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Let me post the update, maybe it'll clear things up. I'm still looking at the Nat Gas Charts. The contract roll has happened so not sure why the charts switched at the start of the day and not the end.
Were you watching today at noon time?
OK, I see what you're talking about, let me see what's going on.
yEAH, $2.30 UGAZ does look important
May not be a bad play but I'd appreciate any input you have after I post my update.
So right now we're going to do all of the usual suspects. Please ask questions as we go.
Yes I can but let do them in order. I'll do my best to post both a narrative and chart version.
I don't understand? What are you guys talking about? Is there a different chart that shows Nat Gas bottoming somewhere other than $2.788?
I'll address this one as well, I didn't say it was going to $105 from where it's at. Also I'll give you the dollar and oil being closely tied but I'm not in agreement with the dollar and nat gas being inversely correlated.
I want to talk about this so let me catch up on the posts and I'll come back to it because this is a trade that we may have to bail on depending on how high the first bounce goes. There's some key levels we need to break or we may be heading lower. However the reason I took a position here is even if we do continue lower the bounce should still take us higher than where we're at now for an exit. I WILL BE CLEAR on what needs to happen here since the 4th wave triangle is now invalidated it makes the chart much easier to navigate.
They are different contracts jun and jul but they're adjusted for contract changes. As far as the bottom it was $2.788. So the $2.785 I posted held, so far anyway. Not sure where you got $82 from. Don't know if this answers your question but if not hit my back with a little more detail and we'll try and figure out what it is exactly you're asking.
Any questions about anything?
Long UGAZ at $2.36 and UWTI at $3.25
Long UWTI at $3.25
Anyone in oil?
I'll be calling a high for the dollar before too long. Don't have my exact target yet but it's close. Either we'll get a wave 2 pullback which means we already have a low in place of we'll get a c wave lower which will set a new low before a run to $105. Either way this is without question a 4th wave and we still have a high over $103 to come.
1318 for gold is still a valid target IMO.
GC, A break below 1153 puts a low for this 3 year retrace at 1118 to 1083
GC is at support, and clear positive divergence makes a bounce from here very likely IMO. With that being said until we cross 1214.6 it's impossible for me to call a bottom of this retrace. I say retrace because it's too early for the bottom to be put in IMO. So as long as we're above 1168.4 I'm still looking for a high over 1300. Now a breakdown below 1168 puts the 3 year bottom back in play.
TVIX is finally moving a bit but we need one more high above today's high for this move to become relevant. More of this at 7 as well. I'll take questions first so those of you that care to buy before 8 can have that opportunity.
I also expect the dollar to top and head lower. That is going to affect oil/gold and I'll be posting my latest charts for those as well. I expect to be in for most of the week as I want to try and play as many of these as possible. I should be on for a couple of hours starting around 7PM if you guys have questions.
Guys please don't marry this Nat Gas trade. It may turn into an explosive upside move which I'm very much counting on but that $2.785 number is critical. So I may give it a little room below that but will stop out if it doesn't hold. I'll explain the trade in as much detail as I can while trying to keep it as simple as possible.
Nat Gas- This is the post I made last Friday with an updated chart. See Linkback for original post.
NG/UGAZ
Below 2.964 I'm looking for a fill between $2.892 and $2.836. Can't get any closer than that until I see the trading in the morning. So as you can see I expect a lower low to finish this retrace and as long as $2.785 holds the upside count remains intact. I'm not trying to make this anymore difficult than it has to be because I don't want to intimidate anyone into not making this trade. This next move higher can top anywhere between $3.24 and $4 so I'm not going to start putting out targets that'll come back on me if I'm not here. I'll update the play as often as I can. Right now I'm leaning towards the higher target but if we don't hit the higher of the two grey boxes I do believe we'll still get another low in 2015. So right now IMO the most important thing is the entry. Again this is just my opinion but as long we don't get a sustained break below $2.785 this has the potential to see as high as $4.
You're Welcome, now let's hope the stop holds. I went all in on my first push because it bounced the stop I posted last week. I"ll be posting much more on it this evening.
Long UGAZ at $2.36. I couldn't post my exact entry but I'm long
Yes I do and I'll be posting here in a few minutes. I actually plan on trading the rest of the week so hopefully we can take advantage of the commodities pullback.
SwingTrader@live.com
NG/UGAZ/Nat Gas
On Thursday I posted this chart with my entry zone clearly marked. This is one of those plays where we have a clear "optimal" loading zone with a stop built in not too far below where I'm looking for my first buy. This is going to be my biggest play of the week and if all goes well it may be my biggest play of the month. I want to see how this develops coming off the bottom before I start spitting out exact targets but I will say that this next move higher could reach as far as $4 before we start the pullback that I don't want to be in for. I'm also going to take my time with this play and explain what I'm looking for before it even happens so no one feels the need to panic every time we see it pullback and we will see several before the top. So for now here's the updated chart with the entries I outlined on Thursday. The place we'd like to see hold is $2.836, that would be golden IMO and without question strengthen my bullish outlook. Now remember these are not pinpoint to the penny targets that once broken invalidate my higher targets but a sustained break of $2.785 would have me abandon the play until I can figure out what I want to do given the break of support. However I clearly think it's going hold and we're going to be entering a 3rd wave or I wouldn't be making such a big deal about this particular point on the chart.
Good Afternoon Gentlemen, going to spend a couple of hours doing chart work and thought I'd let you all know I'm online. There's a ton of plays that look good right now but I have to say the ES and SPX look or could look exceptionally bearish depending on how you want to take the chart. So with that I'd be cautious of carry longs once we start the next leg lower. Now please understand what I'm saying here, yes I think a correction is near and yes I think the markets have a bearish tilt but I still can't be sure we have a top yet. We're close to breaking down but we're at support which could mean we bounce and continue higher before we start lower. So wait I'm saying is now is not the time to be wide open looking higher without regard for what could turn into a nightmare for those thinking move lower is out of the question. There's a time to load and hold for higher prices but right now is not that time IMO. More to follow.
FREE came through for me today, LOL.
Hey Wrinkles, thanks for the updates today, very helpful.
Dollar is peaking IMO and should help oil up to the 62-63 range early next week.
Well that won't be today unless it completely folds in the next five mins.
Yes I do Mitch but not before a lot of consolidation that should resolve higher before a final push lower.
Any thoughts on Nat Gas here?