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If your going to scalp (for a buck or 2) DGAZ 23 to 24 would be a nice entry. However, NG could hit 30 very easily with 2 large bullish reports coming our way. If your intent is to hold 2 months out into injection season. May need to be more selective. NG 3.30 = DGAZ 17.70.....
NG 3.30 = DGAZ 17.70
NG 3.20 = DGAZ 20.50
NG 3.10 = DGAZ 23.30
GLTA
Im pretty comfortable with my D 28 average...Have plenty of dry powder to lower it...
My one concern is that NG has a propensity to behave exuberant. So timing my D entry is important now that I have a starter at 28. Hate to buy the 22/23 and see DGAZ at 18....
GLTU
Nothing would please me more than to start 2018 with a bag full of DGAZ at 20/23...Utopia if you ask me....EZ 40/45 possibly 55!
Don't know if you remember but WZ and I doubled with DGAZ into march last year..Little choppy but nice profit....
Green trades to ya!
I have never, ever seen a .61 cent spike in NG spot price...I've seen .19/15 etc...
In The later cases I've seen spot price jump significantly then the next trading day NG trade lower and the spot would readjust downward that evening.
On the other hand I've seen a constant elevated spot price start moving front month toward the spot price.
So the answer is it could go both ways...
Remember the spot price is used for pricing of immediate delivery of commodity.
U/D are currently following the Feb Contract(For March 1 Delivery). Note NG does not trade on current temps or temps for following 2 or 5 days. NG is always forward looking at 10 to 30 days out. Thus why the 16 to 20 day ensemble is preferred and so popular with NG traders.
So the question is, did traders properly value NG with last week price appreciation. Or, is there more upside appreciation due to re-valuation?
Maybe one of the posters that trade futures can answer this question.
Jan Futures expired on the Wed Dec 27. However according to my TOS options futures layout. January futures were trading on Friday Dec 29.
Im taking a wild stab in the dark trying to explain this (still researching)
So, if a buyer on Thursday Dec 28th and wanted to buy NG for immediate delivery That buyer would need to use the spot price since January futures are allegedly expired. But we are still in January! All contracts carry a 3 day review process thus putting immediate delivery on Jan 4th...Dont know, thinking out loud here and was wondering if this had anything to with spot price appreciation. Other than the obvious cold weather.
Anyway back to next weeks price action.
Scenario A (most likely gap up) We gap up to 3.02 end day 3.05 At this point Daily is OB. Could be OB all the way to 3.10/3.15.
Scenario B We gap down to 2.86/2.88 if a selling frenzy is created 2.80. Then we bounce into report back to 3.0sh..
Note that the HDD ensembles although GFS are starting to turn red:
Hoping you have a green trade Acrazjo. GLTU
P.S.
DGAZ is a double into March!
Happy New Year to ALL - Be safe out there!
I think NG pricing is capped moving forward...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2017/12/27/in-bad-trade-off-new-england-forsakes-natural-gas-for-petroleum/#75a47ee62bfa
New England has been at the forefront of converting its fossil fuel power plants to use cleaner burning natural gas. In fact, the region’s electricity generation is over 50% reliant on natural gas. In addition, many New Englanders have gas lines in their homes and use natural gas for heating and cooking.
However, natural gas prices in New England are also the most expensive in the nation, because state and local governments have fought to keep out the pipelines needed to transport it into and around the region. Natural gas prices across the United States dropped with the advent of fracking, and it would be easy and cheap to supply New England with natural gas from the nearby Marcellus shale region. Several companies have tried to build pipelines to bring this gas to New England, but they were stymied by hostile local governments and ultimately by a 2016 ruling from the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts that forbade utility companies from entering into long term natural gas deals with the intent of passing on charges to customers. After the legal case was decided in Massachusetts, Kinder Morgan KMI -1.31% withdrew plans for a new pipeline.
Now, a polar vortex has hit the northeast and frigid temperatures are causing demand for natural gas to skyrocket . Natural gas prices in New England tripled in just one day and are currently some of the highest in the nation. Now New England has turned to petroleum, a source of great pollution and even greater expense, for electricity generation. Over the course of one day, December 27, 2017, petroleum use grew from less than 500MW to nearly 4,000MW. Petroleum accounted for 22% of the electricity generation, just behind nuclear at 35% and natural gas at 24%.
Ironically, a region known for its protests against fossil fuels now has an
Nice stay nimble...I pick up more at 27/27.05...
NG is either going to 3.05 or back down to 2.78/2.80 today..Maybe both ha~!
GLTA
Good observation. That's exactly what I think is going to happen...NG going to 2.20 in February! Although I think she will bounce between 2.50/2.80 another time....
Nice job....
GLTU
Thanks Sendme.
I loaded some 32 and 28 today...I may sell them tomorrow or Tuesday if I get 32/34...Thinking NG will hit 3.05 retrace then hit it again next wed or Thursday...Trying to build my DGAZ bag for what is going to be a nice profitable run to 40/50.....in the next 2 months!
GLTA
This is just me.. Everyone does what they deem appropriate with there money.
If I was holding UGAZ I would sell tomorrows high. Likelihood of UGAZ going up tomorrow are very good. However I would not hold over the weekend since all charts including daily will be OB..If you like pain and wish to stay long then buy after the UGAZ drop Monday/Tuesday morning and hold for a pop into report...
GLTA
congrats, watch out for a reversal after report. They could take NG down then pop it Monday on continued cold wx..
GLTU
From a fundamental perspective yes 3.05 if WX stays cold....
From TA perspective:
1HR OB
4/5HR OB
Daily is approaching 60 on RSI...
Big money shorts are not covering. They are waiting for this run to peak out to begin shorting again...
GLTU
Congrats...I would phase in. Watch to see where they take NG after report..
Whatever goes up Thursday usually goes up Friday....New WX ensembles dont show up to 3.20. NG running on colder January 2nd week wx forecast...
Nope...Im in the drivers seat. Plenty of dry powder to average down and March futures around corners. Lets see how much bulls can drive this puppy....
A bear report with change in wx ensembles and DGAZ hits 40 plus tomorrow!
What a pleasant surprise...Bought DGAZ 32.01 have plenty of powder!
I think this is a low volume circle jerk. Once report gyration is over on Thursday. shorts will continue what they have been doing for a while now..
Hoping to grab some DGAZ 34's tomorrow.
GLTA
Bots MM do as they please during Expiration....Thus the up and down gyrations intra-day for 2 days now...
Do as you deem appropriate....
GLTU
2.745- Jan
2.737- Feb
The reason UGAZ is up today is because traders are covering their shorts to roll over to Feb...
Wait til they start slamming those Feb futures on Friday. Is going to get ugly here!
Have two orders on queue
1- 35.0
2- 34.00
GLTA
PS. underwater UGAZ players last call, time to leave the playing field!
Agree. starting to show on the HDD....Expecting a test of NG 2.50 soon and possible break to 2.40 before 2018....We shall see.
GLTA
COT REPORT:
Commercials are still short 500K plus contracts
Speculators are still Long 500K plus contracts
Shorts are still in control!
Sideways to down price action forthcoming!
This weeks report will not be as bullish as last weeks. The following weeks report will be bullish. However by next week the WX ensembles will start trending warmer 2nd week of January. Traders are probably more incline to trade the warmer wx and forthcoming March futures than a bullish report that does not seem to have any influence on an over supply market....
You may have miss your reversal peak this morning...
GLTU
Bought a nice bag of DGAZ at 35.56...
For those that are underwater long UGAZ this is your exit week. Take it!
GLTA