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It helps if we look at what PJ, Cowen, et al must be seeing and decide what we would do if we were in their shoes. Some of the more obvious things, like looking at chart formations and chart trends, can be deduced pretty easily.
Like Cramer says, "hope is not a viable investment strategy".
And while we're at it, neither is "empathy investing" when people want to support a potential cure. Sometimes people confuse investing with charity, which I see so much of in biotech. Its noble, but if people want to help, make a check out to a charity and don't buy shares because they are not adhering to sound investing principles. They're not helping in any practical way, except to add some liquidity. Always keep the two activities separate.
OT: Time for a good laugh.
Got to see this "E Trade" spoof video. I can't stop laughing.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-06/stocks-down-5-days-row-worst-start-year-ever
Wrong. I have no dog in this fight. No shares long or short. Just thought I'd mention an angle no one has discussed.
The chart is in a bearish descending triangle with support at about 5.90.
If they don’t get the secondary done, or the uplist doesn’t happen soon, that will definitely take a toll on the share price and could drive it below the 5.90 support.
I’m sure the 3 participating houses involved see this too and may question the wisdom of entering now at a higher price, not confident the 5.90 support level will hold. If that happens, whatever price the management had in mind goes out the window, the offering price blows up. My guess is there is a lack of confidence from the 3 participants who want to see some strength in the price action and see how it resolves itself. So in my opinion the important date is not the 7th, or the 12th, its the day this closes below 5.90. Just my 2 cents.
Slowing the RATE of disease progression...
Reminds me of Congress taking credit for slowing the RATE of spending. The spending still increases, and the disease still progresses.
Will we really be happy if "poor Joe" takes 3 years to expire instead of 2? Let's hope they can improve the efficacy with larger doses and more frequent dosing.
At least OCAT investors don't have to worry about the effect of institutional investors dumping their shares. All 16k of them, LOL.
Where's the ads? I want to see commercials for the "DANBURY DUST"!
But shorting activity should still be reflected in the volume, but its still weak (29.9k at the moment). Buying volume would take care of that but its not there at the moment.
Lots of people excited about 1/7, 1/12 but where's the buying, the anticipation of great news? It should be moving up by now if there was true optimism but the charts don't reflect it in the price or volume. I trust what the charts are telling me.
How it behaves EOD will be telling.
Lunch time crowd is giving it the usual midday lift, but morning selling pressure will return after power lunches are over.
They made no effort to qualify the data results which bugged me. No warning that the results were not statistically significant, that the sustainability of the treatment was not established and are still being observed. Nothing. They intend to escalate the doses and frequency in the next trials, and may be able to improve on this, but there was not a word of prudent caution to reign in the zealous investor who may see more than there is right now.
Frankly, I'm disappointed in management for this act of omission.
I listened to the entire CC.
Very disingenuous of them NOT to mention results of this small study are not statistically significant. Excellent positive indications from the dozen patients, but not statistically significant. Just don't hang onto the illusion they are.
No mention of the study being statistically significant? With only 12 patients, no way.
Down 12%. They're selling the news like I warned.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=109585544
What I don't get is its clear dilution is coming, probably 30% based on the secondary offering info, so why not sell and then buy back your shares after the price adjusts?
Dilution (and reverse splits) are a time to get off the RR tracks and let the train pass. Its totally foreseeable and avoidable. Why accept the likelihood of a 30% cut in the value of your shares? And I don't see the possibility of an uplist compensating for this event either. Frankly, I don't see it happening for the foreseeable future.
Good post. If offering doesn't work out, They'd need to partner, or find something to sell-like IP.
They need to execute, get their batting average up so investors have confidence in their ability to follow thru. This issue is dogging them.
ACTC was a classic case of bad management, but I don't think its fair to compare THAT company to OCAT. It was clear that an RS was coming LONG before it did but investors chose not to sell, so its on them.
You may be thinking of Holoclar, a stem cell treatment approved in Europe for LSCD. A different eye condition.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/11304926/First-stem-cell-therapy-approved-for-medical-use-in-Europe.html
Any expiring lock up dates approaching that we should know about, like Lincoln's shares?
But if they did tap Lincoln, isn't that something material they'd have to report?
What's the status of Lincoln Park's sale of 3m shares? Is it on or off? There's no PR on this.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140098/000101968714003858/advancedcell_s3.htm
Thank you, chuck.
Regarding monday's CC.. No one seems to have any regard for the old adage, "Sell the news".
"OCATA patient going from 20/400 from 20/40 is monumental."
I've been looking for the pre/post treatment eye site differential. Do you have a link to this?
With 901k shares short, making a short ratio of 4.5, I'd call it moderate short interest. Hardly "noise level".
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=OCAT&submit=Short+Quote%99
I'm wondering if part of the delay in getting the secondary offering completed is just due to the holiday period? Negotiations may have been hung up going into the end of the month and one or more of the parties decided to table it until they get back. December is just a tough time to do a secondary because it can easily drag into the holidays when so many are on vacation, or companies are short handed.
Lighter than normal volume usually helps the price to the upside. Next week will be the real test for this price.
The Dow chart shows its at the top of the channel and due for a correction, but the fund managers were going to keep the gains for the quarter and the year intact until the end of year. Next week will be a different story, IMO. The markets are due for a correction.
I guess you missed my point. Marlborough, MA is becoming a hub for stem cell R+D and its proximity lends itself to the possibility that the two can find synergies, as would any biotech sub-sector where similar businesses are concentrated. GE Healthcare Life
Sciences makes bioreactors that are used for the propagation of stem cells and looks for partnering opportunities. It would be normal procedure to evaluate Ocata's science and any potential partnering opportunity. That's all I'm saying, so there's no need to go off on a tangent.
Something under the radar is Ocata's blood program. I think it has a good chance of finding a partner for this, especially with GE Healthcare Life Sciences moving nearby. The new facility in Marlborough, MA is scheduled to open in the Spring 2015. So any real partnership, if any won’t begin until sometime after that.
http://patch.com/massachusetts/marlborough/ge-healthcare-life-sciences-moves-marlborough-hq
An SA article on the program:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2599745-advanced-cell-technology-is-scaling-up-its-blood-program
Executing on a business plan, what a concept!
I wouldn't take the market action LAST week or THIS week too seriously, being a holiday week with lighter than normal volume and so many traders on vacation. Next week will be the true test, IMO.
I don't know the answer crawford. I have not been following ACTC/OCAT is a long time and I'm in catch up mode. I came across it and thought I'd pass it on.
"..The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has recommended Holoclar, a treatment in which a patient’s own healthy stem cells are used to grow new cells which are then transplanted into the eye."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/11304926/First-stem-cell-therapy-approved-for-medical-use-in-Europe.html
Fair enough. I stand corrected.
I'd balk at dismissing anything posted on the NASDAQ site out of hand. Wouldn't that be a starting point for the offering? Its not set in stone, but negotiations have to start somewhere and they need a number to plug in, no?
Just doing my part to reduce the amount of speculation here so we can talk about other things, LOL.
The secondary public offering price is set at $6.21.
The offer amount is $62.1m.
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/spos/company/ocata-therapeutics-inc-86431-76711
Are you saying the offering price was $12/share?
Adding 10m shares is a 30% dilution without any discount for underwriters. That puts the price at 4.37 to which you can figure in any underwriter discount. Then there is the offer to add 1.5m more shares up to 30 days after the secondary if underwriters want more.
I'm wondering if underwriters are concerned about the pending suit by the 5% share holder? It may be overhanging the negotiations.