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got to go.. see you guys tomorrow
GL/GT
Airedale .. nice tool
.. does it come in a large-print edition ?
Bliss..
.. I have 9/02 as the first of a double-bottom ending the 1st 80 week...
.. I have the second bottom early March '03
.. after that everything works quite nicely...
.. 1st 20-week (at 21 weeks ) ends 2nd wk Aug '03
.. 2nd 20-week (and 40wk) ends early Dec '03
.. 3rd 20-week (at 20wks) ends beginning May '04
.. 4th 20-week (at 20 wks) ends 2nd wk Sept '04
Aire.. please take a look at AMAT while I ponder Bliss's question...
I was wondering when you'd join us professor *vbg*
That sharp drop was an earnings warning ...
..10 week cycle before that July drop was a $3 decline, start of cycle to end of cycle (including that sharp drop )
.. the "gradual decline" (next 10-week cycle) was also a $3 drop from the start of the 10-week cycle (mid-july) to the end (Sept)
.. I put the end of INTC's first 80 week at beginning of Sept., but we can agree to disagree, if you'd like
Bliss.. where is the start of that 40 week INTC cycle ?
TXN phasing ...
TXN double-bottomed and then began the current 40-week cycle in the 1st week of September '04
20-week cycle ran Sept '04 to Jan '05 (1st & 2nd 10-wk cycles)
10-week cycle ran Jan '05 to early Apr '05 (12 wks)
Last 10 week cycle of 40-week is now 5 weeks along
... I expect TXN's 40-week to bottom in late June
Bliss.. your INTC chart shows the following:
- the first 80 week cycle bottomed end of Aug '04
- a 20-week cycle began Sept '04 and ended Jan '05 (19wks)
- split that in half and you have the 1st 10-week
bottoming in Nov '04
- 3rd 10-week cycle began Jan '05 and ended Apr '05 (11wks)
- 4th (and last) 10-week of the nominal 40-week is 5 weeks
along
... so the INTC "meltup" may be a few weeks away. Other SMH stocks are showing similar patterns.
.. I would agree with Airedale and others that the many of the SPX stocks have already or are currently reaching their 40-week bottom. Some appear to be as much as 5 or more weeks into the 2nd 40-week cycle.
...All JMHO, of course.
cash.. yep.. think so (eom)
sold INTC, went short INTC (eom)
yep... there is cyclic order in the universe (eom)
Airedale.. nice work sir
BTW.. I'm long INTC (a bit early as usual
Has anyone noticed the number of stocks and ETF's on the upc11830 and "difficult to short/borrow" lists lately ?
This could get really interesting. (Bliss, get ready to say "melt-up")
http://www.goldmoods.com/upc11830.html
Mr.Cash .. that post is a gem..well said !(eom)
Mr. Cash .. I'm 90% sure you're right (eom)
5 Week? 7.5 week? 10 week?
Holy shades of e-waves, Batman
only thing I can say is, it's behaving much like the previous 20-week cycle..
Airedale .. ROFLOL !! (eom)
Cash.. It's possible we're all right..
.. take a look at a weekly chart for INTC .. which would support the 5-weeks ending now theory..
.. now take a look at TXN .. looks like it's ahead by a week or so
.. several component stocks of SMH are out of sync, as they are on other indices, so what seems to be happening is that the cycle lows are coming in at different times, and instead of a crisp, clear bottom( or a cascade ).. we see choppy action.
.. what I should have said on Friday is that I believe the 5-week low "will complete on Friday or Monday".
aire.. now I'm scared.. lol (eom)
Cash.. LOL .. yep ! (eom)
Aire.. that's a real good question
... call me crazy, but I have today / Mon as a possible 5 week low (SOX / NDX ) .. going to look at it more closely over the weekend.
Aire.. I don't think it will bottom 'till Monday morning..
.. just a hunch
DowDeva.. glad that helped (eom)
Uh Bliss..
.. SMH has dropped almost .60 since my last post..
Caution..
.. the sharks at Fidelity are showing no shortable shares for SMH..
.. this usually happens before a big downturn, FWIW
this spring's getting wound pretty tight (eom)
"amateur hour" ends in 10 minutes (eom)
aapl just resumed trading.. up 10% (eom)
longdrive - nice call (eom)
pmiles .. you holding positions overnight now ? What made you change ? Just curious... TIA
Mr USA.. Great to have you back
Mr. Cash.. FWIW ..
... looks like the 3-3.5 day bottom came in at 3 days, which would imply this 6-7 day cycle could end as early as EOD today or near the open tomorrow.
... as always, your mileage may vary
Aire.. much relieved.. whew !! (eom)
Cash.. I have a very bad feeling about Airedale (eom)
Mr USA ... welcome back !
I'm with you, too risky to short here.. on the sidelines 'till next week.
gl/gt
Aire .. thanks for the continued fine work ..
.. you vertical yet ?
Buck
Mr. Cash .. I have today as day 3 of the 6/7 day and 12/14 day... ( I'm figuring 11 trading days to the 10 week low )
GL/GT
Buck
Stopped out of AMZN for a .47/sh profit,
took my profits on YHOO ('bout $1/sh)
... still long TXN and SMH, but cautious...
Mr. Cash.. thanks for the reply
GL/GT ... Buck