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Absolutely. As I mentioned before, shorting right at the rock-solid .20 level of support was not a good play with this one. Extremely unlikely you'll be given a chance to break even if you had shorted in the .20-.21 range.
The short-term downtrend was broken, and we're close to breaking the longer-term downtrend that began in Dec '11, too. All we need is a move that takes us above .30 and that one is gone. A very uncomfortable position for shorts.. and, apparently there are quite a few of them. It just means the rips will be even harder in the days to come.
The short-term downtrend I had previously illustrated in my charts is broken for sure (it lasted about 1 1/2 months). looking for .28 to .30 very soon.
Great post, info. "The evidence is clear", for sure.
Agree 1000%.
Cool. I have a Droid, so I haven't been able to try it because their apps are only available on iOS right now.
However, they do have plans for Android (and Facebook), so I imagine they will see very large growth in the near-future given their success on the iPhone. There are actually many more Android phones out there than iPhones (Android has about 60% market share vs 25% for iOS)
Ok, lets set the record straight. There were several times during the end of the regular season and the NFL playoffs that OneUp's Football Connect achieved a #1 rating in the Apple AppStore for Sports games! Yes, it was the most-downloaded sports game in the entire AppStore. OneUp is a much bigger thing than you realize.
Here is a graph:
Yes, it dropped off after the season ended. That's why they also released Baseball Connect and Basketball Connect, so that their apps are used year-round.
Honestly, I am surprised they made it to #1, they have done even better than I expected. Very good news.
Support at .20 is extremely strong, and with each passing day it becomes less likely we will close lower. There is nowhere to go but up, so it's not too likely you'll be able to buy in the low .20s for much longer.. good luck :)
Also, with all due respect, I think you need to do a lot more research into this company. I'd say you're very much in the dark if you're basing your opinion solely off of the sales reported in the last 10-Q. The big picture tells a _much_ different story.
Hey everybody. I have to say, this one looks promising... I spend most of my time in the DROP forum, but I will be taking a closer look at ELTP for sure.
For sure. Another day like this and I believe we will soon test the .275 area.
Nothing too fancy. I own a small graphic design/software development company.
I would consider myself to be very well-educated in several other fields as well. This is probably because my idea of a fun time is a bit different from most people -- on Saturday night it is much more likely you'll find me doing technical analysis than being out on the town..!
Amazing isn't it? I'd imagine that all of us can remember when the only "energy drinks" out there were coffee (and Jolt Cola), but now one company alone is selling hundreds of millions of cans per month...
I am not 100% sure what news came out at the beginning of July in 03' (which is where the big move started), but of course it was related to the success of Monster. Here is an excerpt from their 10-K from 3/31/2003:
"We achieved record sales in 2002. The increase in gross and net sales in 2002 was primarily attributable to sales of our Monster (TM) energy drink, which was introduced in April 2002"
At this point in time, Monster had been on the shelves for a year, and was doing very well, but they were still in the .20s.
From their 5/15/2003 10-Q:
"For the three-months ended March 31, 2003, net sales were $22.1 million, an increase of $3.5 million or 18.8% higher than the $18.6 million net sales for the three-months ended March 31, 2002. The increase in net sales was primarily attributable to sales of our Monster energyTM drink"
Still in the .20s after this, even though the Monster drinks went from being non-existent to generating millions in net sales per quarter in one year.
I don't know exactly why July happened to be the time when it started finally moving rapidly upwards (I wasn't "in the game" back then), but it was already clear for all to see that this company's new product was doing very, very well.
This is yet another example of how patient we all need to be.
Here's another .20 "bog pit" with no volume that I wish I could have been stuck in:
The chart is from 2002 to 2005. Today it trades in the $70s.
Personally, I think the comparison between Fuse and Monster Beverage Corp (previously known as Hansen Natural) is a bit closer to reality than Fuse to Apple, but I do understand where you're coming from with the analogy (and I agree patience is key!)
Of course Hansen was already a fairly well-established producer of soft drinks before their energy drinks came along, but the Monster product is what made the company the massive success it is today.
I think Fuse has a chance to get products out to the marketplace that could have the type of impact that Monster had, but it will take time... and I'm willing to wait for what I see to be a very, very bright future indeed.
Great post, Bays.
I believe that your reason #1 is why we aren't seeing much volume right now. There are still very, very few people who know about this company, and the ones who are interested in investing in it have already loaded the boat.
Sure, lot's of people have seen "FUSE" on Tiger's bag, but how many of them actually looked into what this company does AND are people who invest in start-ups?
Add everything up and it means few sellers at these levels, and not many buyers either, since they're already holding as many shares as they are comfortable with at this point in time.
So, I just wanted to elaborate a bit on the point you made, since some here don't seem to understand this.
It is also nice to see we have another new active member here. I have been following this one since December and am trying to be more active here on this board, but I am a very busy man :)
The more opinions the better, LG! We all appreciate your analysis.
Don't have a lot of time but I'll give you a quick response:
I didn't necessarily mean anything Earth-shattering would happen next month, I was just noting that something was going to give -- either key support failing, or a break in the current short-term trend. The latter would be a nice positive, but I wouldn't expect any sort of large move. The mid-July period I talked about will be more interesting, since we're dealing with a much longer trend potentially coming to an end.
10-6-11 is definitely the day that the line was drawn in the sand at .20 -- well, technically the close was .198 as you had mentioned, but that's close enough to .20 for me. :) We were all the way down to .13 on that day, but thankfully that didn't last.
I agree .25 is one of the key levels, but to me .20 is the big one. I say that mainly because of the fact that it's been hit many times in the last 7 months but has not been broken, even with all of the shorting we've been seeing.
Anyway, I need to get going. Thanks again for your comments, it is always nice to hear someone else's perspective.
Looks like a lot of blood in the streets today.. fortunately none of it is DROP's!
I'd like to give everyone an update on what the charts are telling us (or, more specifically, what I am telling everybody about the charts :)
By the first week of June, one of two things will occur (look at the orange circle on the chart):
1) Support at .20 will fail, and we will likely move quite a bit lower in that case, or...
2) We will break up and out of the short-term downtrend which began on 4/09/12.
If option #2 is where we end up, then it gets more interesting (look at the red circle on the chart). In the following weeks, price action would really begin to get constrained between the .20 support level and the longer-term downtrend we've been in since we came off the 1.25 high on 12/14/11... this will either force us below support, or an end will be brought to this downward trend that began some 6 months ago.
Breaking up and out of that trend does not necessarily mean we go to the moon, but what it does mean is that the risk of moving below .20 would be far lower. At worst, we'd be moving sideways instead of down (which is great)... and with some positive news we could again start testing some important levels -- first .28, and then perhaps we'd eventually get to test the low .40s, which is a key area.
I have said that I don't think a huge move will occur until after we know how EJ does over the next quarter, or we get some nice news regarding the drops... but it is a fact that one of two things will happen by mid-July: either our key support level will be broken, or the downtrend that began on 12/14/2011 will be broken.
You can also see post 16482 for another DROP chart I made.
Anyway, that's my 2 cents... I know some won't take it, even with a large grain of salt, but I hope those of you who want a better understanding of where we're at have enjoyed my analysis.
More insults, thank you very much. At least I can say that it makes me very happy to know that I will always have a strong advantage over you when it comes to investing.
No, I won't, thanks. Actually, I've come to expect the opposite of what you say. I still remember when you were posting about how Fuse had no gameplan whatsoever for EnerJel, which of course was false.
I also noticed you had nothing to say about how I disproved your statement regarding pinks and technical analysis. Even with all of the consistent shorting we've seen, not once did we close below the .20 level of support.
I don't know whos doing it, but I think that shorting right at the strongest level of support is really a boneheaded move, and those people paid the price today.
Thanks, info. I agree that fundamentals typically do not apply here... and in our case, that is a good thing :)
TA is an art as much as it is a science, and of course people can have different interpretations, but it can be extremely helpful if used correctly. There are a million things to look at -- RSI, MACD, support, triangles, etc. In my opinion the trend is the single most important piece of the puzzle, especially in pinks, so that is why my chart focused solely on that one aspect.
I can give countless examples of pinks that have trends that were easily identifiable, and after breaking out of them went in the direction that was predicted -- Look at CCTC, you don't need to know anything about technical analysis to see the trends that have occurred over the last few years!
The swings can definitely be violent down here in pinkieland, but they're still either a part of an existing trend, or are establishing a new trend. In the end, however, it does come down to your belief in the product as to whether you'll hold your shares... and very few pinks have such a promising future.
Impossible to know until we get back into the .60s, I'd say. after clearing that hurdle it's extremely likely we will touch 1.25 again.
Right now let's just look for getting back into the mid .30s, that will at least signal that this downtrend is over, but we could still move sideways from there. We really need to get back into the high .40s or .50s to really get things moving. We've had multiple tops at about .42, and breaking through that would be very bullish (it would also be a higher high where we had been making lower lows). Shooting through the .50s, and the .60s, would be incredibly bullish.
Of course, there are two sides to every coin. If somehow we break below the .20 support level and start closing down there, that would be bad, and my best guess is that a panic-driven selloff would take us down to .10 or single digits.
Would that be justified? I really don't think so, but it does happen -- BTU is a great example of a much larger company with a valuation so low that it simply cannot be justified, but that is what happens when panic sets in.
One thing I'd like to add about my chart is that the charts I use actually have a lot more stuff drawn on them -- but others would find it difficult to read, so I posted a simplified version. In the simplified version some of the shorter term trends would have been more difficult to identify at the time, but they were there.
Even based on this simplified chart, you would have been able to identify the short term trend leading up to 1.25 that I discussed in my last post by the end of November, well in time to take advantage of the knowledge of that trend. The shorter the trend, the harder it is to identify, but I stand by the chart and feel that trends can be identified in pinks the same way they can in large caps.
bgrass, just because you say that no meaningful information can be gained from technical analysis on a pink does not mean it is a fact. As much as you might like to disagree, this is only your opinion and is not a fact.
What you're effectively saying is that it is impossible to identify any trends whatsoever in a pink, whether it be long term or short term, and it is therefore impossible to identify a break in a trend, which would signal a time to buy or a time to sell. And you're wrong on all accounts.
In the chart I posted, we bounced off of the bottom of the long-term uptrend almost 10 times. The time when we finally broke through the bottom has seen us move from the .40s, to .30s and all the way down to .16 briefly... where we recovered to close at support, which is where we have been hovering (and refusing to close below) for weeks. Clearly, the longer term trend did indeed change, and clearly .20 is a level of support.
Now a look at shorter-term trends: After the move up to 1.25, we ended up closing at the top of the trendline that day. In the next few days we did start moving back down, and you would have had many opportunities to sell in the .90s or .80s (or higher, of course), with the idea of adding back in at .65 or so if we held at the bottom of the trend. We did not hold, so selling after the break of that trend would have been better than nothing (~.60, and this is assuming you were in from the start of the move up).
We have not seen .60 since then, so, was that wrong to sell in the .90s to .60s range after a move from .20, especially given where we're at today? Was that a wrong signal? No.
So, we can definitively say that your statement was false.
If you looked back a bit further, you would see that we are right at a key level of support (0.20) which was last visited in Oct 2011. If we hold here and move on up, that would make a nice double bottom.
Attached is a chart -- the dashed pink horizontal line represents the support level I mentioned, while the thin blue lines represent relatively short-term trends. The thick blue lines are longer-term trends.
Looking at this, we can discover that solidly moving into the upper 0.30s would mean we've broken the downward trend we've been in for the last 5 months or so. It wouldn't necessarily mean we're going into the stratosphere, although I am extremely optimistic.. :)
If we go back into the 0.50s then that would signal that we likely off to the races again, and should revisit dollarland.
Of course this is all just my opinion, but I do believe the evidence is pretty solid here. I know some people don't pay much attention to the charts, but they really can tell you an awful lot about where things are likely headed.
For sure, I added to my position again today.
Question: Why buy PCX when you can buy BTU? Unlike the other coals out there (ACI, PCX, ANR), BTU is in great shape financially and geographically (Australia!), and is positioned to make a big run in 2013.
As most of us know, coal is not going anywhere, and its growth in power generation is projected to far outpace oil, nat gas, nuclear, hydro/etc for decades to come. With that said, the vast majority of this growth will come from Asia, and BTU is the one that is poised to take full advantage of this fact, not PCX.
So, tell me, what chance does PCX really have of getting back up to $15-20+ in the near or not-so-near future? Is there something I am missing? The forecasts look dire indeed... As for BTU, I will be very surprised if it doesn't touch $75+ in 2013-2014.
I think it says a lot that PCX was spun off by BTU years ago, since it clearly shows that they are the ones who are ahead of the game.. so why not go with a "best of breed" stock? Right now BTU is the baby that is being thrown out with the bathwater in this recent decimation of coal stocks. If you love coal like I do, I really think BTU is a better play here.
It is truly astonishing how short-sighted you are. Let's all be real here, we won't really know how successful Fuse will be for at least another 6 months-1 year+. If your time horizon is 1 week (which yours appears to be), then, yes, I would be concerned. However, I am looking at this as an investment that I am willing to hold for years in order to reap the big returns.
People need to stop looking at tomorrow when they should be looking months in advance here. Future performance is what this all about. Not tomorrow, not next week, but later on down the road. It is quite easy to see that later this year they could be selling as much EJ in one day as they did during the entire soft launch -- whether it'll be enough to make EJ a success remains to be seen, but at this point I am not sure how the signs could be any more positive.
Stay long and strong. I am definitely waiting to see where we are after the first full quarter of EJ on store shelves (and of course the drops). Who in their right mind would bail out now? Buy high sell low is not the name of the game.
It's quite obvious he doesn't have anything that could have been averaged down yesterday.
It's also obvious that DROP is a much different animal than the other pinks you usually see. The move down to .16 didn't even make me flinch because it is all too clear that we have a rare opportunity here with DROP. The fact that we didn't close below the .20 mark was a big deal, as was today's move. I'll be posting a chart later today that shows where we're at.
The market is not always rational -- panic, frustration, fear and uncertainty can all drive securities to levels that they should never reach. Fortunately, today the market was right, and the future is bright.
Absolutely. I'm surprised PPS isnt moving much yet... guess everybodys still asleep
Wow! That sure will get the word out.. amazing
Completely agree.. it seems people are waiting until the drops are released before they get on board... but what kind of investor wants to wait until AFTER the big news hits to get in? You'll just miss the huge move up. It just makes no sense.
It is very clear that this company has amazing potential, and it completely boggles my mind that people are not piling into this one. Investing is about the future, but strangely enough it seems that too many people are too focused on the present, and are just too short-sighted to see where this company could be in a month or two.
Yes indeed.. we hit .99 right after I called for $1 yesterday.. so I was off a by cent.. but now we are really off to the races! Already 1.05
At this rate we'll be past $1 before all the Tucsonans are up.. lol. But I sure can't complain since I added at .58 :)
Yep, PR coming soon. This is 100% legit -- JUSTNET is funded by the NIJ.
This is just incredible.. I know a lot of us had doubts at one point or another, but congrats to all those who stayed the course, I believe we'll be well-rewarded.
One thing I noticed on the website is that the Bourque plate has a longer warranty than virtually all of the others listed there (6 Year vs 5 Year). So, not only do you get a superior product, but a superior warranty as well. Looks like this one will be very tough to beat.
I think everyone down here in Tucson must still be asleep.. when people wake up I think this board is going to explode..!
Going back to dollarland and beyond is a foregone conclusion now. I am glad I held onto these shares.. been quietly watching this one for a long time. Having patience during all the issues we've seen is now paying off.
Try hitting Ctrl-F and search for "Bourque" after the page has finished loading.
Well.. it's about damn time! I just added to my position.. and yes I can confirm that it is listed there, I don't know why mikeg2 didn't see it.
BTW, this link he posted is the first site that comes up in Google if you search "NIJ compliant products" or anything similar. Yes, NIJ is here. Amazing.
Could not agree more. I have no idea how we never broke back above .45 yet. Fortunately, I am in for the long haul, and I am extremely confident that longs be rewarded well.
Nice to see this one moving, I knew it was only a matter of time. Chart looks very nice. Glad I bought some at .075 and 0.07.
Below is a chart with some trendlines for you all to take a look at. In my experience, simple trendlines can be at least as valuable as any indicator such as MACD/RSI/etc.
So, here is what I gather from it:
1) Yesterday, we broke out of a symmetrical triangle on very good volume (and tremendous volume today -- the highest ever for ALZM).
2) Higher lows (bullish). The low on Feb 7th was higher than that in mid-December.
3) The close was very strong yesterday and today. This obviously shows that people are expecting even higher PPS, or else we should have seen many more profit takers dumping at the close.
4) Todays close is right at the top of a channel I have drawn. So, this says that tomorrow will be pivotal, and will likely determine whether we move sideways or launch into the stratosphere. If we break higher, then it is off to the races. If we can't break through, then I believe we'll be going sideways a bit... although, I am quite sure that sub-penny would be a thing of the past. With so many new investors piling in, my money is on a higher close.
So, what's it all add up to? Confirmation that we are no longer in a downtrend, for one. Renewed interest in this stock for sure.. even though it still seems to be a mystery as to what ignited the move. And while it is still unclear whether or not we'll be moving sideways for now, or to the moon, I am betting on a higher close tomorrow. If that does indeed happen then we'll be looking at significantly higher PPS in the near future.
The only thing I see that isn't bullish is that we're at the top of that channel. I can't count how many times I've seen something hit the top of a channel and bounce back downwards, even when everything seems rosy. However, I think the renewed interest in ALZM shown by the incredible amount of buying (and holding) will be enough to power through the top of the channel, so I am not too worried in this particular case. I will be buying more tomorrow on the dips (I am already holding some .023s and .014s)
Some were calling for .0001s recently.. I think we can say that is officially out the window. If we break through the mid 0.03s tomorrow then my best guess is that we'll see at least 0.06 in the very near future.