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"We have begun planning ahead of schedule in order to be
ready for drilling operations in 2013 and 2014 in Guinea, Cote
d’Ivoire and Gabon."
Tullow annual report page 81.
Question submitted at the conference call:
The next question, what assurances are there that if oil is discovered we will realize maximum value as the stock market price versus an out-of-the-blue action that would be sold off to mortgage value for the retail investor such as a force buy at a low price?
What exactly does this mean? Can someone please clarify in simple words?
Thanks Tbowieknife. I'll make it a side project. For now, I'm concentrated on the CC tomorrow. Very, very anxious...
Does anyone know what the prospect was called where Sabu-1 was drilled? I'm trying to compare the NSAI report, 3-D and probability from that prospect to Sylli-1.
Has anyone looked at the NSAI report? It looks like there is a prospect next to Sylli called Millo. The risk is a little higher (3%) but it seems it has better reservoir quality. Why did they choose Sylli instead of that one?
http://www.eec-newsletter.com/index_htm_files/The%20New%20Saudi%20Arabia.pdf
This newsletter talks about the success of Africa Oil with their Ngamia-1 well which opened up a new basin in Kenya. It also mentions the potential and how much this company should be valued. Oh man, I can't imagine what HDY would be worth if it hit commercial on the Sylli-1. Cmon Ray(mostly Tullow), 1 more swing left!
While everyone is concerned about short term problems, I'm curious about long term prospects. What would HDY be valued at in the event of a commercial discovery lets say of 250 million BOE given the fact that they only have 37% of the concession?(I'm hoping there is a discovery in upwards of a billion).
The way I see it, investing at these prices is like buying a lottery ticket. If Tullow drills and its a commercial discovery, you could see easily your money multiply by 20 times ($10 a share). Or, its a dry hole and you lose everything.
I keep reading this message board and others and I consistently see people emphasizing the mistakes and achievements of Ray. I simply do not care, its in the past and unimportant. They are no longer the operator. The fact that Tullow is willing to spend over a $100 million on a project,and have a significant interest and stake in future expenses (40%) is enough to convince me they know the potential. I'm in this one for the long haul. Thanks for the cheap shares, keep bringing it lower.
Does anyone think its possible Ray was satisfied with one well from Tullow because he believes there will be a favorable outcome from the AGR lawsuit giving them enough cash to drill a second well? Just a thought.
Actually HDY can fund a second well without raising equity if they have a favorable outcome from the lawsuit in which they have $19 million in restricted cash. That's why I believe if they do there will be a large bounce in the share price. Currently have $33 in cash and equivalents +$27 million from Tullow brings them to $60 million. Burn rate of $1miilion a month, and completion of the first well lets say is 16-18months away which would still put them over $40 million without the lawsuit settlement. Theoretically they would have enough for another well right away but they would be dead broke after. That's why this lawsuit is crucial IMO.
I hate to say it but I'm one of those people that bought in at $4 range, but I'm dollar cost averaged down to $1.40. Think we will see that anytime soon with some sort of positive news release? Final signing of the deal, favorable lawsuit outcome, etc..?
Yea I'm royally perplexed as well. From 2004-2008 HDY traded higher than we are now, trading in the $1-$3.50 range. No JVP, Blackrock, 3-D, and a concession that was not derisked. And yet, today we trade below that at a pathetic 63 cents. Makes sense.
Last question. Is the official signing of the Tullow deal with HDY and Guinea already priced in? Cause technically speaking it hasn't happened yet and there is no 100% guarantee it will be signed even though it is highly probable that it will be.
Tullow just acquired a Norwegian company:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/11/tullow-idUSL5E8NB1IJ20121211?feedType=RSS&feedName=privateEquity&rpc=43
Anyone think Tullow would place a bid to take over HDY and have that 77% working interest?
Moreover, as TOB stated there should be a share price increase when drilling nears which we all understand is not anytime soon. However, there maybe a lot of potential catalysts moving forward that can affect the share price. Final signing of the deal in Guinea (should be this month), 3-D data, lawsuit settlement and the delisting problem (can adversely affect), Tullow promoting and speaking about the potential, and general updates such as contracting a rig, choosing a well location, etc... My point is that HDY is not dead money until the spudding of the well. These next 12 months are going to be very exciting.
TOB I must say I have to agree with you. Many people expected more from the farm out process, but HDY has never been in a better position. They got a chunk of cash, free carry on a well and another on a appraisal well. Think about it, $27 million in cash, $77 million for a well (Dana has a 23% carry), and hiring a staff+preparations+contract work etc.. amounts to a give or take $110 million mandatory expense for Tullow. I don't think any company would shell out that kind of money for shitzz and giggles unless they were convinced something was there. This deal will attract new investors because Tullow, the best in the business, will be holding their hand going forward. I've been on both sides of short and long and I think HDY won this time. I hope shorts keep shorting so I can accumulate at these basement prices.
Givin the fact that Ray hasn't thrown a bone lately, will he fail to deliver anything of substance at the CC causing the stock to decline or remain the same? Can't remember the last time we had a press release or CC that made shareholders happy.
This week might be the most significant week in in HDY's history in terms of its stock and news of a JV.
Does anyone know when the institutional holdings report is going to come out?
Clearly Seraglio is another short and doesn't know what hes talking about. The NSAI report says there is the potential of up to 6 billion of unrisked barrels of oil not "significantly smaller volumes." HDY had a LOI for a joint venture before they raised more money from a common offering but apparently HDY didn't like the terms. This discussion should not be if they will find a JV or not because they will. It's a question of how favorable will it be. From my standpoint, the only way they can have a favorable deal is if they have multiple offers and its all speculation right now on how interested the majors are.
When the NSAI report came out with the potential of the oil reserves we all know about, could that estimate have posssibly included residual oil sands that we partly saturated? As in the Sabu-1 well, they found oil but the sands were only 50% saturated with hydrocarbons. Is it a possibility the whole concession is just made up of residual oil? Still a believer though, and averaged around $1.30.
What does that mean? Or does it imply anything?
If there was significant interest in this concession, wouldn't that be priced in by now? I have also noticed HDY has been holding at .85 the last week or so, even when the market is down like today HDY is slightly holding in the green.
What if the 3-D for the deepwater isn't promising? No partner will want to sign and nobody will want the concession. Everyone is waiting for news of promising 3-D and a deal with a JV, just like we they were waiting for news of a commercial discovery. It seems like history is going to repeat itself. No, I am not a basher, I'm averaged in the middle 2's, but pessimistic for the future outlook.
Does anyone think its possible they don't find any commercial oil at all even if they drill several wells with a joint venture operator for the deepwater plays? I think its assumed at that point this company would go bankrupt and be worth nothing.
In the low 7's. Anyone think it will go significantly lower or just lower? trying to establish a solid position
Thanks for the input
Could use some advice. What do you guys think about buying in at $8.50? Will it fall back to the high 5's or low 6s or is it gonna hang around this mark? Trying to initiate a solid long position.
Thanks
Mike
I'm not sure if that information will be available to the public on a day-day basis. What I'm looking forward to is the 3D seismic results. Does anyone know when these are going to be released?
Institutional ownership has increased by about 10%. Aww yea I like what I'm seeing...
I love the fundamentals of QPSA and I think im gonna buy in believing this stock is a bargain right now and is already at the lowest point. Does anyone have a 1 year price target for this stock? And if so, what are you thinking