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Just checking back in. Looks like we may hit $NDX 1900 before a meaningful bounce. That is where there appears to be some support on the 60min chart. 5min 3day chart still indicating positive divergence. I guess now it's a 4 pushes down??
If DIG close at the high of day, the candles looks like a bullish engulfing. DIG is close to breaking out of the daily Downtrend line.
QLD Classic 3 pushes down? Let's see if it works with the positive D. QID had it's turn last thursday, now it's QLD's turn.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31463032
Blash, that is what I am thinking too on the 60min charts for $NDX with the Right Shoulder around ~1955ish. Then down to $NDX 1866/QQQQ $45.90 which is the down target after we break the $NDX 1920 neckline. That is why I bought some QLDs just recently for a ST trade.
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78.75 is the line in the sand for the Daily QLD Renko charts. A closing value below that, and the signal switches to a sell. That is approximately $NDX 1917/QQQQ 47.13. We came close to $NDX 1920 missed by .99.
Gleno, $NDX 1920 didn't quite hit yet, but we still have 1 1/2 hours before the close. QQQQ/$NDX has developed a bullish falling wedge on the 5min. I just took a stab at QLD for a ST trade. I am seeing a lot of 5min divergences on the MACD and CCI. (Edit- I am hoping this is not a 60 point down day on the $COMP)
El Crap, I got out too early. $NDX 1920 is just 11 points away. (I don't know if we will hit that today. But may be by tomorrow.)
Gleno, so here's the 60min H+S possibility. Now that I just got out of my QID position, the $NDX will now drop to 1920. LOL...
Well, I just got out of my QID ST position that I've been holding since last Thursday for +.65. I think we are getting close to the 60min support on the QQQQ at 47.66 that gleno pointed out. Plus, we tagged the 60min lower BB on the $NDX charts. I will keep my eyes open for another entry. Now that I am out I bet $NDX will drop to the $NDX 1920 level forming the "H" on the 60min. Will post a chart in a sec.
I've been eyeing $NATGAS for a possible entry for the past few days. Daily shows a bullish reversal with the bullish falling wedge, and a positive MACD cross. UNG is the $NATGAS long ETF and the $33.60-$36.70 range on the weekly is showing good support and a possible area to accumulate with a stop right below $33. Watch a break of that steep downtrend line on the weekly and also look at the weekly full stoch at 2.01 (I believe it only goes to 0), and the Williams%R at -99.26 which I believe the lowest value is at -100. (UNG is -100 on the Williams%R on the daily.) It doesn't mean that $NATGAS can't go further down but, I think it's due for a bounce soon.
Gleno 47.96, is support on the QQQQ 5min. Hope that is not the old double bottom. By the way it looks there is a lot of red sell volume at the moment. If 47.96 breaks I have 47.63.
Lefty, I got an idea from your recent post: "I usually resort to trial and adjust measures..for the daily, I don't want a 2 box reversal (meaning white to red, or red to white) to trigger at less than about 5-6% moves on a 2X instrument."
Anyhow, what if we made a renko chart of the 1x ETF to trade off of since they are less volatile than the 2x ETF in terms of price movement in order to reduce whips. (Plus the 2x etfs trades til 4:15 so I notice that closing prices can drop or go up to affect daily brick sizes while the 1x ETF closes at 4PM.)
I don't know how well this would work, I just sampled QQQQ vs QLD and QQQQ on renko appears to have less whip than QLD, so during the time QLD was whipping back and forth QQQQ stayed in the uptrend and we can use QQQQ to stay in the trend once we open a position off the 2X renko chart. But I guess as you have stated, selecting the proper brick size is key. Notice that from March 08 to June 08 there were 4 whips in QLD and only one in QQQQ. I don't know if I selected the correct pt size for QQQQ at .75. This was just a quick chart I threw up, I will have to experiment and see if .80 or 1.00 is a better size. Let me know what your thoughts are and if you have time this weekend to try MDY vs MVV or SPY vs SSO. I got a deadline on a project for Monday so I will be unfortunately working a bunch the rest of this weekend.
Foot, will $GOLD hit close to 775, but I will wait. Let's see if it tags $725? If that fails $675-680 looks to be the next target. $USD looks like it wants to tag 78, and possibly 80 which would be equivelant to ~$675 gold.
OE manipulation.... BTW, watch for a double bottom on the QQQQs @ 48.00 on the 5min charts. I am hoping we break down, since I still have a QID position from yesterday. LOL...
Foot, yes, you are right. I should wait for GLD/$GOLD to turn up instead of trying to fish for a bottom.
Keep $NATGAS on your radar. $35-37 range looks to be good support for UNG on the Weekly. The daily chart shows a MACD cross and the full stock stating to cross above 20. $NATGAS is typically strong from Sept-Dec, as we approach fall/winter for heating.
$GOLD may hit 775 before bottoming which will coincide with the $USD topping. There's a bearish engulfing on $GOLD with today's candle print. But with any candlesticks, you need 2 to make a pattern and the 3rd for confirmation. So if tomorrow is another down day for Gold then we'll probably see 775 the next support level. I'm watching closely, as I will get in with the 2X ETN DGP - double gold contracts.
$USD is just chugging along and may tag 78.
QID classic 3 pushes down. Let's see if the positive D works. Boys comes back in about an hour. If not I'll be out of the QID position and take my loss.
Ok... I might be classified as one of those dumb traders that farooq was talking about. Against better judgement, and against overall Daily trend which is up, I just entered a 1/4 QID. There's a 5min slimjim, but there's also a 60min double top. Not expecting a big retracement here on the $NDX. But I have my finger on the trigger, and there is positive MACD, CCI, divergence on QID and the ADX-9 line is curling down which means the selling pressure on QID is starting to fade for the VST.
Gleno, there's a slimjim for the $NDX/QQQQs on the 5min. I was thinking a possible double top on the 60min $NDX, could be we break in the direction of the overall trend and up through that slimjim. The $RUT is starting to get close to the June 08 highs @ 763.
Looks like a double top on the 60min QQQQ/$NDX charts.
MPTrader on Crude Oil
Ok... QLD Position gone. Out for +2.39.
$NDX 1945 has been hit finally on the 60min chart with the downtrend channel. I guess we have to see whether it breaks up or busts down off the the upper downtrend line. I am getting itchy fingers and am thinking of selling the ST 1/4 QLD trade I opened up around the 12:15 Bar of the 5min chart.
Ok... Well almost up to my targeted bounce of $NDX 1945/QQQQ 47.89. Gotta get back to work.
Gleno, I don't see a bear flag on the 60min. May be a bear flag on the 5min. Anyhow...
Bull flag:
"A Flag (Bullish) follows a steep, or nearly vertical rise in price, and consists of two parallel trendlines that form a rectangular flag shape. The Flag can be horizontal (as though the wind is blowing it), however it often has a slight downtrend.
The vertical uptrend, that precedes a Flag, may occur because of buyers' reactions to a favorable company earnings announcement, or a new product launch. The sharp price increase is sometimes referred to as the "flagpole" or "mast"."
http://www.trending123.com/Chart-Pattern-Scan-Stocks/Technical-Analysis-Trading-Bull-Flags.htm
Watch the upper line of the 60min downtrend channel on the $NDX. We could possible go back up to tag the top/upper trend line of the DT channel, with a possibility of breaking up and out of the 60min bull flag.
Foot, you're probably right, $USD is over-extended at the moment.
I am getting mixed signals so I personally am waiting and watching. The problem is $USD is up, but Gold, Oil, and other commodities are up too. Something is out of sync and only one side will win.
Do or Die for the Dow on the 60mins. Watch the uptrend line and a break of 11500. ($SPX has a similiar uptrend line at ~1275. Watch for a break of that line on the 60min $SPX charts.)
EIA/Petro report coming out at 10:35 AM today. Oil is going up right now.
Mclaren Report... Is to wait and see what happens to the $USD. (Edit although the report I just noticed is from 8/6. But that is his latest update on $USD. $USD is trading @ 76.308 at the moment. He talks about copper today.)
"The last one was around August 8th +- a few days. This has been a fast move up with only one day moves against the trend so a breakout is not out of the question. This will likely show an exhaustion in the next few days and then we’ll see if it can show any ability to trend higher or show a lower high and indicate the uptrend is complete. If it can move past this time window there is a chance a low of some magnitude is in place. Yes it seems almost impossible to justify a further move up by the fundamentals but an exhaustion style of trend is a probability from this pattern of trend.
The commodities and metals still look like important tops are in place. Keep in mind that these markets will exhaust into their next lows, likely with big gaps down. Then there will be a counter trend rally that will likely be multi month."
http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/187/1/August-6-2008-CNBC-SQUAWK-BOX-EUORPE/Page1.html
Foot, we have to watch and see what happens to the might USD$. LOL... Still rising and since Gold and Yen goes the opposite of the $ I don't know if it's a tradeable bottom yet. BTW the $USD etfs are: UUP - Long USD or UDN - Short USD so you don't need a forex acct.
$NDXA50R moved past 50, may tag 80 before a top is in.
15 Min QQQQ Trendline break. (Again not expecting a big correction/retracement, still possible for more up after a pull back.)
$CPC has a bit more to go before topping. Notice when the 21ma moves well past the mid point on the Bollinger band it tends to keep moving until it hits the other end of the BB.
Foot, $NDX out of BB on the Daily with a shooting star/one finger slaute candle. $NAMO is in the stratosphere. The current trend is up. So, looking for a pullback to add to longs, unless 1895 on the $NDX is broken.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html
Gleno, daily bearish shooting star circled. Short-term, in the past it was good for 2-3 days down. Renko QLD using 1.75pts/brick's line in the sand is now $77. Break of $77 which is ~1895 on $NDX on a closing price means the trend has changed to down. We still have 20 mins left before the close, but it sure looks like a shooting star. (Edit - BTW scamman used to call these the 1 finger salute. LOL...)
SKF and $BKX. SKF is at the weekly uptrend line support. $BKX looks to be running into some resistance at 70 on that downward pitchfork. I sold all my UYG ~30 mins ago. Daily $BKX looks like a bearish shooting star so far. Still an hour to go to negate that candle.
Gleno, this is OE after all, ST I think there will be some sort of retracement.
Sure looks that way, especially with oil down, yen down and $USD up. (If the commodities continue to sell off this would definitely support the bull case.)
But, I still think we need to retrace a little bit on the ST/consolidate around that upper downtrend line for a week or two. Also there has been some retracement around the 1.2 level on the $NDXA50R:$NDXA200R ratio charts in the past. (Nasdaq % of stocks above the 50dma to Nasdaq % of stocks above the 200dma) After consolidation it blasted off to the 2 or 3 level.
$NDX Weekly almost there, meaning almost to the upper downtrend channel at 1968. Caution is warranted. Break up of the upper downtrend weekly Channel and we enter a new bull market. Right now we are in a weekly symmetrical triangle. Break down of symmetric triangle at 1825 and we most likely tag the bottom of the downtrend channel making new yearly lows.
Foot, thanks for the yen update. Meanwhile watch this 4 year downtrend line on the $USD. I guess I will figure out what the $USD does before I take a long or short position in gold.
Non-static chart below: