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Stigma is illicit's best friend.
Kudos... without an opportunity for a different path where do people think they'll end up?
As long as it's a minor association no problem. Re-framing cannabis is critical for the medical side.
Prison is probably a great place to pick up innovative cannabis recipes.
I'm sure Martha has been using it as an ingredient for decades. Could even be the cornerstone of her success.
Good info thanks Trend.
And it's smart to emulate the successful.
The time frame was sometime before Canopy reports on next quarter's numbers. So weeks possibly months and only about a 15% drop from last week so roughly about a $6 swing.
Enough to do some buying but not a hand wrenching drop for long shares.
Taken from Financial Times:
First few times Cramer talked about cannabis, just thought damn this dude is totally clueless.
This board was a new experience. Never had better info than the analyst's before. The taboo nature of cannabis had Wall Street keeping their distance and there was the added leap of faith of investing in a foreign market for those unfamiliar with the Canadian system.
Now only own Canadian cannabis stocks and very happy with how Canada manages their trading. Actually pains me to say have Trump to thank, moved all my investments outside the US when he became President.
He's also the reason I looked into becoming a Canadian citizen only to find out I already was. :)
Thanks Donald !
Motley Fool, once screaming from the rooftops that the sector was more of a sham than a serious investment, now seems to offer a more positive note consistently.
We've know for years that we were on the right track but still feel sorry for all the friends and family they scared away early in the game.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/02/17/us-hemp-revenue-to-grow-27-annually-hit-26-billion.aspx
It's going to get serious. This is probably just the warm up. They expect the finding of the Southern District Court of NY charges will be his undoing. Lots of side shows like tax returns to still hit the light of day.
US Cannabis policy is just background noise for now... as Happyglass likes to point out it will be a good thing for Canadian Co's. and that seems to be happening.
It's also a good time to look at US Co's that will be well positioned when the policy change happens. Wouldn't be surprised to see it removed from a schedule #1 by mid 2020.
Thanks.. critical update.
Solid business plan with multiple strategies and most importantly for me is a corporate culture of integrity.
That one attribute is responsible for attracting key partnerships (IMO) that Aurora and Aphria have yet to achieve.
Bruce's explanation of the losses were totally understandable if your a long. JMO
Often use your opinion to temper my own strategies and my results are better for it.
If it's true for me than I'm probably not alone. Please keep adding to the effort! & Thanks.
Yes the offsetting losses dampening the increase in rev's seem to be the trend as companies continue to heavily fund their growth plans.
The wild card is the news cycle which continues to drive share price and hype. Although think "hype" may be true to some degree can't discount the true substance of growth assuming their not overpaying for it.
Think your perspective is the most likely outcome. It can all change in an instant with any favorable moves in US policy.
Thanks for sharing you thoughts. Much appreciated.
There's a lot to digest.
Looks like any concerns were unfounded.
Think Aurora's EPS loss was 35% lower than predicted and CGC's loss is 2.5 times lower.
The problem is lots of numbers have been throw around so it depends on who's you use.
I'll be waiting to see how the market reacts to -0.38 per share loss, VS the analyst est. of -0.11 .
Will the other metrics be enough to offset the miss with investors?
That's a way bigger miss then Aurora's. I'm hoping the street mostly ignores it much as they did with Aurora.
"Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated losses of C$0.11 a share on revenue of C$81.1 million"
Winds of change. Thanks John.
Thanks Db was getting tiered of checking every ten minutes.
I'm not feeling the gloom and doom.
Aurora's losses should have driven their SP down 10-12% or more. The companies they invested in were pure bad calls on their part.
Owned two of them and wouldn't be surprised if they added to losses again next quarter.
So something is different.
I'm sure there will be ugly spots on the financials but our expansion into new markets especially in the US puts us out front even more.
Moved a bit into two US cannabis companies just in case we get whacked. The last pullback was seriously painful and not something I'm eager to re-live.
Please fell free to correct me...
My understanding is 190 mil of Aurora's loss was tied to their investments in other cannabis companies who lost value during the quarter.
Removing that from their numbers their loss would have gone from about 235 Mil to only 45 mill. While exceeding all other earnings metrics.
So it stands to reason that Canopy should also exceed on earnings.
The big question being losses and how those will be viewed by investors. If there poor judgement calls like Aurora's it might not go well, although Aurora's SP has held up fine. So their punishment it seems was no big move "up".
If the cause of CGC losses are reasonable, I think we move up and believe that's whats driving today's SP higher at the moment.
Fingers crossed but I'm feeling better about this.
They submitted their paperwork Jan. 6th. It's a 4-6 week process.
The shutdown likely delayed processing.
The news release is on their website.
Your right way more times than your wrong from my viewpoint.
You always give a straight opinion. I respect that and don't mind saying your one of a handful of people who have helped me make money.
Thank You!
Ha ha.... good one.
Thanks Darius... took the plunge. Only a small position in both portfolios. Will watch and add with the moves.
Already own TerrAssend which should do great down the road. Been buying Curaleaf for a couple months :) and started adding more CannTrust they should be listing on the NYSE any day now. It's a 4-6 wk. process and they filed their paperwork Jan 8th.
GLTU & Thanks for your opinion much appreciated.
I'm liking Rivers more.
Thanks for the update.
Having a nice move today. Should be listing on the NYSE any day now.
GLTA
More good management, the key ingredient.
Today is shaping up much better than I expected. Could be a signal of Wednesdays outcome. Fingers crossed.
Congrats Dude... was thinking about you late December. Very painful downturn. I get a little smarter after each one...thankfully.
Couldn't be happier for you both... Congrats & Cheers!
With all the legitimate medical opportunities that cannabis offers I'm guessing her "Joy position" got a chuckle in more than a few pharmaceutical board rooms.
The will of the country and constitutional amendment option, is going to force anyone seriously running to commit to supporting a path to accomplish rescheduling.
Fully believe that will hold true for both party's.
Cheers!
Excellent find John! Thanks
The path to change really needs to bypass the executive branch imo.
Looking at the info just about everything is in place to accomplish that. 33 states with approved medical. Kansas, Wisconsin and South Carolina are looking at approving medical in 2019, making a potential 36 states for medical use.
The 2/3 requirement to propose a constitutional amendment already exists. If that happens only two additional states (38 total), are needed to meet the 3/4 requirement to ratify an amendment to reschedule cannabis even if the Executive branch attempts to block it.
Even with the federal government dragging their feet states with the help of their legislators could pass an amendment as soon as mid 2020.
Rescheduling cannabis is low hanging fruit for political gain imo, and it just keeps getting lower. Too many of them will miss the opportunity to take a victory lap if it's done by constitutional amendment. (Please excuse my cynicism). So I believe we have an excellent chance of seeing it rescheduled before mid 2020.
JMO
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomangell/2018/12/26/these-states-are-most-likely-to-legalize-marijuana-in-2019/#68a78a0b5add
You have an envious start on living to be very old and very wealthy.
Have no doubt you'll accomplish both. Just keep posting to help the rest of us. Lol...
Lol.... it really is unbelievable.
Market over-reaction can provide some of the best investing opportunities ever.
Andrew Left's short attack on Cronos kicked off one of the best buying opportunities of 2018.
The stock rebounded quickly with a 100% upside from it's low sell-off point. Although unrelated to that event, Altria's buy-in then doubled the SP for a total gain of 300% if you bought and held from the low. It all took place over just a few months.
You only had to believe the quality of Cronos' management was solid to benefit from both events.
Although some would disagree, Canopy has proven to most that it has one of the best management teams you could possibly wish for.
Great find Twister.
A top tax rate of 25% sounds a bit steep, but the rest sounds good.
The problem is most in the industry including us are so desperate for change that we would likely except poor legislation just to see progress being made.
Seems crazy that the federal government has done so little to keep up with the needs of Americans. Unfortunately it demonstrates that the majority of US citizens are not in control of a government who's only purpose is to serve it's people.
No worries about bad numbers.
It's the spin that the talking heads will put on it. Any drop will be a buying opportunity. Will convert a bit to cash if we get a big run like Cronos had.
We can be happy knowing what we own either way.
Shouldn't bite the hand that brings you champagne. :)
I'm going to call it the suck end of what started out to be a great week.
One where executing a damage control plan helped. Hoping the wheels don't fall off with earnings short term. Long term looks sweet.
GLTA
Go Bruce!
Bruce's leadership has been stellar and I don't see that changing.
Have no doubt at some future point Canopy will be one of the top US cannabis companies and wouldn't be surprised if they become #1.