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Not sure if this made it onto this board previously - new patent awarded to XXII a couple of days ago:
file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/65/05/D7A2F763-61D3-4A6F-B204-C701759E4DCB/IMG_1970.jpeg
Yeah, I wouldn’t do that right now.
Almost there - the fat lady isn’t singing yet, but she’s warming up. I’m going call FDA MRTP approval within the next two weeks - definitely by Feb 23rd. Looking forward not only to the rollout within 90 days as Mish described, but also the reaction to FDA approval from other countries that have been dabbling with VLN mandates (not to get ahead of ourselves though...).
What catalyst justifies this stock trading 400% higher in less than a month?! How many people need to get burned on this???
Impressed with the CEO’s story, and with what FDA approval could mean for CHUC, I considered making a sizable investment in the stock, but then… I did my dd. This is a pump and dump. People on this board have been talking about an “analyst report” calling for a $.50 price target. THERE IS NO ANALYST REPORT. NADA. This is a company that has traded at 2 TENTHS of one penny for more than a year… the pumpers are hard at work. Sad for investors who buy here.
This is amazing - and could very well be XXII - $200/share plus $20/share of Jazz stock.
I still see the great potential XXII has by supplying the market of the cannabinoid they want with the benefit of greater potency, stability and minor flavor/odor from terpenes.
https://investor.jazzpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/jazz-pharmaceuticals-acquire-gw-pharmaceuticals-plc-creating
Good point - probably true.
What catalyst justifies this stock trading 400% higher in less than a month?! How many people need to get burned on this???
Impressed with the CEO’s story, and with what FDA approval could mean for CHUC, I considered making a sizable investment in the stock, but then… I did my dd. This is a pump and dump. People on this board have been talking about an “analyst report” calling for a $.50 price target. THERE IS NO ANALYST REPORT. NADA. This is a company that has traded at 2 TENTHS of one penny for more than a year… the pumpers are hard at work. Sad for investors who buy here.
Three weeks ago, this thing got pumped to more than $0.045. Most shareholders have already lost more than half their investment now.
For most of the last twelve months, the company’s stock traded at 2 TENTHS of one penny (a market cap of $30-40MM)… which was reasonable… and gave investors at least some potential upside.
At today’s price of just under one penny per share, CHUC is valued at $145 Million! Come on guys. I like the story and the management team at CHUC. A lot. But I know and you know that today’s CHUC stock price still makes ZERO sense. Even assuming (optimistically and hopefully) that FDA approval is granted (which is a BIG assumption), CHUC is worth way less than $100MM… which means less than ½ penny ($0.005) is where the stock should be trading! I am NOT short CHUC. I am NOT a basher. I am simply a student of the market who hates to see so many investors duped into buying a stock that is overvalued by more than 100%.
Wish I could take credit for this nice diligence piece on XXII that someone put together and posted on Reddit recently:
https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/kymmf6/great_dd_on_xxii_plant_biotech_company_working/
Three weeks ago, this thing got pumped to more than $0.045. Most shareholders have already lost more than half their investment now.
For most of the last twelve months, the company’s stock traded at 2 TENTHS of one penny (a market cap of $30-40MM)… which was reasonable… and gave investors at least some potential upside.
At today’s price of just under one penny per share, CHUC is valued at $145 Million! Come on guys. I like the story and the management team at CHUC. A lot. But I know and you know that today’s CHUC stock price still makes ZERO sense. Even assuming (optimistically and hopefully) that FDA approval is granted (which is a BIG assumption), CHUC is worth way less than $100MM… which means less than ½ penny ($0.005) is where the stock should be trading! I am NOT short CHUC. I am NOT a basher. I am simply a student of the market who hates to see so many investors duped into buying a stock that is overvalued by more than 100%.
My daily reminder - I said this before, I’ll say it again - I’m impressed with the CEO’s story, and with what FDA approval could mean for CHUC, and I considered making a sizable investment in the stock, but then… I did my dd, which everyone on this board should do as well.
CHUC’s annual sales are $22MM, Net Income is NEGATIVE $2.1MM (even worse, last quarter the company lost $6.8MM). Granted, FDA approval should help the top - and bottom - lines. BUT, since two weeks ago, the company’s stock price and overall market cap have gotten completely ridiculous.
For most of the last twelve months, the company’s stock traded at 2 TENTHS of one penny (a market cap of $30-40MM)… which was reasonable… and gave investors at least some potential upside. The Company submitted its PMTA last September… and likely expects an FDA answer by next fall. But now, out of the blue, for no reason other than the fact that pumpers all over this board are talking about a $.50 price target (which is not supported by any analyst report that I can find… and which would equate to a $14 BILLION market cap!) the stock has risen to ridiculous levels.
At today’s price of just over one penny per share, CHUC is valued at $200Million (10 X SALES)! Come on guys. I like the story and the management team at CHUC. A lot. But I know and you know that today’s CHUC stock price makes ZERO sense. Even assuming (optimistically and hopefully) that FDA approval is granted (which is a BIG assumption), CHUC is worth less than $100MM… which means ½ penny ($0.005) is where the stock should be trading! I am NOT short CHUC. I am NOT a basher. I am simply a student of the market who hates to see so many investors duped into buying a stock that is overvalued by more than 100%.
I said this before, I’ll say it again - I’m impressed with the CEO’s story, and with what FDA approval could mean for CHUC, and I considered making a sizable investment in the stock, but then… I did my own dd, which everyone on this board should do as well.
CHUC’s annual sales are $22MM, Net Income is NEGATIVE $2.1MM (even worse, last quarter the company lost $6.8MM). Granted, FDA approval should help the top - and bottom - lines. BUT, since two weeks ago, the company’s stock price and overall market cap have gotten completely ridiculous.
For most of the last twelve months, the company’s stock traded at 2 TENTHS of one penny (a market cap of $30-40MM)… which was reasonable… and gave investors at least some potential upside. The Company submitted its PMTA last September… and likely expects an FDA answer by next fall. But now, out of the blue, for no reason other than the fact that pumpers all over this board are talking about a $.50 price target (which is not supported by any analyst report that I can find… and which would equate to a $14 BILLION market cap!) the stock has risen to ridiculous levels.
At today’s price of just over one penny per share, CHUC is valued at $200Million (10 X SALES)! Come on guys. I like the story and the management team at CHUC. A lot. But I know and you know that today’s CHUC stock price makes ZERO sense. Even assuming (optimistically and hopefully) that FDA approval is granted (which is a BIG assumption), CHUC is worth less than $100MM… which means ½ penny ($0.005) is where the stock should be trading! I am NOT short CHUC. I am NOT a basher. I am simply a student of the market who hates to see so many investors duped into buying a stock that is overvalued by more than 100%.
I agree - the pieces seem to be falling together under the new Administration. No guarantees, but having Biden/Harris, Becerra, Kessler, Woodcock and/or Scharf, even Levine - as well as the number of (primarily) Democratic Congressmen and women who have in the past supported the mandate - is very encouraging.
That’s my birthday! What are you saying?
Great news! This case was always very speculative - filed by a short - but nice to know the court finally agreed and dismissed it with prejudice. That’s a big win, both for this particular case but also to deter any future possible, merit less claims.
Kessler would be great; Joshua Sharfstein would be a pretty big win as well, although a number of people I’ve seen on what many seem to believe is Biden’s shortlist also appear to be favorably disposed to the nicotine mandate.
$XXII Here’s Xavier Becerra’s letter (as CA AG) to the FDA advocating for the FDA’s reduced nicotine mandate. Looks now like it’s a slam dunk that Becerra will be confirmed by the Senate as the new Secretary of the Dept. of Health & Human Services, which governs the FDA:
https://oag.ca.gov/sites/all/files/agweb/pdfs/tobacco/ag-nicotine-standard-letter-fda-071618.pdf?
The probability of the FDA re-prioritizing the national reduced nicotine mandate just got a whole lot better. Google search the letter from 23 Democratic Senators (Nov 2019) - including new Senate Majority Leader Schumer, and VP-Elect Harris - expressing “outrage” that the FDA had abruptly de-prioritized its proposed VLN mandate. Regardless of your political leaning, a Democratic Senate should be very, very good for VLN & XXII.
Wondering what role Dr. Kessler ultimately will have in the Biden administration (other than currently as Co-Chair of the COVID Task Force). Here’s his quote from 2010: “The FDA should quickly move to reduce nicotine levels in cigarettes to non-addictive levels. If we reduce the level of the stimulus, we reduce the craving. It is the ultimate harm reduction strategy," said Dr. Kessler.
$XXII A reminder of the FDA’s briefing document to TPSAC prior to the committee’s review of XXII’s VLN MRTP application (February 18, 2020): “FDA’s preliminary scientific review of the application found that the … proposed claims are substantiated: there is about a 95% reduction in nicotine in the tobacco itself, the smoke it yields, and the nicotine that is absorbed when the product is smoked exclusively...Using [reduced nicotine content] cigarettes can reduce nicotine dependence.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200218005321/en/FDA-Scientific-Advisory-Committee-Discusses-22nd-Century-Group’s-Reduced-Nicotine-Cigarettes
Seeking Alpha article out tonight;
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4393973-22nd-century-looks-set-to-finally-cash-in
Recent patent opens the door for CBD to be grown in tobacco.
?
Another post recently mentioned a new patent awarded to XXII. This is has some real potential - among other things, the ability to grown CBD in tobacco. Summary: The Cannabis plant makes cannabinoids (THC, CBD, CBC, and so on) in trichomes. To manipulate cannabinoids, you therefore need molecular “on switches” (promoters) for trichomes. This recently awarded patent, filed by Dr Paul Rushton and XXII last year, protects not just one such switch but eight. In fact, it delivers switches from all of the major steps in cannabinoid biosynthesis. These switches could be lucrative in manipulating CBD (and terpenes) in the cannabis/hemp plant, in making cannabinoids in other plants, and in using trichomes as “Biofactories” to make other valuable substances. See Patent No. 10,787,674, granted Sept 29, 2020.
** Great news for XXII ** - Xavier Becerra (currently CA Atty General) - Biden’s/Harris’ choose for new Secretary of HHS - has a history of advocating for the FDA’s proposed nicotine product standard. More likely that the nicotine product standard gets back onto the FDA’s Unified Agenda.
https://oag.ca.gov/system/files/attachments/press-docs/nicotine-level-comment-letter.pdf
Nice article out this morning in The Atlantic advocating for the Biden Adminstration to re-prioritize the reduced nicotine mandate.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/easy-way-to-quit-smoking/617305/
Thanks for posting. I thought Mish was super solid - great summary of the company’s plans once VLN MRTP is granted, confident and well-spoken, good perspective on the cannabis sector and where XXII best fits in. Other than MRTP, of course, it would be nice if some of the company’s work with KeyGene could be monetized soon. Things are moving in the right direction from a regulatory standpoint (US and globally) re cannabis - hope XXII is able to get a licensing deal sooner rather than later.
I assume he saw the writing on the wall re the current Administration’s stance. The political winds seem to have changed direction. I’ve written to him/his staff encouraging him to consider pushing this forward again now that a new administration is taking over.
Not sure if there’s anything more recent than this, but Rep. Pallone authored a letter from Feb 2020 advocating again for a national nicotine mandate.
https://energycommerce.house.gov/newsroom/press-releases/pallone-urges-fda-to-proceed-with-setting-a-maximum-nicotine-level-in
I agree that the delay on the MRTP could very well be related to the FDA deciding to hold off on approval until they feel that Trump is no longer in a position to rashly force the FDA/CTP to retract their approval on Trump’s way out the door. Recall that it was almost exactly one year ago that Joe Grogan (then Head of the Domestic Policy Council) led the charge to pressure the FDA to “focus on pharmaceuticals” rather than tobacco, which removed the nicotine mandate as an FDA priority. To the FDA’s credit, they at least went on record last November saying they were not abandoning the idea, but simply putting it on the back burner. Grogan was pushed aside a while ago, Trump’s on his way, and there seem to be more and more rumblings about the proposed nicotine mandate getting back onto legislators’ (e.g., Frank Pallone, Raja Krishnamoorthi) - and hence, hopefully the FDA’s - radar screens during a Biden administration.
I still don’t think Panacea was a good investment, especially given where our share price was at the time. I’d be strongly in favor of unwinding the deal if at all possible. KeyGene makes much more sense to me. Time will tell...
Mish & Franzino coming on board is a very positive step in the right direction.
Gotcha. Yep, they have the resources to fight on a lot of fronts. I’m sure they were able to exert a lot of influence to get the proposed reduced nicotine mandate shelved for the time being, but I don’t think they can do too much to prevent the FDA/CTP from granting our MRTP, but I guess we’ll see. Thanks.
Why is Cliff Fleet still on board (and/or on THE Board)?
The generous answer is that he has a tremendous amount of directly relevant experience; he saw (and still sees) a lot of promise in our VLN product; and the hope was/is that he would open a number of doors for the company in terms of potential strategic partnerships, either with a Big T player or someone else.
The cynical answer is that being on our Board is a cushy, well-paying gig; the Board meets infrequently so he’s not exactly killing himself in terms of effort or hours expended; the Board has minimal accountability; he has very little skin in the game (which is similar to most or all of our other Board members and executives, whose actual share purchases - despite their high salaries - are paltry); and he’s just coasting along.
I don’t know - still hoping our management and Board surprise me. We’re on the brink of being the ONLY combustible cigarette manufacturer in the world with an FDA modified risk label. I still believe that will be attractive to BAT/Altria/Japan T/Korea T etc, pharmaceuticals and pharmacies, and Mr Fleet and the Board and our management should be focused 24/7 on VLN and be out there offering our terms for strategic partnerships. We should be signing up at least one partner NOW, and making the roll-out contingent on MRTP approval. But I’m just a shareholder to whom the Board owes a duty of care...
Ok, but I don’t think the postponement of the advertising rule due to COVID (and RJR’s lawsuit) has any bearing on the timing of the FDA’s/CTP’s decision on XXII’s MRTP - two completely different things unless I’m missing something.
I don’t understand - why is that interesting?
I don’t think Fleet ever really wanted to be CEO - I think the company was desperate and threw a lot of $ at him to convince to come aboard, but Fleet never really wanted another full-time position. I think his goal all along was to be on the Board, and he ultimately got what he wanted, unfortunately at the expense of shareholders. It was great (albeit Fleeting) while it lasted....sort of. Although was he still CEO when the company invested in Panacea? Still scratching my head on that transaction - and frankly any misplaced thoughts of acquisitions with the share price where it is. Company should be focused on VLN and finalizing a strategic partnership with another tobacco company, pharmaceutical and/or pharmacy to monetize the pending MRTP.
I agree. I’d be very surprised if the FDA approval doesn’t occur quickly - I think the FDA will approve the MRTP, and that it will happen in the next month (or two, tops), if not even earlier. Thankfully, FDA CTP team is separate from FDA team working on COVID. Once approval happens, the question then becomes one of execution: what does management have lined up? A strategic partnership should already be in the works - with one or more of a pharmacy (Rite Aid, CVS, Walgreens, etc), a Big Tobacco company (Japan or Korea Tobacco, esp with our non-GMO progress; BAT or Altria) and/or a pharmaceutical. Launching the VLN product on our own in small test markets - not thrilled with that idea. Also not thrilled with potentially using prior partners - e.g. Smoker Friendly or others. Not sure what they are thinking though as there is no longer much (if any) transparency. Hoping they have a laser focus on VLN though. No more goofy acquisitions. A good CEO would help as well, but he/she better be focused on VLN.