any additional set backs occur.
IBB vs ADXS performance
1 week:
Adxs -7%
IBB +2%
1 month:
Adxs +4%
IBB +9%
The trend remains the same as it has for the past year. On strong gaining days for the IBB ADXS matches those gains (except for yesterday). On IBB down days, ADXS matches those losses by 3x-5x. Nothing new here. No train leaving the station, no double digits, no Astra partnership. But same greedy management, same sell the news trading, record high short interest. This could/should remain in the single digits for the next 6 months. Very likely that 7-8's are seen again before double digits are.
Does anyone on this board have any real evidence of manipulation and by who? Yes the 100 block trades make it appear that way, but by who and for what outcome? This talk of "manipulation" has now been going on for over 1 year. 1 year. Without any major change occurring. Similar SP, similar shorted share count, similar institution ownership. The only thing that has not stayed similar is ADXS outstanding shares, new partnerships, new trials, good data. If these 100 shares blocks are someone adding, how can we not see it in any regulatory filling? The last quarter all of 1,275,822 net shares were added by institutions. Prior quarters were a drop in shares owned. The short interest has been between 9-10 million for over a year now. So if the big longs are not adding, and the big shorts are not covering, where is the manipulation? Dan obviously does not agree that it exists because he continues to sell shares at these prices. So if he does not see it, why does this board?
Husker, are you thinking AXAL has a chance at getting approved with only the 2 trials, or are you just curious about the FDA approval process? I only ask because your link references a PR from Advaxis from May 2014. That is nearly 2 1/2 years ago, almost 30 months (man that is a long time to have made almost no additional progress on that construct). As far as the FDA approval process, I have heard from others that yes approval is possible with only a phase 2, but that is unlikely to happen with ADXS given their relationship thus far with the FDA. 2 and a half years already?!?! And just another short 2.5 more years away from seeing final data from the phase 3.
I thought there were already 40MM shares outstanding? So at a $6B valuation, would that not be 150 as of today. But that still does not take into account the current warrants and management options which puts us closer to 45MM shares outstanding or a $133 SP. I think it is safe to assume we reach 50MM shares before a BO occurs so around 120. Another dilution or 2 is likely, plus his golden parachute, plus more management RSU's will account for the additional 5MM shares by my estimates. Any BO that occurs within the next 2 years in the triple digits will make me very very happy, but each month that goes by makes me re-evaluate my expectations downward.