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Thanks.
It certainly would be nice to have a common interface that does away with the problems of DVI and HDMI. I didn't know about UDI; looks like INTC is following its' usual goals of attempting to controll everything. But as usual INTC is late to the party, VESA has been at this for quite awhile.
Since INTC effectively killed 802.11n little has been done to get things going. NOw they're talking about end of 06, beginning of 07 for a final agreement. I guess this process needs to be gone through, but all this jockying for position isn't getting the job done.
http://wifinetnews.com/archives/cat_80211n.html
DisplayPort
http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1558,1813963,00.asp?kc=ETRSS02129TX1K0000532
Me...
Anyone have anything more recent on this issue?
you...
bobs - Hmmm... maybe it'll be time to pick up an LCD soon! :D
me...
Yeah, that was one of the things that crossed my mind. I wonder why the monitor inventory is so high? Based on the great prices they're selling their monitors for, maybe they planned on selling a lot more?
It would be nice to know just what size monitors the inventory is made up of. That would give some indication as to what the problem might relate to.
DELL problems
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/telecom/10258578.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=N...
Them...
In the bullish category, Circuit City (CC:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) this week reported triple-digit sales growth in flat-panel displays. But on the same day, LCD component maker O2Micro (OIIM:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) cut guidance after big buyer Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) canceled an order. O2Micro says Dell's LCD monitor inventory is running double its normal levels.
you...
You'll have to make the decision for yourself, but in order to pick AMD as an investment today, you are betting that they will outgrow Intel; else, their share price is already too high. Intel doesn't have to regain lost share to be a better investment. If they grow at the rate they've been growing, their share price is already too low.
Me...
Your right, AMD will have to continue outgrowing INTC to continue appreciating at the present rate, but that is pretty much a forgone conclusion given the head of steam INTC has so graciously provided AMD. The only question is how much that growth will be now that the capacity shackles have been taken off.
Basing ones estimates on what analysts have predicted lately hasn't proven to be a good indicator of what has actually happened. These guys, like the INTC bees, are sort of staring into AMD's headlights, dumbfounded at what is happening and unable to comprehend the change of events.
I've said it before; earnings are not a very good indicator of a company's health at turning points, either on the way up or down. That's because companies on the way up tend to understate earnings while companies on the way down tend to overstate. Just another thing that should be apparent by the end of 06.
INTC is still a bloated pig, in fact it seems to have been putting on more weight lately in an attempt to eat its' way out of its' problems. What you should be thinking about is what's going to happen to INTC earnings next year when AMD has the capacity, the products and the will to take 1.5 to 2% market share a Q?
Just having parity with AMD products won't be enough to stem the tide; even superior products probably won't be enough in the short term. It's taken INTC a long time to get into this mess and there is no proof yet that the mess is getting any better. For companies, like INTC, that have been so very successful, the attitude is usually why change things that aren't broken. The problem is that things are broken, it's just that INTC management doesn't realize it yet, or doesn't want to admit it. So far the approach has been to do what has worked in the past, namely, throw resources at the problem. What's going to happen this time when earnings start to drop and fab utilization plummets as AMD starts taking big chunks of market share? There are lots of tough decisions in INTC's relatively near future.
You...
At over 8 lbs, I hope you're exaggerating. Not that the specs are bad; in fact, they are quite appealing. But to claim it as a baseline for future designs, I would prefer to see something in the 5-6 lbs range.
Me...
The main point was the 64 bitness. Most people won't need it, this guy is an exception, but it's definitely going to be one more thing INTC has to overcome to get the laptop sale. Since most people probably don't even know about 64 bits, its' value will probably be dependendent on how hard "future proofing" is pushed.
For some battery life will be most important, for others weight will be dominant, for others screen resolution, capacity, speed or price will be the big things. 64 bits is just another thing to consider. Right now it's hard to say how the market will break next year, but I doubt very much if AMD's intrusion into the laptop space will be halted, or even slowed down much by anything INTC does.
You beat me to it. Article is a "Poster child" for 64 bit in laptops.
HP dv8000z Review, Saxman.
http://www.notebookreview.com/default.asp?newsID=2681
Them...
What most attracted me to the machine, however, was the 64 bit Turion chip. I've never owned a machine with an AMD chip, and generally didn't pay much attention to 64 bit computing. A few weeks ago, however, I read a press release that SoftImage, a leading manufacturer of 3D animation software, announced a 64 bit version of their program. This started me thinking more seriously about 64 bit.
Me...
Sounds nice, read the whole article.
Sharp adds 5 new Sempron notebookd; Saxman.
http://www.newlaunches.com/archives/sharp_adds_5_models_to_mebius_line_of_notebooks.php
you...
Maybe it is the packaging and testing that is operating on the Just-In-Time basis...
me...
Could be, AMD might be having the same problems as Spansion? That would make sense if the reports of a general shortage of semi testing and packaging capacity are true. I would be very suprised if much in the way of 130nm inventory exists. I'm sure there is some in the channel, but if supplies are tight, I would expect AMD to have gotten rid of the oldest stuff first. AMD management has been saying consistently that they are running full tilt so there are probably a number of factors involved, as usual.
you..
I think we should keep in mind a couple of factors.
Me..
Yeah, Rev "F" should be right around the corner. AMD probably wants to contain Yonah's low-power story as much as possible. As we get closer to the Vista realease 64 bit should be more of an issue. I wonder if the lack of empahsis AMD has so far put on 64 bit in the laptop area was part of the containing of demand plan? I find it hard to understand why AMD hasn't emphasized that aspect more since laptops are supposed to be the second pressure point.
OEM dumping was a big problem for AMD a few years ago but I haven't heard anything about it lately. Maybe the OEMs are using everything they can get from AMD? Yes, as a processor buyer it seems like a boxed processor with the heatsink/fan and guarantee included would be preferred to a loose one coming from god knows where. Not to mention the guarantee that your not getting some overclocked part Jerry Tong in Taiwan.
Capacity revisited yet again, and again.
The reason I keep harping on this issue, more than anything else, is that I consider it to be the most important thing effecting AMD's health right now.
It occurred to me that in the last post I hadn't speculated on how AMD might be handling the capacity constraint issues. More to the point, how is it that we haven't seen more evidence of capacity problems in the general marketplace?
The overall answer is probably superior management. In specific the fab30 plant manager and the head of marketing along with their staffs have evidently been doing a superlative job of matching capacity with demand.
As to how they may have been managing to a scarce capacity situation; a couple of things seem to continually prop up as complaints on this board and others. I'm thinking of the seeming unwillingness of the OEMs to in-fill and expand product lines using AMD processors and the lack of advertising of AMD products.
Perhaps the lack of acceptance by the OEMs has had more to do with AMD not being able to supply additional processors than a lack of interest by the OEMs? Also, not advertising keeps a lid on demand, while reducing expenses. These things come to mind as possible ways of managing the supply issue, but I'm sure there are other ways being used that I'm not aware of such as restricting promotional incentives etc.
For the most part demand seems to be an OEM issue rather than an ultimate user issue. How many, even technical people, really understand the advantages of say an on board memory controller? Or more importantly, given that the processor is just one part of a system, how can the average consumer easily compare the advantages of one processor to another? Given these problems it seems most likely that the ultimate consumer buys a particular PC based on other factors than the processor, primarily relying on their general feelings about the OEM/seller. Having said this, it is notable that there is a small, but growing, body of PC purchasers that do understand some of the processor issues and choose accordingly.
So from AMD's point of view their primary customer is really the OEMs and these guys are probably concerned with issues that effect cost and supply more than anything else. What it logically comes down to is if AMD can't guarantee supply the OEMs won't go through the expense of expanding product lines. This is probably the primary means AMD has used to restrict demand, just coordinating effectively with the OEMs. End consumer demand by the technically aware just isn't that big a factor compared to OEM demand. To me that's the reason we're not seeing processor shortages in the market, along with AMD's successes at managing other than the OEM demand.
06 should be interesting as it looks like processor supply from AMD and INTC will exceed growth in demand by a large margin. I expect INTC to be the big looser in this, as forces already in place will continue to expand the demand for AMD processors. Indeed, given the growth dynamics AMD has exhibited over the last couple of years it seems most likely that growth will accelerate as projects that were put on hold by the OEMs due to supply constraints are now allowed to go forward. End demand should also be effected as AMD name recognition continues to improve through increased advertising and business becomes ever more aware of the AMD advantages. One other thing that could effect AMD greatly is the law suit. As this thing winds through the courts the media should have a field day. Good lawyers are basically showmen, and this suit if handled properly could be a thing JP Barnum would have embraced.
What I expect to happen is more of what we've seen over the last couple of years. Namely, AMD will continue to take a disproportionate share of the increase in new demand coming from expansion, largely in the markets of China, India etc. Secondly the OEMs will continue to expand and develop new product lines using AMD processors. Third sales of servers and laptops will lead AMD growth percentage gains and due to their profitability effect revenue even more so than currently.
Big unknowns include the effect the PIC will have on sales and miscellaneous expenses. Overall though, embedded processor sales of Geode and Alchemy products will probably continue to increase and even though Spansion will have less of an impact it should still produce a positive rather than a negative effect in 06.
You...
bobs10, remember the times that amd had $60 ASP's? That's about the price of the lowest performing cpu they sell right now, with the more expensive ones a couple of hundred dollars more expensive. That doesn't look like they have to price to sell.
me...
Yeah, acceptance of AMD products has come a long way in the last few years. I suspect that the capacity issues had something to do with this, though having better designs probably was the major reason. Heck, I remember a time when AMD selling good chips for $35.
Only recently has AMD started to evolve out of being basically a boutique producer. For AMD to move on to the next level they now need to increase volume a lot. One of my favorite indicators of how well a company is doing is revenue per employee. When I get some time I'll post more about this, but for now AMD has been able to compete with INTC by doing things smarter and hence with less employees. There's a lot of profitability to be gained at AMD through economies of scale that will only happen with much greater production. With the added volume AMD will have more room to lower prices, etc., etc.
Last attempt at capacity, for now.
Ok, let's take another look at this issue from a different perspective. We know that up until a couple of years ago, or so, AMD was perennially stuck at about 7M processors a Q. Today AMD is producing somewhere around 11+M processors a Q. So in the last 2+ years AMD has managed to increase production by much greater than 50%.
A couple of things. First, the period roughly correlates with the introduction of Opteron, after a somewhat slow start. Second during that period there were at least two inflections points in productive capacity, at 90nm and to a lesser extent the Rev "E" move. Third, at no time during the increase in capacity was there a corresponding increase in inventory even though the scaling of the capacity additions were highly irregular.
Well, what does all this mean? To me it indicates that the best indicator of processor sales during the last 2+ years has been AMD's capacity to produce processors. Further, there is every indication that had AMD the capacity to produce say 13M processors today, all those processors would be sold. So from that point of view, yes, AMD has been capacity constrained.
Does this mean that with fab36 coming online we can expect an immediate tripling of production? Obviously not, but I bet there are a lot of people at AMD trying to figure out just how many processors AMD can make and what the ramp should be to maximize revenues without hurting ASPs. Because AMD has been successfully selling everything it has been producing for the last 2+ years this is uncharted territory that AMD will more than likely move aggressively, but with caution into.
OK, a couple of things concerning the market today and that of a couple of years ago. 2+ years ago AMD had virtually no presence in either the server or laptop markets and the presence it had in the workstation, desktop market was marginal at best. So the problems AMD had back then mainly had to do with getting OEMs to adopt Athlons/Opterons and create lines of products. This proved to be a daunting problem that resulted in a very slow uptake despite the obvious advantages that AMD processors presented. Today, the situation is much different. Even though there is still a great need for the OEMs to expand their lines and add new AMD based products, that is not where the battle will be fought. Today AMD has the name recognition and presence to attack INTC on a product by product basis. This means that the next battle will be won by taking sales from INTC and not by introducing new products.
So far there is nothing that indicates that AMD is anywhere near meeting market demand for AMD processors. So what I expect is for AMD to push its' new capacity into the market as fast as it can, based on OEM acceptance and INTC counter measures. Next year should be very interesting. Next year at this time we should have a much better idea just how capacity constrained AMD is right now.
me...
Yeah, I agree with most everything you said, but as I remember it there were some questions as to the makeup of the q3 inventory carryover being processors or flash. Anyway, for a company that was stuck at 7M processors a Q for the longest time they have made a great deal of progress this year.
From the postings of others that know better than I, there still seem to be lots of areas in which AMD doesn't have full product lines. It remains unclear as to why that is, demand or supply, INTC pressure, or something else.
you...
AMD used to sell A64 3000, that was priced between $140 and $150 for the longest time. It is not available any more. The lowest speed grade is A64 3200 now, sold for $174:
Me...
Yeah, that's just one of the many things that causes a gut feeling that while AMD isn't in desperate straits in the supply area, fab36 production could have been put to good use awhile ago. From my point of view it does look like AMD has done a creditable job in managing the capacity issues. However, one has to wonder if the spot outages at places like Best Buy that are being reported would have occurred if fab36 had come online 6 months ago? More to the point, one has to wonder if HPQ's commitment to AMD would be deeper today if AMD could have promised more production sooner?
Anyway, it certainly looks like AMD is going to have a great Q. Today's price movement seemed to be foretaste of the market's reaction to the IPO given the increasing likelihood that the IPO is going to get done this week?
AMD shortages
AMD has stated often that they have a current capacity of about 12.5M processors a Q, that’s probably a theoretical limit at the end of 05. Having been involved in manufacturing production (not semiconductors) I can tell you that the last 10% is very difficult to achieve, but the profits, at that point, in a high fixed cost business are tremendous as variable costs are the only things that reduce selling price. Further, AMD has been consistently, over the last few Q’s, saying that they have been producing at max capacity, even as demand has continued to increase through out the year. Actually, I've been most impressed with the way AMD has managed to handle the supply problem. Rev "E" must have been a dozy as 90nm alone wouldn't explain the relatively few supply problems that have been reported so far. Overall, at the end of 05 I suspect that AMD is probably producing at a capacity of probably about 11.5 to 12M processors a quarter and selling everything it can produce.
The question seems to be whether AMD has been able to keep up with increases in demand even as it has been able to increase production through 190nm and Rev "E" changes. Personally I think we'll find out that in q4 AMD depleted its' inventories and was shipping as fast as fast as the chips hit the loading dock. While one would have preferred that production met supply, that's not a bad scenario for the introduction of fab36 production. Again, with the INTC shortages and fab36 coming online just as demand seems to be ramping, the stars seem to have aligned in AMD's favor once again. Not that I expect much out of fab36 until late in q1, but given seasonal trends AMD should be able to continue meeting demand at present levels until fab36 starts to contribute.
Anyway, they’re at least 2 flavors of shortages. The one we're all familiar with is where we go into a store and can't find the computer we want. The other, more insidious type of shortage, occurs when AMD can't guarantee to supply an OEM. This not only results in reductions in the numbers of processors produced by AMD, but also limits the production of expanded OEM products, product lines, and new products. Again, I think this has been the bigger problem as I doubt that AMD would want its' credibility marred by over promising, as it has done in the past. It's more a case of what might have been than apparent shortages.
This is not the sort of issue that can be solved right now. Only in hindsight will we know the true extent of the supply issue. If say AMD is producing and selling 25% more processors at this time next year one could make a strong case that currently there is lots of demand that is not being met with supply.
You...
The stock is still within a buck or so of 4-year highs. Look at it this way-- the IPO is probably going to happen in the next couple weeks. Feel better? :)
Me...
Personally I don't see the imperative to get the IPO done this year. Perhaps AMD wants to start 06 with a clean slate? Considering that it's almost December and the Holidays are looming it's more likely that the thing will be put off until next year, but who knows? I suspect the banks/brokerages want the thing done to help their year-ends, but what's the rush otherwise? Especially, if things are only going to be getting better at Spansion as it appears.
What I was complaining about is this quarterly reincarnation of the run at AMD. There seems to be a group out there that tries to pump up the stock every quarter before deflating it. It does look like others are waking up to the situation and are now using it to add to their AMD positions.
If I'm right about this AMD should remain under pressure for awhile longer.
In any case this drop has absolutely nothing to do with Spansion not getting profitable in q4. Just a convenient pretext for those looking for reasons.
Here we go again
This is getting about as predictable as spring following winter. Yesterday the toe was put into the water on a down day and today the imersion takes place on an up one.
It looks like $25 is what their after, but I suspect that smarter people than those doing the selling understand the game and will start to buy big time as $25 is approached.
These sharks need to be taught a big lesson.
AMD/INTC both to grow 15% next year.
http://www.reed-electronics.com/electronicnews/article/CA6285847.html
you...
I worry some of the RB posters may have let their enthusiasm cause them the make overly risky AMD investments. It's good to hear from any of the old-timers...just to know they are alright.
me...
Yeah, it seems to be the ones that got in early or are just to pig-headed to have known better that are still around. I'm sure there are a lot of AMD wounds still festering in those unfortunates that got in late and sold late into the hole with no bottom.
Personally, I have a whole lot of regrets about the way I handled my AMD investment, but it's hard to argue with the way the stock has been performing lately.
What's going on with CRAY?
you...
yeah, i exchanged a couple emails with denver magic a couple weeks before he left RB, and after that... *poof*. no clue where he went.
me...
Ok, it's starting to come back. As I remember it he only posted for a short time, but I can't remember what his emphasis was on.
you...
What happened to economaniac? I liked his economic overview, is he on SI?
Me...
Yeah, I think I mentioned awhile ago that I have more of his posts bookmarked than anyone else. From a technical point of view his posts make great reading. I too wish he would post more. Also, how long have you been in AMD? I know you were posting back in the RB days.
You...
Whatever happened to Denver Magic?
The other stock I've kept a hand in and was posting about ob RB is/was APPL.
me...
What was the Denver Magic reference about?
You should have done very well with APPL. IPOD has lent an aura to the whole APPL line.
You...
bobs10 - I used to post on RB(rarely) as well, just lurked on SI back then, of course.
(Any thoughts on whom JasonBourne reminds you of? ;) )
Me...
No, give me a hint.
How long have you been in AMD?
I seem to remember you back in the RB days. I know you only post occasionally, but I seem to remember you as being one of the few AMD bent posters left from that period. CJ is another and sgolds. Its' been a very long, hard ride.
you...
Thanks Hector
Me...
The more of Hector I see the more I like. I particularly like his attitude of doing well by doing good. None of this interest in the third world would have happened if Hector hadn't started the ball rolling with 50/15 and the PIC.
The green initiatives AMD has pursued in everything from processor design to plant operation haven't hurt either.
I also like the way the guy has been able to take a relatively small company, with very limited resources and by developing partnerships with other companies make AMD into much more than it could have been by alone.
But the one thing that sets AMD management off from INTC's is a willingness to take the hard road and not look for short cuts. This straight-laced approach has resulted in a near error free execution, the results of which, we're only now beginning to see reflected in the way the company is viewed by investors.
So far the guy has done an excellent job of managing AMD through some difficult times. If he keeps this up Hector is going to be getting a lot better known to the world in general as well as the business community.
convergence is picking up
SFA is being bought by CSCO
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051118/bs_nm/scientificatlanta_dc
Anyone looked at the new XBOX-360? Looks like MSFT is getting into the harware business in a big way.
http://www.anandtech.com/systems/showdoc.aspx?i=2610&p=7
Considering that you need a $550, 7800 GTX GPU for starters in any home HTPC you build, it's looking like MSFT will be taking over the home PC market soon. Both INTC and AMD seem seriously outclassed in this market and it doesn't help any having MSFT dragging its' feed on the MCE for the PC. Talk about INTC being a monopoly, you ain't seen nothing yet, MSFT is going to take over the world. And this thing is so chock full of propritary items like wireless that INTC is probably gasping in admiration.
Notably HD graphics up to 1080i are supported(you need the 7800 GTX to do 1080P), but this box is going to be more than adequate for the vast majority of people that are looking for a home HTPC like experience. When MSFT puts a couple $100 more into the XBOX, and they will, that will be the end of the home PC market.
Right now it looks to me like MSFT wants to separate the the Hope PC market into low end gamers like the XBOX and high end units that use conventional PCs and run MCE. The big problem with this strategy is the difference in cost of the 2 solutions. An HTPC solution can easily cost 2 grand or more, just talking computer stuff. Of course HP and others have MCE solutions priced at about $1000, but as far as I'm concerned these are still works in progress that probably won't prove adequate until about the time vista is released. The real problem is the software that lags way behind what's needed. It doesn't help any having MSFT controlling the only really competitive solution out there and dragging its' feet on adding necessary features like handling HD cable/satellite infeeds.
Not a pretty picture by any means. Things are changing very fast.
You...
If my math is correct, HP sold $211M worth of Itanium based Integrity servers last Q and $258M this Q.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=21896088
Joe
PS: 65% growth in blades looks impressive. I think blades is one area that has a complete Opteron offerings (unlike other server segments, where Opteron covers only some segments). So the chances are that Opteron is what made the difference for HP in blades.
Me...
22% gain isn't bad and $258m isn't chicken feed, but that's much less than INTC had in mind when they released Itanium. It will be interesting to see if Itanium can keep it up next year. It looks like Itanium could be around for awhile, let's hope so.
Maybe I'm going nuts but did HPQ change the data on
http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/investor/financials/quarters/2005/q3presentation.pdf
page 11 is now page 9 and the data is different?
you...
Well they did well on an operating basis but they had a bunch of
charges that really clobbered GAAP. I don't know what the expectations were.
Me...
Yes, HPQ is a big company, and I'm not that familiar with the structure. The $.51 is the figure people will look at and I think the market was expecting $.48.
If I'm reading things correctly it looks like Itanium sales were 70% of BCS(business critical systems) sales which were down 1% Y/Y with HP-UX sales up 1%. I thought HP-UX was being phased out? Anyway, BCS sales represented 23% of ESS revenues which in turn were 19% of company revenues which means Itanium sales were about 3% of HPQ's total revenues.
Nice jump in blade servers, 65%. ISS(industry standard servers X86?) were up 12% q4. A quick looks through the financials revealed nothing about the makup of ISS sales.
It doesn't look like this should hurt AMD though it's difficult to determine contributions at this level of reporting.
you...
Which would be funny since HP sells way more IPF gear
than Opteron gear, revenue wise.
Me...
Have you looked at DELL vs HPQ over the last year?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=DELL&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=hpq
Just why do you think the two have diverged so much? Hint it doesn't have anything to do with HPQ having to carry INTC. Of course things like that are hard to see when everything looks INTC blue.
Believe it or not there are a lot of investors that see the HPQ turn around as largely an AMD thing. You can rest assured the divergence doesn't have anything to do with Itanium sales, which have probably been an overall drag on HPQ profitability when sunk R&D costs are factored in. At least DELL had the good sense to deep-six Itanium; still it's obvious from the graphs that wasn't enough for the market.
You...
I am sure Doug can explain away the embarrassing spectacle
of a supercomputer with over 10k Opterons needing a pile of
FP accelerator boards to beef up its performance.
Me...
Not answering for Doug, but this was probably a bone tossed to Sandia for political purposes (INTC pressure). In any case, given CRAY's recent announcements, it looks like the likelihood of a repeat performance is nil. Just another place where Itanium isn't wanted.
Incidentally, I just opened positions in both CRAY and SUNW today. Not big ones, but initial bets that at least one of them will double in value over the next 2 years. Both are skipping along at near their 5-year lows and seem to be good turn around bets. I'm basing this mostly on their substantial commitments to Opterons and the opportunity those chips afford.
There are good reasons why both are out of favor currently, but both seem to be doing what is necessary to position themselves for future growth. In any case the risk/reward situation seems favorable with little risk of much more downside in either and either one could appreciate a lot.
As usual, I'll be watching closely and if things start to deteriorate too much without overall progress I'll just cut my losses.
Looks like market is expecting big things from HPQ.
I hope they don't disappoint as many will use HPQ as a litmus test concerning how well AMD is doing.
Jefferies & Company report...
AMD focused its guidance and highlighted further heavy CapEx
spending in 2006 and 2007. AMD is behind in their manufacturing
migration and Intel is coming on line fast with their 65nm production.
We maintain our HOLD rating and $22 price target.
Me...
The whole report seems predicated on INTC having a huge cost advantage with 65nm/300mm. While INTC may have 65nm product that their selling no one knows just how many they're yielding or how they're binning. Further, so far it doesn't look like 65nm is helping much with heat/power issues and INTC is still saddled with ancient FSB technology that requires huge caches to be competitive. This of course means huge chips that reduce whatever 300mm/65nm advantage INTC has. Further, INTC doesn't have SOI and APM which I suspect will limit INTC's capacity.
Too much conjecture based on what INTC is saying for me. I think I'll wait awhile before I start worrying about the sky falling.
Again, between fab30, fab36, and Chartered I suspect AMD should be able to produce north of 100m processors a year, even with the expected increased size of chips. If that means AMD is going to be capacity bound any time soon I would be delirious with joy.
Jefferies & Company report...
We remain at a HOLD with a price target of $22, based on a
carve-out analysis of AMD's MPU business as a stand-alone unit. We have taken Intel's historical price/earnings multiples of 22x and applied it against our revised CY2006 estimate of $1.03 for the Microprocessor division to obtain our price target of $22. As a result, we believe the stock is fairly valued to our price target.
Me...
While I agree that AMD needs to get going on the next fab, I think his estimate of $1.03 is off by at least 50%. Imagine using INTC's historical PE to value AMD. That alone ought to tell anyone that this guy is from another planet.
Over all he seems to be making the usual INTC biased analyst mistakes in that he seems to unquestionably accept everything INTC says while discounting everything AMD says. From an AMD point of view it's difficult to understand these biases, but these guys have had many years to develop them and it's not something easily shed.
Notably I find it amazing the way these guys talk about INTC's new products as if AMD is standing still. From my point of view the large cache/ancient FSB issues will relegate INTC to second class price/performance for as far out as I can see, no matter how many 65nm fabs INTC has. And that doesn't even take into consideration the superior manufacturing processes AMD has.
In any case AMD is going to take market share from INTC going forward and there is nothing INTC can do about it. The only question is how much market share it will be?
you...
wbmw, they should have some products that can be outsourced, if AMD can build all their stuff with one fab yet Intel doesn't have enough capacity then something's rotten.
Me...
Yes like a pile of week old fish. But then WMBW continues to assure us that SOI, DSL and APM are only of value to a Boutique producer like AMD. These things are actually of no value to a mass producer like INTC where cost is more important.
Yet, everything seems to indicate that AMD is producing huge numbers of processors out of a single aging 90nm/200mm fab. It doesn't take an Einstein to figure out that something stinks to high heaven.
The way things are going WBMW may have to revisit his thoughts about just who the Boutique producer really is.
The Article...
LONDON — Spansion, the flash memory venture between AMD and Fujitsu, is planning to collaborate with ‘strategic partners’ to integrate logic blocks into its MirrorBit technology that would form the basis of a new line of products dubbed Logic on Flash.
Me...
This collaboration shouldn't come as a surprise as FLSH and AMD have been collaborating for years on various projects. FLSH is better known for its' error correction in NAND methodologies and its' ability to get NAND to act like NOR. It's also closely aligned with Saifun.
This is just the sort of project that continues to make me wonder just what the rush is to get rid of Spansion. From my point of view I'm just happy that the IPO is more of an accounting thing than a sale.
Here's an article that will supply a taste of what's going on.
http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000026771
Them...
Was Kedem hinting at the laptop revolution? Discussion has recently begun about the next stage of the mobile storage revolution, in which flash chips with capacity of 4 gigabytes or more will in future be installed in hard disks, which will make possible an enormous saving in the energy consumption of mobile computers. The idea is that the hard disk won’t operate while the flash chip is registering information. It will only go into action to access information from the flash chip, after the flash chip is full.
In the model presented by Samsung and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) six months ago, the hard disk will operate for only three-to-four seconds during every 30 minutes that the mobile computer is working. Those in the know are betting that M-Systems is already working on this product with one of the giants, either Intel or Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), and that this growth engine will start working in another two years. M-Systems will appear at a conference on this subject in early December in the US.
Me...
There's more to the article and yes I have held a position in FLSH stock for a number of years.
you...
Small minds are incapable of seeing the changes in leadership that are happening in this industry. Lot of small minds on this board, spouting the same old Intel line that nobody wants anything that Intel doesn't have.........
Me...
Yeah, well just wait until INTC releases all those new processors it has in the wings, then things will be different. Yeah, then things will be really different, really they will be. I've got a friend of a friend that works for Elbonian Electric and he assures me that things are going to be different this time, and if anyone knows he does. No doubt about it things are going to be different this time, for sure, absolutely.
Cramer...
Cramer said the "unthinkable" has happened and that AMD has been outperforming Intel and will continue to outperform Intel. The reason, said Cramer, is AMD's management. "AMD's management is wiping the floor with Intel."
Me...
While Cramer flops around more than a fish out of water, that's a pretty definitive statement. It's nice to see someone recognizing that INTC's management is in a class of its' own. There's really nothing anyone can say except that AMD wouldn't be where it is to day without all the help INTC management has so graciously bestowed upon AMD. As an AMD investor I can't thank Barrett and Otellini enough for the truly insightful way they managed to do just about everything wrong that could have been done wrong. I especially want to thank them for choosing a proprietary Itanium over X86-64 as the direction to send INTC. This decision, while just one of many that lit the way, was without a doubt INTC's management highest achievement. Nowhere in all the annals of business has there ever been such a case of one business so willing to help the needs of a competitor.
You can bet this is just the beginning. We're going to be hearing a lot more from analysts in the near future on this subject.
A little off subject, but I wonder if it was Cramer doing all the buying this morning? It wouldn't surprise me any given his comments. Still having him on board is good while it lasts.