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I think that's where they plan on investing their gains from the sale of ERHC. If they plan to use that entity to buy ERHC it will be lawsuit city, and rightfully so. *They* drove ERHC's share price into the ground, *they* can't buy it now.
There has never been a comprehensive drilling report released by either company. Sinopec has never even PR'ed the results... not a word. Add to that that Louis Prazeres said that "oil was found in the quantities expected, and a lot of gas"
Something is going on in the JDZ. It may be sinister, or it may be strategic, but those blocks need to be followed indefinitely.
I'm pretty firmly set in my opinion that ERHC is far more confident than 20% on this well, and given what they have done to shareholders over the last 2 years realize there is no future for the company. Trust has been destroyed... completely.
A sniff of oil in Kenya and the company will be sold to CEPSA. Kinda makes sense that CEPSA indefinitely suspended that 2nd well. It would only drive up the price of ERHC.
I doubt we get to the 4th of July with ERHC still existing. If there was another plan Ntephe wouldn't have done what he did (3B dilution wipeout of shareholders while buying like crazy) and wouldn't be doing what he is doing now (proving he lied when he said "when the time is right" he would "excite the market")
This isn't perfect, nor do I think it's what they wanted, but this is the end-game IMO.
I won't be surprised to see them be stupid enough to try to steal the assets, and I expect that a Class Action suit to stop that theft will cost them more than if they include shareholders in the gain. Blind greed, and/or and lack of understanding, IMO.
Billion dollar thefts don't get ignored. That's why I keep diligently following the JDZ. That story is being covered up, and when it surfaces that there is oil in those blocks ERHC and Sinopec need to be held accountable for their lies.
600-1000, total depth is 3000
According to you there is no BOD, now suddenly there is?
If he were a true leader, as in CEO material, he would make a statement that dilution is off the table.The share price would fly.
But he won't. The coward will always keep "screwing us" in play rather than perform like a real leader.
If there is one thing that Peter Ntephe has shown is that he will take the easy way out at the expense of shareholders every single time. We are not human beings, we are consumables to that animal.
The whole thing is pathetic, and Offor does nothing, the BOD does nothing... if they even have a BOD any more. Maybe they all bailed because of the stench.
Who knows?
Answer: It is minimal.
That "scheme" is a joke to anyone that can comprehend that you don't throw away $300K to net $20 for a couple of months.
The whole idea is preposterous.
I agree with that last sentence, COMPLETELY.
He said he would, but surprise, he has failed to deliver.
You are valuing a discovery at Tarach-1 of 1/2 the unrisked estimated volume at less than 90 cents per barrel.
Ridiculous!
I believe they bought because they felt the shares were grossly undervalued. I also believe they are not buying now because they are in possession of inside information that would be illegal for them to trade on.
The notion that they bought to create an impression is nonsense. Would you throw a years salary away to create an impression??? It's not like they could extend their salaries 5 years by buying. The convertibles raised a scant $2M, most if not all of which went to drilling costs, not salaries.
The theory that they bought to entice buyers to extend their salaries is nothing more than fear mongering.
What you are suggesting is nonsense.
Let's say you make $100,000 per year. I want you to take $100,000 and throw it away to insure your paycheck for a month or two.
That's what you are suggesting. The company raised $2M with convertibles that destroyed $75M in market cap (96% of the market cap). That $2M was spent on getting to this drilling at Tarach-1... a small fraction of it went towards salary. IMO, very, very much reduced salaries at that.
With a current market cap of $2M they can't raise enough to buy a happy meal IMO.
More convertibles isn't the answer. More convertibles simply will not work.
They have recently invested $300K of their own money in this stock. You can keep fantasizing about massive dilution, but it's just that... a fantasy.
Maybe. We'll see soon enough.
The unrisked estimate for Tarach-1 is 66M barrels.
- Cut that in half
- Multiply ERHC's share by $12 per barrel
- Assume 35M shares outstanding
That alone gets us to $4 per share. What intangible value will the market assign to the remaining 90% of unrisked estimates in the block since it has now been derisked?
If Tarach-1 hits oil this stock will be $10-$20.
Ntephe's failure to take convertibles off the table is the sole reason the share price isn't moving. Peter Ntephe was, is, and always will be an impediment to shareholders making any money. He isn't CEO material, period. Not by anyone's definition.
He is Offor's puppet, owned and controlled by Offor.
To my thinking his salary isn't worth giving up his ability to think and act, but some people will do anything for money.
Convertibles need to go. With a well under way this should be $1-$2, matbe more. Ntephe is too inept to see that.
It's sad.
No, it would be $1.86 pre-RS (and pre-convertibles, which is what I think you meant)
Most certainly still doable with a discovery.
You realize that those shares are also being bought, right?
The only significant dilution we face now is *IF* that strategic investor ever shows up. They can't raise enough through convertibles to buy a happy meal right now.
This is a very clear case of "if you're in, you win, or go broke"
If oil is found this company and its share price will be transform overnight. Depending on the size of the discovery, a 200X rise in share price is possible. Will there still be time to make money on it after that much of a rise? Absolutely. Just to be fair, if oil is not found, it's game over.
It's my opinion that the major effort underway to undermine the share price and undermine the value of any discovery comes from those that know the value of undeveloped proven triples once developed. The lower the share price is after a discovery the better the near risk free triple+ gains will be for post discovery buyers.
That's my read too seek.
They only need to find enough oil to raise the share price to $40 for someone that bought shares a decade ago, and refused to add more with "unqualified management" at the helm, to break even.
It's no wonder some of these posters are so jaded.
I wouldn't say he is an idiot. After all, he did scam us out of all of OUR money!
Lyin', cheatin', Transfer Agent gagging crooks is why they are, but not idiots.
Man up. you trashed this company and Ntephe for years, affecting the value of the shares others held.
How does it feel to be on the receiving end?
I'm sure it won't be more than a billion or two.
Yep. I don't know who it will be, but I do feel who they are surprises many.
Let me get this right...
There have been eight wells drilled in the JDZ; OBO-1, the 5 Sinodax/ERHC drilled, and the 2 Total drilled.
All EIGHT encountered hydrocarbons???
Methinks chapter ONE of this journey is about to be written.
Interesting...
"This dataset is composed of a recently reprocessed 3D seismic survey and eight wells that encountered hydrocarbons."
It appears that the JDZ results were not enough to entice Sinopec to commit, but good enough to draw other attention.
Kosmos?
And there is talk of Kosmos entering the JDZ. Kosmos has been and is continuing to expand in the STP-EEZ. And don't forget Chad, with nearby discoveries and a pipeline nearby as well.
I think oil in Tarach-1 and ERHC gets taken out between $10 and $30.
We'll know soon enough.
nwtf, do you consider this to be defending?
"tryoty Monday, 04/18/16 07:36:32 PM
Re: jcanada post# 315578
Post # of 315722
Until Ntephe steps up and definitively says that convertible debt is off the table this stock is going nowhere... and rightfully so. The management of this company massacred shareholders for a meaningless pittance. Ntephe and Odobulu should be fired.
Maybe then this stock could move forward. "
You are mistaken when you say I am defending them.
nwtf, I have done what everyone does, I have gone from hope to fear and back again, many times. Many.
My posts reflect my feelings. I have no intent to deceive or manipulate. What you see is what you get... who I am and how I am feeling at that time.
If you don't believe me, or don't like me, that's fine. Use the ignore feature to help solve the site-killing board clutter on I-hub. Thanks.
As for defending "them", I feel the single most positive event for this company would be a commercial discovery. The second most positive event would be the removal of Ntephe and Odobulu to give the MOST positive event a chance of happening. The last two years have made the leads in "Dumb and Dumber" look like Einstein compared to the moves they have made. I don't defend them, there is no defense... I "endure" them to get to the prize... they've bought a significant chunk of this company over the last couple of years. IMO, the end is in sight.
Your math is, well, lacking.
Offor owned 304M shares where ERHC was trading at 90 cents... that was a value of $273M dollars, and a significant sum even in Offor's world. Best estimates have Offor owning around 15% of ERHC now. worth about $375,000.
Ntephe's convertible debt fiasco wiped Offor out as bad as it did us.
20166004 shares, to be exact, and as you alluded to... half buys, half sells. You certainly can't believe that 100% of the sell volume is conversions, you are smarter than that. So *maybe* half of the sell volume is conversions, if it's even that much....
That's 5M shares, and I think that's blown out of proportion. That 30.9M shares out number shows to me that the fools figured out the death spiral the created, and put an end to it. *Maybe* the shares out reach the high 30M's, but I doubt it.
That said, I've said this before, and I'll say it as long as he is the CEO, Peter Ntephe should be fired for his public "quick and attractive" comment that showed he isn't competent in the role of CEO. What he felt was quick and attractive wiped out a lot of people. He isn't competent to run this company, or any other company for that matter.
This stock is stagnant until proven oil is found or competent management is installed... but Offor has shown he isn't aware or doesn't care about what happens with ERHC.
Sigh.
What a waste of potential.
Until Ntephe steps up and definitively says that convertible debt is off the table this stock is going nowhere... and rightfully so. The management of this company massacred shareholders for a meaningless pittance. Ntephe and Odobulu should be fired.
Maybe then this stock could move forward.
I'm going to leave that one alone and let it bask in all of its embarrassing glory...
I'll give you a hint though; sniff oil in Tarach-1, the toxic debt spiral stops.
Based on those reserves the author is probably referring to AKPO.
Do you see either company making this statement? It was in an news article.
Perhaps they feel they'll need the rig for an appraisal of the Tarach-1 discovery they expect... wow! Did that thought occur to you?
Nope. It's positive, therefore automatically ruled out.
Sad.
In the last update we were told that ERHC has met all cash calls to date. How long ago was the rig in use leased? When was that bill paid? Was the last year of pain necessary to meet those obligations and now, here we are paid in full, with the people still painting the darkest picture possible.
In the grand scheme of things the spud date is only significant to daytraitors... plus or minus even a month is meaningless.
Oil was valued at $7 per barrel, undeveloped and in mile deep water, FIFTEEN years ago (AKPO). I agree that there are dozens of factors and each case is different, but $3 to $4, onshore and with a pipeline slated to go through our block, is far too low.
I don't think so. I am in the camp that strongly believes any hint of oil in the logs will result in a buyout. I'm sure these guys are as tired of this game as we are.
Put a fork in it.