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Yes, amazing how life situations can allow you take higher risk.
Back then if I lost the $10K, it would have been devastating. If I lost $50K today in Sigma, wouldn't be thrilled, but wouldn't hurt at all compared to losing $10K back then.
And as you said...$40K is not life changing at all. Maybe I can remodel my backyard patio? or add a hot tub to my pool and get my wife the boob job she wants? A million or two can change things though.
You know what haunts me and why I chose to invest in my first "pink slip", that being Sigma Labs?
I was trying to make a decision between two stocks in early 2002, Monster Energy Drink, huge risk, but high potential, kinda like Sigma Labs. Or it was eBay who has already established a foundation, had solid revenues and far less risk, kinda like 3D Systems. I had $10K to invest, which to me then was a lot of money. Wanted to dump it in MNST, but was way too scared and went with the safer route.
I chose eBay, which netted me about 400% return when I sold, if I held till today, would have netted me about 600%. So my investment went to $40K.
In the same way if I had bought Monster Energy Drink, I would have netted 15,800% return or $1.58M assuming I sold around the same time as when I sold eBay. If I held till today, then a 34,100% return or $3.4M.
Now my rule of thumb is never let emotions guide your decision, but this one I still can't shake off, it haunts me, so I decided to take a calculated risk in Sigma Labs. It is partly an emotional investment, but at the same time stories like Sigma come across once every decade, at least I couldn't find one as good since Monster Energy Drink.
Good Luck!
Broke above the wedge, next major resistance should be the 200 DMA at around 0.135. Best scenario would be to see consolidation in the 0.135 range, take a breather, then push to break above 0.142 which has been an issue in the past.
My phone keeps blowing up...my broker won't leave me alone.
Keeps leaving messages saying I need to add more funds, or they will be forced to close out my Sigma position.
What they don't know is that I can still mortgage my home!!!
I hope some of you have learned not to get too emotional. It's easy to feel confident when the price is rising, it's human nature. But true test of emotional strength comes when PPS falls, and you are in the red. I personally was up about $5.5K today on Sigma, and watched it all disappear. No biggie, because I always gear for the negative rather than focusing on the positive.
On the positive side, we did learn new things today. Gave better clarity as to where we are, and where we are going.
Days ago I talked about reality vs. expectation. Something many on this board needs to learn (for me it took a good decade through trial and error)
If none of us were expecting INSPECT to release this year, and they came out with this news, then we can expect a big PPS increase. However, since our expectation was that it will be released, all that PR did was confirm it. Confirming expectations does not warrant a major increase in PPS, but rather justify the PPS it's currently trading at.
Good luck, I know some are bummed, but nothing has changed, story only got better, and once revenues start rolling in we will be good.
We talked about this before either, though it be important to bring it back up.
Many of us are core investors, meaning we are here for the long term and hog majority of the shares outstanding. This stocks daily trading volume is around 2M out of the 650M shares outstanding...that's 1/3rd of 1%. It is very common to see huge spreads between bids and asks as there are very little shares available to buy or sell.
In situations like this, you should expect huge volatility, especially on days that news are released, good or bad. Prices rising fast, prices collapsing fast. We lack the micro transactions to solidify a true market place. It's not always the volume, but rather how many transactions it took to get that volume. The more transactions, the less volatility you should expect.
Every time I add 1+1, I get two. But you keep coming up with 11. What am I missing?
I haven't even bought the Champagne.
You know what would be interesting, is if this price reverses and gives up its gains.
Interesting in terms of watching peoples reaction. First it's MM's are caught without shares, then it will be MM's manipulating the stock.
When the news again was ok, but nothing substantial.
It should Porsche, might get a bit bumpy as we do a little daily consolidation (as we have been from .12-.123), but all the major daily indicators (MACD, RSI, Stoch) crossed, this has legs to run some more.
Ill ask you a better question? How much revenue do you expect Sigma to generate the rest of this year on INSPECT?
I think mine is around 11.5% or so...and that's how I see ...reckless, first OTC ever, with huge potential payout.
8k shares is about $800..no? Or is Sigma trading at a $1 pps now? Did I miss a $ 40m contract announcement with GE?
And some of us are calm...we know how to keep a fine line between reality and euphoria.
I bet your awful at poker.
Yes but all it did was confirm your expectations a bit more. My argument is to those who's jaws fell to the ground in shock that stock price did not go up.
As I said... that news... made me feel a bit better about my position as it did with you...it isn't significant for me or you to want to buy more.
It simply reaffirmed what we already expected. That's how the stock market trades....expectations vs reality. This is why you see stocks collapse after a great quarter, because the street expected more.
Just ask yourself...was this news big enough for you to buy more? For me no. Was it news that raised a red flag and wanted me to sell? For me no. That's how 99% of you feel and that's why we are where we are.
EDIT:
Now if news came out that they secured a contract with GE for $2Million to equip 20 of their machines, and plans to potentially equip another 80, and the stock jumped to say 0.30 cents. I will not only allocate the other half I was saving to buy this in case it went to 0.06-0.07 range, but might even sell some of my other securities to allocate more to Sigma even at 0.30. Because I would have not expected that news.
Now imagine news came out this way. Sigma labs secures a contract with GE for $200K to equip 2 of their machines. If results are satisfactory over the next 12-18 months, additional contracts to equip other machines may be granted. Well news like that would put a big dent in my expectation and I might even reduce half of my position. And wouldn't be shocked if stock price went down. Why? because I think some of us are expecting more.
It's all about your/others expectations vs. actual news. Sigma Labs isn't trading at a $75M market cap for nothing...a lot of our expectations are baked into that price. Anything short, would cause the stock to go down. That's how it works.
means nothing maybe was harsh. What I was trying to say is that what they said isn't really anything more than what we expect or know.
Yes we expect it to be commercialized, yes we hope that one day it will be standardized etc. But it's not fact, it's a belief, a concept, a prototype, something that is being worked on...as of right now at least.
I think some were just expecting news like that to move the needle. It isn't groundbreaking news, but simply a confirmation that they are still working on everything they said they are working on. I still have money to throw at this, and when I read that, I did not have an "aha moment" and buy more of Sigma.
I personally didn't learn much from that, but was re-assured a bit more than before. This is how I took it at least, maybe others saw it differently.
Sometimes how I say things may come across a bit off, I apologize for that in advance. These conversations would be much easier if we were watching football, eating wings and drinking beer.
Exactly. "team believes", that means nothing.
Team believes that time travel will revolutionize the travel industry.
a.) Significant cost savings to the consumer
b.) Positive environmental impact by eliminating gas emissions and other hazardous waste
c.) Significant improvement in everyday efficiency due to time to savings (spending more time with family, no more 2 hour traffic, always on time to work, bankrupt "gotomeeting" since now I can appear live in seconds etc.)
EDIT: Not saying there is nothing there, don't misunderstand me, just agreeing with Wind why the news doesn't carry much weight.
Can be yes...and I'm sure they are. Since GE assisted in the testing and development, I'm sure they will get special pricing.
However, if this succeeds, I don't think we should assume that GE contract pricing is an indication of future pricing for future clients.
Thanks, good enough for me.
Only thing that concerns me is how much of the pie the other members are getting. Since many entities seem to be work on this with Sigma. I hope it's not one of those revenue sharing situations, and if it is...that its minimal. Maybe i'm missing something, and thinking down the wrong path. If so, steer me in the right direction.
Agreed its unheard of....only way i wouldn't probably want a buyout at that price is if I had say $2-5k invested...then $20-50k isn't going to increase my heartbeat much.
but being at 580k shares (I know it doesn't compare to some here) hard to say no to $580k especially since I held 80% of it over a year to avoid short term gains tax.
Plus my wife wants a boob job, she would make me sell it.
If they had a buyout offer at $1+ a share I'd vote yes.
Agreed, and honestly there shouldn't be any inquiry on up listing.
Sigma Labs is nowhere near ready to trade on any major exchange. Jumping the gun to up list can have negative consequences if we aren't ready.
Where is our HR Department? Finance? Accounting? IT support, Sales team, robust executive management? Doesn't exist, so there is no reason to talk about up listing.
Not saying you can't, but what's the point, to gain some short term fake exposure, and watch your stock collapse after real investors start asking some of the questions some of us started to ask? They will be dumping like flies.
Big market exchange boys aren't as patient as a lot of you are here on the OTC.
I didn't, but since you brought it up should we expect same success for their new products? If so, let me sell now.
And if we are not, let's not talk about the little paper airplanes they sold for a dollar back years ago.
I'm in the same boat. I see things from the business side as well, because I live it and breathe it daily.
Sigma is a baby, so we can't expect it to wipe it's ass just yet, so we are willing to be patient. However, we are approaching 12 months, and the baby is still crawling and hasn't started walking. Red flag, but that's why hopefully it's parents can give us logical explanations as to why the baby is still crawling.
I think that is all some of us are asking.
I don't know, I was just responding to the back and forth on whether or not Sigma has a product or not. I was being the douche giving the actual definition of a product.
I stated it many times before. I don't care how much the thing is delayed or the potential or whatever. I know the potential, I know what they are trying to accomplish, I just don't know their plan, progress, or timeline.
What I will be looking for in the 9/11 is what I look for in many companies I evaluated and did consulting work for. Does the management have a clear plan/strategy and can they convey their vision to the shareholders. If they fail to do so, then I'll consider the 9/11 call a failure and I will reduce my position accordingly.
Going to jump in and defend Dave/Charlie.
Sigma does not have a product and it does NOT exist, as much as you would like to believe they do. Now a prototype, some beta version of a prototype, or some form of an idea exists, but a product does NOT exist.
Anyone confused on this, can look up a simple definition of what a product is. I'll save you the time.
prod·uct - an article or substance that is manufactured or refined for sale.
another definition - something that is made or grown to be sold or used
In summary, a product is something that is ready for sale or something that is complete, sitting on a shelf ready for sale or use. I don't think Sigma is at that stage yet.
Note that I'm being very technical, I get what some of you are saying, but by definition he is correct.
I think you can expect to see PPS rise up until 9/11 in the anticipation that it will be favorable. Each day you wait...it will be more expensive to buy.
Then 9/11 will dictate PPS favorably or vice versa from that point and on.
I'd like think that 9/11 will be great, but I'm approaching it with the possibility that we won't hear what we want to hear.
Yeah that's all it was...a potential forecast. Once we know more we can adjust. And it really isn't a lot of work...maybe 10-15 min of my time.
It wasn't meant to be "this is how PPS will be based on those scenarios" but rather "this is what the PPS will be based on those revenue scenarios AND assumptions used"
Those that worked at a big company and had the opportunity to attend financial analysis/planning meetings and discussions would get it.
and for the record, I'm not making predictions. Thus, I listed it as a grid, and did state that I will update as we find more information.
You see, I'm one of those people that plan everything out, I want to know the likely scenarios, and adjust as I gain more intel. Proper planning leads to success, not the wait and see approach. At least, that's how it works on the business side of things. If there is a new business venture, we make models and forecasts, knowing they won't be exact, but gives us a foundation to build on.
Maybe the wait and see approach can be applied to "watching your friend skydive first before you do", or "before I start doing blow, let me see if I got the job first".
Yes and you simply misunderstood the point of the PE ratios I was "citing" in previous posts, and never posted actual margins.
Someone mentioned that a 50 PE ratio can be used, and I simply responded that newer companies typically have a much higher PE ratio.
You are then taking that point, and now want to use every metric in those companies and model it in Sigma. It would be kinda silly to take margins of HPQ or DELL, who are essentially hardware manufacturers and apply it to Microsoft who is a software manufacturer. Wouldn't it be?
If we are going to compare something, let's try to be as realistic as possible. And AGAIN, if its pointless to you, stop wasting your energy typing.
Ok got it.
Actually the 25% I had was profit margin prior to taxes. If we are using Net margin (which I have as % of sales) then its 19.3% which is close to your 20%
I posted PE ratios...you posted the margins. I was simply giving PE ratios of some newer companies in the industry to explain that PE ratios of startups tend to be in the 200-500 range not 50.
Dont take one concept in a post and try to apply it to this concwpt.
Im not running scenarios for a manufacturing company and using its metrics to model a software type company.
I believe my projections are realistic, you're welcome to do your own. And if its pointless why even bother to post on it and ask to rerun with lower margins.
Sigma Labs PPS Projection at various revenue scenarios.
Please note this is modeled after Intel's financials (GP%, PM%, Income Tax %) Also, let's be realistic, this is a model not something set in stone. I plan to update this as we find out more about Sigma's revenue.
The highlighted yellow/green/blue boxes indicate most likely range the PPS or Market Cap Sigma will trade at given the revenue scenario. The more revenue a company produces, PE ratios tend to scale back. While in early stages where significant growth is expected, PE ratios can be very high.
So for example, if Sigma secures $2.5-$10M in annual revenue, we could expect the PPS to trade anywhere between 0.16 to 1.58 per share as the most likely range.
Trying my best to upload the image, looks fine to me, but might not on a tablet or phone.
Yes, but look at the next leg up...0.117. That's why I said this morning that betting short and guessing wrong can take your house and give you a divorce as icing on the cake.
Then that is great indeed. Can't wait to gain more clarity on 9/11. We will get a taste on how Darrow Associates is prepping Sigma for the investor meeting. Be interested to see this one in relation to the previous without DA.
When did they release those statements? Is this recent?
To follow up on Chris Witty...
Darrow Associates - services they provide
http://www.darrowir.com/services.php
Darrow Associates - Team members
http://www.darrowir.com/team.php
Chris Witty is listed as a team member.
Conclusion:
Sigma is using expertise of Darrow Associates for Investor Relations. Though it would be nice to have your own dedicated employee for this, I kinda like the move Sigma did to use an outside agency vs. paying someone a full blown salary. Chris Witty is not a Sigma employee.
I would encourage all to read in detail who Darrow Associates are and what they do. It is very encouraging, and gives you an idea where Sigma might be headed based on what DA does.
Seems like our Investor Relations guy isn't a Sigma employee?
Is he? Or did Sigma contract with an outside Agency to use his service?
http://sigmalabsinc.com/index.php?page=investor
Investor Relations
Darrow Associates, Inc.
Chris Witty
cwitty@darrowir.com
646-438-9385