In terms of Pona sales ramping up right out of the box, would it be fair to expect (assuming the Phase II results continue apace) that we would see rather immediate and widespread adoption for patients who are beginning to fail (or have recently failed) one of the second line drugs?

Also, that the duration of response to Pona means that folks who start it will be taking it for a fairly long time, so the sales #'s should increase pretty steadily, as they're not losing patients.

That may not be a huge market - and clearly the idea is to get the drug to prime second-line status asap. But it should provide some not-insignificant immediate market penetration, yes?

Thanks for any thoughts on this.

- aj

We may well see $10.71 today, if it can get through $10.30. Also, If the markets stay relatively calm this week - everyone seems to be giving the Euros at least some small benefit of the doubt that they're working on something here - I'm guessing we enter that higher trading channel we've been waiting for.

Yah, clearly I should relax. No one outside of Portugal is really all that interested in hearing about what's going on there. New cancer treatments? BORING. We can all just wait until Monday.

There's simply no reason to have to wait 36 hours to get information that was announced at a public event. Is this the biggest deal of my week? No. But I've been to (too many) conferences over the past three or four years, and virtually all of them have some form of in-time public communications set up, even if there are only dozens of people around the world who might be interested in the proceedings. It's SOP. In the case of this conference, I'd put that number at hundreds or thousands, and that includes patients, doctors, and investors.

Ariad might be content to wait until their press release hits on Monday, but there's a lot going on at that conference, and clearly the organizers are several years behind the times. That's all I was saying.

- AJ

Weird, in the age of the interwebs, not to have access to information about a scheduled, newsworthy event, that happened hours ago, anywhere in the world.

Not only no news, but the conference organizers have no one live blogging, or even occasionally posting from their event, which routinely features the announcement of new findings in the field. As far as I can tell, not a single soul is twittering anything about the conference either.

These people need to get out of the lab once in a while, and maybe even hire some actual communications people.

If the market doesn't swoon here, I have to think we rally into the close and end green.

Wow. That's Ariad overlayed with the $USD? Incredible.

Hello all, I'm new to the board and wondering if anyone here follows ACTC, and, if so, what you make of the approval they were granted in Europe to test their stem cell regenerative therapy in degenerative macular disease. Link below.

Stem cell therapy seems incredibly promising, though clearly still speculative. Is ACTC at the leading edge of the curve here, or are they reaching too far here?

Any insights would be appreciated.

Thanks.

- AJ

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?symbol=US:ACTC&feed=BW&date=20110922&id=14297703

I agree with BTH. The macro is as relevant to the stock price - at least in the short term - as anything else at the moment. Perhaps next week's Pona results will decouple us, at least for awhile. But if you're not closely watching the macro in this environment, you're just not paying attention. How would it be possible to have a real conversation about Ariad's PPS prospects outside of the context of what's going on with interest rates, the Euro, and the economy?

I suppose the board could be totally silent on days between Ariad news, but why would that be better? It's one thing to say that constant cheerleading or complaining about every mid-day 10 cent price swing gets tiresome and drives people away, but the current discussion seems entirely relevant, IMO.

Let's hope it was Harvey.

This hiring is a tremendously bullish move.

Coming from running oncology at Merck, you can be certain that Mr. Duvall has an excellent understanding of Ariad's talent, pipeline, and business opportunities.

This is a guy who could likely have gone anywhere in Pharma or Biotech if he was simply looking to leave Merck. Yet he made a lateral move - Senior VP to Senior VP - from a $100 Billion company to a $1 Billion company. You only do that if you are either being pushed out, or if you see real, impossible-to-pass-up opportunity with the new firm.

And given the Ariad-Merck relationship, it's highly unlikely that Berger is unwittingly hiring a guy who was ineffective or unwanted there.

Duvall has CEO written all over him, but it's not like Berger looks ready to step down anytime soon. He's still a young guy. The only reason he's coming to Ariad is that he loves the company, and is willing to bet his career on them. And he's in a pretty good position to know what he's doing here.

Hey Gym, I want to thank you.

I was considering trading out/in mid-week, thinking that we would very likely fill the gap back to $9.25, and also that the market was due to pull back some late this week, which would facilitate that, but I was wavering.

Your chart and comments helped push me over the edge. Traded out of a big chunk of my position at $9.75, and back in this morning at $8.99 (would have been happy with the $9.25, but the market gods cooperated.)

Anyway, it was a pretty damn good trade for someone who doesn't trade in and out a lot. So thanks.

- aj

Analysts aren't pricing in 113, but Crizotinib approval - essentially 113's precursor - sure seems to be helping us today.

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=BW&date=20110829&id=14189356

Actually, it'll be more Pona results, not '113.

It's the international conference on chronic Myeloid Leukemia, Sept. 22-25th, in Portugal.

Now THAT's what you call a macro event.

Actually, it's been easy to keep faith in the stock, but even easier to be terrified of the market. It seems like we're skating along the edge, one piece of unexpected bad news from panic selling.

Soros' recent analysis sounds reasonable, and frightening. It seems optimistic to think that the half-measures being taken in Europe at the moment - the best they can muster under serious political constraints on all sides - will succeed in heading off crisis there. There are serious structural issues around the Euro, and a lack of political will to address them. Add to that the fact that the German economy seems to be screeching to a stand-still. On this side of the pond, the UNited States is politically paralyzed, and our policies being held hostage by a crowd that seems to WANT economic collapse. Together, we have the makings of an even more serious market response. And not to the upside.

For Ariad, the longer-term still looks quite good from here. Next year, the market should see two drugs approved and (hopefully) good results on a potential blockbuster third. There's a reason that healthcare is a defensive play. Even in recession, most people still want their cancer treated.

In the interim, however, we could see the market re-test its 2010 lows, or, if things begin to really come unraveled in Europe over the next few months (or weeks, or days) perhaps even the '08 lows. The world looks like a very unstable place at the moment, which doesn't leave us a lot of room between a sell-off and a full-scale retreat. Obviously, one hopes it doesn't come to that, but one would also be wise to have some cash on hand if it does.

I thought for a minute that this was on par with male enhancement claims, but turns out that Lincoln Lab is part of MIT. Very interesting.

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/antiviral-0810.html

ARIAD is far from immune to a world wide collapse....

Nothing is immune from a worldwide collapse. And if the world ends, nothing will have been a good investment.

But short of actual Armageddon, if the market truly tanks, and we fall back into a deep recession, some stocks will come back, and others won't, and some will come back much more quickly than others.

I'm just saying that if I'm going to be long something when the market falls 30%, I'd rather be long Ariad than most other companies.

Well, that's certainly a bit contra to what I just said about cancer meds being defensive, and perhaps there is a re-thinking of that going on wrt biotechs. With Gleevac going generic, that could be a concern. Though I can't imagine that we're going to simply stop treating people who wind up with the mutations, if Pona is available and, to this point, the only drug that seems to work in those cases. Especially given that the alternative (unlike the options available to many prostate cancer sufferers) is near certain death.

Also, it sounds like 113 is novel enough in its application, and serves a need that is currently poorly addressed, to get prescribed in most circumstances where warranted.

Though I'd defer to the biotech experts here to parse this more thoroughly.

I think that you have to like the stock here. But having said that, I also think that tomorrow could be a black friday type of day. We're still not that far (10% of so) off of the market's April highs, so given the general despair about the global economy, and now that the US has officially signaled that it's moving from stimulus to austerity, I fear that there's a lot of room to the downside.

The good news is that if we do get capitulation tomorrow (or soon), the rebound rally should be very kind to companies with real growth opportunity, that are defensive in nature (even in bad economies, most people get their cancer meds). All of that cash on the sidelines will be looking for the few good growth stories still standing. I think the sector overall will look attractive after a big fall, but good story stocks in particular.

I think that even factoring in a double dip recession, we're already oversold in the mid-9's, so if capitulation brings us much lower than here, we should bounce back fairly quickly.

And with positive, confirmatory data likely on its way in late September, and again in December, I think we do very well from these levels through the end of the year regardless of the overall market.

I actually thought the call this morning went quite well (shows what I know.) No major surprises... they adroitly explained the larger than expected loss - which, as pointed out here, was an accounting issue with no cash impact.

Analyst questions came from an impressive array of firms: Morgan, Jeffires, Lazard, Cowan and Co., BofA-MerrilLynch, Monnes Crespi Hardt, Oppenhaimer, and Leerink Swann. At least two of those were new to Ariad conference calls.

On Rida, HB was very confident in Merck's plans to move ahead - both with filings, and with trials beyond sarcoma.

They should have good (final?) data to report in September in Portugal on the first Pona trial, and, with the second (ALL/Philadelphia) trial nearly fully enrolled, useful preliminary data on that at ASH in December.

On '113: 113 has many potential uses beyond non-small cell lung cancer. egfr is a massive unmet medical need… beyond Lung, ALK is cropping up in certain lymphomas, certain thyroid cancers. I believe that he said that Phase 3 (or confirmatory trial?) will allow them to look in other subsets.

The only disappointment - and I think it's just me, since I don't think this is a change in their own expectations - is that they don't think they're likely to have data ready on the 113 trial by next year's ASCO. But HB said that there were "many" meetings and conferences in the second half of 2012 where they will be able to present data, and said very concretely that they expect to do so.

Given all of that, I have to love the stock here. My only concern is that the broader market may be headed for a 25% freefall.

- AJ

HB reiterated on the call that they have enough cash on hand to get through 4Q 2012.

The biotech index opened straight down and is still falling, off more than 2.5%. Ariad's 300% run-up makes its fall here a bit exaggerated, but otherwise, this would appear to have nothing to do with the stock. There are big sellers of the entire sector this morning.

Unless you're sitting in August calls, or looking for an entry point, (or expecting the bottom to drop out of Biotech, or the market in general) I would say that today's action isn't very concerning.

Thanks for this.

If I'm reading this right, (and I could be missing something) there was very strong volume from around June 6 (the end of ASCO) at $7.91, through June 29th, when the stock closed at $11.86 and finally hit a wall, giving some back the next day.

In addition to ASCO, June featured two major - and very strong - analyst/investor presentations, Jeffries on the 8th, and Ariad's analyst and investor day on the 17th. Each of those presaged a further run-up in the PPS. The volume in July has been less strong, as the PPS has meandered up from the mid-$11's to the $13's.

Would it be wrong to postulate that the action in June, the run-up, and the big volume, was due at least in part to institutional/large investor accumulation on the strength of ASCO and those two presentations? And, if so, wouldn't that likely mean that there would be strong support somewhere above $11?

As I previously mentioned, I've been out of the market for more than 20 years, and I'm much more interested in gaining additional insight - and making money - than in being right in a post on the board. So, if you have an alternative analysis, I'm all ears. Thanks again.

Can't be too concerned today, given that the Ariad chart basically mirrors the Biotech index, which opened significantly lower, and is tanking heading into the close. Given the run-up, this looks pretty normal from my perspective.

Also agree that if there was a negative surprise coming on the 2nd (for Ariad - who the hell knows with the macro) we'd have likely seen dilution already.

There's so much support in the 11's, where a ton of accumulation happened, that I have to believe that anything from here down is a big buying opportunity.

Hello all. I've been lurking on the board for several months, but have never posted.

I have a few observations, so forgive me (or just don't bother reading) if this post is a bit long.

As way of introduction, in another lifetime, (when I was really just a kid) I was a registered stockbroker, before leaving to go back to school. Since then, and until recently, I've worked in the non-profit sector, and have not really been in the market at all.

I'm in it now, with Ariad as my only significant position. I started accumulating in the 5's, and have been averaging up, buying both shares (my position is in the low 000's), and long-term (mostly January '12) in-the-money calls, so as to leverage my limited arsenal.

First I'd like to thank everyone here for sharing your points of view, including several of you who have experience that I could never hope to have, both in the sector and in the sciences. This is a great board, and has added enormous value for me. Congratulations, BTH, and I wish you a terrific summer. I fully expect that we will see you back here in September for the next leg up.

A couple of observations:


1. I really like the technical charts when folks share those (Thanks Illverson), but although I'm a former broker, that was before TA was widely used (mid-80's) or at least I wasn't a disciple at that time. I can discern patterns, and some stuff is obvious, but I'm probably not the only one here who finds the charts most useful when there's a brief explanation of what we're all looking at, and what you think it means. (Other than the fact that we're going to $40 and we're all going to be rich)

2. I share the sentiment here that the stock looks close to fully valued for where we are. Though the trading patterns - the incredible support that immediately seems to build after each new high - tell me that the next bit of news (likely the Rida filing) is likely to drive the stock up one more time before any real correction occurs. Perhaps to the $15-17 range.

3. At some point, probably September, I am looking for a correction down from those levels, at which time I would be looking to add aggressively to my holdings. The period of institutional accumulation that we have just seen tells me that any correction might take us down to $12, or perhaps even test $11, but no further than that. I therefore don't see too much downside from where we are right now.

4. I think that expectations of clinical confirmation of Pona's effectiveness will build heading into the December ASH conference. At that point (either just before, or just after that data is presented) I expect the stock to get into the $17-$20 range.

5. After ASH, I expect that the street will begin to fully digest the reality of this little company being on the way to getting their first two drugs approved, (truly an incredible feat) and eyes will begin to widen as 113's potential begins to exert an almost irresistible gravitational pull from out on the horizon.

6. My intent at that point is to roll over my in-the-money January calls into in-the-money July (or August?) calls, getting as much leverage as I feel comfortable taking, playing the ASCO 2012 angle, expecting that that's where they'll begin to deliver the goods on '113. (I'd be very interested to know if any of you science folks think that next July is a reasonable time frame for the company to have at least preliminary '113 data?)

7. Assuming all else is going well to that point (Rida, Pona/Asia, etc.) I would not be surprised if the stock, heading into ACSO 2012, is trading in the 30's. There will be little reason at that point to doubt that these guys really, really understand how to create effective molecules on the cutting edge of cancer care. By that time, there's likely to be talk from the company of a new compound, perhaps more news on the cell signaling technology with Bellicum, etc. And I think a lot of people will be betting big on Ariad to go 3 for 3 with '113.

I wouldn't even attempt to forecast the future any further out than next July, but I think that what I have outlined here is a reasonable guess at the path forward, and, barring unforeseen developments, I'm basing my strategy around it. I'd be interested in anyone's thoughts.

Thanks again to everyone who contributes here. It's a terrific board.