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there is no reason why there can't be 16GB drives in the very near term for primary data storage
it would take more than 5 years of 50% price declines before this would be economical. By that time, for the same price (imo), one could probably have a 100-200GB hdd on a single platter. If you think given the option, people will choose flash in this scenario, you're nuts. By the way, the long term annual price decline of DRAM is about 30%; NAND flash is about 35%. Flash has its place, no doubt there, but all this speculation that it will obsolete HDD is flat out wrong.
The trend now is miniaturization
like a 1 inch micro drive capable of 60GB
another thing to consider is the proliferation of digital photography and music. Not only does it eat up considerable storage, but it does so with quite valuable information (to most). I think in the future, you will see anyone that owns a digital camera or has a significant music library will also own an external drive for backup purposes. Most people will only lose their drive once before making that small investment. Backing up using CDs is enough to drive anyone round the bend...
having the headroom to increase capacity 10 fold will allow the HDD makers to enjoy a considerable cost advantage over their flash counterparts.
can you imagine Apple's storage requirements? yikes... Now imagine it when they start distributing feature length films and TV content.
Hard drives will become standard in all STB/DVDR, game consoles and maybe even eventually integrated directly into the TV.
i remember a very smart person saying the same thing about never needing more than 640kb of memory; the thirst for storage is seemingly unquenchable and will only get worse.
at todays prices, 16 GB of nand flash would cost about $600 according the the dramexchage.com. A 20GB HDD is about $60. this gap gets wider the higher you go.
as for margins, STX and KOMG both make more than 11% NPM - not bad for companies trading at about 10 x next years earnings and growing quite a bit faster than the market.
Perpendicular recording (seagate plans to be producing 100% of their product portfolio using this technology by the end of 2006) is supposedly going to make it possible for 10 fold density increases over the next 5-10 years. 1 inch micro drives of 60gb, single platter 3.5 inch disks up to 1 TB ......flash isn't going to obsolete the disk makers anytime soon. It's an area I was looking at making an investment in about a month ago. Unfortunately i didn't act and the companies i was looking at are up about 30% since :(
(KOMG/STX/WDC).......still on my watch list though
The Chinese will make geodes themselves.
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=27164
I remember people saying the same thing about betamax.
does "!=" mean not equal? cause if it doesn't, you're FOS.
I inferred. This is supposed to be an investment community after all.
Not Doug
Intel seems happy to let AMD have the $100
laptop market for third world peasants.
whom? People from Kanata? You still didn't answer how AMD investors have been burned? higher tax bracket?
burned so badly? Whatever you're burning must be very high quality.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=amd&time=8&freq=1
Tokyo District Court Denies Intel K.K. Argument to Keep Evidence Obtained by JFTC of Illegal Business Practices from the Public Record
Now why would they do that?????????
I am talking about dilution that has already occurred and they are certainly factored into net profit per share computation. That’s the point. You may like it and that is fine with me. But I would prefer to see a stock I own buy back the accumulation.
Again, this is a growth play. If AMD continues to execute well, the exponential growth in earnings (500 - 1000%) per share could make 30, 40, 50% dilution acceptable - as long as the growth was a direct result of the dilution (i know that sounds strange). The reason AMD issued the convertibles is they needed the capital to survive long enough to get hammer/x64 to market - it seems, for now anyway, this was a very good direction to go.
If you are talking about stock options you should look at AMD. AMD Management folks have done quite nicely for themselves and with repriced options as well, remember? The exercise of AMD stock options is causing the dilution and if you’re a stockholder it is coming out of your hide.
stock compensation expense for 2006 was pegged somewhere around $60mm, which I can live with. If compensation for management becomes excessive, I will be livid. It is certainly one of my concerns going forward.
The convertibles were a necessary evil; AMD didn't really have a choice at the time. In any event, 12% dilution is a small price to pay when you consider it put them in a position to exponentially grow their revenues and significantly expand their margins. Also, the reported numbers factor in the dilution so who really gives a toss?
The debt offering by Intel is another story - one which makes no sense IMO. What does a company that can't find anything useful to do with the money they have (unless you consider the transfer of shareholder capital to greedy management useful) need with more money? Perhaps they are worried about what the lawsuit might cost them.
very clever. you have a wonderful way with words - a shame you couldn't pick stocks to save a drowning child.
best regards
wrong. and I've never posted on MF - motley fool? This is my only handle. BTW, highland park, for me anyway, is not a place.
obv i was referring to this:
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=27824
you know, like when it arrives from AMD..........
maybe it will hit the market before montecito - ya think?
wrong.
another brilliant contribution by the little kangaroo. well done Joey, keep up the good work!!!!
8 sockets and above remains POWER, SPARC, Itanium, and some Xeon MP territory without much AMD present.
that could change significantly when 32 socket glueless SMP arrives.
First of all he claimed to be some kind of authority on the subject of finance. Second of all, he was comparing current assets to total OUTSTANDING DEBT. This is not the current ratio and not a really useful comparison in this case as much of AMD's LT debt is convertible at prices lower than are currently available in the market and the non convertible isn't due until 2012.
That may be the funniest post I've read on this board. Perhaps you need to take a refresher course in grade 9 accounting - current ratio is actually 1.75 (current assets/CURRENT liabilities). You really don't have a clue do you?
I am sure I could be very wrong but my gut feeling tells me they need cash of 2 billion this next year and they are making about 150 Million. That shortfall requires selling assets or borrowing.
Operating cash flow was approx $400 million last Q and they were profitable - this cash crunch you speak of is baseless.
perhaps you should look at slide 10
http://tinyurl.com/crtva
My guess is they pissed away about 2-4 billion on Opteron which can't seem to garner more than about 12% of one segment of the market.
you do realise Opteron/athlon/turion all share a manufacturing process right. R&D to produce hammer arch may be in that range, it is after all hardly a narrow range. Regardless, AMD could very well have have 20-30% of X86 rev share by mid-late 2007 - this means annual rev of more than $10 billion with operating margins around 20%. do the math.
Or in other words, AMD must sell off the majority of the company to pay their 3 year old debt or die as forced to do so by the banks
Last Q CPU division did slightly less than a billion $$$ in revenue Vs. slightly more than 500 million $$$ for spansion -of which AMD only owns 60%. So, oh wise one, how is that selling off the "majority" of the company? In any event, Spansion is a low margin commodity like business with no real big barriers (other than cash) to entry. Getting rid of it is the smart thing to do.
Also, WTF bank are you talking about anyway? AMD has/had $200 million in convertible (2007) notes which they just called. I wonder how many of those are still out there considering there is now ZERO incentive to continue holding. They also have $500 million in convertible debt (anytime at $23.38 per share) due 2022. Finally there is the $600 million in senior notes due 2012. I think the financial picture you are trying to paint is about 3 years old and thus.....quite lame.
However, with details on Intel’s future Conroe featuring 4 megs of shared cache, dual core technology, 65 nanometer process, and proposed 3GHz+ debut (more likely 2.5GHz) it would seem to me that anyone would run scared – although this would be more “scary” if AMD sitting idle doing nothing.
did anyone just see rick wittington on cnbc? He was the "bull" in an Intel bull/bear debate. Couldn't stop talking about AMD being the better bet in this sector......Ted David kept asking why he was on the show as an Intel bull if he likes AMD better - brilliant.
his actual name is "chipguy"? ;)
And I thought my parents were strange......
Jeez, don't you listen? ;) Endless marketing dollars are going to drive the unaware into a buying frenzy. People are going to jump at the chance to add much complexity to their TV watching and music listening routines. Intel is going to sell billions of these so we better "watch out".............
Let's not forget what Intels marketing dollars have done for Itanium. A decade late and about $150 billion dollars short......
Another thing to consider is the actual people responsible for closing sales - near minimum wage employees at big box electronics stores. Are they going to convince Joe Average that the family computer should be in the living room?
it won't be long before people accept AMD for what they are - a company offering high quality parts for a reasonable price. Paradigms shift all the time. The Japanese used to be known for low quality inferior products. GM used to have the lions share of the automobile industry. the Swiss used to own the watch market. Things change, sometimes it takes people a while to notice. The Ipod came out in 2001 - but only really took off in early 2004. AMD is doing all the right things and if that continues, the future is very bright - don't discount the fact that people like to root for the underdog. If Intel is unsuccessful defending AMD's claim and word gets out to "Joe Average", Intel's image - something they are relying on very heavily right now - would suffer an enormous blow. This isn't like microsoft, people actually have a very viable 2nd choice over an Intel based product.
this is way too complex a product for the average person. Centrino was/is a great, albeit way too expensive, product which made life easier for mobile users; Viiv adds unnecessary complexity (for most users) to the "living room experience". I don't see this product being a big contributor to Intel's revenue over the next few years or ever for that matter. The artice in the inquirer today was reasonable.
kind of like their 64 bit extension copy; Or multi core; or low power focus; innovation by integration; direct connect.....the list goes on.
ViiV is a supply driven marketing concept - Intel sure has a hard working marketing department. Imagine if they had to compete for revenue entirely on the performance/stability of their products/roadmap?
I wonder which company OEMs actually prefer to deal with? Maybe if Keith reads this he could add some colour?
Although, at least Intel has demonstrated their next generation cores in actual systems, while we are yet to see ANYTHING from AMD's 65nm process.
Intel also did a montecito demo in 2004.
2.4 GHz Turion (lancaster core and incl MC) at 25w cant get close to 2.26 GHz dothan at 27w? Yonah - the 3 month bandaid looks good - apart from it being only 32 bits. I wonder how much $$$ they will be asking for them?
You are making a lot of assumptions on where AMD can clock and how much they dissipate with a process that's still filled with many unknowns
As we have seen many times before, past execution is not an indicator of future performance.
Ok, so let me get this straight, I can't use the past OR make assumptions based on announced future products?
It seems, in terms of producing low power CPUs, that SOI has been more effective for AMD than strained silicon has been for Intel. In the 2nd half 2006 when AMD begins volume production at 65nm using SSOI, Intel will NEED NGA to be competitive; 40-70w dc opterons should compare nicely to 80+7 watt Woodcrest. IF Intel's NGA is late, or their products don't perform as "projected" it could get quite ugly for their shareholders. Yes, yes, the same could also be said for AMD and their move to 65nm production...........at this point, AMD's promises seem more credible than those of their competition.
so which high volume branded OS is going to lead Itanic into the promised land?
ruthless?
that lawsuit will show you a side of INTEL that I´ve witnessed for almost a decade, that you probably have considered to be pure myth and fantasy
Can I ask in what capacity?
how do you know DC Turion isn't coming out in January? DC opteron was originally targted for 2nd half 2005, but launched in April. January certainly must be considered "early 2006" - no?
does Intel break out revenue from Itanium chips separately?
how do you think it will compete against 32 socket glueless SMP squeezing from below and power6 squeezing from above?
I wonder how it will compare to low power dual core 64bit turions when they launch in Q1?