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I was being sarcastic about the market reacting to Blue. 95% of the people on this board came to the same conclusion regarding the legislation. The other 5% will live in denial. I.e. Shutter means close then open. Wind down means end the conservatorship. Shut down Fannie "as we know them" means reform but not eliminate. Obama is quiet because he changed his mind.
The price per share reacted appropriately. The only reason we didn't go lower is because we have the rule of law on our side and hedge fund companies that believe that as well. The same hedgehunds that will short this for cheaper shares and make $$ both ways.
It was a catalyst. Everyone had itchy trigger fingers and that bill was all the reason they needed. we all knew it was gonna happen. RSI is meaningless both ways when it comes to major news. News trumps technical analysis
Thanks Geotrade! At 1 point I was up 10k...lol. This is seriously the ultimate test of strong hands. I try very hard to post information without my "long" filter. Some will take the worst news and find a way to spin it in a positive direction.
I believe with every bone in my body that It would be retarded in every sense to even discuss dissolving fannie and Freddie.
Nothing would surprise me at this point when it comes to the decisions that the Govt has been making. Your political view completely go out the window when your $$ is invested. Obama care good and nationalizing housing bad? Really? They like bigger gov't until it messes with your $$.
I'm long no matter what. I don't like seeing my portfolio tank. Hoping we hold 3's worst case scenario. I agree that in the long run this will play out in our favor. Had to go through a lot of corrections to learn to hold strong. But there are weaker hands out there and the news of the Crappo bill proved it.
Hasn't came to a vote yet. I honestly have no idea how this committee vote plays out. But the market reacts accordingly.....case in point...how many hours was the news about the Crappo bill out before the price tanked? I'm saying if there is a vote to eliminate fannie and it passes committee, I expect retail to take a giant $hit and sell off.
The same committee that the media believes will pass the Crappo/Johnson bill that wants to eliminate fannie in 5 years? You guys realize that if it passes committee retail is gonna $hit themselves. Some peeps here better realize that there is a very strong possibility of passing committee. The rest of the senate is another story.
If that's the case....we have many senators stating we need to eliminate fannie including a majority of republicans. Is this all talk or are they gonna put their money where their mouth is? This is very interesting...based on my vast knowledge of the show House of Cards the whip is probably gonna tally the votes together ahead of time and we should know well in advance on what's gonna happen.
Thanks! The ghetto in me came out. I meant fool like dude, homie.
Since he resigned over a "conflict of interest", someone needs to straight up ask this fool if buffer is buying. I need to know.
So how is working at Berkshire Hathaway a conflict of interest when it comes to owning Fannie Mae?
Thank you! Let's resurrect this beast! :)
Net zero has already been factored in IMO. Need more positive news regarding legislation and lawsuits.
In at $4.50. Looking to retest $6 in the short term.
I live in San Jose. It's a local company. Tesla is right across town as well. New CEO is coming in. Definitely think 50k is worth a gamble. If I pull the trigger on this, my personal target would be 40 to 50 cents.
New bill coming this spring that would keep Fannie and Freddie alive??!!
"A separate group of House Democrats has promised to introduce yet another proposal this spring. It, too, would provide federal insurance of mortgage-backed securities, and it would allow private firms—including, potentially, a restructured Fannie or Freddie—to purchase that insurance on pools of mortgages."
http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/BL-MBB-18746
Wondering the same thing myself.
Winding down Fannie and Freddie that leads to the eventual liquidation and giving us common folk the scraps isn't positive in my opinion. But I like the optimism and it's a step in the right direction. Not happy yet though. Told you guys. Waters/Crappo/Johnson = Foe. Been saying it for months.
Just ranting. This bill is DOA anyway. Just don't want to see anymore red. P
If there is a reaction tomorrow, holding strong and may add substantially if shares are cheap enough. With the news of the Crappo/Johnson bill we saw solid support in the 2.90 to $3 range. I don't imagine this bill having that much of an impact beyond that. I see this bill having more support than the previous bill because it addresses the concerns for affordable housing. Elizabeth warren may show support. If this passes committee, it dies on the floor.
Again, not saying bloodbath. Just a reaction. We aren't trading in the $6 range with an RSI over 90.
I was right . Maxine Waters will introduce a bill to wind down Fannie and Freddie. Good news is, won't pass. Good news is, she's willing adhere to the original bailout agreement.
Since when has any news of any sort of settlement ever resulted in a substantial price per share increase?
How many times have we been through this already? This isn't any different. This is not the news or catalyst that is going to drive this stock back to $5. If we are green tomorrow, it will have nothing to do with B of A settlement. If we are red tomorrow... Same thing.
I've came to a very serious conclusion today and here is why....
They are obviously hiring more employees, appointing board of directors, and creating an appraisal verification process. All under the authority of the FHFA director.
Per the FDIC website...
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is an independent federal agency created in 1933 to promote public confidence and stability in the nation's banking system.
Throughout its history, the FDIC has provided bank customers with prompt access to their insured deposits whenever an FDIC-insured bank or savings association has failed.
Per the legislation proposal...
The new agreement would establish the Federal Mortgage Insurance Corporation as the insurer of last resort, but would require 10 percent private capital reserves. The guarantee, provided for a fee equivalent to 0.1 percent interest, would not kick in until the private reserves were wiped out. Fannie and Freddie would have remained solvent during the housing crisis if they had kept 4 percent of their capital in reserve.
The connection between the two? There is zero confidence in the secondary mortgage market and private capital will not be willing step in without an insurance type backstop. Which is a gov't guarantee without calling it a gov't guarantee. This is similar when the public lost confidence in the banking system. The FDIC brought that confidence back to consumers in order for them to deposit their savings again.
This is just a major expansion of bigger government and more regulation. After a bipartisan compromise, aggressive hedge fund lobbying and after reading the 5 points of today's article, I believe Fannie and Freddie will be wound down from a 90 to 50 percent market share and have a federally mandated requirement of a 10% capital reserve. Their explicit Gov't guarantee removed to fall under the FMIC umbrella. Again....same damn thing.
This is the only way I see us making it out of this mess and a $40-$60 share price in the near future. We win, the Gov't saves face and pretends that they saved the housing market and the thousands of jobs at FnF.
I agree with what winding down means. But why did the article say from 90% to 50% or lower? Maybe a bipartisan compromise could lead to lowering FnF's footprint.
I really h8 you sometimes
Wouldn't it be interesting if winding down actually meant lowering market share to around 50%? Would that mean the continuing existence of FnF but with a smaller footprint and taxpayer liability? According to this statement it seems very probable.
"A new housing law could eventually translate into significant opportunities for private capital as GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae) begin to lower their market share from today’s 90% to 50% or lower."
Still holding strong!
Let's hope. But just know where she stands on this.
Watch out for a correction when it does. I'll be holding on tight in the meantime.
I've been saying this for months. Maxine Waters is not friendly to FnF shareholders and she wants to wind them down. Don't fall for those red herring talking points of preserving the 30 year fixed mortgage or explicit Govt guarantees. To the politicians who want to nationalize the secondary housing market, they think they can do this without FnF.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a3544488-3733-11e3-b42e-00144feab7de.html#axzz2i0HnJdE1
That is why, although it would close down the mortgage companies, the plan from Ms Waters would maintain government involvement through a guarantee, paid for by the mortgage industry, to capitalise an insurance fund. In place of Fannie and Freddie, it creates a new co-operative-owned mortgage securities issuer, according to her aides. The bill is still in draft stages.
The plan has some similarities to a bipartisan proposal from Republican Senator Bob Corker and Democratic Senator Mark Warner. That legislation sees Fannie and Freddie winding down within five years and establishes a government-managed insurance fund, similar to the role that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation plays in insuring bank deposits.
I found nothing on Waters that says she wants to "reform" rather than eliminate. Only statements that want to "wind them down".
I'm just making my own assessment. Lol. Not saying you implied.
This resignation letter is a formality that shows that he is exiting the agency amicably while exhibiting unification with the on-coming FHFA regulator. He will not make any statements contrary to Watt's intentions.
The statement below tells me that Watt has no intention of releasing FnF from conservatorship until legislation is passed. He is going to sit on the sidelines pending the outcome of the Johnson/Crappo bill. There is a lot of tweaking behind the scenes on this bill in order to gain traction and support from critics on the democratic side. It's the only chance the bill has to even make it out of committee. If it doesn't make it out, Watt may eventually have to release from conservatorship. Then status quo remains with a tightly regulated FnF. This is all assuming that Maxine Waters doesn't introduce her version of a "wind down" bill as well.
Sorry if I don't get excited because someone uttered the words "bring conservatorship to an end". Not in this sense at least .
"Congress must act to bring the conservatorships to an end and chart the course for a new structure for housing finance. My earnest hope is that recent legislative initiatives in the House and the Senate lead to the consensus needed to bring such legislation to enactment."
There was no ruling as far as I know. That's why it was in quotes.
The "ruling" or proposal from the plaintiffs?
I don't disagree we will win. Volume is dwindling down right now. Just saying with no news to trigger major movement it wouldn't surprise me to touch low 3's again. Notice the last 2 times it held nicely right?
Not to bash because I'm forever long but i think it may touch low 3's once again before moving to $4. Assuming that there isn't any news to trigger movement one way or the other. Thankfully there seems to be very nice consolidation right now. Holding isn't as scary right now and weak hands are feeling more confident.
"But housing advocates are warning that the bill could worsen ongoing inequality in the housing market, making it harder for lower income families to access credit to buy a house."
What pisses me off is that the critics of this bill will not flat out say that the act of winding down or abolishing FnF is the only factor that is going to create this problem. How else would they "improve the bill" while abolishing the entities that create equality in the housing market and that are willing to address the affordable housing needs?
I'm not saying I know it. My guy tells me.
News is all over the place right now. How many articles say that this bill is dog$hit and is DOA? And yet we drop almost 20% today?
I am nervous about Maxine Waters' bill. It's coming soon and I don't think it will be Fannie friendly. Been saying this all along.
$2.30 and I will add a $hit load more to my core.
You're right. You told me. I was locked up in fannie. Been watching. Great call! Always welcome more info.
I don't disagree with you Blue. But I think you have a price target in mind and you're gonna go all in again. Am I wrong?