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wade, I fully understand your and analysts' points, because just like you, I majored in Math at University. I was an analyst/statistician/teacher for 7+ years.
SMCI: Thanks 2morrowsGains. She may drop below 1000 again today due to the understandable profit taking, and then struggle at 1070 for a few days let those buying at last top off the train. Afterwards the train will run towards 1300, and will never come back. It is still undervalued because the forward yearly earning per share may be $40 and annual growth above 50% in the next a few years. The fair price may be at least $40*50=2000 at gpe of 1. Wade said forward yearly earning per share only $29 because he only used rear mirror just like average dull analysts. I am glad many investors think like wade. Otherwise I would not have been able to buy her at $253 per share 3 months ago.
I could feel the pain your selling SMCI too early. I will continue to pray for you that the share price will fall sharply so that you could buy back. Unfortunately SMCI will continue to gain market share rapidly. Along with rapid AI growth, SMCI will continue to grow 50-100% a year in the next a few years. $1300 is my near term target and $2000-10000 is my long term target. No wonder S&P has put its name on it for its long term potential.
SMCI is to be included in S&P 500 based on after hour news today. This may mean S&P thinks SMCI good for long term. SMCI may be on the way to reach $1300.
researcher59, I no longer read WSJ and anything a journalist wrote, and they may be fun to read with attractive titles but often misleading and thus have no value for sound investment decision. For example, "Samsung lead Apple in selling smart phone", but wise investors would know Apply's profit is 10 times Samsung's. They are copiers with cheap price and low margin but Apple is the leader!
Boom no more Tesla stock under $200: I believe Tesla is the best AI stock at the most undervalued price, I bought heavily at 180, everyone had their chance to buy and no one can ever say they regret not buying Tesla stock under $200
2morrowsGains: I can understand your feeling about the possible share price fall, because I had the similar feeling at the beginning of last December. I bought small number of shares at 292.2 on Nov 17, it then dropped almost daily to about $250 on Dec 7. Worrying it might continue to drop to about $80, the price a year ago on Dec 7, 2022, I spent lots of time and found that the price drop was because of the bad q3 result, but they would have excellent upcoming q4 result because of their heavy investment in research and engineering team. So instead of selling, I bought heavily at $253 on Dec 7.
I believe she will rise over $1300, once break through the $1070 barrier. I indeed sold small amount yesterday afternoon which I bought back this morning. Why? because she is so beautiful with heavy research that she has changed herself from a ugly pure hardware company into beautiful attractive AI butterfly...
Just added SMCI because $1.5 billion convertible deal with no interest convertible at $1341.38 per share means bullish!
SMCI convertible debt at $1,341.38 per share:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supermicro-announces-pricing-private-offering-051800389.html
Analysts think $0.43 per share earning for AAOI in 2024. So if 20 is aaoi target price, smci's should be 20/0.43*29*25/20=$1686
If use your 2024 earning estimate $1 for AAOI, then should use my earning estimate $40 for smci, then smci's target price should be 20/1*40*25/20=1000.
Therefore, smci's fair price is between $1000 and $1686, right?
I am thinking to short cspi at 51, but scared....
You said before smci is better managed than aaoi. Yet they are traded at simiar p/s ratio. If you think $20 is aaoi's fair value, then what is the fair value of smci?
NVDA/SMCI will rise over $1000 because
supply is rising but still unable to meet surging demand!
Thanks researcher59, I indeed bought some HALO at the market open, without full understand of rHuPH20. Does or will it have generic competitors?
HALO vs UTHR: You's right about low interest $1.5 billion debt on HALO, but UTHR has similarly earning growth, pe ratio and $2.3 billion net cash instead of $1.5 billion debt, and thus may be better buy.
HALO: management may be too aggressive, considering it has $1.5 billion debt and they basically use the debt to buy back shares. What would happen if economy goes bad?
SMCI may rise to 1468 because:
a month ago wade predicted 440 target price, SMCI rose to 1077 before healthy pull back;
this time wade raised the target price to 600, SMCI may rise proportionally to 1468 before healthy pullback.
Still have only two words for SMCI: Love It
Thanks for your great analyzes, amazing!
SSKILLZ1, you made an error in calculating 2MORROWSGAINS‘ performance. Could you check it out?
Got some IMMR at 6.75. It seems a value investment for some regular cash dividend with no growth. Thank you! Have they ever give out the special dividend?
I have good number of TSLA shares, but no reasonable person should put all eggs in one basket. Diversification portfolio still performs well during the temporary period when TSLA performs poorly, because some winners shine. Besides, nothing is guaranteed.
Are you willing to bet TSLA:
in the next 5-10 years, TSLA will rise at least 10 times.
It is an innovation business. Innovation could not be expressed in linear term.
SMCI indeed faces competition, but
It spends far more money in research and development in both total amount and percentage basis than it competitors,
it acts fast and usually progress one step ahead of its competitors, and
its CEO gets zero cash compensation and will be awarded only if the business performs well.
Based on forward pe/growth ratio below 0.5, even at 1000, it is undervalued than CSCO, HP and Dell.
reseasrch59, does my following thinking have fraud?
One reason why I bought SMCI two months ago: I like NVDA so much but worry NVDA may face competition from AMD and INTC. SMCI does business with all of these three, and whoever wins, SMCI would benefit. So I believe SMCI has lower risk than NVDA, AMD and INTC, but it is more undervalued than them.
There may be a few bubbles (nothing compared with early 2000 as well as early 2021) lately, such as DTSS and BMR, rose 1000%+ a day without reasons except false promise or unrealistic expectation. SMCI is definitely not one of them because it will grow at 50-100% in the next a few years due to high demand, earn about $40 per share next fiscal year(analysts' average estimate is 28.43, raised from 19.45 a week ago, they will raise again after the financial report this quarter), pe/growth ratio less than 0.5 even if its share price rises to 1000, and it has been managed so conservatively that it has never had a money losing year in its 17 years' history (could you name another one?).
wadegarret, how would you call the company which has never risen so much such as 500%+ but keep burning money and eventually become zero (they do rise 100% for short period occasionally due to management's false promise)? One example is a drug company evfm where I lost some money: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EVFM. Why do you think GERN is not one of them?
I only have two words: Love It
Great writing on CNXC, SSKILLZ1, thank you!
DTSS vs. QBAK: DTSS is the money losing with net debt company, yet it rose 1000+%. today , whereas QBAK is the money making with lots of cash company, its pe is about 5 based on the last quarter's earning*4, yet it merely rose 5% today, why?
CNXC is undervalued based on pe ratio, but
It has $5.8 billion debt. Besides, how is its new acquiring company, Webhelp, doing under new roof?
I still have good number of ALLOY STEEL INTL I ESCROW CUSIP COMMON STOCK in my account, so sweet.
I would short BMR instead of ARM. ARM's guidance is very strong, it is an established company with strong client base, and I bought some at $94 a few days ago. BMR may be pure hype. Unfortunately I am unable to borrow BMR shares to short.
Who would be buying BMR: a money losing low revenue little cash no growth company?
SMCI's rising is nothing compared to BMR
Up 1000+% today!
Sweet and thank you on NTCB:
I would not have known it without your post. I would hold it until $10!
Thanks, nelson1234, I thought NYCB had 50% chance zero and 50% chance over 10, and 0*50%+10*50%=$5. So 3.66 might be a good buyer.
Thanks for letting me to know NYCB insiders' buying, bullish!
NYCB: 3.66 to 4.78 up 30% so fast
seems on the way back 10+, instead of 0. Thanks SSKILLZ1 and researcher59 for informative writing up.
NYCB: Could I say that right now as interest rate goes down, loans held for investment becomes more valuable, whereas a year ago as interest rate rises, loan held for investment becomes less valuable?
Got some NYCB at 3.65, may become 0 or over 10?