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Dice, my understanding is that Oppenheimer puts out an estimate as to what they think the stock price will be at some point; it has virtually nothing to do with things like the technology or future market opportunity, at least not until the "future market opportunity" is very close at hand, such as expecting the FDA to say "Go" with a few weeks. Otherwise, it's just a prediction for PPS, and they do need to factor in things like historical short percentages as considerations.
For an acquisition, the valuation is based on a more in-depth analysis of all things of value, including patent portfolio (not just individual patents but the portfolio as a whole and how well it encompasses a variety of opportunities to suppress like technologies on competitors' products), plus short-term and long-term market opportunity (which could include subsequent licensing of more patented technologies), development pipeline/projects, etc. And I believe someone said that three independent evaluations are typically conducted for such an acquisition target. Supposedly PPS and Market Cap have nothing at all to do with this. As I understand it (never been through it myself tho...)
Anyone with experience in this care to chime in?
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I’d say extremely low probability of my scenario. But, I cant see how an acquirer would justify anything north of $10 a share by June unless the sp jumps between now and then. The recent $4 price target kind of puts a ceiling on things.
Found it! From last fall... more recent than I thought - which is even better!
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MEDTRONIC-PLC-20661655/news/Medtronic-nbsp-2020-CEO-Letter-to-Shareholders-31615434/
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Wowwwww! Titan is back!
Can someone send the article with Medtronic's cash on hand, I think someone said 3.5 billion?
BigT, this reminds me of the old TV show My Name Is Earl. Anyone remember it, with Patty the Daytime Hooker?
Best quote from Patty: "I even pulled out my good b**b!"
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BigT82 Tuesday, 04/06/21 08:21:08 PM
Re: MagnusProfitis post# 125936 0
Post 125941 # of 125964
Ummm... no raise this week pal.
Day short?
Too funny
The $3.5B was their untapped credit. They had $10.9B in cash last spring. I'll try to remember to dig up the link to the article when I fire up the laptop later this morning.
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Wowwwww! Titan is back!
Can someone send the article with Medtronic's cash on hand, I think someone said 3.5 billion?
AH Volume is impressive, considering we've had squat for volume for a few weeks now.
Just catching up; stuck in meetings this morning and more to come this afternoon...
The article provides a nice reminder of a few things, including the ever-present question of "Why would Medtronic care if Titan raises $18M?" Unless it was so MDT or one of their hidden partners could get a leg up on the share acquisition process, all I ever could come up with is that MDT wanted to ensure Titan had funding to get through their joint development program. But if that funding was in question up front and Titan was at risk of going under due to those development costs, it would have been logical for MDT to take over Titan at that point of desperation. So alternate theories still don't really add up.
As for subsequent posts on this topic (Times, SPORT, Dice) all valid points but mostly ongoing questions. There would certainly be some benefits to not only redundant use of hardware designs for production costs, common training, surgeon feel across multiple platforms... but being able to pick and choose which features to deploy across an entire product line. Maybe MDT liked our camera and imaging system and rolled that into Hugo - maybe less of a schedule hit because it isn't the surgeon interface or patient interface, and as noted, we haven't really seen any noticeable change to Hugo's design from September 2019, but that wouldn't be easily recognizable as different. For surgeon controls, who knows... maybe MDT prefers their original Hugo hardware and the Enos delay is that those hand controls are being adapted to Enos!
Other benefits to shares hardware across platforms can lead to additional competitive advantages in the market. My understanding is that a hospital upgrading from a da Vinci Si to an Xi can't even use the freaking drapes they had in stock. Everything new, nothing interchangeable, maximize customer costs - nice business model when you have no real competition. So if MDT listens to ISRG customer complaints, maybe they will intentionally deploy as much commonality and re-usability in their systems and accessories to have a true economic advantage, especially with a system like Enos which was initially designed for lower budget organizations.
All IMO, as always; and... Thanks to all who continued this line of conversation in a friendly and professional manner! Would like to catch up on additional thoughts when I get a chance!
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This article sums up my opinion nicely. I’m pretty sure Medtronic is using Titan to keep Hugo development moving along as their own developers needed help while struggling with working remote. There’s probably not much more to it than that.
https://www.medtechdive.com/news/medtronic-titan-medical-robotics-development-license-agreements/579198/
Thanks Brave11. I really hope they buy us as soon as possible but their model has been to buy when the product hits the finish line. Fingers crossed that Rocko and others are right and Hugo has some of our tech, so maybe it's approval represents the "finish line" for buyout. But it might be that Enos' approval seals the deal, so we'd have at least a year to go. All IMO, and all TBD!
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With you Mustang. Unless they were working together way in advance of the June 4th agreement announcement the submittal of HUGU, with Titan tech incorporated, seems rushed as hell to me. It’s be nice to know what IP was licensed.
I'm still not convinced Hugo has any Titan tech. Seems like it came around too quickly to have incorporated anything of substance. I still think the tech they wanted is for a future system or three, maybe one that does Endoscopic Natural Orifice Surgery.
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So with Medtronic hitting the milestone of submitting their surgical robotic platform (that they partnered on w Titan to help develop) for regulatory review we now will have to wait 30 days for IDE approval. Reminder that if the FDA doesn’t respond w changes in 30 days, IDE application is automatically approved.
I thought our milestones were anticipated in May and September.
Mag, that was me suggesting Medtronic could buy us by the end of their fiscal year. Mostly being facetious, but there is some basic logic behind it. Look at their fiscal year acquisition history:
April, bought Laser Assoc. Sciences
July, Medicrea
August, Companion Medical
September, Avenu Medical
October, AI Biomed
(Digital Surgery and Stimgenics were earlier in the calendar year, but prior fiscal year).
Around the beginning of this fiscal year, MDT had indicated they had $10.9 Billion in cash plus $3.5B in untapped credit, with the intention of leveraging that for their acquisitions strategy. From the 2020 shareholders letter:
"We remain focused on investing in our business – both organically and inorganically through tuck-in acquisitions and minority investments – to keep our industry-leading pipeline of breakthrough innovations flowing. And we have increased our cadence of acquisitions."
"We will continue to use the strength of our balance sheet and financial position to supplement our internal, organic growth with key acquisitions to drive increased and sustained revenue growth in the future."
Do I expect anything to happen in the next 36 hours? No. Would it be nice? Hell Yes. Would it be in line with Medtronic's stated objectives? Hell Yes. Does it look like they have dropped the ball on their claims to continue their acquisition strategy for growth? Yup, nothing since October. And most of last year's acquisitions were small potatoes, relatively speaking, so their financial resources should remain largely intact for continued acquisitions. Maybe they've been saving up for a big one!
Maybe true; in fact I'd say likely true. Their goal was to submit to the FDA in March. Prepping a PR to announce it could take some number of additional weeks!
On the other hand, as was mentioned recently, no announced MDT acquisitions yet in calendar 2021, and the end of MDT's fiscal year is only a couple days away. Do they need to drop a few billions on one last acquisition before closing the books on their fiscal year?
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Nothing coming from Medtronic today regarding their robotic system.
BelizeMe, I don't always agree with some of the negative spin you often put in your posts, but the math usually adds up. This time I have to disagree.
If MDT owns 30% of the shares, they are still outstanding shares. They would effectively be paying themselves for those shares so they "get a refund" so to speak on the overall buyout price, but it does not discount the value of each share (including mine and yours)by 30%. It is still total buyout price divided by outstanding share count.
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Everyone keeps valuing this robot with Medtronic like they don’t already own 30% of it. That will get subtracted off any BO offer. So again, $2 billion valuation minus 1/3 of IP already paid for by MDT comes down to $1.3 B and around nine bucks a share. Woo hoo.
If you were in the medical device industry and in hospitals you would realize that the intuitive SP robot makes up less than 5% of their capital and disposable business.
Robots that have sold for $3.5 B and up we’re robots that would handle the entire amount of indications for the procedures.
In other words, Auris doesn’t need a second robot to come in and handle the more complex indications. Same with the Mazor spine robot.
Still around. Just tired of waiting and needing a weekend so I guess there isn't as much left to say until Mr. McNally starts sharing a bit more.
Don't give up! And enjoy the weekend, as much as covidly possible!
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test.
Where did everyone go?
frequent1, thanks for that post. There are a couple good take-aways from it...
Trans-vaginal hyst is approved, clearing an easier pathway for Enos to get approved for it in the relatively near future. Always easier to be an "also-ran" with the FDA! Predicate devices are a big score!
And there's this:
"The FDA reviewed the device through the De Novo premarket review pathway, a regulatory pathway for low- to moderate-risk devices of a new type. Along with this authorization, the FDA is establishing special controls for devices of this type, including requirements related to labeling and performance testing. When met, the special controls, along with general controls, provide reasonable assurance of safety and effectiveness for devices of this type."
A lot of questions raised here previously seemed to indicate there was worry about the de Novo pathway being a bad thing! Nope... on a preliminary basis, the FDA estimates Enos will qualify as de Novo and therefore is low to moderate risk, making for a much easier approval process from that aspect as well.
We're in great shape!
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Congrats to others in the RASD space. The FDA granted marketing authorization of the Hominis Surgical System to Memic Innovative Surgery Ltd.
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-authorizes-first-robotically-assisted-surgical-device-performing-transvaginal-hysterectomy
https://www.memicmed.com/
A couple reminders, to try to keep timelines in perspective... Start with clips from this article in May 2020:
https://www.medtechdive.com/news/medtronic-earnings-call-coronavirus-updates/578498/
"Eight months ago, Medtronic shared a first look at its soft tissue robot, dubbed Hugo, being developed to rival Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci. At the time, Medtronic told analysts to expect a CE mark submission for the system in the first quarter of fiscal 2021, with approval coming in the second half of the fiscal year. In the U.S., the company anticipated filing for an investigational device exemption in the first half of fiscal 2021 and launching the product in the U.S. around fall of 2022.
But progress on the surgical robot, which former CEO Omar Ishrak believed could add between 2% and 2.5% to the Minimally Invasive Therapies Group's growth rate in the next two to three years, is set back due to remote work and other disruptions driven by COVID-19.
"Our ability to finalize system and pre-clinical testing has been delayed, and given the uncertainty of the pandemic, it’s too early to update you on timelines," Medtronic’s Bob White, head of MITG, told investors Thursday.
Despite the negative financial impacts of COVID-19 on its revenue in the latest quarter, Medtronic has its strongest balance sheet in years and is looking to take advantage of the potential opportunities created in the medtech industry for acquisitions.
Martha told investors on Thursday's earnings call that Medtronic is poised to increase its merger-and-acquisition activities amid the uncertain environment, indicating financial pressures on smaller medtech companies could present buying opportunities.
"There are some opportunities that — at least I felt personally, were out of our reach, too expensive before this, and now are kind of more in line with what we think are reasonable returns for those investments," Martha said.
With asset prices down across the industry, Martha said Medtronic is looking to "play offense" with tuck-in acquisitions that could bolster the company's long-term growth.
While Martha said the company is looking for deals of all sizes, he said he prefers acquisitions in the "medium, billion-dollar" range because they have a bigger impact on Medtronic's growth rate.
Medtronic has the means at its disposal to execute on such a strategy. As of the end of its fiscal fourth quarter, the company has $10.9 billion in cash and investments as well as an undrawn $3.5 billion credit facility, with no public debt maturing until March 2021."
So... takeaways when this is tied to what we know...
Hugo publicly debuted in Sept 2019; COVID hit big in March 2020 and just two months later, they were lamenting the COVID delays as per this article. Meanwhile, they took the opportunity to tout their acquisition model for corporate growth and brag about their financial ability to do so. One month after that, they announce a deal with Titan for some development work in a heavily redacted announcement. License some existing IP, have some additional co-developed IP... No biggie, right? But how long does it take for a substantially revised platform to be prepared for regulatory submission? Let's say when the deal was announced, they already had their eye on certain patented technologies that Titan owned. Sign the deal, then start rolling that new to MDT) tech into Hugo. Given the impact of COVID does anyone really think they had time in the past 9 months to roll some new tech into their design and still have things ready for regulatory filings in a mere 9 months? Not me. For that to be a remote possibility, this deal was already rolling, unannounced, for quite a while before the announcement.
I can't picture there being substantial revisions to the Hugo that they showed in Sept '19. Certainly not anything as substantial as snake arms; the control algorithms in software alone would take that long and more.
ISRG has multiport and single port, and they had their "budget-minded" robot - the "Si-e" was it? I think the "e" stood for "Economy". Not a huge hit at the time because the market penetration for robotics was still in its relative infancy; day surgery centers weren't quite ready to splurge on a robotics program yet. Now that techniques and technologies have advanced, and even an SP Prostate doesn't necessarily require an overnight stay, the state-of-the-art tech now better supports a lower-priced offering in someone's line-up. And that is Enos.
So Enos/SPORT seemed to be much closer to the finish line until Medtronic got involved. What would possibly push these timelines out yet again, when we actually finally attained the financial resources to meet a darned schedule? Coincidentally, when Medtronic got involved, our timelimes got pushed out. One very reasonable explanation is that the project had to undergo some revisions to be compliant with MDT's market vision for robotic surgery, including their then-recent acquisition of Digital Surgery. Hugo had time to be retrofitted with data analytics and other tie-ins to that platform, but Enos had to start from scratch. This would make a viable explanation for the timelines we see from both companies, added to Mr. Martha's clearly stated growth strategy. Hugo helps them get set up with a foot in the robotic surgery door, and then Enos follows to round out their product line offering and make it possible for smaller organizations to jump in. Why would Medtronic not want to be capturing that revenue as well? Add to that Enos' endoluminal capabilities which the market is also moving toward, and MDT really NEEDS an Enos (remember Mr. McNally in near back-to-back sentences mentioning Endoluminal and Natural Orifice Surgery, and all of a sudden the rationale for the ENOS name as an acronym becomes much clearer. And Hugo, a virtual Senhance clone, isn't likely to take the market by storm on its own; they need the other pieces - Titan's pieces - desperately!
All IMO, as always...
Roll, I really hope you are right about the move to Chapel Hill! n Then we are no longer a PFIC! That or an all stock buyout would fix PFIC immediately for us. 88% of my Titan stock is in IRAs with no PFIC concerns, but I still don't want to get hammered with straight income tax on the other 12%. And an all stock transaction is even "gooder" because MDT is a nice, stable, growth-oriented stock so a good chunk of those assets would just stay in MDT until I need the cash. Not all... need SOME diversification, some disaster protection, and some play money for trading!
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Positive showing the strength and much needed as to TMDI's IP....
as Mcnally said Monday at Wainwright presentation MDT licensed 1/3 of our IP.What yet to be seen is if MDT licensed any future Patents we are granted. At the end of this situation it imo,still MDT acquires TMDI and TMDI becomes as Division of MDT operating under the name Titan Living Labs Chapel Hill USA. Simple as that. Others can think what they want.No way MDT sits around and watches Titan buildout platforms for the next few decades for competitors in a multi Billion dollar annual market place.
MDT Wants in ALL for Themselves. TMDI lease will be up come May in Toronto.OL Roll says TMDI lets it go and moves HQ to Chapel Hill and will soon be only Titan Living Labs. Just like Digital Surgery functions now under a MDT Division and retains its old name too.
All is good and should get better After March 19th.Gotta jet to work soon so I can buy the dips like BigT and Adrock..*lol......Patient as I still don't feel all giddy about Dow and markets on this small rise/rally as PUT options say the opposite and PUT players can add cheap on this rise for all next week..
Thanks Roll and Have a great day....Go TMDI....
Nice article! It re-asserts the previously presumed timeline for Hugo while providing affirmation of the progress. Doesn't really look like any specifically identifiable Titan tech is in there, which points to the joint development project as a product other than Hugo. How do they develop a product which is sufficiently differentiated from the six-pod floor hog in the picture? Probably with a much sleeker offering with single port AND endoluminal natural orifice capabilities, smaller and more portable to fit into various O.R. spaces including a small corner for storage, instead of wasting an entire room as a dedicated robotic surgery room. And one that they don't want to compete against, conceivably forfeiting half of that particular market to a small competitor like Titan. IMO, of course.
Looks private, maybe insiders. They have checked Rule 506(b) in part 6.
https://www.sec.gov/smallbusiness/exemptofferings/rule506b
Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act exempts from registration transactions by an issuer not involving any public offering.
An offering under Rule 506(b), however, is subject to the following requirements:
no general solicitation or advertising to market the securities
Also nice to see warrants for Bloom are priced at $3.00 instead of $2 or a buck sixty. Should be back there quite soon; Bloom apparently accepted the terms so $3.00 is in play pretty soon!
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Strange comment...
Let’s assume that insiders purchase stock at $2.00
If they “guarantee” themselves a ROI on those $2.00 shares, would that not indeed guarantee anyone else the same ROI on purchases at $2.00?
Typically, insiders don’t buy shares, especially significant dollar amounts of shares without feeling pretty confident in the future of their company and stock price...
Finishing the agreement with Medtronic will happen, according to the schedule. That will not get rid of the shorts; that will probably bring them forth will all the more vigor, as the conclusion of the disclosed contract milestones by itself probably will not be cause for immediate acquisition. The telling signs will be whether the MDT rep remains at the Board Meetings after the last milestone, and if they maintain approval authority over public Titan communications. These indicators, upon completion of the last published milestone, would mean that the full agreement is not yet completed, and that the ongoing vested interest in Titan would most likely conclude in MDT ownership. But when the milestones are initially completed, we will only hear about the final payment made, and shorts will have a temporary field day. They have historically been a major detriment to Titan PPS, so maybe Titan, with Mr. Martha's assistance, will offer up a just reward for the shorts with a surprise announcement or acquisition.
Fingers crossed!
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we need to finish this licensing agreement with mdt,that will get rid of the shorts,no news equals a shorts target,why else did we retrace from 3,doesnt make sense unless its our last chance to grab some more, cheap,wish they would just tie the knot already,god bless all
Nomobs20, nice post, nice to see another person posting logically about Medtronic the affiliation. I have asked many times why we would have so many redactions and so much secrecy, as well as giving them a monitor position on our BOD and approval authority for all our PRs, if there wasn't anything more to it than a simple short-term engineering/development agreement. There is no viable explanation other than MDT making inroads to the eventual acquisition. They did it with Mazor via publicized stock purchases throughout that program, and probably didn't want to tip their hand so blatantly this time around.
I need to ask... is nomobs20 for "NO MOre BS" or literally "No Mobs" or something else entirely different?
Thanks!
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Does seem like TMDI rises and falls more consistently with the NASDAQ lately, but always goes down when McNally speaks. He's like that kid from the movie Better Off Dead always wanting his 2 dollars, but instead, McNally says I want my 2 years every time he opens his mouth. The problem is nobody fully understands why or what happened to always need the additional 2 years when there's always positive momentum before he squeaks it out. It leaves a disappointing feeling if you are hoping for returns in the near. I have no doubt it all ends great with Medtronic, and we will know only what the agreement will let us know until then...very similar to how we only knew about Medtronic right at the point of delisting. Until all the cards are revealed, this money is an investment for my family's future as it will pay off (probably big-time). Anyone who invests here should look at it the same. If Medtronic's robot goes to market with Titan's IP and all milestones are hit, the only question will be how much profit this investment earns you in the end. No reason to really sweat PPS too much until then.
Roll... You guessed a volume of 1.5M shares for today and were off by less than 1%. Shameful! How could you be so far off?? Almost a WHOLE PERCENT! (Actually as a math guy, I belize that proved to be a pretty accurate guess!)
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GO read my only post here today explaining lack of volume as.....
we will should be a tad under 1.5 million...
What was today's TMDI volume at close as I called it 3 hours ago??
Sorry I missed it by 13k shares out of 1.5 million...
Thanks again for your positive TMDI support as I know it's tough to make funds buy....Maybe you are dialing the wrong number.
Thanks Roll
So if we are sitting on about $100M and we have about 100M shares (roughly) outstanding at the moment, a dollar per share of our PPS is CASH ON HAND!
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TMDI Will Rise well over 2.50++ Starting Monday as the.......
markets should rally until Thursday....That means the ride TMDI did down with SPY,QQQ,IWM will regain some lost ground. How long it sticks depends on Feb numbers later in the week....However MDT filing at some point in March 'should' help TMDI pps if the big boys connect the Dots.
A dollar is not on the table...as some hoping for.Those days were the Days My Friends we thought they'd never end...Hey,heard that before somewhere.hehe
Thanks Roll ...
Maybe someone was right about the licensing revenue being called revenue and taking us out of the PCIF category?
I haven't seen it all week! The Block function works well, and makes the iHub experience much more pleasant!
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Can someone explain to me what in gods name is wrong with the A$$ clown that posts "Timber" everyday? Clearly the chump is as clueless as they come. WOW!
Don't forget... Someone needs to yell "TIMBEEEERRRRR!" to help make our price jump!
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TMDI will finish very high tomorrow!
I thought also that the Colubris system used 3mm devices to achieve that smaller entry port size, but industry consensus seems to be that 3mm instrumentation is way too fragile and too weak to be relied on for most cases. I believe Trixie has some patented 3mm end effectors as well, and they are selling like hotcakes! Like stale week-old hotcakes that rats have been gnawing at...
Additionally, I am aware that 3mm is available for lap gall bladders but deemed to not have enough bite to work with and also too fragile, and this opinion had been validated by other surgeons. So I don't yet consider Colubnri8s quite as a competitor yet! But maybe part of a package deal, considering how tightly Mr. Vance is tied in with all three organizations.
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Belize you talk of these other robots out there for the taking BUT some are not protected with patents, hence why Mr. Vance Is now sitting on our board. No one is talking about that. Hmm....
I'm curious why folks who don't believe we will sustain $2 still want to count warrants at $2.92, $3, and above as dilution. I don't see the logic there. I do try to see logic in things, but not always successfully.
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He’s calling for 2$. Who cares what he thinks.
I'm going to try to stay above the personal attacks that have been such a mainstay of this forum for quite some time. I'll be the first to admit I have participated vigorously at times in the past, even going so far as to suggest that a prior management team had done an admirable job of developing the early technology but that it was time for someone to take the helm with more experience getting a product to market. When Mr. McNally took the helm, I appreciated the prior team for stepping aside both for the sake of the shareholders and for the good of the program itself. I certainly didn't envision at that time that we would still be this far from the finish line.
As of late, it seems to have become fashionable here to not just object to the progress of the program, but to berate the people behind it, especially Mr. McNally. If things are really as bad as some folks here would have us all thinking, then I would be in full agreement that it is also time for him to step aside. But we are far from that point, and until someone can convince me that A: MDT is just going to have their way with us and leave the sorority house in the morning never to be seen again; and B: that Titan has no viable plans beyond conclusion of the current MDT program, I think it is premature to want to dispose of Mr. McNally. Let's say for the sake of argument that he has already orchestrated the conclusion of this particular deal and it is scheduled to conclude late this year or early next year, maybe to the tune of $5B or $38.50 per share. If he hangs in here and sees this through, he will be a hero to all of us, having sailed the SS Hargrove to Treasure Island. If he were to leave, either on his own volition or due to the "I'm not rich yet and it's his fault" mentality here, we could get a total administration change a la Washington DC where all the prior work is inadvertently undone, and we are screwed. My first point here is that until we know otherwise, we don't have truly valid reasons to be so vocal against him.
However... we do have valid reasons to continue to support him. He may have orchestrated the aforementioned deal or something similar. If so, this certainly wouldn't be the time for him to abandon ship nor be subjected to mutiny. I can't disagree that we really could use more information, but having his hands tied may have been a condition of the deal. We don't know. He just might be going waaay above and beyond any reasonable expectations on our behalf. What we DO know is that Medtronic has the authority to censor his communications, and if a buyout is forthcoming, they have good reasons to do so as well. Is it his fault that he isn't allowed to skewer the entire deal by sharing too much info with us? Well, that's up to your judgment.
But is it reasonable to slander him publicly because we don't know what is going on behind the scenes? Probably not. Has he screwed over his shareholders at his prior organizations? No, they all seemed quite happy with the outcomes. And maybe most importantly, is it beneficial to publicly berate the CEO of our investment and attack his competence when we really have no actual information to substantiate those claims? No, absolutely not, unless you are shorting this stock and want to see PPS fall. Otherwise, the attempts to shake other shareholders' confidence is entirely couterproductive and makes it much more challenging to the company to succeed. Our PPS could be partially suppressed because of all this derision. Without it, our share price could be much higher and the dilution we all dislike might not have been nearly as bad.
In summary, stop shooting yourself in the foot. The name calling and bad mouthing is driving further discontent, causing lower PS, more dilution, and hindering out eventual outcome.
As always, all IMO.
Hi Facetrain!
The other part of my earlier assumptions is that this raise and the prior one are probably both part of one much grander pre-established plan. The raises may be broken up to stay under some percentage limit per transaction, and I wouldn't be surprised if it is also broken up for different organizations to participate so nobody's total ownership runs over the threshold which requires them to file SEC paperwork - because then we would see who it is when the filing becomes public. But meanwhile there could be contracts in the background for MDT to assume control of these shares just prior to, or at the time of, the buyout.
All IMO again!
I still dislike the dilution aspect (despite some claims to the contrary; I'm quite sure no shareholder likes dilution but we mostly seem to accept the need to fund operations). Trying to keep up by picking up more shares when I can, which isn't very often.
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Quick and Dirty impression of these raising "surprises":
# Estimated BO 4 Billion : 100 Mil. shares prior surprises = 40$/share
# Current depot 150.000 shares X 40 $ = 6 Million
# Estimnated BO 4 Billion : 130 Mil shares post surprises = 31$/share
# Exit 150.000 X 31$ = 4,6 Million = 22,5% less
Dilution more than 15% usually requires Share holders approval. Does anyone know whether limits exist and/or how this is actually regulated with titan?
Thanks
Facetrain
As always, this is all just IMO...
I don't see a major problem with this raise. Pre-bought again, and then bumped up further. My thought is someone probably wanted more up front but Mr. McNally may have capped it to something reasonable for dilution, and because it didn't tank the pre-market price below $2, they allowed the increase. And someone is buying with $3 warrants, so they aren't betting on this tanking any time soon. Somebody wants these shares and is willing to dump some pretty good money into it. I still wonder if pre-bought means actually pre-arranged with the initial agreement. MDT's public buying of Mazor stock kept inching their PPS upward, and they don't want to make that mistake again. Why would they do these raises? They still need to proceed with getting the product through approval regardless of who's name is on it when that happens. If MDT paid for it up front publicly, it tips their hand, so Titan is required to raise the funds to keep going. The fact that this raise is also already sold hints that a bigger force may be behind it.
OR Nurse, you also asked earlier why anyone would be so convinced that MDT will buy us. My simple answer is that right now there is only one big player in the market which is projected to reach $30B/year in the next couple years. Medtronic has the opportunity to share that market space. If they don't buy Titan, either Titan will compete with a solid technology offering, or another Big will buy Titan and then market that technology. So the question is... Does Medtronic want to compete in a 3 way race for the $30B market, or in a 2-way race? And if Titan's tech only takes 10% of the market, that's $3B per year for a lot of years which MDT would lose out on, not to mention the risk of Titan's tech being recognized as superior to MDT's own offerings, in which case MDT could be seen as inferior and only capture a TRXC-sized piece of the market. At risk for Medtronic is tens of billions of dollars in the next several years for not wanting to pony up maybe $4-$6B soon. Combine that with MDT having monitors at all board meetings and approval authority over all Titan PR's, the conclusion is inescapable - if buyout wasn't the prescribed outcome, there is no reason to restrict Titan's investor communications and no reason for MDT to care what happens in Titan's board meetings.
I'd love to see the buyout happen this year; I still don't know how much merit there is in the argument that there is no buyout until FDA approval but obviously there is some merit to that argument, which still puts us maybe later half of 2022. Slightly safer for MDT? Sure, safer knowing they are buying an approved product, but riskier in that something else could happen in the meantime to disrupt the planned deal. So there is also an element of safety in wrapping up a deal ASAP, or maybe (not unreasonably) when the Titan/MDT collaborative project comes to a conclusion this summer. When the current project wraps up, MDT would still need to maintain their monitoring of board meetings, approval of PRs, etc. if they are going to buy us out later on. Much easier to just get it over with and remove the possibility that Titan tech becomes a competitor in the market.
Jabberwocky, thanks for sharing this! Nice validation of the future of robotic surgery, without being additional competition for Titan! Great news for us!
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https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/fda-clears-j-j-s-robotic-surgery-system-for-total-knee-replacements
I got into my ISRG shares at $11.65.Wish I had second mortgaged my house at that time for more shares! Oh well... Titan will have to make up the difference!
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ISRG WAS $3 ONCE AND NOBODY WANTED TO BUY THEM. NOBODY. ISRG $799.65 TODAY.
Anyone know if today's action is putting warrants in the money? And if any are being exercised?
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TIXXF TTLLF TTXXF Titan Medical Warrants
I'm still a working stiff... no time for games like shorting stocks. I expect Trixie will be a good target for shorting quite soon; hoping to see TMDI rise at the same time! The two will likely cross over again soon, putting our PPS over theirs again - I give it about 2-3 weeks max. But one never knows!
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At what point would y’all consider shorting trxc? It really is garbage, won’t do anything competing against Intuitive, and CE Mark is probably their last piece of good press. Long Titan.
Don't forget, Senhance was ALF-X in Italy where it was CE marked in 2013. It has been on the market under one name or another for almost 8 years and has average sales of somewhere around two systems per year (including placements, leases... ). As for IP, ALF-X development began around 2002. Early patents may already be expiring. Trixie has an impressive IP portfolio by the numbers but how much of it is aging out rapidly?
It's not that Senhance can't do what it claims; it has received regulatory approvals on both sides of the Atlantic and who knows where else. The first issue is that floor space in an OR suite is at a premium. Hugo getting to the market should accelerate the Titan/Medtronic situation because as soon as Hugo hits the market, MDT will find the same issue regarding floor space. They will sell more than Trixie just because of the power of the Medtronic name, but it won't be the runaway sales phenomenon they are hoping for (all IMO, as always). The minimalist packaging and floor space requirements of Enos should prove much more popular once it gets to market, and aided by a substantially lower price tag, it should make a much bigger splash in the industry.
Mr. McNally has touted the SPORT and Enos systems as more affordable and hence more appropriate for target markets like smaller surgicenters, but I have a feeling hospitals, big and small, will be clamoring for the sleeker system, especially when price is also a consideration - which it always is.
So when MDT hits a brick wall with Hugo sales because it requires a large, dedicated OR room, they should quickly realize how badly they need Titan's offerings as their own. If, of course, they don't already own it outright by then. (Yes, still IMO. Feel free to offer a counterpoint!)
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Yes, TRXC has regulatory approval but it is without question an inferior product/system compared to Titan's ENOS platform. With TRXC hitting a Billion dollar MC at one point, it is fair to say that a Single Port system like Tian with ANY REGULATORY APPROVAL would have a MC of $4-5B and a much higher BO value.
$2... but why? Why not during the trading day?
FatDon, that's why I had said "per Billion" later in the message; I guess I should have asserted that earlier in the post. It's just a matter of what the multiplier will be, presumably somewhere between 3.5 and 6.5!
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You guys are scaring me with these billion dollar price tags, wasn’t consensus around 4-6 billion? Asking for a friend.
CrownJewel, That's entirely up to you. And depends on what you consider to be rich. Here's how I have been figuring it...
Fully diluted, we will have in the vicinity of 125M (+/-) outstanding shares. So a $1.25B buyout would mean about $10/share, or about $400K for you before taxes. Or a $1B deal is around $8/share or $320K for you.
I'm trying to get to 125K shares so I have 0.1% of the company, or $1M per Billion in buyout. Easier math that way.
As for "rich" I'd be happy with a couple million for a comfortable retirement but I wouldn't consider myself "rich" with just that, merely comfortable. For me, "rich" will require a top tier lottery win!
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I just want to get rich! Am I asking too much? 40k shares. Is it enough or do I have to get more??
Mine are all standard and SEP IRAs, a couple were 401K rollovers. Fortunately, I haven't qualified for a Roth since I first heard about them. If I had qualified, I would have been maxing them out every year! Both my kids are fairly recent college grads; I set them both up with Roth IRAs a couple years ago and put in some seed money. I need to make sure they both keep adding! And yes, both kids also own Titan stock!
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Yup, I think anything below 25,000 shares is save as 25,000 x $45 is just $1,125,000. Would only pay normal income tax rates over $1 mil only a small portion at a pretty high bo target.
And yes, no need to split IRA shares as they are either completely tax free if Roth and tax from 10- 37% currently depending on your income when withdrawn. Should be low as you probably won’t have much income, maybe $2500 to $3000 month for Social Security if retired.
BelizeMe