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A bounce at the 1560 area to new highs. Or, the 3 wave a-b-c turns into something deeper and we get a 1-2-3 with a 4 and a 5 to come.
Read my last post. I think we may go further just to scare all the bulls. Watch sentiment on this pullback too.
I really could not tell you. I do not watch the market that closely. I just think we may pull back further than most think just because lots of people are talking about buying the dip. I think the market needs to scare some people here.
1560-1565
Looks like this was the right call.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ghclyyay[d5][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...
Goldman warns and I see some semis up. Just like when BRCM got downgraded a week ago. It has been up $5.00 since.
Isn't that bearish divergence when the indicators are lower with this high?
I think we are up a few points tomorrow morning and then we complete the C down. The only question I have is this. What is it a C of. Would that be the c of iv of 3 of some sort?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ghclyyay[d5][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...
With two gaps now on the NDX, it is just a matter of time before we get a good dumping.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]fhclyyay[d10][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10...
The 50 day is coming up and looks like it will pierce the 200 day on the Sox. That usually is very bullish. Sox would need to sell off quite hard in order for that not to happen.
Sox jello off of the top looks like another high is coming. You may be right, but I think the top of this channel will probably come into play, and that is around 450 or so. Market has zero downside momentum here.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$sox,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[d20040404,20041220][pb50!b200!f][vc...
I hate trying to make counts during options expiration. There is just so much garbage going on. Here are a couple of counts. An impulsive move in blue, and a corrective on in red. Either could be in play here. That gap will be everything.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ghclyyay[d5][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...
AJ, that is a nice head and shoulders setup. That target is pretty darn low.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=akam,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[dd][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...
And this time is different. I don't buy it.
Whenever that indicator gets that low, it is time to be on warning. I do not see anything yet in the charts that would tell me we are going to dump, but I would not dismiss that indicator.
No idea. I think the only thing that makes sense would be in the neighborhood of 1257 on the S&P 500. That is a fib retrace off of the highs. .618 from the all time highs.
That would probably correspond with 1750 or so on the NDX which would be a double top. But, those targets are merely guesses.
MC, this looks quite clean to me.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]whclyyay[df][pf][vc60][ilb5!lb14!lh5,5!li10,...
MC, as I have mentioned to you before, I think that scenario you had would have stretched the wave 4 out way to long for Ewave rules. I think we are completing wave 5's across the board here.
We would be right in the heart of the iii of 5 on the NDX.
Justa, I agree. I see the Biotechs acting poorly. I posted my chart reflecting a big move down in that index.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$btk,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[db][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...
Gee, another person not looking for down. I sure feel better.
Sears almost doubled in less than a month. Insane.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=S,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[db][pf][vc60][iLb14!Lb5!Lh5,5!Li10,10!...
AJ, that KKD wedge looks just too steep to me. Looks like maybe it is doing a iv of some sort with another dump to come.
I agree, looking at some charts, it is difficult to see bigger down coming. This setup still exists for me, a C down on the BTK.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$btk,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[db][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...
And, that Sox wedge is real too. Of course, if it breaks up, market could take off. But, BRCM, hit a target that I had. I was thinking it would go to $31.00 and it almost got there. Qcom, looks bad. Possible head and shoulders, and still the big wedge breakdown. Now, of course, these could go up and that would be a buy signal.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qcom,uu[w,a]whclyyay[d20021008,20041208][pf][vc60][ilb14...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qcom,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[db][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...
If Qcom can get back into that wedge, I am going long.
Is Zeev bearish? Do you know? I thought I heard someone say he had his bear suit on.
Yes Freep, but nobody and I mean nobody is expecting big down. The least most people I hear from are looking for is a shallow pullback. I still like that gap fill at 1520 so I will watch for that.
I am betting on down either way. The up off of the lows today looks pretty b'ish so even if the NDX does not make 1520, I would be happy.
Futes barely up, and it is way too early to even worry about them. I think we are down good tomorrow for the iii of C.
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html
I think that 1520 gap might get filled on this down. The a=c area is higher than that, but I think when gaps are that close they are like magnets.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]ghclyyay[d5][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...
I think the key to any pullback here will be sentiment. If those bullish readings do not reset, I think the rally is over. Just my opinion, but there are some charts out there that could indicate top or continuation, so I am not smart enough to guess which way we go.
At least 1500. That breakout needs to be tested.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[d20031212,20041212][pf][vc60][ilb14...
Channel needs to be watched. It is about to bust.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[db][pf][vc60][ilb14!lb5!lh5,5!li10,...
This sure looks like a complete a-b-c with a wedge throwover. Complete with an ending diagonal. That would be extremely ugly for the Sox if that is the read. With all of the bullishness out there, I would not discount it.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SOX,uu[w,a]dhclyyay[d20040404,20041220][pf][vc60][iLb14...
Right at the double top area for the QQQ's and NDX.
Typically yes, that is Delta Hedging. Sorry, I guess I misunderstood your question. Typically the Max Pain theory states that prices gravitate toward that area where most people lose. Delta Hedging goes to the extreme the direction of the market.
Burk, typically would mean we would have a down week to get closer to max pain, but who knows what is going to happen. It would take a helk of a dump for the markets to get to max pain, I do not see it happening.
I meant by Delta Hedge that we are just melting up. I actually may agree with AJ, in that we could see another top, maybe a dip first.
I am looking at short postitions here. There are so many calls out there on individual stocks it is sick. All of the QQQ calls are below, they are all in the money.
Short squeeze? Hell, all the puts are way below on the QQQ's. If anything, this could turn into a delta hedge runaway.
This just keeps creeping lower. I doubt we tank today, but Justas signal may be consistant with sentiment reaching very low levels.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$cpc,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dd][pc10!f][vc60][J9854748,Y]&am...
MXIM appears to be in a 3 down here off the local high of last week. No es pretty.
MXIM, BRCM and Qcom look terrible. MXIM is breaking down today.
And off of that high at $20.53, it could be in a very nice 3rd wave down.
Sox looks like crap to me, I am betting on some down.