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I think the CEO is a smart man. The movie pass product isn't going to generate the profit they need to sustain. But, movie pass is going to get them a large customer base. So in a way they are investing into creating that customer base. And, once you have a large customer base, you can capitalize on that with all sorts of other products, and advertisement.
People need to think beyond just Movie Pass itself. Take a web site for example, you need traffic right? Once you get a ton of traffic, you can then sell advertisement. This is exactly what HMNY is doing.
They will lose money at first since this stuff is fresh you can go to theater every day, but after you saw all the movies do you really want to go to the theater every day? Right, so the cost will drop off.
What might happen is netflex and all the other competitors would be disrupted. Because, if I could go to theater whenever, am I going to still need my netflex subscription right? That's right, Netflex, and all others in the space would be worried. And that's not a bad thing for HMNY.
Threaten the big players enough, they might actually buy out HMNY.
Citron also recently bashed the company lol. They got burned bad.
Law suite seeks to recover loses for the people involved. Company pays for it, and that money came from revenue and investors.
It's never a good thing. But the people that have the power to do so can recover their loses and move on.
So then as investors, we evaluate the risks involved with investing in IPCI. SP is at 1.05 for this very reason that the company isn't doing well in general.
Continue to hold means you still believe the company will turn around. Otherwise, one should be cutting loses and move on. There are a lot of stocks out there, and it's a bad thing to be attached to one.
This I agree, they probably have other alternatives, but it's very bad deal it would likely be toxic finance and this would be headed to zero if they accept.
I think management is doing the right thing right now. They let go everyone and preserve what they can to give them time to workout something better than what's on the table right now.
They could easily accept toxic finance like selling convertible notes and this would bounce on news but it will just look like a big pump and dump when the notes are converted and dump into the market. That would keep them alive but it would be bad for whoever still holding shares.
They want to get a reliable partner to back them on the finance. And that will take time to get done.
Otherwise, if they throw in the towels it's game over.
Yeah, they can't go on it be BK next. The question now is anyone have interest with their research? If no one thinks their research is worth it, BK will be certain.
They would certainly be looking to be acquired. The CEO and the board of directors appears to be responsible enough to see to an end at least.
Letting go all of their employees would mean they don't have to pay that salary. Only like 4 guys left to tie up the loose ends.
Somebody out there probably lost a great deal of money. They had 43 million invested into this technology up to this point. It would be such a waste.
Wish it was the NDA filing for STS indication. That would have been a different story.
Knox,
The truth is, A no on RS vote result may not have much of an impact on SP. What we want to see is the actual filing of the NDA by NantCell. Filing the NDA reaffirms the deal between Cytrx and NantCell, plus potentially there is the first milestone payment.
On the listing issue, if Cytrx can't get this above 1$ and NASDAQ applies pressure, Cytrx maybe forced to go OTC. In that case it would be very bad news.
We can only hope they can buy enough time for the NDA filing to potentially jump start the share price which can avoid the delisting and does not require RS.
But, I don't know if Cytrx will make it, so that's the risk involved since it looked like a no vote. If they get a yes vote, I am concern about further dilution knowing K and how he like to have a strong cash position he'll raise because filing the IND and starting new trials will be costly.
As we know we don't trust SK. So I'm only watching for a trade opportunities for now.
weird, one of the fund sold out all 7 million shares yet SP went up. go figure.
Wimusky, I know how you guys can be frustrated but let us not jump to any conclusions or place blame on Odidi yet. We need to see the Q3 earnings first. Plus we don't know who bought the offering and invested 4 million into IPCI at 1.10 plus warrants.
With the current event I still don't see too much risk going forward. The offering was right at about Market price and basically puts in the floor of $1.10. If you bought any share below that, consider yourself lucky and bought at a discount. This would prevent the SP from diving under 1$ and trigger additional none compliance with NASDAQ.
So, I actually feel comfortable holding my shares. Now you guys have projected increasing revenues and if that falls through we should pickup more investors and increasing market cap, and NASDAQ compliance issue would be no longer a problem.
I am not concern about NASDAQ listing at all at this point. I'd be more concerned if revenue didn't come through like we expect, and then six months later we would potentially be really worried about NASDA listing compliance.
Need to see that Q3 earnings. It maybe they get the bad news out first.
Ok, so we have always knew the risk of an offering and dilution. There is actually some good news about this. First the offering price was 1.10. So, it did not cause a drop in the current SP. You could say Odidi didn't get a bad deal or a toxic finance at least no convertible notes.
For the investor who bought the offering it would mean anything above 1.10 is profit. Plus the warrants are at 1.25 and cannot be exercised until six months later, so there are some lock out period plus it's at a higher price to minimize impact to share price going forward. However, that might put a bit of a damper on the SP to not go much above 1.25 unless there is some sort of major news or revenue to justify appreciation of Share price.
I am actually glad Odidi didn't kill us out right like some other companies do. So it was reflected on the share price, with no movement.
We still need to see the Q3 results. you would think the investor knew about IPCI potentials before agreeing to such private offering to invest 4 million. Plus the investor was not named, so we may find out more on the actual sec filing. You could be surprised.
Corrections, after reading the recent 8k, Chip proposed for Saverio La Francesca as new CEO, and BSTG agreed. But now Saverio left the company resigned. The deal can't complete even if BSTG agrees to Pecos demmands.
This looked like Chip from Pecos screwed Biostage over big time. Interested to see what happens next. For Biostage to fold and close doors is not right. Someone needs to carry on the development.
I just read through their most recent 10Q and recent news and I now have a better understanding.
So Pecos wouldn't honor their agreement to fund the company and kept pushing for more demand 20% ownership and a seat on BoD. Now they want to replace the current CEO.
On the other hand, BSTG is all but broke and no money left to even fight back. So it seems they have warn in the earnings report that they as a company having issues as a going concern and would be forced to cease operations if they cannot get funding.
Well, it's clear what will happen here. A, they file BK. B, current CEO step down according to Pecos demand and company goes on.
Right thing to do for the CEO is to save the company and remaining shareholders by stepping down. But, it really sucks to be the CEO being forced out basically. Tough times for the board of directors. This is a hostile takeover by Pecos.
If current CEO gave in, Pecos will be the major owner of BSTG. But then, the science guy left too, and if Pecos succeed in taking over, I'm sure they find a replacement to get the IND going and human trials rolling. I felt sorry for the current CEO.
This one just seems to have cooled off for the time and may warm up again in the next week. I would think they can use the NantCell deal to appeal for an extension should RS vote fails again.
I feel K wants RS one way or another because he knew developing new candidate in Germany will require hundreds of millions over the next 5 years. Even with 50 million cash now, it's no where near enough. So he's planning long term because he knew he'll need to make big raises for funding down the road. The way he's running things isn't a low cost model. He took any and all opportunities to raise big chunk of funding even when SP was under 1$.
voluntary delisting to OTC could allow K to get around the RS vote and affect an RS bypassing the shareholder. But, if he does that it will kill off pretty much a lot of the current holders and make even more angry shareholders.
However, K is at his age, I am keeping this one on watch if there are major changes in management down the road, it could be a worth a while long hold. But, too much is still unclear at this point.
Seems odd they keep demanding more from BSTG though. They agree on finance, then they ask for more? Keeps dragging on and won't deliver?
Did they find out something bad and suddenly unwilling? They could have terminated the agreement and pay some cash but why ask for more from BSTG if they found out something bad?
Feels like a hostile takeover here.
If Purdue had any interest in Rexista, IPCI would be wise to try and negotiate a deal. I know IPCI might not get the best deal, but it's a start to prove their delivery tech works. Even a lesser deal is better than diluting the shareholders and risk delisting from NASDAQ.
Now Purdue apparently sued IPCI, it would means that they see Rexista as a treat to their market. So, there is that value placed on Reixsta enough for Purdue to file the suit and try to delay it or potentially even sabotage it.
IPCI partnering with Purdue would create the sort of win win situation or outcome. Obviously, Purdue would eliminate the treat of losing the market to competition, and Purdue would also ended up with a superior product. On the other hand, IPCI benefits from the profit sharing too.
However, if that don't happen. I doubt Purdue could stop IPCI and Rexista will get eventual approval and partnered with someone else. IPCI gets delayed and unable to capitalize on Rexista. Purdue doesn't get anything out of it either, and their Oxycodone market would still be threatened eventually. I see Purdue having the best interest of working this out with IPCI instead of trying to sue and delay the inevitable.
In past earnings report the company have stated that they will not be doing a raise. Instead they will sell ATM to bridge the gaps. Doing a raise now would have gone against what they said.
I would pay attention to the soon to be out ER and see if they have any mentioning of a potential raise. It doesn't take much to see that doing a raise now is dangerous and potentially risk NASDAQ listing.
They can continue to sell ATM which will still result in dilution but not as bad as a toxic finance. I would say until we hear something from the company a raise at this point is probably unlikely, but there is that small chance because Odidi have to make decisions. If the situation was bad and he can justify doing a raise it might be a small one but like I said he could just sell ATM to get the same amount.
Any investor could have bought a nice chunk knowing ER is around the corner. I think going back up to 1.5 - 1.6 isn't unreasonable given that last year we were at that point prior to Rexista filing.
Stock was diluted a bit this year due to the ATM selling but we have increasing revenue to balance that out a bit.
Going forward Rexista is hard to say when and what will happen so most people probably kept Rexista out of the equation for now until we hear something either good or bad about it.
I think most are focusing on the generics sales and potentially additional approval. Increasing sales will make the SP trend up slowly, but an additional approval under MNK deal will likely cause a big run. I don't think stock should be heading lower under improving fundamentals heading into 2018.
Unless Odidi goes to make a secondary offering for some 50 cents a share, we should not have any major down side risk at this level. The fact that Odidi didn't make an offering this year shows that he's well aware of the consequences. It would be hard for him to get a decent deal with the lender under current situation and being able to protect the share price from falling too low. Then he's got to deal with NASDAQ compliance issues which is the last thing he needs.
Making an offering at this point would be a big mistake. I surely hope he's not that dumb.
I only hold 5k shares, nothing major. There are so much opportunities out there I simply can't tie up my money this way.
10/17 RS vote could still be a no, it may bounce a bit, but delisting is real and if they can't regain compliance, OTC might be the result. There are too much risk involved when management is pushing for RS. They aren't giving up on that. And if the company really wants to, they can find ways to get the yes votes.
K wants RS to go through first before he will release the SCLC results and he may potentially raise more money after. Doing trials and developing a new candidate may cost hundreds of millions and a 10 year time frame.
However, there are still potential catalysts coming up. We might see NantCell file for FDA approval year end, and beyond 2017 but I am concerned with the RS push and potential delist.
If RS pass, it would be ideal to wait for new bottom and then buy in. If RS is a no, we have to watch out for NASDAQ delisting. Just can't ignore these risks. Most a overnight trade if no on RS but I wouldn't hold big positions under these circumstances.
The lawsuit against K isn't going to resolve anytime soon.
We should find out how Q3 ended up next week. Many of you aren't having very high expectation which is probably a good thing. Regardless, it is critical to us to see how the new product is doing in the market and how the company looks like financially.
If revenue is close to likely increased spending, Odidi can continue to sell some ATM to bridge the gaps. We probably won't see any big moments soon until later this year.
Not exactly secret since SK has been publicly saying they are negotiating with interested party way back. The funds took the offering earlier this year knowing the stock will pop on the deal. They held until then and sold out.
Yeah, I really don't like the fact Cytrx is dealing with Soon Shiong. There have been nothing but negative news reports about Soon Shiong. Just seems like shady K dealing with other shady people really isn't in the best interest of shareholders.
I would rather want to see Cytrx dealing with Novartis or other more reputable US companies. Aldox is a promising drug and NantCell apparently is willing to carry all development cost. That says something about Aldox and it's true value.
They thought the partnership was going to be more or a BO. But when that turns out to be only a 350 million partnership with vague terms, they obviously pulled out. The deal never listed when and how much of the milestone payments would be. No percentage of the actual profit sharing on sales.
With the company keep pushing for RS, tutes would be wise to back out for now. That's not to say they won't buy back in when time is right.
I think the naming is just an FDA guideline to provide drug companies directions to name a product so it's less confusing to public which might result in mistakes. For example if there were two drugs with very similar names. It's nothing to be suspicious. It does show that FDA is still working with IPCI to get things moving.
Ipokeru, I don't hang out in those chat rooms much. I only use them to spot potential pumps for quick trade. Just a word of caution if you do follow those chat rooms. Don't hold for long and be sure to lock profit if you see green. That's the rule.
Doog, we have had that discussion long time ago last year. Rexista is a big threat to Purdue. And Purdue has been under a lot of negative press so it is in their best interest to develop a new version of Oxycodone.
Acquiring a competition is the best way to get a new safer version out and at the same time protect market and eliminate competition. Not necessarily acquiring IPCI as a whole but just Rexista itself is highly likely.
Yeah, when we hit bottom under 1$ it was recovering and if you have added or buy back in then, you're in good shape already. Even if Q3 results isn't too great, it's ok. Heading into next year it will improve.
Should be an opportunity to make a double here.
I am sure Soon Shiong wanted Cytrx. Aldox becomes a success NantCell has to pay Cytrx. Buying out Cytrx will mean that he gets the other candidate being developed in Germany as well as full rights to LDAR and Aldox without having to share a dime with Cytrx.
However, we don't really know what current board of directors and management are thinking and whether or not they wanted to sell. But, I think SK does because he holds big interest in the company and the fact he is at retirement age. I don't think he wanted to hold on to 40 cents stock for too long.
But, I don't think long time shareholder wants to sell cheap at 2$. So there are conflict of interests.
Cytrx having 55 million cash end of Q2 and 13 million more from NantCell investment - 10 million debt paid they would still be at about 50 million cash and should be more than enough to go one for full trial runs for the new candidates over at Germany. Since Aldox costs are no more, Cytrx is in a strong cash position. Buyer likes that too.
I think this RS result coming up 17th might create yet another run. Personally, I think Cytrx should be able to hold out until milestone payments comes in and even buy back some shares with the money instead of trying to RS and potentially sell more shares.
What's their share structure like right now? it's been a while.
L2 allow you to see orders stacked up. You can see if there are more bids versus ask. Or if ask was moving down or up. You can react to it. But, that's a lot of work staring at the screen all day.
Yeah, Sam, the problem is Delcath couldn't get good finance last year because the lender see them as too high a risk. Convertible allows the lender to get their money back and more from the open market. They would have their risk removed and actually make good money on it.
It's concerning though because on the flip side we see good potentials with Chemosat, but then the company is saying they can't get good finance. It's like they were saying they can't get investors to help fund their projects and they had to resort to toxic finance. I mean, if the product was great, it should have no issues finding investors or even a partner. So I can see the negative sentiment here.
But, I think it comes down to management. There is little to no confidence in current management for investors to help fund their project. It will take a lot to build investor confidence. So, this management better step up to build some value into this company because on the science side, all the trial reports are positive. Hope their next few earnings report will show big improvement in EU market. Ironically, they can't grow without funding. And the current situations of running out of authorized shares don't help.
It's tough though because the CEO sort of have a bad reputation right now.
Convertible are just that, based on the terms of the offering of the convertible notes. Some actually states clearly that when converted, it will be at 75% of the market price for example. So if current SP was 1$, you get shares at 0.75. It's based on terms and conditions set on the deal. So the SP can be at 0.01 and when converted the notes holders will get shares at 0.0075. It matters not how low share price is, it will just be traded in large quantities.
Yes, they are still required to report on OTCB if you look at other OTCB stocks, you'll see they still file sec filings on any new fund raising and stock offering.
Just be sure to avoid buying in dollars after RS, then watch it crash to nothing then RS yet again. That's the killer. It literally reduce any investment to zero. As long as they don't do anymore bad financing, it should be ok. The warrants will still dilute but it should stabilize at the warrant price.
Much still uncertain what will happen after RS. Both shorts and longs will likely clear their position prior to RS taking affect, and then people will reassess the situation post RS before making new entries.
However bad this stock might have been, it made a lot of money for a lot of people.
Yeah, it doesn't help with the past two 1 for 16 RS. Just a lot of bad history that keeps people away from investing. If not for the 35 million convertible last year, things would have been different.
I think management realized they made the mistake with the convertible and they have renegotiated with Hudson Bay to exchange the notes for warrants. At least warrants have a fixed price unlike convertible you always convert for shares at a discount below market price. There is no floor with convertible, even at 0.0001 the notes holder still coverts below that price, and as long as people are still trading the stock, notes holder still profits. They could careless what the current SP is.
No doubt they will sell more shares after RS but need to watch what kind of deal they make to raise funding. Issuing more convertible is a clear signal for short and for longs to run for the hills. We would be crashing down to nothing once again.
The surprise here is that they may get earlier FDA approval using data from EU. That will really turn things around at least for the time FDA approval arrives. This stock is going to be a lot more trading opportunities.
Eltp, Delcath RS is setup with heavy dilution to follow as the remaining notes exchange for warrants. It's not going to be good long term. But short term you got many things going on that can push the price up, but don't let Dcth make you a bag holder again. Need to sell and secure your profit.
Sam, if you're short, you will want to cover because the share structure is changing. And if it pops on good news after RS, you'll be in trouble. All short positions will likely slowly close out before the RS taking place. If it pops then it's time to enter new short position again.
Plus any institutions holding shares will want an exit to sell their common shares. We will likely see one last pop like I predicted, but I don't know if we go into the 0.10-0.15 range before the delisting news.
Well, it could be possible odidi never redo the required testing potentially because he was saving money and focusing on other development until MNK deal. That be interesting then since that could potentially be an up coming catalyst surprise.
It's almost been one year since the MNK deal last October.
Guys this looks like it's the last run for an exit. Watch carefully and don't miss it at the top. Time to dump your bag in the coming days.
That scenario is assuming all wholesale and stores have full stocks of other generics. Wholesales and any distributions points are constantly rotating their inventories. So are the stores and consumers. If you're a manager you look at demand then stock your warehouse. You're constantly looking at better deals to buy in bulks.
Some warehouse could be running low and would have already stock up on MNK version. Plus, online sales doesn't care if your warehouse is full or not. The product gets advertised and consumers are constantly refilling. They will get the option to buy MNK version instead especially if pricing is better.
It depends how effective MNK market campaign is. A distributor could be persuaded to buy from MNK if they get better pricing and be able to sell to consumers for a bigger margin.
In some cases warehouse managers often slash prices to get rid of old stocks especially if it's been sitting there for long time. And again it depend on how competitive MNK is.
In any case, I do agree it will take time to establish that market. But, a single digit - low double digit increase in sales shouldn't be too hard to do with a capable marketing team. Remember, MNK just got started in June or so, they are no doubt still impproving distribution and sales to all potential customers.
So in my opinon Q3 numbers could surprise slightly, not stellar but it might not bad as bad as some of you guys are estimating.
As far as the deal with MNK and the remaining ANDAs waiting for approval, I am sure MNK would have asked what was the delay. IPCI wanting to keep a good partner would have explained the complications. We haven't been told much by the company so we have no realistic time line on when they might potentially get approval. But, I am sure MNK knew about the complications prior to signing.
In addition to that, MNK is looking to diversify and bring in new source of revenue, because they apparently have issues with their own product. I am sure they have estimates on when they can capitalize on the two other ANDAs pending.
Some times it's very difficult for a small company to try and gain market share. All the big guys will obviously protect their market share.
If I have any advise for Odidi is that he should change his strategy and seek development partner instead of waiting after approval.
True he might get a lesser deal but that's not the point. The point is that his company would fare better with a strong partner to help establish a foothold. Once they get several products out on the market, Odidi would have the resources to pursue his own dreams.