Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Vuzix used to have a decent following here....
Of course after years and years, and years and years more....so much news about pilots and forward looking expectations of massive growth and profits. Back in 2011 the Rochester Biz Journal quoted the CEO as saying the company expected to achieve break even "soon". 8 years later and soon still hasn't arrived, with 2018 on track to be record setting in terms of losses attributable to common.
So I guess it shouldn't be surprising that there aren't many bulls left, or at least those who are willing to admit it in a public forum.
Wednesday's rally faded....
In my previous post I remarked that a rally seemed inevitable, even the worst companies have their stock prices rally, and Vuzix did get to $5.51 before fading into the close.
We'll see what tomorrow brings, watching this stock is informative in that it proves how little fundamental performance matters imo. I would very much like to see this company survive for the sake of those who've risked money by going long.
But my barometer for success isn't just in pumping up the PPS as happened last Jan when they were diluting to raise $30 million....success to me means profits. Mind you if I was working for Vuzix and pulling in a 6 figure salary I probably would be anxious about the overall direction of the PPS this year as this is how the company historically has raised money, by selling shares.
Sooner than I was thinking....all good
Now we need some financing news, the Third Eye loan has a covenant requiring Resverlogix to have cash of a little over $5 million. According to the MD&A cash on hand was just a little over that number on Oct 31st, then a couple days later they did a raise of about a little more than $10 million USD, with half of that required to go towards paying back the loan.
So they should be getting darn close to that $5 million minimum once again. I'd like to see them raise enough to pay off the remainder of the loan. If it takes 10 million shares at about $2.25 USD to do it, fine. Raise $20 million USD, use $15 million to pay off the remainder of the loan to Third Eye, then there would be about $10 million USD left which I hope would be enough to at least get to the....
Stopping here, I don't think a $20 million USD raise is enough, more like $30 million USD. Enough to pay off the loan with the remainder being sufficient to get to Top-Line results.
Ramble ramble ramble.
Another pounding today....
At some point a rally strikes me as having to be inevitable, even the Enrons and Nortels of the market didn't go straight to nothing, there were some decent rallies on the way down.
If the PPS does drop below $5 that could pose a problem though, that's considered penny stock status by The Street in a lot of cases.
https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/16/12/8760233/the-5-threshold-trading-strategy-explained
I'm just a retail investor
Although I understand the conspiracy theories.
I once invested in a garbage microcap called NCT (Noise Cancelation Technologies) and I figured anyone who didn't see the massive squeeze potential in that stock, that they had to be part of a short selling syndicate....the biz was garbage, never made profits and survived by diluting, and was eventually delisted. The shorts never got squeezed, they made a killing I assume.
Live and learn, good luck.
Not the market reaction I was expecting....
I figured the news put out by the company:
https://ir.vuzix.com/press-releases/detail/1667/vuzix-announces-voluntary-dismissal-of-class-action-lawsuit
I had assumed it would have had a postive effect, instead the stock is down....although its recovered a big after going to $5.30
Then you've been through it all....
It was back in 2010 when revenue was $12+ million, last year in 2017 it was only $5.5 million....and you obviously know all about the ballooning accumulated defict and all the dilution.
As for my blog on Seeking Alpha, it doesn't get a lot of reads, maybe 200 or 300 views per article at most. It's basically a fart in a hurricane, most stock promotional outfits have 10s of thousands of subscribers, that's why money losing microcap companies are so often written up on them. Often conveniently around times of dilution when companies are raising money.
My blog is nothing special, its based on simple data you can find in the SEC filings the company is required to put out.
CETX went after Pearson as well, supposedly....
But then they dropped it, which makes me think Cemtrex was just puffing out its chest to look good, talking the talk but not walking the walk. And the shareholder lawsuit that Pearson't MOX article generated, they settled it for something like 750K.
Cemtrex and Vuzix have a lot in common beyond the AR/VR space, they both did reverse splits, both rely on offerings to sustain operations because neither is profitable, both are heavily promoted by a lot of the same outfits....
I'm sure Vuzix holders are hoping that Vuzix's PPS doesn't follow the same trajectory that CETX has followed since Pearson put out his hit piece on that company, their PPS has gone from $7 before the MOX story in Feb 2017 to less than $1 currently. Pearson's story on Vuzix came out in March of 2018, after the PPS had been pumped up over $11 in January of course.
Here's the article on Cemtrex for those interested:
https://moxreports.com/cetx/
Plaintiffs dismiss lawsuit voluntarily - Settlement maybe?
If you've been following the shareholder lawsuit alleging fraud against Vuzix and certain officers of the company then this will be of interest. Here's a link to the court docket from a legal portal:
https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/25152060/McDonel_v_Vuzix_Corporation_et_al
To read the actual court documents you need to pay, but I think the summary provided gives plenty of info on its own. I'm no lawyer, but this is my take on what's taken place as revealed by the linked docket. Others of course are welcome to chime in.
July 24 seems to be the date everything started with the complaint and a request for summonses to be issued. A day later it seems things were put in motion with a Judge being named and summons being issued etc.
Then a bunch of memorandums seeking to consolidate the classes into one case, which it appears were granted. On October 9th things begin to take shape to my eyes.
The plaintiffs by my read were to have up to 60 days to amend their complaint after the appointment of a lead plaintiff, that's when that clock would start ticking. If an amended complaint was filed then the defendants were to have another 60 days to respond. If the defendants had moved to have the case dismissed then the plaintiffs were to have 45 days to respond.
When I read this docket earlier I thought to myslef, "damn, this could be dragging on for a while". 60 days to amend the initial complaint, another 60 days to respond, then another 45 days if a motion were made to dismiss. Taken to the deadline each time it was looking like 5+ months before the thing even got to the court room.
October 15th, according to the docket, a lead plaintiff was named, one John Catalano. So the clock started counting with the plaintiff having 60 days to file an amended complaint. I don't know if December 14th is exactly 60 days and I'm not going to count it, its close enough to the 11th hour in my books.
This is why I suspect the case may have been settled.
As far as I'm aware the lawyers representing the plaintiffs would only be compensated in the event ot a court order or a settlement, in which case I assume they take a %.
It could be that the lawyers representing the plaintiffs decided there was no use pursuing the case, but if that were true I would assume they would have reached that conclusion months ago.
We'll see how things unfold. I expect there will be news Monday in any case, unless there's a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA) which would be really annoying. To me that would be like reading a suspense novel only to find the last few pages of the book missing and no other copies available.
Looks like you nailed it lucky2505, pumper claims were all wet
I'm following Vuzix and think the same playbook is going to be followed. After Mox targeted Vuzix there was (like here) a shareholder lawsuit, however its just been dismissed "without prejudice" by the plaintiffs. Has me wondering if there's a settlement like here.
An article very much worth reading....
Vuzix is far from the first company with a long history of losses, serial dilution and mounting accumulated deficits to garner a large following.
One might wonder how its possible for a company with Vuzix's horrible history to attract so many followers all over social media. Well this article might help explain it:
http://sharesleuth.com/investigations/2018/03/pretenders-and-ghosts-stealth-promotion-network-exploits-financial-sites-to-tout-stocks
Ultimately stocks trade on supply and demand, fundamental bottom line performance is just one element that can influence decisions to buy and sell. If actual performance dictated share prices then a fraud like CYNK Communications never would have been pumped from 5 cents to $20+....
I'd already noticed myself that a lot of VUZI pumpers were also hyping NBEV, the above linked article gives an explanation as to the reason.
It was when you wrote that....
We've been stuck in this $3 to $3.30 trough for most of Aug/Sep/Oct/Nov and now of course into Dec.
The next DSMB report, if one is coming...it might be a while. The interval between #6 and #7 was 162 days and right now we're at 128. If #8 takes that same amount of time then we're looking at mid January.
Of course if the incidence of MACE is slowing down then I suppose it could be even longer. Like most I would take that as a good indication that Apabetalone is working....if the vast majority of events are happening in the Placebo arm.
But even if the results are getting BETter, I'm still anxious for the results. I'm going to be kayaking, sailing and snorkeling in the Caribbean Sea come January, I'd like to be a lot richer on paper before I leave.
My latest blog post at Seeking Alpha...
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/15663412-joe_retail/5246218-vuzix-following-cemtrexs-lead
Noticing a lot of paralells between VUZI and CETX.
A weird day that's for sure....
Don't know what led to the increased volume and take down, but my gut was saying bear raid so I added some at $2.98 CDN. This is the most volume we've seen since Oct 30th when about 160K traded across all Canadian trading platforms....and there's still lots of time left in the day.
It certainly makes one go "hmmmmmm". If news comes out after the bell or tomorrow, especially if its something positive....then I'll be thinking someone or someones knew.
Conceivably all the way to nothing....
Not pointing that out to bash, just an acknowledgement of reality. Conversely if something happens to make buyers come storming in, there's theoretically no limit to how high it could go.
Link to the article that prompted the lawsuits:
https://moxreports.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/b324-Vuzix-Fraud-Short-version-toned-done-2.pdf
Market seems to be saying "Show us the money"....
Vuzix has been around for 20 years, albeit with 6 different names by my count. In that time they've never achieved net profits, and have racked up an accumulated deficit of over $100 million....if the 4th qtr continues at the same rate as the firs 3 they'll be over $120 million by my reckoning when the 10K comes out in March.
Up to now it seems to me the market has been willing to give the company the benefit of the doubt. I've only been watching this company since Aug/Sept of 2016. In that time I've seen a lot of seemingly big announcements with easily recognizable names.
-Wounded Warrior, Blackberry, SAP, H-E-B, Powershelf, DHL, GoPro, Amazon, Toshiba, Oracle and most recently of course Verizon.
Add on a trophy case full of CES awards and countless partnerships and pilot projects.....just based on this information I don't think a person would be wrong to think Vuzix would have quarterly revenues of at least tens of millions and annual revenues in the hundreds of millions.
Instead, in the MRQ it was a pathetic $1.9 million which was a drop from the 2018 second quarter's $2.6 million. Going backward sequentially quarter over quarter on revenue to the tune of 25% does not inspire confidence.
I could be wrong, but it seems to me the market is looking to see proof now....this Verizon news has done nothing to help the PPS, unlike all the Alexa/Blade hype back in January of this year that saw the PPS go up over $11. Its the old "fool me once" bromide...although with Vuzix and its MC it strikes me that the market is still fooled by forward looking and non-material hype.
I think the only hope now is a buyout, without one I wouldn't be surprised to see Vuzix change its name a 7th time.
Why the obsession?
NinoBrownCMB over on Stocktwits (where my username is growacet) has posted some screen shots of some article he found which seems to imply I'm part of some dark conspiracy that's spreading false and/or misleading information in some short and distort scheme.
Its not true, but I can understand why a person might think that, I do go over the top in commenting on Vuzix.
Its not the first time either, when Ziopharm Pharma got pumped up around $15 in 2014 or so I did the same thing, later it was a company called Sky-Mobil (MOBI was the symbol). Going back more than 10 years ago a company called Adzone Research satisfied my OCD itch.
I also get my ego engaged...and when I see pumpers making bogus claims I'm not shy about going toe to toe with them. Believe it not I enjoy it, even if I don't have any skin in the game. Some people OCD over who the starting QB should be for the NY Jets or other sports related discussion. With me its garbage stocks and claims of grandeur designed to encourage investment in vehicles of dubious and often non-existent value.
People do get hurt by pumpers. I lost a close friend, he played the market hard and went too far...convinced that dark forces were behind some stocks falling, rather than the fact that they were simply garbage.
That's the truth, but I expect some won't accept it....and I get that. Confirmation bias is almost universal....someone who bought Vuzix at $10+ would have to admit that it was overvalued, easier to buy in to a conspiracy theory.
That's not to say short & distort scams aren't out there....but the typical targets are viable and profitable companies from what I've seen, or Pharma companies with a drug that eventually does lead to a buyout, Relyspa comes immediately to mind.
Peace.
$1.9 million in revenue in the MRQ
M100, M300 sales obviously not catching on..Blade hype is now the subject of lawsuits alleging an undisclosed stock promotion used to raise the last $30 million raised via dilution.
Good luck, long history of bullish hype not delivering any value.
Last year there was a webinar with Blackberry
https://ir.vuzix.com/press-releases/detail/1575/vuzix-teams-up-with-blackberry-to-deliver-m300-smart
Obviously didn't help much, still languishing with losses growing faster and revenues can't keep up. The company raised a total of ~42.5 million in Dec/Jan and now that money is running out.
Meanwhile the Apples, Huwaeis, Googles, Magic Leaps, Microsofts and all the rest with billions on their balance sheets are looking to enter the market place where Vuzix has failed so miserably. Hololens reportedly has sold 50,000 units, and their price tag is about $3,000 USD.
I think a 8th DSMB report is possible....
All 7 so far have been 'full steam ahead'....if an 8th does come hopefully its the same.
I think Vuzix is pretty close to survival mode:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/15663412-joe_retail/5234127-can-vuzix-survive
200 dma resistance...
we'll see if it can get back over it this week.
Thoughts on the lawsuit PR'd on Friday
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/15663412-joe_retail/5232092-deal-vuzix-lawsuit-will-affect-pps
Time to break the usual trend?
With this Makalu Fund Management report and the CDN $30 buyout target...maybe its time to leave this pattern of trading down on light volume early in the day.
IMO its the same old problem of liquidity, shareholders are holding tight and buyers are trying to shake free what they can with what I consider the usual fun and games.
Bust the damn and get the PPS moving up to $4 CDN and then $5 and watch out....RVX (and RVXCF while its still unlisted in the states) imo will start attracting a lot of attention.
I think the pattern is being noticed by a few....
And just when a pattern becomes almost dependable, that's when I expect it to change. No_Retreats comment about buying the dip, while taking note of the obvious risks (risk of failure, need for further financing) is a solid point of view....
Average vol on the TSX is just over 100K, and here we are with less than 1/2 an hour to go and volume isn't even half that amount, let's see if the pattern holds and we move back to even or up a bit before the bell.
Not having any impact....
Nice exposure, but volume still incredibly light. Looking over stocks covered by this Roth analyst has me thinking a Naz listing in tandem with a secondary offering is in the cards....with Jefferies underwriting, it seems to be a pattern
New SA blog posting:
Expanding on some things I posted here:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/15663412-joe_retail/5230129-roth-capital-llc-initiates-coverage-resverlogix-10-cdn-price-target-nasdaq-listing-cards
Roth....Rothschild
Wonder if there's any connection....has me wondering if Roth Capital LLC might have some role to play in a possible Naz listing. We all know Resverlogix is going to need to raise some cash to pay off their loan to 3rd Eye as well as to finance future trials in CKD and Fabry's, assuming they don't get bought out first.
In a recent post I remarked on my jaded view on the markets, and that industry players (like Roth) aren't likely to provide exposure to a company unless they have some skin in the game, which I do not believe Roth has at this particular time.
Could this initiation of coverage be a signal that they might be a player down the road? The company announced back on July 31st that Rothschild & Co had been engaged to assist the company in securing a US listing. Might Roth be involved in some way, perhaps underwriting a secondary to coincide with a listing on the Naz?
Something to think about anyway....interestingly the rating is 'moderate buy'. If Roth does get involved in a tangible way like by underwriting an offering, then there seems to be room to upgrade the rating.
Roth analyst initiates with $10 CDN target:
https://www.streetinsider.com/Intl+Ratings/Roth+Capital+Starts+Resverlogix+Corp+%28RVX%3ACN%29+%28RVXCF%29+at+Buy/14750894.html
Is November 8th a date with destiny?
Is the company finally going to make meaningful and signficant progress toward profitability? Not long to wait:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/15663412-joe_retail/5229343-tomorrow-finally-arrive-vuzix-november-8th
$5 is the Rubicon.....
Many institutions are precluded from holding stocks trading under $5, get us higher and its Katie bar the door time potentially imo.
I have a very jaded view of the market....
Why does rvx/rvxcf have a MC of less than $500 million USD when other developing biotechs in much earlier stages see valuations often climbing into the billions?
I'll answer my own question....this is my opinion.
Its because the real players, the investment bankers, MMs, analyst types and other market pros don't have any skin in the game here.
Right now I'll wager dollars to donuts there are development stage biotechs out there where Market Pros DO have some skin in the game. Investment banks that have underwritten offerings. Companies that are issuing secondary offerings and hiring IR promotional outfits to stir up retail interest. MM broker dealers who have been engaged to dispose of shares into the market.
In fairness Resverlogix was doing that before themselves back when they were starting out....when the science was far less advanced and things were far more risky then they are now.
Go back to 2007 when the PPS was pushing $30 CDN on the TSX and the company was getting written up by industry newsletters like Cantech. The market machine was working for Resverlogix back then because the real players had some skin in the game.
Now? Now the sharks that run the show don't. They have other stocks they need to move and a dollar invested in Resverlogix is a dollar not put into an equity that Industry Players need to put into retail hands because that's how they pay their salaries, rents and other expenses.
But none of that will matter if Apabetalone succeeds and becomes a blockbuster worth billions.
All imo of course
I grabbed 1,000 more yesterday....
Filled at $3.18 CDN, jumped after it was pointed out how the Pinkies had jumped huge but the TSX side hadn't....if I'd waited maybe i'd gotten them a bit cheaper but no matter.
I'm hardly looking these days...
Have taken a break from my OCD observations, que sera sera, if BEOonMACE succeeds, I'll be taking a nice holiday for a month or two in order to think things over about where life is going to take me. If BETonMACE fails, I'll take a 2 week holiday and then back to the drawing board.
I don't think there's much "joe retail" buying...
The kind of action we've been seeing suggests to me a high degree of confidence....and with results due inside of 6 months by my reckoning, there's not a lot of runway left before the plane leaves the ground....expecting some real bumpy patches ahead if we're heading for lift off and a high altitude flight.
I like our chances to close around that price....
Call it putting out a marker if you will...for those trading it might be time to take some cash out, the chart is starting to lean decidedly toward overbought. I'm toying with the idea, but the long term potential here has me afraid to let go of any shares unless or until we get around $10 CDN
Given that OS is about 180 million...
Volume of 500K or even 1 or 2 million isn't hugely significant. 500K seems like a lot because typical volumes are so much lower. For me I don't consider volume to be significant unless it hits 5% or more of the OS...so for RVX that'd be somewhere around 9 million in a day.
Still lots of time left in the trading day....
I saw the past month's chart as indicating a possible cup or bowl pattern...which could lead to the formation of a handle as the PPS gets back in and around the highs from earlier in August.
Here's hoping we just keep powering higher....$4+ would be awesome.