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Also, while we know why the stock is dropping, we don't know how far it will drop (i.e. what is the bottom here / when should people buy)
I agree with you (that it is being manipulated), but the problem is the pump already happened. This is the dump phase...
These people bought the shares between .02 to and .13 and just made multiples of their money. That is the reason why it is dropping from what I can tell (nothing bad has happened to the compnay).
The problem is that valuations are based upon profits or expected profits, assuming the company survives and what not.
Nothing at the moment makes this company "safe and stable", given it's financial obligations, and nothing is in terms of revenue is in the near future.
Assuming they stay afloat (which does seem likely) then they should eventually bring some more revenue in, but it is far from breaking even (much less having a positive, grounded valuation)
Wtf mate?
What the heck happened here? I quit looking for like half a week and it lost more than 25% of it's value.
Did something happen? New competitor or just deflation after the pump?!
Disappointing indeed, but it should be fine. I still think they are going to find a way to push out going into the black from this quarter to next.
FOMO really got me though...Oh well.
Instead of 50-100x I'll make 20-40x my money whenever it gets up there(should be most of the way there by year's end for sure)
Really all that is needed is that break even at which point you can even take it from a measley $1M profit per year the EPS = .005 x 40 = where we are now (.2)
To, based on future / projected growth or when they wrap up the year / announce clinics underway, etc. etc. etc., a profit of $7-$10M in profit x a normal factor that they project out is $1.40 to $2 WITHOUT future projections of the additional revenue growth from additional locations and without alternate services/products...
The projected revenue of all of the above could easily cross $100M expected profit x 15 EPS (multiplier comes down since it is projected from $10M to $100M which is a factor of 10 itself and not atypical of biotech stocks) = $7.50 - $11 (that is realistic within 1-2 years of continued expansion and acceptance).
The stock is easily a $1 stock, but almost as easily $4. Some slight difficulty, but mostly just time and normal growth for a year or two and you will see $10 with no problems (or if the multipliers are outrageous cause of the bull market then that could just as easily be $20-$50).
I am really interested to see what management has planned for the future. They already have a venture capitalist on board and have since the days of Centrone Energy. Thus, I think they will very actively find additional revenue streams / services to provide.
Limitless potential for the next 3-5 years :)
~$46k is what they are billing, but they actual payout is ~16k + whatever they decide the copayment is on behalf of the patient (potentially up to 25% with most plans, but probably 20%...hence $3200-$4k + $16k = ~20k)
You know, this could easily be a $10 OTC stock...
$10 x 200M shares = $2B / 40 (multiples of revenue...normal stocks are usually around this in a bull market) = $50M of revenue needed / ~$20,000 per patient in reimbursement = 2500 patients in a year / 260 days (which they might be open on Saturdays in some locations, so this should be the low side of their operational timeframe per year) = ~10 patients per day
They can do up to 3 patients per day at a clinic. Thus, it would only require 3 clinics (although, you can count maybe 8 franchised clinics on the extreme high side as the equivalent of 1 company owned clinic).
Thus, 8 franchises + 2 company owned clinics = more than enough to be equivalent of 10 patients per day.
That really is not a ton...although if we go into a recession that 40 might be as low as 10 (but in a crazy run it might be 1000 so really just go with a typical of 40). However, even then, instead of 10 patients you'd need 40, but could happen on as little as what we have now :P
This really can go any which way, but thankfully all ways are up :)
Sad, but true. Even more sadly is the fact that at .22, it will still be over valued by more than 200% :(
Then again it depends on how you evaluate the "potential". But in actual book value it is barely worth a few cents (that does give some value to the intellectual property).
Yes, at $10 a share it would be a $1B valuation on 100M shares, but I am typically looking at the whole amount of shares that they can utilize (200M, but at minimum 130M...they'll probably dilute once they are past $1). Many stocks trade at 100x their projected revenues. The "beasts" like google and what not have hit 400x and even briefly 1000x if recall correctly. Penny shares quite frequently go 100x revenues with no problems as this isn't built out to it's full potential and in fact are usually just ramping up. If you go look around, the valuation of many micro caps are easily past even the 250x and some get ridiculously high (like biotechs) and in to 1000x as when they get caught up and stabilize they will be $20-$50 stocks. You must keep in mind that the "share price" is NOT a value as it is right this second for only it's current time value, but a certain portion of it is a "premium" based on its expected future value. It typically accounts for future growth. They 1) will open more non-franchise clinics, 2) will hopefully find more uses for their implant technology, 3) are already expanding into opiate addiction treatment, and 4) they are going to be able to negotiate with insurance companies for a higher fee when they are better known and prove beyond the shadow of a doubt that their way will help insurance companies save money in the long run by reducing the # and frequency of relapse.
Also, the jump to a more known exchange does not create extra value so much as help reassure people that their money is relatively safe. Thus, the share price will reflect an even longer projection (some companies have 15+ years built in to their stock price which to me is absurd).
And I actually am accounting for ALL available shares (i.e. 200M).
Plus, you are really really being too kind to penny stock investors and the human psyche / FOMO with "pumps". This stock will cross $1 with no problem. Sustainment of it will depend upon the moves the company makes as well as the total revenues. If for example, they get great results for opiate addiction and find other usages...then they will blow past $1 too.
Similar stocks are typically in the $8-12+ ranges on "real exchanges". You have to look at their total revenue growth over the next few years + all the press + the over valuation for the share price being so low and the high volatility it will have when it crosses the $1-2 range.
So, at no point did you understand where my projections were coming from to even come close to back a statement such as "but no where in your projects are you accounting for the float".
This is penny stock land and many people are momentum traders. When it gets momentum and has the safety of positive revenues with significant projected growth, it will sky rocket :)
Don't worry so much about it!
Quarterly report out soon and they have been right on the verge of churning a net profit (they already have an operational profit). The moment that happens they will be projected out for multiples of their revenue and chances are that will take us past $1, so 5 cents here and there won't really matter.
It isn't going to go to $50, but definitely past $1 and from there whatever 5 cents is should not matter. $20,000 investment now vs. at $.24 will be roughly a $20,000 difference which is not going to make or break anyone's life :P
If you are putting in millions of dollars then fine, but otherwise it isn't enough to do anything.
I keep telling people to not worry about this stuff. As soon as they have a net profit they will get so much attention...
After that $1+ range it will probably be until they can join a better exchange like the nasdaq or something that we'll see significant growth (they might find their way to $5 without the nasdaq, but probably only $3 range). Once on the Nasdaq we might see $8-$10, especially if they continue to diversify into other market sectors. However, that will be years away :)
What announcement is this exactly?
not worried about that, but it still ultimately dilutes what our shares are worth
What did they promise again? 25M shares?
I think this is just a "phase" where they are increasing the ability to make the stock price jump. They are just pushing a bunch of shares back and forth to increase the avg volume which will allow for a bigger buy / push than 20-30k share a day per brokerage lol. Can't do much with that :P
I expect to see this volume for the next few weeks until the quarterly report comes out and then I expect it to fly :)
Aren't they for sure diluting it with the acuisition of the company producing their implants or whatever?
It's probably just people dumping from yesterday, but it will climb again. Slowly, steadily, etc. until they report a profit...at which point it will sky rocket.
I'll probably by some more to average down my over buy yesterday lol. I'm pretty sure we'll cross a dollar this year (hopefully with the next quarterly results in 2 weeks).
There might be people who manipulate it, but ultimately it is a great company with a real product and adding revenue streams, both by adding more clinics and entering into a second product/service line.
However, we did show up in one article this morning from a known pumper.
You should have averaged down once they were sustainable (positive cash flow)!
Even now it wouldn't be the worst...
If you are expecting it to go to .40 at least, then whatever money you put in now will be doubled :)
.31 got hit according to the charts...that is insane! And to think it still would qualify as a good point to buy in
I bought more shares between .24 and .25
I have been trying for days but this stupid illiquid regulation junk keeps bothering me :(
Could've doubled my money already :'(
Oh well. I still think BICX is going to break $1 as soon as they post a net profit. Which, if they keep delaying by acquiring companies, in an attempt to have a vertical monopoly is going to be next year!! Although, if they don't keep delaying then it will be in the next few months at latest :)
Sob raised my avg share price at one brokerage from 2 cents to 5 cents >:|
The bid is higher than the ask lol... .165 vs .159
I'm guessing the pump and dump is over? Yikes...almost 50% of it's peak now. Although, .62 was an incredible run!
Exactly...they do have additional corporate clinics and their initial plan was to keep them all corporate. However, in light of funding issues and as a way to bring in additional revenues without going further into debt, they started licensing to certain areas :)
That costs money + they are trying to create a vertical monopoly. All of which will create expenses or debt of some sort
Let's just hope they have a profit this quarter. I am positive they have the revenues for it, but if they show a significant amount of expenses (for opening new clinics, research, acquiring companies, etc.) then it may hold off another quarter.
No matter what though, we are positive they aren't folding and EVENTUALLY they have to actually show a profit. At which point is going to sky rocket! I honestly think if we posted a strong profit and showed a fair amount of growth + find another revenue stream...it will crack $5 (at least $3).
Otherwise we'll be somewhere between $.50 and $1.50 i think. i.e. we will only triple our money from this point at the least...can't complain about that :)
I really think we'll see it crack $3 in the next year or two. I say year cause I would much rather pay 24% in taxes than 40% :P
I think when we post a profit we will crack $1 and probably be even 200x revenue (unsustainable but great for us if we sell at that point).
Volume is the issue...buying is limited. In fact, it is so incredibly limited that the fees are making a huge difference in your purchase price. Thus, people are not buying :(
Unless something significant happens then I dunno what to tell ya, but the stock price will continue to plummet until such a point that they have a defined value and can join a regular exchange and not be subject to these volume dependent limits.
I can't buy any more cause it is illiquid >:|
Even then I could only buy a really small arse amount!
HALP!
Very seriously...anyone have any suggestions? A better brokerage perhaps?
And why would I change my alias?
Go figure out what it takes for a company to be worth $1 share with almost 600M shares outstanding...the MINIMUM is fine and more than enough to show you that they arne't ready for that type of valuation for a few more years
He probably took a look at their assets, came up with a valuation, and divided it by the total outstanding shares. After that you would have to come up with a valuation of their growth and revenues which actually qualifies as a significant risk in their case and voila. You actually would lower it from the book price...~6 cents book price to about ~3 cents if you account for risks lol...
However, if they get some real revenue streams going and get wider acceptance then you could project on that and assign a much larger value to to the intellectual property than you can right now :) At the moment it has "potential".
But understand that $1 means other companies value this company at $600M lol. Most companies do this based on revenue projects as opposed to trying to determine the potential value of a new technology, but they're losing big amounts of money for the time being
At $.20 it requires a valuation of $120M. Do you have any idea what you are saying or doing? Why are you investing in this company? If you can't answer a few basic questions and do your own due diligence then you are going to wind up losing big (if not on NVLX then wherever you put your funds next cause you will wind up missing something big).
I say Pump n Dump too...granted, I could have sold over $.20 a share, but sold a little north of $.18 instead.
No one is saying the STOCK is bad, but it doesn't have the ability to carry even half of it's value right now (like 1/3 to 1/4 of it...5-10 cents).
When more sales occur, technology gets wide implementation, etc. etc. THEN you will see it sky rocket, but that is like 2-3 years out. Until then learn to recognize the pumps and drop your shares high and buy them again at a lower price (in fact buy more with the gains if you are that confident in it lol).
Let's just hope for a profit...the rest of the stuff I am sure will come, but the single biggest boost to stock price will be if and when they break even / pull a profit!
I'll skip the 2-3% extra and keep the guaranteed large gain ;)
Nuvilex, Inc. (QB) (NVLX)
0.178 ? 0.023 (14.84%)
Volume: 19,132,015 @ 3:25:50 PM ET
Bid
Ask
Day's Range
0.176
0.178
0.162 - 0.1859
Have fun with that!
I'd hardly say I have any remorse in a guaranteed gain ;)
By the time this has any potential to really go sky high ($1-$2) it will have run through so many pump and dumps, from which I will gain 25-75% each time around and still catch 90% of the gains from the major boom (assuming there is one).
You on the other hand will have just made the one time money and will have your money sitting for probably another 2 years before this has the level of activity to push it to those higher levels.
A stable $.22 won't come for at least another year (although you may see it later on this year during one of the pump and dumps...could even see $.25).
Anyways, current share price is under $.18...my guess is this pump and dump is near done (monday will make the 13th day since this "pump" began).
I'll buy in again if it goes under $.12 though
I sold at .18
I do think this is the pump and dump and I don't think it is going to surpass the .22 mark.
In fact, I am pretty sure if you look at the potential for dilution given the almost 600M shares available means you fully expect the company to be able to pull down a profit of $132M at .22 price tag. Even if you do some of the worst revenue projecting for stock buying purposes (100x, 40x is what most large known companies run at) you still need a POSITIVE income of $1.32M and have to see a plan to get it to $132M for it to be worth $.22
Pump and dumps that you are not aware of can make you money too if you just get out without being greedy (i.e. from .12 to .18 you gain 50% vs. hoping it gets to .22 and eeking out an additional 33% while risking the investment altogether).
And lets be honest, while the technologies are nice, there is no certainty that another company will buy and utilize it. If tomorrow something better comes out or a study says it isn't that big of a difference, then the company is essentially in the pooper!
So, while by no means wanting to be a negative individual...have you dealt with insurance companies? The "write off" amounts are going to be huge. I think $16k in total will be reimbursed for every almost $45k billed...i.e. 16/45 * 1.8 = .64M (640k)
What about the other pieces of their attempted vertical monopoly (The companies in charge of those will cost money too is my real concern...)
But hopefully not much of a hit :)
Although, I am debating whether to buy more shares...
Slight bit more by my calculations is where my concern is...$500,000 = 5M shares @ 10 cents per share unless they can get a loan in which case they have then lowered their book value by the equivalent amount until the intellectual property has a greater value + more income comes in - interest on debt payment :(
Additionally, they announced an intent to buy other items to as part of their strategy. i.e. even MORE shares and dilution and/or lowering of book value
So, I have a question that could significantly, and adversely, affect our stock price in the short term...
How are they going to pay for the acquisition? My assumption at the moment is to issue more shares i.e. dilutes value :(
How do you tell they were shorted?
I think the dip is just year end selling and you will see it jump after the first of the year (although with people trying to time their buy-ins it could be mid January).
Anyone know why it is going down so much? ~12% drop
So, what's the new stock symbol? Is it still CEYY? That stays the same despite the name change, right?
The symbol is back from when it was Centrone Energy, right?
And this change in no way affects the stock we own, right?