Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
MBIA's technicals looks bad. It has tanked on a head n shoulders chart pattern, trading below the 50 and 200-day moving averages. It looks like it is trying to bounce off support at about 8. I'd wait until it forms a proper base pattern and breaks out on strong volume. It trades at about the same ratio as Syncora in terms of price to book. Denny had said PREPA is its main PR exposure, and PREPA deal is in flux. He also mentioned that PREPA hearing started yesterday.
Ambac and MBIA have been tanking. Ugly head n shoulders chart pattern for MBIA. Besides an ambc insider buy, I see that a MBIA director bought 2k shares yesterday...
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/814585/000089924317008452/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
Thanks Denny for all the info you posted on twitter in the last couple of days! Think about that SA article... you are a perfect candidate!
More info on those large trading blocks would be interesting, snowball. I was thinking it was a "gentlemen's agreement," but why not do it in dark pools if that were the case...
May as well do these type of trades in dark pools. Not sure why it isn't done that way, but oh well ...
Thanks for the rating change info, Denny!
Was going to buy a little bit more towards the end of trading, but the ask went up just as I had placed the order, so I'll just keep my powder dry for another day.
The credit watch actually dropped a few from last quarter, which is a good thing, right. Not sure anyone even noticed the bogus watch list credits released on Friday, since the stock was up pretty decently early on light to moderate volume. If someone did notice them, obviously would have known they were typos. Perhaps a knowledgeable shareholder contacted Syncora and informed them of the typos. Kind of doubt if it had any bearing on trading, especially with not a lot of volume.
But anyway, picked up a little more today. Been moving a little of my UYG into sycrf. With all the knowledgeable posters here and on twitter, it gives me comfort to make such moves.
This must be the same article from a few weeks ago, since I do not see any others, although it was free at that time. It was a pretty decent article. I would have saved it, if I had know SA was going to start charging for it. Been after Denny to write a SA article.
I remember the Seeking Alpha article from a few weeks ago. Not sure this is the same one or not, since it is a "pay-to-view." If we can get a positive PR, 3-4+ on gap up. It is all ready to pop, but need a catalyst that will bring in the buyers (volume).
Current Book Value?
Thanks Irish and Lincoln for the clarity. That is indeed good news. I unfortunately have owned other cos that had the warning about "going concern" that went the other way and went belly up. It is awesome to have such knowledgeable posters here and on twitter that know the biz so well!
This is in the statement from Dec 31, 2015:
"As a result of multiple substantial remediation transactions and litigation recoveries, management has
concluded that, through December 31, 2016, there is not substantial doubt about the ability of the Company
to continue as a going concern."
Guess you can infer from the latest statement that the co is in strong financial shape, thus "Going Concern" is all that needs to be specified?
This is in the Sept 30 statement:
"Management has concluded that, through September 30, 2017, there is not substantial doubt about the
ability of the Company to continue as a going concern"
Yahoo Finance has a book value of 6.03. Anyone calculate the latest BV?
What does the "Not Applicable" imply?
duplicate message - ihub doesn't allow delete; you can edit but can't delete
Guess the increase in surplus that Denny reported on twitter was about it. What is current book value?
Guess the increase in surplus that Denny reported on twitter was about it. What is current book value?
Need a positive PR to get folks excited. Chart looks good but with the lack of volume, technical analysis is limited IMO.
Anything standout in annuals...? The Guarantee pdf was originally corrupted it appears, but it is fine now.
Macquarie can’t avoid US toll road lawsuit
ANDREW SCURRIADow Jones8:32AM February 16, 2017
A New York judge rejected a Macquarie Capital (USA) bid to toss a lawsuit from bond insurer Syncora Guarantee over $US496 million in soured toll-road debt.
Judge Anil C Singh of the Supreme Court of New York County yesterday refused to dismiss the bulk of Syncora’s lawsuit, which accuses the US advisory arm of Australia’s Macquarie Group (MQG) of providing misleading information around the financial viability of four toll bridges in Alabama and a toll tunnel in Michigan.
Syncora has been covering payments on revenue bonds and interest-rate swaps backed by those tolls since their operator, American Roads, filed for bankruptcy in 2013. By that time, Syncora had already sued Macquarie for allegedly providing bogus traffic projections when the projects were refinanced in 2006.
“Syncora’s complaint adequately alleges that Macquarie’s misrepresentations were a direct and proximate cause of Syncora’s actual losses,” the judge said.
A Macquarie spokesman declined to comment on the ruling.
The collapse of American Roads, which Macquarie formed in 2005 and sold to private investment firm Alinda Capital Partners the following year, was one of a series of soured wagers on US toll roads in the years before the financial crisis.
Investors piled into toll-road deals in the 2000s that often involved state or local governments eager to shift costs and risks to the private sector. Global investment firms like Macquarie and Spain’s Ferrovial assembled many deals with heavy debt loads on the assumption that toll revenue would only increase as Americans drove more miles.
In court filings, Macquarie blamed American Roads’ problems on the housing crisis, rising gasoline prices, the Gulf oil spill and, in the case of the Detroit-Windsor Tunnel, out-migration from the area and a National Hockey League strike. The advisory firm relied on consultants from the Sydney-based Maunsell unit of Aecom, a Los-Angeles professional-services company.
Following the sale to Alinda, American Roads raised $US496 million in bonds in 2006, court records show. Traffic failed to live up to expectations, and the company’s debt continued to grow due to swap agreements meant to protect against interest-rate increases that never occurred.
American Roads’ chapter 11 plan transferred ownership of the company to Syncora, which agreed to forgive the swap debt. Bondholders received no payments under the plan, but the insurance policies were preserved and have been servicing the bonds ever since. Bondholders unsuccessfully objected to their treatment under the plan, arguing that they were left exposed to the chance that Syncora would go insolvent in the future.
A $US198 million tranche of the bonds matures in 2018, according to FactSet. Another $US298 million matures in 2034.
Syncora can’t rescind the policies covering the bonds because it received $US10 million in premium payments after learning of Macquarie’s alleged wrongdoing in 2009, including a $US600,000 instalment four days after filing suit, Judge Singh said. He allowed the insurer’s claims for compensatory damages for fraud and negligent misrepresentation to move forward.
Dow Jones Newswires
Sounds like you have been buying snowball. I've been adding here & there. Like to see more volume, but a PR could easily pump it up. Technicals are looking good... besides the shallow cup w/handle breakout, a Bollinger Bands Squeeze has occurred in last couple of days...
The last Bollinger Bands Squeeze breakout produced a nice gain back on about Dec 12th...
Another pump n dump seeking alpha article...? Since volume has been scant, write a seeking alpha article to get folks excited and generate enough volume to dump shares. I'm not skeptical about Syncora, but am about seeking alpha articles. NOTE volume was up over 400% more than average on Wed.
Hope you are correct. Thanks much for the very informative posts!
As people are dying in the streets, the FDA needs to get off their high-horse when it comes abuse resistant drugs ...
EXCLUSIVE-Canada seeks warnings on prescription painkillers amid rising deaths
Reuters 02:00 AM ET January 23, 2017
Jan 23- As deaths from powerful painkillers continue to rise, Canada is pursuing unprecedented measures to curb their use, including requiring cigarette-style warning stickers on every prescription, Health Minister Jane Philpott told Reuters. Next month Health Canada plans to publish a detailed proposal for the stickers, which Philpott said would warn...
Thanks for the discussion of the NOLs posters. Too bad ihub doesn't have a "thumbs up." Being a software developer, it would be the first thing I'd add.
Snowball just add when you can. Pretty sure you believe the stock will be be trading significantly higher within the next few years.
Tough to do technical analysis on a stock with such scant volume, but recent breakout over 1.90 still looking for volume. If we sit where we currently are for long enough, a new base (base-on-base) may form with a 1.99 breakout pps. Since it would be of the base-on-base nature, stage count would remain at 3.
Would like to see Syncora get to the requisite level to uplist via organic growth opposed to a reverse split. Been my observation that reverse splits in general don't work out well, plus with all Syncora has going for it, getting to the $4 mark (alternative of $3 or $2 if the company meets varying requirements) for Nasdaq should be possible organically with one or two positive PRs. I own another penny stock (eltp), and the CEO on the CCs talks about getting to the $2 level to uplist to Nasdaq.
EXTRA: Almost half of a stock's move is based on its industry group & sector. It has been my observation that this influence is not nearly as prevalent for pink sheet stocks. For example, financials down today such as ago, mbi & ambc and sycrf up (and on about avg volume).
Industry group is an important consideration for algo routines, but for penny stocks not so much so.
AGO nice pop today on strong volume. It continues its breakout from last year very nicely as it retakes the 8-day. MBI pretty decent, too.
Twitter back up :) Trade will be very interesting this week and the next few for Syncora. Without more buyers, the latest stage 3 breakout is precarious as it stands. A positive PR could do wonders!
Syncora should sell it at the high, now...? No one has to tell me about the costs of toll roads: the Pennsylvania turnpike cost be plenty last spring when I visited a friend in Philly for the David Gilmour show at MSG. Anyone else having problems connecting to Twitter?
That's a good reason, Eddie!
For any of you nerds out there, here are the details of Syncora's latest breakout as produced by my algo trading routine...
RISE from prior base is >= 20% (0.58333325) for SYCRF
START DATE is Mon Jul 18 00:00:00 CDT 2016, END DATE is Tue Dec 27 00:00:00 CST 2016, BREAKOUT DATE is Wed Dec 28 00:00:00 CST 2016, start price (high) is 1.9, start price (high, unadjusted) is 1.9, end value (high) is 1.82, end value (high, unadjusted) is 1.82, end close price is 1.81, end close price (unadjusted) is 1.81, breakout price (high) is 1.99, breakout price (high, unadjusted) is 1.99, breakout adjusted close price is 1.9, breakout close price (unadjusted) is 1.9, price % change breakout day is 0.049723778, breakout price volume is 84900, VOLUME % CHANGE breakout day is 0.08826621, 50-day price SMA at time of breakout (adjusted) is 1.3828003, consolidation low is 1.1, consolidation low (unadjusted) is 1.1, consolidation low days is 29, consoliation type is CONSOLIDATION, consolidation days is 114, consolidation depth is 0.4210526, stage is 3, consolidation avg price % is 0.29106352, curve price variation % is 0.79805565, curve distribution is 0.2783088(34);0.24999993(46);0.4319853(34), HANDLE INFO is
Stage is greater than stage max for consolidation breakout: symbol is SYCRF, stage is 3, stage max is 2, pivot price is 1.9, consolidation start date is Mon Jul 18 00:00:00 CDT 2016, breakout date is Wed Dec 28 00:00:00 CST 2016
If anyone is interested in following my ALGO program's exploits, the group is at Automated Algorithmic Stocks Trading Program (AASTP)
Currently working on a Swing Trading routine for AASTP. The backtesting thus far looks quite promising.
If volume kicks in, my algo routine may buy the recent breakout... Just thinking about it, I currently limit the routines to stage 1 & 2 breakouts (recent breakout is stage 3), but that could easily be changed. I ease up on some of the buy criteria, if breakouts are few.
Good info and discussion about NOLs - thanks
Be nice to see Trump change the NOLs laws to make them less restrictive. Considering Trump has used NOLs in the past for his company, this in not beyond the realm of possibility.
Happy New Year posters! May peace be with you in the coming year.
Got this in an email from a good buddy today...
"Should have bought syncora at .2 when u said :(((("
I'm sure we have all had the "would've's, should've's" before. Know I have!
My "should have" when Syncora was in the .20's earlier this year is that I should have bought more!
I feel very fortunate and am thankful for all that I have.
Volume okay but not great for a breakout. Next week and Jan. will be very telling. Stage 1 breakout had 1600% above average volume on day of breakout, and Stage 2 breakout had 1000% above avg volume on day of breakout. Stage 3 breakout (yesterday's) just had about normal volume. That being said, sometimes it takes volume a little while to materialize. Let's see...
Thanks for the pondering and the court cases update! Syncora pulled a Dow today with it hitting the 2 dollar ceiling as the Dow tries to reach its 20k ceiling. Syncora's volume still weak and it's a new tax year next week. Need buyers and a positive PR could do wonders... breakout on big, big volume!
My consolidation trading routine noted the "outer" breakout today. If a geek and interested in the details, see log message below. The base started back on July 18 of this year and broke out today on about average volume, which is not what you want. We need to see volume kick in for this breakout to work. Here's an annotated chart.
Trading routine details: "INFO: CONSOLIDATION FOUND (sycrf): START DATE is Mon Jul 18 00:00:00 CDT 2016, END DATE is Tue Dec 27 00:00:00 CST 2016, BREAKOUT DATE is Wed Dec 28 00:00:00 CST 2016, start price (high) is 1.9, start price (high, unadjusted) is 1.9, end value (high) is 1.82, end value (high, unadjusted) is 1.82, end close price is 1.81, end close price (unadjusted) is 1.81, breakout price (high) is 1.99, breakout price (high, unadjusted) is 1.99, breakout adjusted close price is 1.9, breakout close price (unadjusted) is 1.9, price % change breakout day is 0.049723778, breakout price volume is 84889, VOLUME % CHANGE breakout day is 0.08812521, 50-day price SMA at time of breakout (adjusted) is 1.3828003, consolidation low is 1.1, consolidation low (unadjusted) is 1.1, consolidation low days is 29, consoliation type is CONSOLIDATION, consolidation days is 114, consolidation depth is 0.4210526, stage is 3, consolidation avg price % is 0.29106352, curve price variation % is 0.79805565, curve distribution is 0.2783088(34);0.24999993(46);0.4319853(34), HANDLE INFO is"
Hope you are correct! As I was pondering on the weak volume breakout, I had thought that perhaps it continues to go up on weak volume because no one wants to sell based on the immense value that is locked up in Syncora. But being at the end of the year, and with Syncora up huge for the year, shareholders aren't going to want to sell and pay big capital gains taxes, thus if anyone wants in, they are going to have to pay a premium. Let's see what happens next week and the rest of Jan. My hope is for a big move above the 1.90 level on intense volume, but ... low volume is a concern - need buyers in droves!
From the breakout at 1.50, if the breakout is successful, likely it propels us into the 1.80s before we start consolidating again. Now if the breakout really picks up steam, we could blow passed the old 1.90 high, resulting in a breakout from the "outer" chart pattern.
Not an expert, but based on some of this info, seems they could be used but with limitations. Others on the board have mentioned other workarounds.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=127261767