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.695 breaks where the titanic today
Seems like .72 if can hold is a major support line. They just keep linning up at .72
O, I agree. Once you involve emotion in trading its a slippery slope. Im a gambler, sick as it might sound love the rush of violator action. Lol I'm feeling confident right now as far as this investment, actually have lots of calls at 1.00 for Sept 18th, and Oct 2nd 1.00 calls is coming in heavy
Public over whelming wants to be part of euro, in every public poll I've read
Was the open a catalyst to a retrace and now a confirmed bottom tested twice ?? Which could be a start to the upside if we close positive? Not a expert on charts, but believe that is a general bi law of charts..
The .75 bid at level 2, at 250k I have that as a short covering , anyone else have a thouht
I will let you know, I'm gonna at least find out the fees and what the cost would be, by entering and what the cost of leaving would be. Good find on the bail in. What's your thought on the affect of pps? Common and preferred... Dilution has to be on option players mind. Explains the .50 put action for Jan 16
Yes, thats what I'm trying to get a handle on. That is 10000% the overhang on the whole move. Unless you get shady and use a offshore broker, and not invest in any us stocks from that account, you can tip toe around the taxes. But I'm not doing that. Already had three run ins with IRS out of 10 years. I know I will this year already cause I had 13g taking from gambling winnings the last 45 days. Which you can claim losses to winnings, but with that number , I'm getting audited.
I think thou, you can't enter and exit sane day. Believe there is some restriction. D spoke with his man at Fidelity, and knows more then I do, calling him Monday
.20 is 30% thou, can't just look at the decimal. Would it be smarter is it was at $7 in Athens and $10 here. 30% is 30%. Plus you have upside on the euro moving up in value. My concern is the controls on money in and out. That's my concern.
I agree but with NBG, there is a major issue going on with this ADR. Some ADR don't have the exact share structure as its home exchange, thus a difference in price is expected.. Here its 1 to 1, so every heavy hitter is going Athens long and ADR short, and using options as protection. Posted about it earlier in the night. There is a link explaining what's going on. If your down on this you would be crazy not to switch. But switching to Athens is appearing to be challenging to say the least. I'm in at avg at .85. Let's say I'm in for 100k shares, that's 85g in and 76g value , 9g down. Switch to Athens 76g gets me 68k Euro which gets me 136k shares, a free increase of 36k and is trading at 30% discount to same share structure as ADR m
Spent the last 12 hours just even trying to get money onto Athens Exchange and once you do, it ain't easy getting it out....also there is no short selling there, and if there are there is crazy ridiculous like 3x worse then penny stocks requirements. Yea its better as of now.
From 10% down to Even , crazy first 1hr and 30 min but looks like its gonna finish way up.
Recover to .48 only down 3%
Down 10% at the Bell. 44.5 WOW
I doubt it will get delisted, they haven't got notice yet and correct me if I'm wrong they have six months from that time to get over a dollar. So if I'm right , they could R/s at 5 months if needed. What worrys me is not only the puts at .50 Jan 16 but the puts at Aug 16 at .50 either someone really thinks its dead in water or they are gambling with option winnings that they leave euro cause a year from now .50 , hard to imagine. That's are biggest issue is the shorts cause we can't get any institutional intrest untill they know the details. But what is positive is the after hours. Late after hours talking 1130pm tonight turned positive for the he whole day. At .77 currently on NYSE. 15mins to greek premarket ....
Yea I looked at some foreign, but read to do a lot of dd on each one. Some shady ones out there for sure. Only problem I see with a lot of good ones is you need to send a copy of passport. I don't have one. But not sure if that applys if you don't by us stocks from act. Think form 8 causes that level of Id.
Thank you for your help. I'll be calling Monday morning for sure. Gives me more time to think about the situation. Just really insane I think to buy it on ADR when its a 35% discount on Athens. I imagine as long as your planning on holding for time, its not a problem. After reading about the share comparison is 1 to 1 and what is going on here, its gonna take a lot to get this baby going. Seems like everyone is short this, long Athens, puts are all over .50. Bears have a strangle hold on the pps here. But once again I appreciate you taking the time calling. Really like another Greece stock that was awarded a five year military German contract for furniture.
What's your contacts name if you don't mind? Incase they give bonus for referrals. Or private message me if you can, or just tell your contact if he gives referral bonus , my first Name is Casey and I'll be calling him so he knows you give the recommendation
Yea, but wouldn't that be a known? I mean I'm buying direct on Athens Exchange so why wouldn't I sell there? But I can't find no one who will take my action. Except for interactive brokers, but there 100g initial. I have that combined in all 3 accounts I have. But to move the account over with positions takes 5 to 6 days. So I would have to liquidate everything and then wire. But it would force me into taxes I don't want to get hit with. I already have been hit with 15g in tax automatic withdraws from gambling winnings. Which f sucks. Do you know any sites other then interactive brokers who take international? Waiting to hear back from Tim Sykes cause I'm a member of his direct chat room. But he hasn't nailed down a preferred Brooker for his chat room. Still negotiating. Dying to get into Athens today
I'm just searching for a online platform that takes international trades. Etrade I believed did, but just logged on and July 9th the did away with it. So my search continues. I just feel Athens has less downside then adr.
It clearly is the best move to make. If he wants to actually turn the economy around this is the move. You would have to think that he has a good amount of knowledge that he will win the election or he wouldn't make this play. Merkel has stated that this is the best thing for the country to move forward. If he wins, he can reorganize his members, toss the ones who have opposed him. Thus causing any future things needed to pass a lock and no bs drama like now. Or he could have not snapped election and every vote moving forward would just be the same circus over and over. Don't you believe if he wins the election, that the IMF has a far better chance of joining the bailout plan in October? That was the only move to make for them have to confidence that Greece is serious about living about to the deal. Don't you think that when he went to Brussels to finalize this last week, they told him , to do this? Don't you think that they have done some silent research into this matter and are confidant that they will win the election. This move today totally explains the action in Athens this morning and the overall flatness of this stock since signing the deal. Insiders knew this was the plan . without the IMF involved several high power hedge funds stand to get destroyed. They know they need the IMF in or there done. You must believe that these hedge funds along with the pm where on a conference call in brussels discussing this matter last week. This was the only play they could have made to show the IMF they are sincere. Now merto with your option thoughts, I've read that same article your getting that info from. Yes it's 10 to 1 putts today. But you don't know what they are protecting from for early options. There's a ton of 1.50 action each way on options, even 3.50 options Jan 1st next year. They could be protecting there loses on 3.50 Jan 1st by buying every .50 putt they can. It's not like they have inside info we don't. This could take off with the pm winning the election, IMF joining the bailout in Oct. And all those putts and shorts will be in deep shit.
The most glaring and significant problem with NBG is the position to short the adr in state and buy the long in Athens . It's a can't lose proposition. I've also read that the share ratio from Athens to NYSE adr is 1 to 1. Most aren't that ratio. Should have known this weeks ago. The play is, sell every share of NBG you have and transfer your money to euro and but NBG in Athens. Much better play. Same share count. I have 75000 shares at avg of .85. I'm going to cell that and say I get .75 I would have 56,250 dollars. 63750 was investment and take the 7g loss. Then transfer the 56,250 to euro 1.12 to 1 it at now. Will give me 50,223, in euro. Then buy it on Athens, say at .50 might go down tmrw but I'll say .50 that will give me 100,600 shares. So I will pick up a free 25,000 shares. Wont have the worry of the ADR coming to fair value. Will be able to get even and ahead quicker. This is absolutely the best way to play NBG at this time. I called Scottrade and they wont buy international stocks. I have a etrade account, forgot the log in info cause that platform is for my son's stocks I get him for long term holds. But I'm 95% confident etrade has international stock buying. If anyone knows platforms that do. Please inform me and if its possible what the fees are. Link below is the idea of buying in Athens and explaining why this spread will hurt the ADR until they are only 6 to 5 spread.
Http://seekingalpha.com/article/3433976-the-national-bank-of-greece-arbitrage-is-done
I hope so but not sure how many shares will be available and I also worry cause no one understands cause and affect yet. If it gains a bad settlement it will tank quickly and I won't be able to get out what I just reloaded. Looking for 50k shares. Might rather pay the extra pennies tmrw for my own mindset of knowing the market reaction. Just every European news I read says this good. Merkel said it was part of the process needed for long term stability
Might not be turmoil cause forcing the vote if elected he can nominate his own candidates, therefor he gets rid of the opposition. Thus causing any near and future referendums needed a lock to pass thus causing less turmoil. So short term turmoil possible to solve long term turmoil issue that would be lingering.
I just transferred and reloaded. .75 I'm a buyer ,
Was being sarcastic on that one with bond yields. But I do think its the right move
Long-term for NBG this looks like the best thing that could have happened. Might cause the pps to drop a bit over the next 30days but at least we will know in 30 days what the future holds.
Lot of short covering today before and last 30mins a good amount of bids are buy to cover. So to me if this causes shorts to cover must be good.
Gotya, that's basically what I just read on Reuters. Seems like the right move, get the vote done before October when the pension cuts and tax reforms hit that would only cause a negative vote
So am understanding this right?? He's gonna rerun in the election as a moderate with the final things needed to implement the bailout that needed to be voted on. So he's switching party's? Or what?? So confusing... But it looks good cause the yield on bonds jumped from 11% to 12%
Don't think it can get worse, except for the pps, which reacted hard was going back to 78 and just free falled the second he started his speech. Although as long as it holds above 75 think its ok. Kinda explains the trading action today someone knew what was up. They can't renig on deal all the measurements are in place
It's official his resignation is in election to be Sept 20
Preferred shares are even since yesterday, not down nothing. Where common is down this at the beginning. If that doesn't tell you the sell off has everything to do with Athen Index then NBG itself idk. Like a sign yelling buy me buy me I'm gonna go up!
Well looks after all wont be a ugly day. Holding that .50 in Athens. .79 in premarket has buyers. You would think that the shorts would start to cover soon. The risk vs reweard is almost gone for them. We've seen as low as this can go before any possible dilution if needed. There's maybe 10% to the down side more the rest of the year. Possible upside is significantly more. I would cover. Unless your playing the spread, short NBG adr and long the NBG in Athens. Anyone playing that would be long in low .40s over there and short .80ish on adr. Gives you a cushion to hold out for dilution, that is a play in affect.
After opening with a gap down from 55 to 52, it has actual touched .51 a few times the last hour. Holding extremely well, definitely looks like the bottom over there with .50, being main support of all bottoms. Discrediting the second session after the reopen earlier in month
A bail in, allows the banks to hold the junior and senior bondholders accountable for the dept needed to write off. There for any bank account can be wiped that are unsecure in a bail in. I've read this over and over. Banks might be strong but if they can write off dept there not going to do it??
This is what I'm basing that comment off of. No one knows exactly what a bail in might do or include.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-in-greek-banks-face-wipeout-on-recapitalization-1437047435
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bail-in#Bailout_vs._bail-in
http://internationalinvest.about.com/od/glossary/a/What-Is-A-Bail-in-and-How-Does-It-Work.htm
https://www.corbettreport.com/greek-bail-in-cometh-as-eu-tightens-control/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-04/will-greek-depositors-under-%E2%82%AC100000-be-spared-case-bail
No way its hitting .60 . That would be almost 15% down. The whole sector is rebounding in Athens except for Bank of Greece who was actually positive for the day. Only 1/4 of average volume also. Not like its a heavy sell off. Just no one can buy over there cause your money is unsecured. So anyone who can get out and move the money in anyway is. That's the issue right now. Less about stock more about security of money in bank, at least at 4 of the 7 banks could wipe accounts Jan 1st. Would you sell?? And get your money safe? I would
50/50 gets to .75, holding strong at .50, looks like it will close at .51 or higher. Watch the last hour over there it will let you know. The ask just got whacked at .778 for 10k shares. That's a good sign. A lot of people where toutung this on stocktwits last night and early morning cause of technicals and there was a uptrend line starting from four days ago.
Yes only a few shares, but that's the 4am early market not the 730am. So there was only a few avaible to grap. It's definitely gonna plunge today. A buying opportunity. Has to do with overall Greece Exchange . The 530am press release was good news. Can't remember it was exactly, but 4-traders.com, who has free real time Athens had it, someone from ECB stated that he expects the banks to recover faster cause they are not to blame for the overall picture.
Alpha bank -11%
Bank of Greece +.6%
Bank of Cyprus -2%
Bank of Pireaus -8%
Attica Bank -11%
Eurobank Ergasis -10%
NBG -10%
Every bank is getting crushed except for Bank of Greece whos ahead. At least .50 on Athens seems the bottom again where it is. None of this I believe is a direct negative, cause the whole market is down 30%. Except for one company is up 28%. Guess on what?? They just won a furniture contract for the German Army and military base to build desk. (DRO.AT) is the symbol, .12 to .19, after 3 years ago was multi dollar and was delisted from top 100. Might be a good investment. 5 year contract it was. Food for thoughts
Athens Exchange off its lows of 25%. For the day .
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GD.AT