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Analysts think $0.43 per share earning for AAOI in 2024. So if 20 is aaoi target price, smci's should be 20/0.43*29*25/20=$1686
If use your 2024 earning estimate $1 for AAOI, then should use my earning estimate $40 for smci, then smci's target price should be 20/1*40*25/20=1000.
Therefore, smci's fair price is between $1000 and $1686, right?
I am thinking to short cspi at 51, but scared....
You said before smci is better managed than aaoi. Yet they are traded at simiar p/s ratio. If you think $20 is aaoi's fair value, then what is the fair value of smci?
NVDA/SMCI will rise over $1000 because
supply is rising but still unable to meet surging demand!
Thanks researcher59, I indeed bought some HALO at the market open, without full understand of rHuPH20. Does or will it have generic competitors?
HALO vs UTHR: You's right about low interest $1.5 billion debt on HALO, but UTHR has similarly earning growth, pe ratio and $2.3 billion net cash instead of $1.5 billion debt, and thus may be better buy.
HALO: management may be too aggressive, considering it has $1.5 billion debt and they basically use the debt to buy back shares. What would happen if economy goes bad?
SMCI may rise to 1468 because:
a month ago wade predicted 440 target price, SMCI rose to 1077 before healthy pull back;
this time wade raised the target price to 600, SMCI may rise proportionally to 1468 before healthy pullback.
Still have only two words for SMCI: Love It
Thanks for your great analyzes, amazing!
SSKILLZ1, you made an error in calculating 2MORROWSGAINS‘ performance. Could you check it out?
Got some IMMR at 6.75. It seems a value investment for some regular cash dividend with no growth. Thank you! Have they ever give out the special dividend?
I have good number of TSLA shares, but no reasonable person should put all eggs in one basket. Diversification portfolio still performs well during the temporary period when TSLA performs poorly, because some winners shine. Besides, nothing is guaranteed.
Are you willing to bet TSLA:
in the next 5-10 years, TSLA will rise at least 10 times.
It is an innovation business. Innovation could not be expressed in linear term.
SMCI indeed faces competition, but
It spends far more money in research and development in both total amount and percentage basis than it competitors,
it acts fast and usually progress one step ahead of its competitors, and
its CEO gets zero cash compensation and will be awarded only if the business performs well.
Based on forward pe/growth ratio below 0.5, even at 1000, it is undervalued than CSCO, HP and Dell.
reseasrch59, does my following thinking have fraud?
One reason why I bought SMCI two months ago: I like NVDA so much but worry NVDA may face competition from AMD and INTC. SMCI does business with all of these three, and whoever wins, SMCI would benefit. So I believe SMCI has lower risk than NVDA, AMD and INTC, but it is more undervalued than them.
There may be a few bubbles (nothing compared with early 2000 as well as early 2021) lately, such as DTSS and BMR, rose 1000%+ a day without reasons except false promise or unrealistic expectation. SMCI is definitely not one of them because it will grow at 50-100% in the next a few years due to high demand, earn about $40 per share next fiscal year(analysts' average estimate is 28.43, raised from 19.45 a week ago, they will raise again after the financial report this quarter), pe/growth ratio less than 0.5 even if its share price rises to 1000, and it has been managed so conservatively that it has never had a money losing year in its 17 years' history (could you name another one?).
wadegarret, how would you call the company which has never risen so much such as 500%+ but keep burning money and eventually become zero (they do rise 100% for short period occasionally due to management's false promise)? One example is a drug company evfm where I lost some money: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EVFM. Why do you think GERN is not one of them?
I only have two words: Love It
Great writing on CNXC, SSKILLZ1, thank you!
DTSS vs. QBAK: DTSS is the money losing with net debt company, yet it rose 1000+%. today , whereas QBAK is the money making with lots of cash company, its pe is about 5 based on the last quarter's earning*4, yet it merely rose 5% today, why?
CNXC is undervalued based on pe ratio, but
It has $5.8 billion debt. Besides, how is its new acquiring company, Webhelp, doing under new roof?
I still have good number of ALLOY STEEL INTL I ESCROW CUSIP COMMON STOCK in my account, so sweet.
I would short BMR instead of ARM. ARM's guidance is very strong, it is an established company with strong client base, and I bought some at $94 a few days ago. BMR may be pure hype. Unfortunately I am unable to borrow BMR shares to short.
Who would be buying BMR: a money losing low revenue little cash no growth company?
SMCI's rising is nothing compared to BMR
Up 1000+% today!
Sweet and thank you on NTCB:
I would not have known it without your post. I would hold it until $10!
Thanks, nelson1234, I thought NYCB had 50% chance zero and 50% chance over 10, and 0*50%+10*50%=$5. So 3.66 might be a good buyer.
Thanks for letting me to know NYCB insiders' buying, bullish!
NYCB: 3.66 to 4.78 up 30% so fast
seems on the way back 10+, instead of 0. Thanks SSKILLZ1 and researcher59 for informative writing up.
NYCB: Could I say that right now as interest rate goes down, loans held for investment becomes more valuable, whereas a year ago as interest rate rises, loan held for investment becomes less valuable?
Got some NYCB at 3.65, may become 0 or over 10?
SMCI vs AAOI:
SMCI has been making money every year since IPO and thus may be for long term buy and hold investors, whereas AAOI has been losing money in most years since IPO and thus may be for smart speedy traders like you.
wadegarret: at what price did you buy AAOI at the first time?
Thank you, wadegarret, you should short them, but why could not their software portion such as self driving continue to grow, just as Apple has been doing in the past?
Thank you, RNsidersbuying
RNsidersbuying: How much revenue VNDA would have earned in the last quarter in your estimate?
Why do not you think this AI related hardware+software gem worth at least $1000, based on about 40 per share earning estimate in the fiscal 2025, and 25 pe for its high growth?
ARDX: never think the situation in 2027, but she may have revenue about $100 million, and thus profitable during the 4th quarter of this year. I bought 4 blocks of shares at the price from 3.45-3.63 on Oct 24-2, have never sold and will not sell one share before 35. "Smart" analysts will tell you the company will not be profitable until a few years later.
Even if GERN’s blood cancer drug has got approved today, ARDX maybe better buy, because ARDX’s two already approved and fast selling drugs had market potential at peak 3 times GERN's, and its stock market capitalization is only 2 times GERN's.
Thanks, apatel1. Is InvestorX part of CSA/sedar?