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uk - you could start out with some Dec. calls, 2.50 costs about 75 -85 cents only or the 5 if you want to give up 2 dollars of any upmove and get them for probably 40 cents and maybe 30-35 cents...cheap way to protect against a surprise big move by yearend and who knows, even rare chance a decent buyout shows up...the 2.50 dec call as long as stock even holds 2.25 area in a few months should still hold about 40-50 cents so you decide things not going fast enough your risk probably about 25-30 cents...
Thanks. I agree and it will provide $74 million when they exercise.
finally getting a correction now and I am adding back some now.
Dr. Thorfin, think I mixed up the s-8 with the s-3...s-3 would be to sell stock to public but S-8 is for use for employees like options I guess to exercise no Higher than 20.69 so if this is correct that is pretty bullish long term...
dr. Thorfin, They filed an S-8 to sell 3.6 million shares at not OVER 20.69 to raise $74,400,000. But no announcement yet...can you tell me about the S-8? That does not mean they have placed that size privately and are reporting it does it? that would be very bullish to me but I assume it is what is called a shelf filing meaning they can execute that at any time up to a year or whatever time limit is if there is one....can you update me on that? Thanks!
Doc thorfin - looks like they filed to sell some stock.. 3.6 million shares at no MORE than 20.69 for $74 million
Thanks again Dr. Thorfin....both NASDAQ and two other sources, one was fidelity research link, all three show as of Dec. 2016 he was at 1.800,000 million shares...so thanks for your direct link...since it lists he CONTROLS the 3,825,000 shares then he must have about 2,000,000 in family trust or something...so great DD. Also, I was asking you if you have any insight into the fact they are billing for eye product separately til Dec 31 but have applied to continue that way Jan 1, 2018 going forward and may hear soon ?! My understanding is the fda can rule it is to be bundled with surgery and would cut revenue significantly - like 40% = maybe even half..as doctor does your experience include any of that billing detail?
Thanks doc...assume short interest off but June 15 figures not out yet...
Dr. Thorfin, presently I believe they are paid separately for the eye product until Dec 31 this year. They expect to get approved for J code (or is it C code for medicare) to continue that way and I saw something about them hearing that decision soon?! which if positive should at least add a point or two but if the FDA rules against that and it has to be bundled in with the surgery then it could cut revenue by a lot, even maybe 40%. With politics on costs what it is I will be glad when we know that decision is out in our favor..also,
while I get the math on no secondary it does make me a bit concerned that sometimes with this kind of jump they just HAVE to take advantage of it and raise some amount as smallish amount should not dilute much. Personally I would want to if in their shoes...to take advantage of this run they will need to do it soon UNLESS they know pretty immediate news will be out like EU partner....interesting to see. Also, REALLY want your opinion on buyout possiblities too doc. Thanks !
doc, home stretch time 3:30 failed twice at 24.80 resistance and had perfect breakout pullback to just under the 24.40-24.50 resistance first half of day so three pullback lows at 24.35 on 11,000 volume 5 minute bar, then 24.41 on 9,000 volume bar and then 24.45 on 13,000 bar so three ascending lows and best sign so far is extreme volume shrinkage on pullbacks....would love to see it blow to or through 25 on close and gap up tomorrow for new daily breakout which would imply 27-29 quickly....if we fail and break back off late then as long as we hold 24 area tomorrow we will set up an ascending triangle on the DAILY basis like we did on the 5 minute chart today but it has larger target implications on the daily of course...
doc - sorry on typo, that was apple of course not apply !
Doc, while I was typing a while ago the omer broke out to the upside so put up a bar chart with a bar every 5 minutes just for the fun of it - We are both long term but it is fun to watch it work on even very short term techicals to me anyway....in fact when it started moving from 15 towards 16 on way to 17 on pickup in volume = and I know context which helps greatly often = when market was weak with apply off 7 and 5 and google over 30 down two days also and biotechs weak this was swimming opposite direction and allowed me to grab a bunch extra because it was clear somebody knew something great was to be out soon....mainly doc look at volume on five minute chart when it just broke out above 24.50..so now we challenge 24.80-25 between now and close...
Doc Thorfin...Thanks for reply and stock as of about 1 pm est has a short term ascending triangle on just the daily chart which is not a certainty but great majority of time will break to upside ---with three highs at the 24.50 level so it has to break through and challenge 25 high or break daily uptrend and correct back some...question....Bret Jensen has been extremely bullish since way back at 5-7 area and put out an extremely bullish update a few weeks back when it was consolidating between about 15-17. He also has stated he believes it will be bought out before yearend...along those lines doc with all the medical evidence you kindly shared and I too knew about the eye and kidney part alone to be worth over 100 if they don't share part of it ----I don't see how a number of big pharmas are not drooling over this soon and one or more will make offers? Or do you think they will stick with offering partnerships?
Doc Thorfin, Thanks! I agree on your assessments basically....in my question to you Sat. morning I estimated market for first kidney disease in clinical now should put market cap to 6 or 7 times the 24 price or over 100 on that alone plus eye product sales for this year....I do show ceo with just under 2 million shares which would be near 5% instead of 10%...am I off on his amount or total shares out? ....it makes no difference to your point he would not want to dilute but I just like to have my facts in line...since we knew the kidney clinical worked it was just a matter of time and breaktrough gets us off and running again..thanks for your insights on all the medical potentials you understand so well....keep up the great work...oh, did see where four more officers or directors filed with sec friday and looks to me like they each exercised options to buy 10,000 shares each but at 23.75 which I don't get since they don't expire until next year..am I reading that wrong on sec forms...maybe it just was awarding them the options at this price but I don't think so..anybody help on what they did? thanks
Doc, Looks they will need capital raise on this surge since they do not seem interested in partnerships and noticed a VP sold stock this week at about 19 and 23 in some size - think I figured he held about 25% of what he exercised on options at aroung 9 and 11. They do have access I believe to 25 million they can bring in before sometime in August...missed conference call and replay not up yet so do you have any insights into a capital raise?
Looks to me that they should get 2 billion or more of Soliris present 3 billion sales and with a billion market cap it about values ratio of sales on the eye product...so even 3 or 4 times the 2 billion should allow for a six to eight times run of the 24 unless they partner and give some up or dilute...your opinion please on this...thanks
agree! thanks board - mako effect dying...mako article was not for shorts at this low a price but good news is his effect is dying...yesterday morning I had visited a 92 year old ex-marine across town who is the father of my next door neighbor....at mid day when back checked ipix and saw something was going on -- pulled up five minute chart and by close there were four times of quick large sales of 75,000 three times and 100,000 once in about 5 minutes and each time it knocked sp from about 75 to just under 70. What impressed was enough of you saw value to jump in and it bounced back each time! I was able to add twice too..so late yesterday checked into this board and THEN found out Mako had caused price action so I was impressed he couldn't pull out but 800,000 or so in sales Adam has more influence than mako now imho...Now if insiders buy at market prices would be nice but Leo addressed that in conference call when asked about stock price and low cash reserves by pointing out he does not want to dilute stock as HE IS A LARGE SHAREHOLDER - in his own words not mine.
georgeski - 3:40 7,483 shares and look out ABOVE !! right?
FarFar --thanks for your two updates
Exactly! Management buying IN THE OPEN MARKET at current market prices instead of cheap priced options they have been awarded means only ONE THING !!! funny bunny .... and that is that they are in a position to feel strongly that something is happening in the company that WILL PUT THE STOCK PRICE UP A LARGE AMOUNT IN THE SHORT TO INTERMEDIATE TERM. It is the strongest fundamental buy signal there is...so should CTIX insiders start buying you better add city fast!
Houndski thanks! good to know you can access that....I have been around markets a while or so and have to believe they had customer or they were short and dumped about 100,000 on super quiet afternoon hoping to cause a bit of a panic to .75-.80 cents but as I say a big enough buyer or a number enough medium buyers stopped the last 30,000 twice at .90 area after it hit there and then that buy block over 20,000 put it to .92.....just don't think someone "just" selling 110,000 would not feed it out over several days and skip a super slow day like today rather than take probably $7,000-$8,000 less than they could have gotten...anyway stopping that today and decent close would be pretty positive to me. Thanks again, hope I don't have to call on your market knowledge again and after a couple partnerships this dumping stuff can't work....and by the way, if the sec had not changed the shorting rule when they allowed markets to leave the 1/8 bid ask spread and went to a .01 spread or penny and allowed shorting on downticks these bear raids could not happen....used to could only sell short on upticks....that would end these bear raids right away by definition.....
good now we have over 16,000 bid at .92...if we can continue back up towards a 1.00 by close that will look good as overall biotechs off past three or four days and we have done great...
Hound thanks...I checked puma but I don't know how you know it is them unless they are doing it as market maker and show there offer.
What I don't get is this..one of handful of slowest days of year preholiday and after noon all of a sudden about 80,000 shares at least are dumped in three five minute bars driving it to .90..seems like big enough buyer or buyers like you and others jumped in as another 30,000 were dumped in that next 15 minutes but buyers took it and they could not drive it below .90 basically then a buyer grabbed 20,000 back up to .92......so it makes no sense for a respectable selled to do this and give away probably at least 5 cents and maybe 7 or 8 cents if they had fed it out more gradually...so I am thinking someone got short and dumped hoping to get sharp slide....still wondering if adam tweeted or someone else in that short group....after partnerships (plural) in July short attacks won't work.
hound, who is PUMA? a brokerage house? I checked seeking alpha nothing there yet,,,
did adam tweet or negative seeking alpha article come out ....drop seems too sudden for anything else....another buying chance before July news...
slcimmuno - no big deal but I remember merck paying over 9 billion like maybe 9.5...which we beat by a hair head on in clinical but with three applications or one day also verses their seven days which a number of patients would not follow through on so we are clearly much better plus one dose boom! no resistance...
Easy rider1 thanks! I was wondering who Druggan is...wow..find stuff in unexpected places,,I had noticed he purchased a huge amount of a stock that is under 1 that I also love the company's prospects and since he was over required ownership amount needed for sec listing did so....when I asked someone at the company who he was they have no idea who he is...thanks to you now I do..!! hard to believe CTIX is under 1 also....partner in July August should end the under 1 stuff for us then and never look back !
Bostonsportsnut = not news, we have known that beforehand, he will get destroyed in the end because the science is now proved for sure good enough to be approved before it all over and done with and his shorts will get ruined when a big pharma jumps into this eventual winner!!!! Cheers.
runn - Great news!! because I predict no financing needed as these figures should certainly draw a number of big pharma partners and no financing needed! This will catch bears when stock price explodes on the news and it will...when not whether is question...in next few days? few weeks? or few months? it will happen. and runn, I think the .01 was safety study reading....but DO NOT GET CAUGHT UP IN DEtAILS...focus is on DOES IT CLEARLY HELP PATIENTS. Just go back to that over and over...because that is a yes..YES and has to win out at some point...I think we see big pharmas knocking at the door soomer rather than later..
runncoach, I do not see a result with p factor under .05 which is what you need imo...adam will use that against us...one group was near it at .07. So we need a larger study to see if we can get that number down under .05....stock has traded 8100 shares and is at price of 13.50 area so far.....you are correct that it does seem to be making a difference and they will do next phase....I would say it almost has to be approved at some point but the .07 needs to get under .05 in larger trial to lock in best chance for FDA approval...we will have to see if conference call changes things. People go on these numbers a lot but this could be chance to get some stock cheaper...but .05 or less is considered the level or below where there is no chance it is statistical fluke. Now at 14.50 on 10,000 shares so heading right way..what is interesting is that only fact that REALLY COUNTS is DOES IT WORK FOR PATIENTS AND IS IT SAFE WE ALREADY KNOW IT IS. Because if both or true it will get approved and stock will be worth huge amount...does not matter if p is .07 if FDA believes it will help patients so this is really interesting, almost passed the .05 test but not quite so most think it will be a close call or even not approved unless phase 3 gets under .05 but this definitely looks like it is huge winner, how long it takes market to understand this remains to be seen...but I still now predict price in 700 area or higher within a year or two and I will post one more idea.
Wolf, & everyone who knows what adam f is about..and thanks for heads up Wolf....if you go to benzinga .com website and go to bottom click on contact us and they give an email slot for a message...so tonight ask them why they want to ruin their reputation and lose thousands of customers and potential customers by having adam with about as poor a reputation as anyone show up....and add know you don't need to waste time with their comments in the future on any financial subject..
Real Target Prices.....pretty much understood if trial fails NTRP would probably hit 2-4....but what if it hits other extreme and works really well enough to show likely approval? Well there are ways to come up with possibllities of the upside...if it works NTRP would command most of the entire market....so question is what is that market...well depends on price of course they receive....so let's use a somewhat low figure of 8 billion dollars. Gilead got 10 billion and 12 billion a year the first two years of their hep C drug sales and ALZ should be a much larger market...so 8 billion is a real potential number for sure...For this type disease companies sell for 5-8 times potential revenues so using 6 would give 48 billion...using today's market cap gives about 3500 price...if they have a big pharma partner and keep 25% that is about 880..so it won't surprise me if it trades at 80-110 right away or even 210 for that matter...if the results are excellent...so there you have it...anywhere from 3 to 333 maybe...nice for the chance to be part of it in this good ole free enterprise US of A !!
F1ash - Thanks for post on Alkon' history...knew that but great to find condensed quote like that to have for friends to see! thanks..and also you are almost always on top of things but noticed you listened a bit to Mag about maybe needing another drug with Bryostatin...should not be the case and anyone thinking that should not be long here...this drug does at least 4 things and maybe 5...it prevents ALZ by blocking the signal from the gene that triggers it..
look at last 30 minutes and use a one day five minute time per bar for a bar chart....sitting off a bit at 3.04 then starts picking up and look at last five minute bar! huge volume and spike in price..hope they know something real...should find out early tomorrow.
Lunacy no really big volume day yet and we have to be discounting the signing but when signed some simply will not buy until certain so I would still expect a much bigger volume day and some sort of pop in price...
Thanks chessmaster and coolec !!
exactly Donsker, exactly
xX - nice post, really nice post, very much enjoyed that! thanks
Runncoach and Ray - first look at my post about noon, 3916...pls. to close off anyone claiming insider sales understand that quote, the window is IN EFFECT...ON INSIDER CAN BUY OR SELL period ! THE END!! Just calmly point the fact out and say end of false rumor...Secondly, Runncoach, that list of the shelf - please just ignore that person, don't answer, when they say shelf shows big insider sales...that shows super ignorance as it is printed way SEC requires....I know someone on that list and it means the opposite, they BOUGHT that large amount of stock....can someone on the list sell...if stock is legal for that - I haven't even checked because those are essentially buyers and doesn't matter right now about selling - but I would assume it is registered etc and so let us go on that yes they could sell it but they JUST BOUGHT IT!!! so the shelf has nothing to do with selling shareholders AFTER THE SHELF for gosh sakes....ONLY THE RESULTS OF TRIAL MATTER NOW..PERIOD now this bearly guy Friday threw out that bad news leaked at lunch and we will hear about autopsies which cannot be true since that would be inside information and check him out...been on ihub only 2-3 weeks and says he is short (though his 30 call hedge he throws out at about 8.50 each last week would have cost him about $26,000 so I doubt it) so he throws out short negative false rumors like "patients die" which we all know they do now but he is IMPLYING WITH THIS STUDY of course so another one to ignore..
Ok Cad, one key is price you own stock...for example say 20. first to simply protect for a big drop if trial is negative...you need a put option strike of 20...because it is clear to everyone a real positive or real negative result will cause probably a drop of about 90% or gain of 300% to some estimate 800% or more they are charging a lot to sell you an option to cut their risk...so market right now is about 10 for the May put strike at 20....which means your protection cannot be more than about $600 to $800 which is you can put your stock to put option buyer at 20 (it means sell it for 20) and buy it if negative report puts it to 2 to 4 for that. So you make 1600 to 1800 per 100 shares BUT YOU HAD TO PAY 10 OR 1000 FOR THAT RIGHT TO DO THAT... which means you net the $600 to $800 only and you paid 2000 for the hundred so you STILL LOSE 1200 TO 1400 if the results are negative...plus if the report is super postitive say stock opens at 60 then you do not make 4000 but "only" 3000 because besides 20 for stock you lose the 10 or 1000 on the put as it is worth nothing....what I do when they have options is this. If chance of huge gain or huge loss you can take the 2000 and not buy stock at all...you can buy high out of money calls like the 30 May call for about 350 so three would cost you $1100 which is you protect about the same $1200 risk ( if you don't protect and it is negative and drops to 2-4 you lose 1600 to 1800 instead of $1200..now if it is negative you simply lose the $1100 but if it opens and goes to 60 you make more than outright 100 share $4000 or protected 100 share $3000 because you control three times more stock and are happy to give up 10 points for the right since you will make 3 times #3000 or $9000 so you risk $1100 to make $9000 and that will vary based on where it goes 45 or 120 etc... only thing is NEWS HAS TO BE OUT BY EXPIRATION WHICH IS MAY 19 OR JUNE 16 if you want more time but you have to pay more for the JUNE extra time length....so pick what you are most confortable with and only other fly in the food problem would be an inbetween result where stock stays between 18 and 22 but in NTRP situation that should be about 3% or less chance..good luck!
Cad, let me help you out...it would be a buy to open if as it sounded like you own the stock and are buying a put to protect..there is a better and cheaper way if you are interested..the only parameter you have to accept is that you accept the news will be out before expiration in May or June option expiration...since news should be out this week may should do even it runs into next week or even the second week of May...you want how accept that one limiting factor - and you are accepting it anyway even if you buy a put for protection on the stock - it will protect only till May or June expiration date..let me know if you want a best approach..
FACT - NO INSIDERS CAN SELL NOW as the window is there where it is not allowed...the shelf listing of people makes some people think those are sellers but it does not mean that at all, it is the wording the SEC requires. I know one of the people listed and he PURCASED STOCK TO HOLD FOR THE RESULTS and if the results are great then most -imo - would hold for long term...