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hgl, the name of the newsletter is the Gold Investment Letter. There are different membership "levels" but I receive the free newsletter. As you can tell from the name, they mainly deal with mining and natural resource stocks but he came across SHPR and liked the story so much that he not only covered it, but also made it his #1 pick for 2014.
Here's a link to sign up for the free newsletter:
http://www.goldinvestmentletter.com/blog/
Also, here is GIL initial write-up on SHPR. Note that in subsequent postings about the company, the author (Eric Muschinski) has stated that he's gone to FL and met with SHPR management, watched the DSOX system in action etc.
"Greetings,
SHPR (Poly Shield Technologies) is my top stock pick for 2014 and it closed today at $1.15. I was hoping to release it at $1 but the stock saw big buying this afternoon. However, it doesn't matter much because the stock can be bought up to $1.25 for long term investors and as you absorb the story below, I'm sure many of you will agree with me that the upside truly is tremendous. If you decide to buy some, you may want to grab half this week and then see if we get a cooling off period after the release of this recommendation.
This situation looks deceiving on the surface because they have a large amount of shares outstanding/high market cap and have yet to book significant revenues when looking back on financials. However, both of these things will be changing in my opinion very soon so keep that in mind as you evaluate the opportunity. Due to these two components, I think we have seen some short selling occurring the past few weeks on SHPR. Well, I bring this up because within the next 45 days I believe we'll see a rocket fueled old fashioned short squeeze! What those shorts don't seem to know is the destiny of the shares outstanding is about to be reduced significantly. In short, the brains behind this technology Rasmus Norling was given an earn in stock package for 154 Million shares when they signed him on. But, these shares will actually expire without being released from escrow on December 31st and I envision him being issued closer to 50MM shares in January from the parent company, now incorporated in the British Virgin Islands.
So, within 30 days the actual shares outstanding will be under 90 million in total. Once there is news to this effect, the shorts will realize they've made a big mistake. If they don't realize it then, they'll realize it in January when we start seeing massive contracts signed with some of the biggest shipping/cruise lines in the world.
Below is a summary and the CEO interview link/attached report from Equities.com head of Research-Francis Gaskins will give you a good introduction to this extraordinary situation. Truly one of the most intriguing business/stock opportunities I've seen and it is still completely under the radar.
Other than the Equities.com research report attached and CEO interview link below...there's really nothing out there...no one knows about this stock yet but that is about to change. There is a very tight float in SHPR and the stock will move on a lot of buying so I encourage everyone to take an accumulation mentality. I do think we hopefully have a couple of weeks to take positions before considerable events begin to surface at the company. This one is just simply going to be huge....I expect we will see initial contracts from some of the big boys by the end of January or so, including several that are potentially hundreds of millions of dollars. Maersk is the 800 pound gorilla in this space and if/when they are signed, the stock could be at $10 in a flash. This is literally the only economic/effective solution available for the shipping industry and they have a gun to their heads to act in the next 12 months before 2015 fines start kicking in.....This will likely be one of the fastest companies ever to go from zero to over $1 Billion in revenues....Maersk alone represents over $4 per share in EARNINGS even with the current share structure. Enough comments, learn about the business and regulation information here:
http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/stocks/industrials/how-poly-shield-technologies-inc-can-save-the-maritime-industry<http://clicks.aweber.com/y/ct/?l=5SeUQ&m=3ivyRuSM_kSBDXB&b=Xaef6VvamzJy1Cvd5.mepw>
If the CEO is even close on this statement:
"With this solution, Poly Shield Technologies Inc. could expect market sales to reach as high as 20 to 25 percent of the maritime emissions compliance market within five years."
We'll be in quite good shape, considering that this is a minimum $50 Billion industry being created due to these new regulations/stiff fines. This would indicate $10 plus billion in sales....incredible. I don't know if they'll do 20-25% of the market, it could end up being less or more, considering at this time, that there really is no other economical/effective solution that exists. If they start to prove this out and sign on the big boys, I think they'll get bought out by a GE or another conglomerate in the shipping sector.
Bigger picture, it's safe to buy up to $1.25-$1.40....I think this one has a shot to go to $10 next year. I'm planning on selling 1/3 around $2.50 and let the rest ride for free....the amount of major cruise lines/shipping industry players with multiple vessels will sign on at an accelerated pace from here on out. It's already happening and their pipeline is growing substantially. They've signed one NYSE billion company in June which is a $40 Million contract. From here, if they get 500 ships for 2014 I think we see $10 but if they hit their goal of 1,000, $20 per share is possible.
As with all OTC stocks there is always risk and there will be volatility in SHPR. So, be prudent in what you buy but this is a very special situation in my opinion and a nice addition to my portfolio outside of mining/resource stocks. I don't think SHPR will have much correlation with the market or certainly not with gold, silver, mining stocks. I wanted to find something outside the box and I'm very confident I found an interesting story for us to follow. More to come on Poly Shield...my top pick for 2014 officially at $1.15. Buyers can pay up to $1.25-even $1.40 but let's see if we can get more on the books around $1.....we are early here in terms of recognizing this situation before many investors.
Lastly, please review the attached as it's only research report I can find for Poly Shield, which has a $3 price target and quality information on the company and regulations/industry.
All the Best,
Eric
Just got this update from the newsletter where I first heard about SHPR and have gotten a substantial amount of my research from, so this clarifies things for me and makes me feel a lot better about the results!!
"SHPR today announced an initial report by DNV:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/poly-shield-technologies-inc-announces-120000185.html
This is a significant benchmark for shareholders as word spreads about DSOX-15 and its effectiveness, confirmed by a credible third party. But, I want to comment on this statement:
"Jans Hagen Andersen Principal Engineer at DNV GL Maritime Advisory stated " The test results we observed in the test facility are a significant indication of the capabilities of the DSOX-15 Fuel Purification Technology to reduce high sulfur marine fuels below the current target of 0.50%."
And the result of .27 because there may be some confusion about how significant this is. Some may say well it is not .1 so what's the deal? Well, we need to understand that as of now, .50 is the benchmark for 95% of the world's regulations for sulfur reduction. This is why Jans called it the "current target" and I can confirm any maritime heads/engineers that see these results are blown away by DSOX-15 capabilities.
Now, make no mistake, .1 is coming and quite soon. .21 was achieved 2 days after the DNV tests and when I met Rasmus in Fort Lauderdale about 6 weeks ago it was at .37. So, seeing these types of results with very few modifications is extraordinary.
The outstanding share structure being reduced by half and DNV confirmation have de-risked SHPR significantly in the past week. Now, we wait for contracts! There are/were 26 companies that scheduled demos surrounding the Miami Shipping Conference that wraps up today. I believe it's very likely we see SHPR trade to new highs in the next 30 days.
The short sellers who dropped us to 70 cents based on erroneous logic could add fuel to a rally soon. My strong opinion is that they will all be forced to cover their short positions sooner or later.....and I think it's sooner. My guesstimate is that there are around 2MM shares short ....if we see covering begin, we could see $2 pretty fast. If not, all we need to see is one big name contract and we're off to the races. I have the utmost confidence that is an imminent event and aggressive investors should be topping off your positions here while the stock is still under $1.20."
For some reason I thought that the sulfur content needed to be reduced to .20% with an ultimate goal of .10% but this quote from the PR has me second-guessing myself now on if the sulfur content needs to be reduced to .20% or .50%...anyone know for sure? The market's reaction isn't saying much either way.
Jans Hagen Andersen Principal Engineer at DNV GL Maritime Advisory stated " The test results we observed in the test facility are a significant indication of the capabilities of the DSOX-15 Fuel Purification Technology to reduce high sulfur marine fuels below the current target of 0.50%."
A good start.
I have to assume that the testing went at least OK or I doubt they really would've even continued to pursue the amendment to Norling's employment contract. Now let's hope we get the results of the independent 3rd party DSOX system tests tomorrow pre-market and that the sulfur content is reduced to at least .20....
Thanks for the info and providing your impressions gdubya. Lets keep our fingers crossed that they release the results either sometime today or early tomorrow morning, and lets also hope that the DSOX system reduced the sulfur content to below .20. Anything short of that and we likely have a problem.
I really would've had no problem with the delay had they just communicated it before the fact like they should've. The fact that they didn't just creates unnecessary uncertainty IMO.
Were you able to get any impression of how the test went in your conversations?
gdubya, the silence from the company regarding the results is deafening. If you're still in contact with management, please deliver the following message to them:
We're halfway through the conference and not only have no results been released but there's been no word from the company as to the cause of the delay. Regardless of the results, it's totally unacceptable and inexcusable for a company to make the direct quote below in a PR and then make no comment to investors when the results aren't released within the timeframe they specifically stated they would be, especially when it comes to something as important as 3rd party validation of the company's ONLY product. If there was a delay, the company had an obligation let investors know and provide a revised timeframe PRIOR TO the results being late. It's like me not showing up for work on Monday and then MAYBE calling a few days later to let them know why and expecting them to be OK with it. SHPR management obviously needs to take "How to Run a Publicly-Traded Company: 101". Unreal.
From the PR released on 02/18/14:
"The results will be made available to the public and the maritime industry prior to the Cruise Shipping Miami Event, March 10-13, 2014."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/poly-shield-technologies-inc-announces-130000762.html
Thanks for the update gdubya. Today is Tuesday and the convention ends Thursday so hopefully it's released early today to give the attendees ample time to review it.
gdubya, looks like the results of the testing won't be announced before the conference unless they announce them Monday pre-market. I guess it's possible that they didn't want to release them on a Friday, especially if they are really good, but if the results are not released Monday morning pre-market, this doesn't bode well for the results IMO.
I hope the company doesn't drop an unexpected bomb on us, like modifications need to be made and additional testing is needed (i.e. the first round of testing didn't result in the sulfur content being low enough so they have to modify or re-engineer the product and re-test it). I really hope that's not the case because I accumulated 10k shares at between .85-.92 recently in anticipation of the results of the testing being announced, the upcoming conventions and the restructuring of Norling's employment agreement. As of now, they're 0 for 3.
Since you're in consistent contact with management, you may want to let them know that none of this inspires confidence in the company. Good test results announced pre-market on Monday would change all that in a hurry though....
I knew it was only a matter of time before Paul Arena really got his fingers in AEYE. This stock and company is officially doomed with this news. Go and look at every single company that Arena has been involved in. Start with GEOS and HIPP (fka Augme Technologies, AUGT. The reason that Augme changed their name is because Arena fouled things up so bad as CEO that they had to shed the stigma of the name.
I can't say enough bad about Paul Arena to be honest with you, and it once again shows that Nate Bradley has absolutely no business running this company because he worked at Augme and watched first-hand as Arena lied to shareholders, lined his pockets at their expense and was responsible for an SEC investigation being launched against the company into false and misleading statements he made to shareholders. Oh yeah, and he also almost bankrupted the company before he left as CEO and put the company in a hole that it still has never been able to dig itself out of.
After seeing Arena take on an expanded role within AEYE was "I hope they reverse split and get this stock listed on the NASDAQ so I can short this pig to zero" because with Arena involved, that's surely where it's going, just like every other company he's ever been involved with. If I owned stock in AEYE, I would run, not walk, away from it as fast as I possibly could. Arena has cost so many people so much money with his lies, arrogance and just general lack of common sense, management skills and disorganization that you'd probably shudder to see the amount. His past performance speaks for itself, so do a little research on the guy and see what you come up with. I have a feeling you won't be very happy at all with what you find....
I definitely have no position in the stock. I can't short a .40 OTC stock lol. There will be heads getting ripped off, but one of them certainly won't be mine. Get ready for the "big flush". It's coming and you know it.
Answer this: is the company almost out of cash? Are they going to need to raise additional capital soon? If so how do they plan to do it? I know it's almost Christmas, but I don't think Santa is going to be leaving any money under the company's Christmas tree this year. Do you find it strange that the hype is on now that they're desperate to raise money? I do.
If you really like the company and believe in it, wait for the upcoming dilution and then buy, don't buy the pump or you'll get left holding the bag.
It's a CONSPIRACY LOL. From what I've heard CMGO wants out of 6 million shares and is willing to take .25 for them. But I bet you know more than they do. Or maybe it's just someone selling into the pump? Could that be?
What is going on here is so obvious, it's amazing that people don't see it. Or maybe they do but their job is to pump the stock. The company is virtually out of money. You all have to know that additional dilution is coming. Depending on how much they need, anyone who owns this stock will likely have their ownership interest diluted significantly if anyone will even buy the offering.
Wonder what Nate Bradley is going to do when he and his family have sold all of their shares of HIPP and used the money to try to keep AEYE afloat but no one will buy any secondaries that they offer. If you think this isn't true, look at the price/volume action on HIPP on Friday vs the price/volume action on AEYE on Friday. Funny the correlation, don't ya think. I'm sure that's just coincidence though. What I can promise you is that it definitely isn't "normal" shareholders of HIPP stock switching from HIPP to AEYE, because they were burned so badly by Arena and Bradley that they'd rather eat glass than own stock in any company that either of them had anything to do with.
Every time anyone hits the buy button when buying AEYE stock, their computer should make the sound of a death rattle and then a toilet flushing....
If Arena is strictly a financial advisor (which is funny for a guy that ran at least one and possibly two companies out of money), wasn't he at the LD Micro Conference with Bradley the other day?
Has anyone looked at the past history of the management of this company? They have a well-documented history of failure in patent monetization, revenue generation and just about every other important metric that any investor who knows anything about the stock market uses to value a company. Nate Bradley continues to involve Paul Arena, who is an absolute cancer, in his business ventures. Frick and Frack (as I like to call them) almost drove Augme Technologies into bankruptcy with their failed patent monetization strategy and lack of a Plan B when the patent moentization failed miserably. Arena literally ran the company out of money to the extent that they had to take personal loans from the Board of Directors and individual shareholders to keep the lights on, at which point Arena was deservedly fired. After Arena was fired, the SEC launched an investigation into Augme due to the false and misleading statements he made to investors while CEO. Prior to Augme, Arena also drove GEOS Communications into the ground and while CEO of Augme, sold some worthless GEOS patents to Augme in a deal that simply lined the pockets of Arena and some of his now-former board member cronies. Prior to GEOS, Arena ran another company into the ground as well. After Arena's long history of failures and NO success, Nate Bradley still chooses to involve him in AEYE. Trust me when I say that Arena is NOT someone you want involved in any company you invest in. He's proven over time to be a toxic cancer to every company he's ever been involved in and the fact that Nate Bradley would involve him in this company given his history of failure, misleading investors etc shows how unfit Bradley is to manage the produce section of your local supermarket much less a publicly-traded company. As a side-note, Nate Bradley was the CTO for Augme Technologies throughout their entire history of failed patent monetization as well.
Here's what I'm predicting: you'll see a quick pump on the stock, probably via a paid penny stock pump n' dump newsletter. Then you'll get a bunch of smoke blown up your butts about how valuable the patents are. You'll get ridiculously overblown revenue guidance that will never even come close to coming to fruition. They'll likely try to dilute at higher prices (if they can find anyone that will even buy an offering) as they clearly need to raise cash, which they've so far been unable to do, other than from Bradley and his friends and family because no astute investor would touch anything that Paul Arena is involved in as he's burned every bridge he's ever crossed. Sooner than later, you'll be left holding a worthless pile of crap. This is the pattern of every company these two have ever been involved in and there's no reason that this one will be any different. All it takes is a little research on Bradley and Arena's histories and it will become clear that you should steer far clear of AEYE.
I have no position in this stock, long or short, however I've seen the destruction that Arena in particular has caused to other companies in the past and don't want to see investors lose money because they fell for his line of crap hook, line and sinker yet again while he and Bradley line their pockets at your expense. If you choose to buy stock in this company, mark this post and consider yourself warned because you WILL lose money.
The volume jumped on this one because it was featured and recommended in the Gold Investment Letter on Dec 3rd. As you can tell by the title of the newsletter, the author of the newsletter usually focuses on gold/silver and other natural resource stocks but the author apparently happened upon this stock and really liked the story. It's free to join and it's not a pump n' dump newsletter by any means. I'm not affiliated with it or the person who writes it other than receiving the newsletter so it doesn't matter to me if you sign up for it or not, but came here to do a little DD on the company and saw someone asking about the volume.
In terms of the SHPR, I'm not sure what I think about it yet. Still in the process of doing some DD. It sounds like a good story but there are a couple of things that bother me about it so I need to look into it further before deciding whether to buy any shares or not.
Couldn't agree more. I can totally understand where you're coming from and feel the same way. A healthy dose of skepticism and critical analysis is always warranted but in this case, it's extremely hard to perform critical analysis of the company. Though I believe that management is in the process of building a strong foundation that will lead to substantial revenue growth and share price appreciation in he future, the company is apparently very limited in what they can say so tangible evidence of the progress the business is making comes only once every three months.
This may be an unfair statement to make given the nature of the business, but I think management is sort of giving themselves a free pass by providing investors nothing in the way of revenue projections and timeframes because there's no yardstick for investors to measure their progress and hold them accountable. How much revenue they anticipate that the business will generate over the next 12 and 24 months based on the current portfolios they own? At a bare minimum, this is information they should be providing to investors. We all understand that revenue will likely be lumpy, but at least give us a general idea. With no revenue projections and no anticipated growth rates, it's impossible to value the company. I think IR is going a great job keeping investors up-to-date on what's going on with the lawsuits, settlements and patent acquisitions given the limited information they're privy to, but ultimately the onus of providing the information that IR disseminates to investors falls on management.
I think the best thing we as shareholders can do is to start looking at PR's from Acacia and other companies in the space to determine what we can reasonably expect management to be able to tell us in terms of projections going forward and ask that they do so. At this point, I don't think anyone other than management really has a clue what the potential total value of the company's current IP portfolio is, so we're basically just investing in management's past success in monetizing patents, hoping they can do it again this time and following those who seem to be smart people who have invested a lot of their own money in MARA stock (i.e. Spangenburg, Feinberg etc).
I think this company and the stock have a very good chance to do well in the future given the past performance of the management team and large investors involved with the company, but without some substantive information/projections from management, I don't know exactly how to value this stock, which is a little unnerving for me since I'm a numbers guy and like to perform my own analysis to come to what I think is a fair valuation for the company now and in the future...
I know Jason Assad on a professional and personal level and have always found him to be a very honest and upstanding guy. I've personally lobbied Ivan Braiker multiple times to bring him back on to do IR for HipCricket (formerly Augme) because IMO it has been sorely lacking since he stopped doing IR/PR for them.
I think MARA is well served by having Jason working for them because from my experience he takes the time to actually learn about not only the company he's working for but also the sector they operate in and takes a personal stake in the companies that he's representing, which tells me that he wouldn't advocate investors getting involved with a company that he wouldn't invest in himself personally. To me that speaks volumes about his character.
I would strongly suggest that anyone who has questions about MARA contact Jason so they can judge his knowledge and professionalism for themselves. I think anyone who takes the time to do that would walk away from that conversation very happy that he's on our team.
Their customer list is awesome. Ford, Nissan, McDonald's, MillerCoors, Chipotle, Kraft, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Kellogg's, Costco and the list goes on and on.
It's funny that you say that AUGT reminds you of LPSN because I said the same thing about a year ago. Like LPSN, they have a robust customer base established already, a 95% retention rate etc and now it's just a matter of that customer base continuing to ramp up their mobile ad/marketing spend to an extent that will have a significant impact on revenues. From what I've heard, it's starting to happen and the deals are coming in fast and furious. I guess we'll see in about three months when we get Q2 revenue and booking #'s....
The bottom line is that if you can be patient, this stock is a no-brainer, and if you have 2-3 years to wait could easily e a 10-15 bagger from hereif they aren't acquired before they can reach their full revenue potential.
Rogue CEO's oftentimes act alone. Caldwell was a finance guy and likely didn't consult with anyone on this deal. I doubt he went to the BOD and said, hey, what do you think about me doing this secret, illegal under the table deal in which cash is then funneled back to the company, and they all said, sure Bill, that sounds like a grand idea. Caldwell did what whatever he needed to do to keep the company alive, it's that simple.
Hi ison. Despite the fact that I have a lot of hope for ACT, I openly acknowledge that trade in and out of the stock. Not regularly, but at what I see to be opportune times because I don't like holding through the whipsaws, I'd rather buy low and sell high when possible, and once the volatility settles down and it seems that most of the financial issues are finally behind the company, I will just maintain a long position at that point.
I know that some people aren't inclined to trade, and many have been holding awhile and are getting increasingly frustrated with the seemingly never-ending negative surprises that keep popping up, so what I'm saying is when the price is as depressed as it is now, there's no reason to sell as long as the science is progressing, which by all accounts it seems to be. Especially when, as we all know, when people sell at the height of their frustration, it's usually a sign that the bottom is either in or close to being in.
Farview, there could be a couple of reasons that they haven't issued a status PR. The first would be that there's simply nothing new to report as maybe they're still working with the SEC on a resolution. The 2nd could be they may be prohibited from commenting on ongoing negotiations with the SEC until a definitive agreement is reached.
As far as the NASDAQ listing is concerned, I'm not sure if they would allow a company to uplist with an SEC action pending against them. I doubt it but I guess stranger things have happened. Either way, I wouldn't think ACT would even want to uplist until this issue is resolved, unless of course they believe the result will be largely irrelevant in the scheme of things.
I think IF (and I say IF because it isn't official despite the fact that Lanza strongly insinuated) all 7 patients injected thus far have seen improvement in visual acuity. That would pretty much make the potential of these injections undeniable, IMO.
The reason for a lot of the downward pressure on the stock (IMO) has been due to the recipients of the "global settlement" selling their shares combined with the long time period between "official" clinical trial updates. Believe me, while I know that a couple of posters here blame the price decline on a certain individual, I just have a hard time believing that there is massive shorting going on on a .07 stock. The risk/reward is clearly hugely favorable to the upside.
I'm not so sure that there's going to be another round of financing. I'm certainly not ruling out the possibility, but I think a partnership come come soon after Phase I of the trials is complete assuming they continue to go well. I'd say that Lanza strongly intimated during his radio interview the other night that all 7 people injected so far have had improved visual acuity.
There's no question that this is a high-risk speculation. It's really not an investment at all. I don't think it matters when ACT has a commercially viable product because if they even get close to the point that the FDA will make a decision on their treatment, people will have already made many, many multiples of their money. plenty of companies achieve good sized market caps long before FDA approval. I'd actually say that anyone who would actually hold anything other than free shares (after they also took a hefty cash profit off the table) through an FDA decision are crazy. People who like the potential of this company should be trading in and out of at least a portion of their positions at opportune times. To anyone who knows anything about t/a and understand the news cycles of this stock, it shouldn't be hard to do fairly successfully.
There is a helluva a lot more negativity here than their is positivity, and most people read these boards to get both the positive and negative viewpoints so I wouldn't deter people from reading both the positives and ngeatives. Everything that I presented as a positive is in fact a positive regardless of what timeframe you're talking about. There are indications that these injections may partially reverse vision loss, and that is at the lowest # of cells that will be injected. I think that's sorta a big deal. Yes, ACT has been moving slow. Some of that may have been due to universities waiting to commit to the resources required to participate in the study until the first few patients were injected and the safety was established. I think that they'll be moving faster going forward given the results that Lanza has stated that they're seeing in all patients injected so far, but either way, I'd rather have them move slow and do it the right way then rush and screw something up. Either way, I plan to continue to make money on this stock by trading in and out until some of the current issues are definitively resolved.
As always, I respect your opinion though I may not necessarily agree with everything you have to say.
Hi ison. Not sure what's hard to understand about it. I said I'm adding to my position. Like any investment, I wouldn't recommend anyone who already has as much invested in the company as they feel comfortable with to follow suit.
I would think that a settlement with the SEC would be material information that would need to be disclosed. If not, we'll know when they get approved for a NASDAQ listing.
I'm personally going to add significantly to my position after doing some more DD. I remain convinced that the SEC thing will not amount to much in the scheme of things. Do your own DD and don't invest more than you can afford to lose. Best of luck!
Cool your jets homie. This is a marathon not a sprint. You are involved in the most cutting-edge biotech out there whose treatments could change the paradigm of how modern medicine is practiced. ACT is covering every base. Making sure all of their "I's" are dotted and their "T's" are crossed as they should. They need to work closely with the FDA so they can prove exactly what the FDA is looking for now, and there's no surprises at the end when they go for FDA approval.
ACT is moving in a methodical manner because they know what they have, They know the funding will be there. They've given a very good indication that they can reverse vision loss in the legally blind for Pete's sake. Feel fortunate to have learned about this company in these early stages. It's going to be a long road, but if you can trade in and out to build a free position or just hang in there if you're not a trader, ACT has the most compelling risk/reward profile of any company on any US exchange IMO. Anyone who can't see this isn't looking hard enough. Everyone who wants to point out all of the potential negatives, listen to Rabin's presentation at the ASM and tell me he comes across as anything less than a guy with supreme confidence who knows he has the medical community by the balls.
Some here are turning a mountain into a molehill on the whole SEC thing. Mark my words: it's not a big deal. Rabin knows he has the goods and he has any funding they need lined up;. The question now is can he wait until the optimal time to utilize it. The question shouldn't be whether or not the company will make it but rather can they hold out long enough to maximize shareholder value. ACT isn't going anywhere unless the science goes bad, so don't be deterred. As a side note, seems like we may know what the next treatment going to the clinic will be. MS anyone? Don't allow yourself to be shaken out. A year or two from now you'll be looking back on what could've been, and there's no worse feeling than that...keep your emotions in check.
What happened to all the gloom and doomer's? That 13% gain today was the equivalent of someone turning on the light and watching the roaches scatter. Not saying the move will be sustained, but it was way oversold and whenever you see as much negativity flowing as there was on this board, it's usually a pretty good buy signal. Hoping for a continued move higher tomorrow...
I bought 100k at an average of .069 a few days ago.
In all honesty, I'd rather see them partner it with a biotech in China now, as that should allow ACT to keep the North American rights, and I think it's pretty obvious that their technology will end up eventually being ripped off in China anyway, so they may as well get what they can while they can, especially at a time when they could use the money...
Michael, I find the most exciting part to be (assuming Rabin was telling the truth) that he could partner with a major biopharma now if he wanted to, but he doesn't want to at this point because he feels that they would have to give up too much future revenue potential. Let's also not forget that Rabin and Lanza hold a significant number of shares and options themselves, so if the company were to go under, the financial hit would be greater to them than to just about anyone else.
I'm going to go back and listen to that SHM webcast again because unfortunately I got interrupted partway through it the both times I tried to listen to it, so I still have not heard the entire thing yet, but from what I did hear, I got the distinct impression from Rabin's tone and confidence that he feels as though ACT is sitting in the catbird seat right now, and I don't think a $3.5 million lawsuit by the SEC is going to change that. That's JMHO.
It seems like we may have some negative group-think going on here which is normal, but I think if people think about what ACT is now and where they are along in the process, that a $3.5 million SEC lawsuit is really not anything to lose sleep over. Even if the total costs end up doubling to $7 million. Rabin will do whatever he needs to to keep this company afloat. He has a lot of other stem cell treatments on the back-burner that he could partner or sell outright, he could get a partner for the current clinical trials either domestically or internationally, there are any number of options that he'll have to come up with whatever funds he needs to.
Who would it be most detrimental to if ACT went under? Clearly Rabin more than anyone based on both the # of shares and options he has, plus the fact that this is where his paycheck comes from. Lanza could go get another job in the blink of an eye, but Rabin I think would have a much harder time finding a comparable position elsewhere. I would say if the guy with the most to lose doesn't seem at all worried, that should allay most of our fears. Yes, the SHM CC was held prior to the announcement of the SEC lawsuit, however, my guess is that if Rabin were able to comment on it he would say that this will likely amount to a very minor bump in the road...
Maybe he's working on a resolution with the SEC and is limited in what he can say. They have addressed other issues such as the "global settlement" issue when they have arisen in the past. The fact that he hasn't said anything further tells me that there's probably a reason.
Farview, that was a great post and I think sums up the feelings of many who have been following ACT for awhile. It was fair and balanced, and certainly understandable, and I understand that you likely feel the need to temper people's hopes and expectations. I've been involved in other stocks in the past in which I've done the exact same thing so I do understand where you're coming from, and your concerns certainly aren't unwarranted.
That being said, I'd like to highlight a few things that I believe have "come and gone" that are ground-breaking events and should not be overlooked or forgotten:
1) There is strong evidence that at the 50,000 cell injection level, we're showing definitive, sustained signs of not only slowing the vision loss associated with both Dry AMD and Stargardt's but sustainably reversing it. I don't think the importance of this can be understated. This is truly groundbreaking, and it should generate enormous excitement. The results that have been witnessed thus far have been significant enough that a major medical journal has reported on this, which is fairly unheard of when a company is in the early stages of clinical trials as ACT is. To me, this speaks volumes about the potential and validates the stories we've all read about stem cells improving visual acuity. This was at the lowest cell injection level that we'll see. Given the results thus far, I don't think it's at all far-fetched to expect an even greater improvement in visual acuity in the next set of patients who receive twice an injection of twice as many cells as the original group did. I think that there's one thing that you have to remember here: this Phase I clinical trial is undergoing massive scrutiny by the DSMB before being allowed to proceed due to the nature of the type of trial we're dealing with. We've now been approved for the second cohort of Phase I meaning that there have been NO signs of adverse reactions in the patients injected with 50k cells. Further, efficacy far beyond what we could've even hoped for in the preliminary stages of a Phase I trial are already not only being proven but have also been sustained. I'll leave it to your imagination what may happen with the 2nd cohort who will be injected with 100k (or twice the number of cells) as the patients in Phase I were. I guess what I'm saying here is that this is not your "normal" clinical trial. Everyone assumes it's going to go through the traditional 3 clinical trials blah blah blah. I don't think this is the case. I think that ACT is going to be able to prove enough by the end of a Phase II trial that they're going to be going in front of the FDA once Phase II is completed. I also think that they're going to have a deep-pocketed partner on board within the next 12 months. There is going to be an inflection point in these clinical trials when the results become apparent and undeniable. In many clinical trials, you see that 40% of clinical trial patients saw a positive response, but what happens when ACT doses 40 people here and in Europe and 100% see an extremely positive reaction, not only in the baseline of proving safety but also in slowing the progression of and reversing the effects of Dry AMD/Stargardt's? I believe this is what we're going to see, and it's going to be so undeniable that things may change in a way that people still thinking inside the box may find unimaginable. I think there is a reason that ACT isn't partnering it out and seems generally blissfully uncaring about the short-term BS, and that's because they already know what they're sitting on.
It's so easy to get caught up in the small details but look at the bigger picture of what we may be sitting on here folks. Take a good, hard look. This is game-changing. This has so far, at the lowest dosage level restored some eyesight to those who couldn't see previous to their participation in this trial. The SEC thing is going to amount to next to nothing in the larger scheme of things. Go back and do a good analysis of what you currently own and why. You own:
a) the only company that is currently in clinical trials with embryonic stem cells
b) the only company that has patented technology to produce embryonic stem cells without harming the embryo
c) a company whose preliminary Phase I results were so impressive that they were reported by a major medical journal based on the promise they hold and the results they've produced to date, which is nearly unheard for a company in such an early phase on a clinical trial
c) a company that has thus far proven not only safety but sustainable efficacy at the lowest dosage level
D) a company that has the most respected, reputable opthalmic institutions clamoring to get in on these trials
d) a company that has been unanimously approved by the DSMB to move to the next cohort of their trials which will inject twice the number of cells into a patient population that has already seen large gains in visual acuity at the minimum dosage level
There are so many positives here folks, yes, there may be some short-term setbacks but the potential of what we're staring in the face is something that has a very good chance to revolutionalize medicine as we know it. To buy a piece of this potential currently costs less than .07/share, yet some would like to talk you out of making such an investment. I strongly urge you to do your DD. No, things aren't perfect. The company has a lot of past baggage as a result of the former CEO just trying to keep the company alive. But we're now at a point in the company's history where the past sins are easily rectifiable. I'd urge you to do your DD. If you're discouraged, think about why you invested here in the first place and how far the science has come. You're invested in a groundbreaking company that will only fail if the science fails. Think about that before you make any rash decisions on selling out on what may well be a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity. When investing in a technology such as this, it never comes easy. There will always be pitfalls along the way. Its the nature of the business, but as long as the pitfalls aren't science-related, you should feel secure in your investment as a long-term shareholder, IMO. .
Farview, why are you attempting to refute anyone who is choosing to look at this situation and think it's not as bad as you're may think it is? Everyone understands your opinion: you're not optimistic, you're frustrated (I don't blame you and others for being frustrated btw) and disappointed that yet another unforeseen issue has arisen, but by going out of your way to tell anyone who has an opinion different than your own that basically they don't know what they're talking about is divisive and not all that productive. I'm sure we all understand and hear your opinion loud and clear. Stating the same thing over and over again isn't going to change the situation or the outcome. It's going to be what it is. Further, talking down your own investment is not a wise thing to do. I know I for one would appreciate it if you could spare us from the constant negativity.
Farview, after reading your posts for awhile before and then coming back and seeing you do very little other than complain whenever things aren't going well, I'm not sure why you still own the stock. If I owned stock in a company that I was as disillusioned with as you appear to be with ACT, I'd sell and move on to a new stock. You seem to think that regardless of the company's potential there is a very good chance that they won't make it, so unless you enjoy having your money invested in a company that you believe is likely doomed for failure one way or another, I'd suggest you think about selling and moving on, at least until the situation changes enough that you feel comfortable getting back in. That's what I did between .14-.16 when I was confident the stock was going to see a large decline when the dilution from the "global settlement" hit. Holding on to what you think is a loser is a fool's game, and I think it would be really hard for anyone to argue otherwise.
I agree with what you said on this, I guess my question is if in the scheme of things (let's use fordwill's # of $5 million) will $5 million make that much of a difference? Especially if they're able to recoup the money from the Caldwell Estate?
If it can be proven that Caldwell did this (which I believe he did) and since it seems that the SEC has already said that the employment contract he had with ACT which basically indemnified him for any shady activities he may have engaged in was unenforceable, the Caldwell Estate may not even spend a lot of money fighting it and may just cough up the money instead of losing further money trying to defend an action that they're very likely to lose. Who knows, maybe ACT can't even legally go after them, but it seems that they alluded to the fact that they could and would. Guess we'll just have to keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best...
If shareholders didn't file lawsuits against ACT for the whole "global settlement" deal, I doubt they will now. I do believe that most of these costs are going to have to be paid up-front by ACT but that they'll be able to recoup them from the Caldwell estate. One question that popped into my head last night is whether or not these charges somehow give direct legitimacy to the Aronson lawsuit. That I would consider a problem. I looked at the Aronson lawsuit in-depth awhile ago and didn't think there was much to worry about on the surface, but obviously depending on the dates that we're dealing with, this could present a larger problem. I'd have to go back and look again to see, but for some reason I think this occurred after the date that Aronson alleged ACT screwed him over. If this is a standalone problem that doesn't have some sort of waterfall effect, I don't think this SEC thing in and of itself is really that big of a deal, other than some reputational damage (which, given all that has gone on over the past year, it's not like they have much of a reputation left to ruin at this point anyway). If I'm Rabin and it's something I'm really that concerned will severely impact the future operations of the company, I'm trying to drag it out for as long as I can and hope that I can keep it tied up until after the Phase I clinical trial is done and I'm in a better position to secure a more lucrative partnership deal, then use some of the up-front money received to pay whatever is owed.
Back in a full position at .069. The SEC thing will be a non-issue IMO. Reading between the lines, it seems that ACT will have to settle the matter with the SEC themselves, but will then be able to go back and try to recover from the Caldwell Estate at least a portion of the monies that they end up having to pay to the SEC, since the employment contract they had with him basically holding him harmless was found to be unenforceable by the SEC (if I'm understanding it correctly).
I do believe that a NASDAQ listing will have to wait until the issues with the SEC are cleared up, but I think Rabin will take care of it pretty quickly.
In regard to potential partners shying away from partnering with ACT due to their legal issues, I don't think this is the case. They care about the future revenue potential, not some piddly SEC issue that I believe will cost very little to resolve. Rabin said during the webcast from the ASM that they could partner with a major biopharma now if they wanted to but they'd need to give up too much in future revenues and that they have sufficient funding to continue with their near-term clinical trials. Assuming that the treatment continues to prove to be ground-breaking and successful as it has thus far, it will only become more valuable as time goes on and Rabin seems content to go it alone for now. As a side note, Rabin didn't sound like a guy who was concerned about much of anything during that CC and certainly didn't sound desperate to make a deal. It seems to me that they're going to continue to move forward on their own terms, and I believe that when the reverse split does ultimately happen, there will be institutional investors who will be willing to buy ACT stock and provide the necessary funding for them to continue moving forward with the clinical trials on their own until they think the time is right to partner.
I believe that the recent sell-off is overdone and was unwarranted because people freaked out when they saw the SEC news, and given all of their past transgressions, that may have been the final straw for some retail investors. Though I can certainly understand why people are frustrated because it seems like it's always something, I find many times knee-jerk reactions like this provide good opportunities to initiate or add to a position. From a technical perspective, the stock needs to hold that .065 level or that gap between .04 and .065 from Nov 2010 will likely be filled. I don't know if it will hold or not. If not, I'll probably sell and wait for the gap to fill and buy back in. The level I bought in at is a low-risk entry point strictly based on the technicals (assuming they don't come out and report problems with the clinical trial pre-market in the near future). I guess we'll see how this plays out in the short-term, but in the long-term, the scientific story continues to get stronger. As one poster here pointed out, many biotech companies with promising technologies have have gone under or sold out cheaply, but my response is that this isn't just "any" biotech company and this isn't just "any" technology, and as long as the positive trend in the clinical trial results continue, the share price will take care of itself eventually. GLTA!
Assuming the article is accurate, ACTC isn't going to PR it unless/until the medical journal reviewing the prelim results in published. They've said they're not announcing results until the findings are published many times already. Not to say that the article won't cause a spike in the share price, but a lot of the speculation has been that they would say that there would be an improvement in visual acuity. I would think most already assumed that engraftment (at a minimum) occurred.
Also, if the article is accurate and I'm ACTC management, I'd be looking into who leaked the results as well. Loose lips sink ships.
Looks like the tecnicals worked pretty well this time. Now if it goes back to 50 DMA I'll start slowly re-loading. On some pennies ignoring the technicals makes sense because they trade very low volumes. On a stock like ACTC that trades such a large volume of shares, normal t/a usually applies.