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This is not the top.
This is going higher than 430. Possibly 440.
Upon further review this weekend. I am moving my first entry point for a 10% short position from 4300 to 4350. I believe we are going higher possibly to 4400 or slightly higher. Market rally should continue the entire month of August, with some consolidation pullbacks.
HOw many contracts do you have for dec 2022 puts.
That 430 is a confluence area for sure at this very moment. 200 Ma and your down trend line are both converging here. Conventional wisdom says, we should turn back from there and resume the down trend. However, the skeptic in me says we could poke thru it to pull in some longs and inflict pain on the put players. Having said that 4350 cannot be ruled out. I will enter a small 10% short position thru spxu at 4300 and see what happens.
The large downturn may get initiated August 22 -23 timeframe. Vix may be bottoming at that time.
Personal opinion at this point is that we might exceed 4300 to about 4360.
Can you clarify the "12.5% OE direction" statement
How is Mr Wu doing after going short at 4240.
LOL. I like the way you put it. I was thinking the same thing.
The cloud of doom is now a blue sky with a RAINBOW.
Don't know about risk on or off. In my mind it's simple. SPX is definitely headed to meet the 200 MA at 4328. Place your bets accordingly.
Does not seem like it is going lower than yesterday's low. Heading higher towards the 200 MA.
What is the significance of 4275?
I believe we have a clear path to the 200 MA. Currently sitting at 4328.
what was the prediction
PPT not coming today. Maybe a slightly positive close. But nowhere near the top or in the middle of today's range.
"'Tis remarkable how well the SPY moves in tandem." What are you talking about. BTC is up while SPX is down. So much for a tandem relationship.
I see it. Just wanted his thoughts as well.
BTW, this is the same downtrend number that I had talked about in an earlier post.
Is 430 the down trend line you are talking about.
We are back above the rising trend line from July 14th. Don't know if we will be able to stay above that slope. But even if we fall below it like we did yesterday, chances of 4300 have increased. Could get there by end of next week.
CPI # will be manipulated to show that rate of inflation has peaked. Today looked like an accumulation day. ST technicals are overbought, weekly chart still bullish. 4230 still possible.
September is around the corner for the next rate increase of 0.75 if indications of high inflation persists. There wont be an emergency meeting.
Agreed and it is quite a strong uptrend. I'm thinking even 425.
Based on the downtrend channel in your link. 4300 is a possibility. Very nice chart though. Paints an accurate picture.
4200 not looking likely today.
We are still in a resistance zone 4100 - 4150
Used the same timeframe as yours, but drew the top line a little different. Starting from July 8th (same as you) but touching July 29th on upwards. This gives a little different picture. It does not show prices breaking above the wedge.
4222 will be achieved eventually. Question is, will it be this week or next week. The rate of ascent is quite steep and prices may fall out of the rising wedge by friday and consolidate They may continue upwards to 4222 next week.
He wont. Next hike in september 0.75 and then a quarter point after that and we are done for the year. Further rate hikes will be next year.
What I am not seeing is that the fed is not following thru with their plan to shrink the balance sheet. 135 billion June thru august and 95 billion per month starting september. That will cause a real dilution of assets, including equities.
How is your SPY 500 puts holding up?
4220 is a real possibility, looks like even this week. Only sixty points away. But be careful. The 4220 is on everyone's list and everyone is expecting a big pull back. This may drag on a bit higher to sucker in some longs and also shorts who are expecting a quick downturn from that level. We could see 4300.
Looks like the , "cloud of doom" is turning into blue skies. When are the new charts with new lines coming out.
"We'll SEE" as in no way or maybe.
Just sabre rattling.
The 410 zone may be getting ready to get busted thru to give way to 420
Can you expand on step 3.
What is the death kiss signal.
There are a few things to look at from a technical perspective for upside targets and a reversal from there.
Weekly 50 MA: 4358. Weekly chart also shows a bullish MACD crossover. First time since over 8 months.
200 MA: 4346 Daily chart
Fibonacci retracement of downtrend: 50% = 4227.5 (very likely possibility and is also an area of previous resistance).
61.8 % = 4367 ( unlikely)
The down sloping, upper trendline, from the Jan High currently sits at 4366. But by mid august will descend to about 4300.
At this point there seem to be a lot of targets 4300 or over. I am thinking we will see 4300 or a little higher in the second half of august.
Vix hit below 21.3 today. A move to 4200 will take it below 20 (intraday)
This uptrend is getting parabolic. Bullishness in peaking.
Is Monkey Pox that big of a threat?
If the spx does not bust thru 4100 tomorrow and close above that, then that means AAPL and Amzn report was baked into today's move. Both companies reported blockbuster results. Tomorrow should see a 1% higher close.