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Absolutely agree with you Johnsyn. Better to follow your own council or professional guidance. The PPS has been seriously shaken by weak hands. Had they held their nerve the PPS would still be around .20
Guess we just need some new partners and an entry point of around .15 ish is a great starting point.
Good post sunny9 and when you look at the numbers these luxury goods are losing it can't be long before they bang on the door of APDN and protect their brand and if anything reinforce their image as luxury goods manufacturers.
Clearly they are going to have to do something soon, with APDN on board finding the fakes would be easy :)
Lol yes according to my broker if APDN was valued on rumours it would be trading in dollars not cents :)
That said I do like the fact that the company are aiming high, just one new account could be worth millions.
As we have said before all stocks pop up and down and a decent PR and this stock will fly :)
Just for info my broker opinion is this is due to a couple of large holding "sloppy sellers" the problem with this is as the PPS drops others jump on the bandwagon and increase the selling momentum. As has been said before the numbers won't have a real impact on the PPS till Q3 or Q4. It sounds like the recent drop is only short term.
Interesting I asked about the GSK rumour and he has heard the story. He knows that the company are not chasing small fry. When they score a contract or pilot scheme it will be major potential business which is what makes this company so exciting. I understand they are talking to numerous major manufacturers who are household names and my thoughts are that we will soon get a PR which justifies the support the company has.
GLTA
Johnsyn we are missing something here. The numbers are poor, worse than the same period the year before.
Accounts will only tell us part of the story, and for the period in question sales were dreadful. I cannot even see if any of the million dollar pilot programme is in there.
And yet we all know the positives, the mandate, London police, sweden's copper, textiles increased personnel, bigger production etc etc
They got the creda deal based on these numbers??? No I don't think so. There has to be so much more going on in the background leading up to the investment. The good Dr needs to protect creda's position.
I will stick my neck out and say we are about to get some meaningful PR's soon, very soon based on these numbers or if not in the very near future our good Dr will drop some quality info during the conference call tomorrow.
APDN is a unique business and we all know its massive potential. I am still APDN long, I don't think the PPS will drop much if at all tomorrow but I do think the business has to show it can convert real interest and cutting edge technology into hard sales. I posted a while back that the "professionals" didn't expect real improvement until Q3 or Q4 but it has to start to achieve higher sales and move towards break even quickly.
We all believe in the business now its time to start to deliver some of the potential it undoubtedly has.
Lets enjoy the CC tomorrow I expect it to very positive and I think everyone will feel much happier after hearing a little of what's going on behind these numbers.
GLTA
You know Johnsyn its a strange scenario. The suppliers don't want to comply with the mandate and have come up with lots of reasons. The DLA having taken out the biggest objection cost still has not solved the problem.
Counterfeit parts enter the supply chain and FAIL costing the US Government millions. All this tosh about only a small fraction of our turnover goes to this part of the mandate is actually pretty lame.
I think the DLA thought that responsible suppliers would do whatever it takes to ensure NO counterfeits enter their system. If they used the DNA on all chips they could guarantee compliance. It would be cheaper for the government to pay the additional cost rather than put Warfighters at risk. Whilst I accept there is a problem with regards to implementation the truth is counterfeit parts enter the system, period. Now who is prepared to guarantee it is not them????
I think the mandate will be rolled out and soon because I agree with you Johnsyn the arguments against are simply not good enough to protect our Warfighters and our people NOW.
Quite right Johnsyn who knows :)
Probably wise to prepare for the subtle hints we got last time it was conference calls by our Dr. The clues were there we just had to decipher what we could. Maybe this time things will be clearer. Certainly since the last call we have a number of positives. The DLA agreeing to pay the license fee, the deal with creda and cash in the bank, our Swedish copper contract etc etc
I would not be surprised if others take the opportunity to climb aboard before we get what I think will be good news. Perhaps the PPS will rise today, we will see :)
Interesting sunny 9 good post.
We will now soon enough what the actual numbers are and there has been lots of speculation on this board as to the expected number.
As we get close to the financials the tree is shaken and a few week hands drop off. Strangely the PPS is not that influenced yet by the actual numbers as evidenced with the last quarters earnings and I think this quarter will be the same though if anything I think APDN is going to get a lot more exposure quickly once the numbers are posted.
What I do know for sure is that creda invested millions 2 months into this quarter. I don't think they would have invested if the numbers were looking like being in the region of $300k.
I still think the number will be over $1 million and I think this has been partly confirmed by pay rises etc.
Like DS rightly says the company is only moving in one direction UP UP UP. It has cash in the bank and plenty of contracts to work on.
We might see the PPS actually move higher tomorrow as investors try to get a steal on the good news I believe is coming we will see :)
GLTA
Welcome vans to be honest .206 is a pretty good entry point with very little downside in my opinion.
I think the financials will be much better than the previous quarter and whilst that in itself might not move the PPS too much the PR's that will inevitably follow certainly will !!
In my opinion if creda are happy investing millions at just over .22 anyone buying in just below are sitting very comfortably...
Hope you enjoy the ride :)
Well done yip, I love the fact that you sent this to APDN :)
Thanks WT another no news day so far so should be interesting :)
Yes it does seem as though this stock is comfortable in the range you suggest. I do think the financials due soon will push us beyond this.
I have not looked at the stock you mention, but I do like the fact that APDN have been around for years slowly building. Looking at the media attention given to suspect parts, and counterfeiting the potential market is so big I doubt there would be many stocks out there with such potential.
I am quite happy with APDN and I still think the PPS is cheap. It won't be too long before I expect this stock to trade over a dollar, maybe the next year or so. For me unlike some on this board I don't think the PPS fully recognises the potential of this stock and that is why current price is so good. Low risk but massive potential return :)
Very quiet on the board here today. Hope everyone is having a good day. The need for more PR's is somewhat reduced as the PPS is doing really well.
I'm looking forward to the financials as I think the right number will create a stampede to get in quick. I feel very comfortable with the current situation. There is little downside to this stock and I think those getting in at around .21 are buying at a very good price :)
Thanks Johnsyn, think things will get really interesting next week ever closer to financials :) have a great weekend all and thanks for the posts, as always very enjoyable reading.
Yes I agree Johnsyn any price around .22 is a great entry point. I really don't think it will take long for the government to roll out the mandate.
The more I think about APDN and the problems encountered by commerce and industry relating to counterfeits the more I think APDN is a great buy.
We are the only solution to a multi billion dollar problem. The US government recognise the problem and know that we are at this time the only solution.
Personally Johnsyn I don't think I'm brave enough to short this stock because one day soon this share will be trading at much higher levels. It feels like the torch paper has been lit but who knows when this rocket will take off :)
I'm sure we will recover the last two days early next week. Probably due a pr next week too :)
Lots of short selling as you said. Still proving to be an extremely resilient stock, and I think heading closer to financials will generate more interest :)
Thanks DS and Sunny. We are entering a crucial phase of the history of APDN.
If I was a decision maker within the US government as soon as I was comfortable that APDN could handle additional volume I would roll out the mandate. Why ? Because although there is a cost for using APDN the US government will still save millions of dollars yearly not having to repair/replace product failure due to counterfeit parts. And the public demand our Warfighters be protected whatever the cost.
I think in the next month or two we will find out just how much has been going on behind the scenes which will only benefit little people like us the part owners of this incredible business.
GLTA
Sorry dropped the phone :)
More PR's will come and I think this stock has shown great strength at around .20 even with a very poor sales quarter last year. Even if you are right AG at around 600k ( and I predict around 1.2 million ) there is very little downside PR's release if financials. One thing we should all remember is creda thought .2232 was a good price to invest millions and I doubt they would invest millions to make a big loss.
We all have different thoughts and ideas and I wish everyone good luck.
I think you were bang on some weeks ago AG. As a business proposition the mandate did not make good financial sense to suppliers of such a small value of business. The Government have a big problem with counterfeit parts costing potentially millions of dollars and even worse the safety of our people.
The mandate is the right response to the problem and the government will not accept defeat. It is clear that today APDN is the ONLY 100% SOLUTION to the problem. By paying the license fee the government now make this a no brainer for the suppliers quibbling about cost.
It is obvious having invested so much money the more parts included by the government in the mandate actually makes it easier for suppliers to comply. Mandate roll out will happen and soon.
I am still acquiring shares and now have 950,000 and I actually think the optimum time to invest in this stock is before financials, in fact people like me buying in at around .22 I still think is a good price.
The PPS will in my opinion rise closer to financials as this quarter should be the first quarter we actually see a dramatic improvement in sales and I think people will buy in expecting a good quarter. We should get more PR's
Just spoke to my broker and he thinks the DLA decision to pay licenses has not yet been totally absorbed by the market.
The general feeling is the PPS will push on and move beyond .25 !!
Certainly with the number of shares traded the feeling is very bullish and as has been said here the charts do look very good.
GLTA
Thanks for your comments everyone and I take what you say on board.
Obviously the $1 million is sales, the company had to employ the staff, pay the overheads, manufacture product etc etc and so the million should be treated as sales. I fully agree that in isolation it will distort Q1 but by the same definition the costs incurred by completing the contract were incurred in probably all of last years quarters distorting those figures too.
GLTA
Why wouldn't the pilot programme count EV surely it is still sales ?
I don't understand AG why you don't think it will be at least $1 mill.
Although I am blonde :) my understanding as I said the other day is that Dr Hayward has negotiated a pay rise based on achieving at least $1 mill in quarterly sales. Then during the CC he announced that they had completed all parts of the pilot programme and upon completion the terms were that $1 mill was payable.
My mistake was that I assumed that figure would be added to last years Q4....... It wasn't :)
I therefore deduce it has to be in this quarters figures. If the good Dr tells us that APDN have complied within that particular quarter I would expect the sales to fall in that particular quarter.
What does everyone else think is my understanding incorrect????
Welcome SPM it is fun though and as you probably know already this site is a gold mine of information. I am frequently impressed with the info uncovered / revealed here.
Lets hope the PPS continues it steady climb and we do test that .30 and I don't think we will be waiting too long :)
Congrats AG this stock is addictive :)
Hope you make a handsome profit, and I don't think you will have to wait too long :)
I agree with you AG that we are all trying to find out more detail.
The $1 million dollar payment only becomes due as I understand it once the project has been completed to the DLA's satisfaction. This CC was the first time APDN confirmed they had satisfied all requirements thus i presume rendering an invoice.
Frankly I would be astounded if last years turnover includes this magic million as they would of been invoicing before the completion of the assignment. Guess the numbers for Q1 will reveal all :)
Afternoon AG
During the CC Dr Hayward did mention the pilot programme payment and he said that APDN had fulfilled every part of the pilot with flying colours. I took this to mean the $1 mill would be in Q1.
Add this to the bonus agreed with Dr Hayward based on sales and it would be logical to expect this payment to show in Q1.
Q1 revenue will therefore be close to break even, i anticipate a much smaller loss and will be somewhere close to the revenue achieved in the last fiscal year. Whilst this quarters turnover will be exceptional based on the one off payment of $1 mill the recent announcement from the DLA shows that significant income streams from the license fee will be forthcoming. As they add the additional business I would expect turnover to significantly improve Q 3 To Q 4.
I genuinely believe the market will react very well if the one off payment is included in Q1 as I expect.
The clue is in the statement by Dr Hayward.... We have fulfilled every part......
GLTA
Excellent news. It's obvious that the DLA will at some point in time expand the mandate. I have always held the view that the DLA have to truly believe that APDN can cope with the additional volumes. I believe the extra money obtained from creda puts them in the position to be able to react quickly to the market needs.
This announcement I agree AG is a massively bold step by the DLA who are putting their money where their mouth is. Like you said this makes it very interesting :)
Hopefully DS when you finally sell this beauty you will have enough money to buy your very own mall :)
I agree that Q4 revenues were very poor AG. I had expected in excess of $1 mill in revenues. I understand your reappraisal. I still think though that sales in excess of $1 mill for the quarter would be viewed very favourably by the market and a PPS of plus .30 is certainly realistic.
For the future though i do accept that APDN will have to show more of their hand in the next 6 to 9 months if the PPS is going to really fly :) come on APDN show us those contracts :)
Yes AG on the 13th Dec you predicted the PPS would fly past .30 based on the October-December revenues.
Funnily enough AG I think your post then was pretty much spot on. If the PPS can run up to .30 with the penny pumpers then a good sales figure, close break even and the PPS will go past .30 in my opinion.
Can't see the PPS staying in the .15-.30 range for long. APDN have a lot of cash to help facilitate a lot of business. But we will see.
Good luck to all
Afternoon AG last month you said that the Q1 figures should push the PPS past .30 but you now think low .20's.
I am intrigued as to your lowering of expectation.
No I'm not disappointed either Johnsyn in the circumstances. AG is right though at some point APDN will have to put some meaningful numbers in front of us which I hasten to add I fully expect them to do.
I believe that the company/crede will give us the pr blitz before the next financials are due and turnover of over $1 million as I expect I think will give many potential investors a real taste of what is to come.
Whilst today's announcement was a business pr our new partner has clearly canvassed their clients and have a definite need hence the partnership.
It seems as though yet more contracts will come from this new pr. The income stream has to be increasing. APDN have money in the bank and the enquiries are flooding in. I think a PPS of .20 is a very good price to buy in at. I think after the next quarter crede will show themselves to be very shrewd investors :)
Sounds very promising Apdn1 :)
Thanks rudolfo remember those days well :) the PPS has shown itself to be relatively stable and the 15-20 million of shares traded daily at upwards of .22 should help to uphold the PPS somewhat. I agree with Johnsyn that we have passed the low teens for good.
Next month the turnover for Q1 will I believe be in excess of $1 million and I hope the market reacts very positively to this news. A few PR's between now and then will hopefully kick start 2013 :)
With this additional cash available there is no reason why APDN cannot grab the market by the scruff of the neck and make some real inroads to all the enquiries it has received.
Good luck to all
Good post EV and well said though personally when APDN are trading at the levels you suggest I think the PPS will be well over a $1...... Getting that level of turnover means a lot of juicy PR's :)
This is my first post this year belated new year wishes to all. I have said before I respect your posts AG and appreciate your comments.
There may well be some truth in some of the things you say. Time will certainly tell :)
The biggest killer of any business is a lack of cash especially in today's economic climate. Our good Dr said the $2 mill last year would be sufficient to ramp up stock to handle contracts and would be enough to protect the company till end of 2013. The additional $5 mill should last a further couple of years at least, quite a position to be in. In truth if APDN are not cash rich in their own right by then then the PPS will reflect that I'm sure.
I like you was very surprised at the poor Q4 figure reported. I spoke to my broker who also owns shares in APDN and he said the PPS would not move much downwards as the % of holders of stock like you and me is actually quite small and the significant holders of stock he has spoken too do not expect significant earnings to be reported till Q2 -Q3 in this fiscal year.
I congratulate your timing regarding your exit and I respect you and others including Tyne man and your decision to exit. Whether we on this board collectively invest or not really has little bearing on the PPS anyway and I would not try to persuade others to do either.
As I said earlier some of your comments may well prove true. My own opinion is that you and I and others outside of APDN know only a little about the true position within the company. It is a fact that the last Q sales were poor, certainly lower than I expected. It is also a fact that Dr Hayward has been awarded a good pay rise based on minimum Q revenues in excess of $ 1 mill which would suggest Q1 revenues of over $1 mill.
The conundrum I face personally is that knowing much more than you and I APDN achieved investment at over .22 PPS. I don't believe our institutional investor would invest millions unless they are confident of a handsome return. Given some of your comments AG if you are rught I could understand the PPS dropping to maybe .18-.19 and hanging around there till Q1 earnings. So given the recent placement crede are clearly very confident the PPS will head north of .25 soon to achieve a reasonable return. And let's be honest a lot of the numbers you state are naturally speculative as we have little from APDN to base expectations on. I just cannot believe APDN would achieve such a big investment if you were right :) time will tell.
I am personally still APDN long and I think that we will start getting a pr blitz soon and I am quite happy to back the confidence that crede have shown and look forward to more contracts and turnover and hopefully the blue sky of profits in the coming year but I wish everyone good luck and thanks for the posts.
Lol good question AG
Very good post wishful your comments are appreciated. I think you said it all....... well done.
Lol glad to hear it wishful. Will be looking forward to your take on the CC. Johnsyn has been saying for a while that the numbers won't affect the PPS that much and look at today. We performed really well given the Dow. Johnsyn was right and I think today shows tremendous support at .20 plus. The only way is up for us now.
The stock is clearly valued highly by many substantial investors and I was surprised at how negatively the CC was viewed. In simple terms the company sold more and lost less. Hardly the worst possible news surely!!
There are still a few of us around who still believe :) really pleased you are one of them wishful.