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Tick tick tick... time isn't slowing down but the volume sure has.
C'est la guerre.
Q about PRs on a Monday... very rare but we did have one late last year (nov 1). Thursday's used to be called "news-day" here but it hasn't been that consistent recently.
Just here to watch the close.
Enjoy the weekend.
A1
The MMs could have easily painted the tape "even" or in the red today... but they didn't. I see it as a moral victory.
A1... the eternal optimist as Mulford used to say.
Looking for a head count... anyone want to admit they are here and watching? Just curious to see who is keeping a close eye on this verses who is snoozing or who has moved on.
A1
Everyone has a theory... here is mine.
The last few days have proven to be a sign of strength more than a sign of weakness... you read that right.
The true longs are holding. They are the people that did their DD and are willing to wait for either news or a 10Q that is CFP.
Then we have the techinical guys who bought in on the wave of accumulating longs. This is where the selling has been coming from. As the techies saw the momentum slow down, they sell at whatever price they can to get out and watch before buying back in. Now the longs that are doing their homework are few and most just finished topping off, so they were not in a position to support the PPS in the mid 3's.
The result... which we are witnessing now... is the PPS drops on very low volume. This was a "techy sell off"... nothing more. The fact that it hasn't created a vacuum, sucking more weak stomached longs out of the game is great.
All we have to do is hang out close to 3 cents until we get some more news or we see the 10k. For those going fishing for more, I hope you make a killing. I have no more room in my boat for more and I don't have the cash to buy a bigger boat... not yet.
A1
Big picture...
Dow to close over 1200?
S&P to close over 1300?
Wouldn't that be nice?
I think the S&P hits 1400 in 2011, as long as the Euro doesn't cause major problems.
I'd feel better if oil would get back up a little higher.
back on topic...
I for one didn't see share prices under 3 cents coming after seeing it hit 4.1 the other day. It just proves that the support isn't here just yet and the MMs figured it out. We need significant news to bring more players to the game.
A1
Facts are facts... volume and price were low... your interpretation was a sell off and mine wasn't. What you did is no where close to bashing.
I picked up my quota... headed out... someone else can catch all they want today... EZ pickens.
Is the I-HUB site running slow today or is it me?
Looking forward to the next run... later.
A1
I disagree... there isn't much of anything going on today... if there was a lot of selling going on, the volume would be 5 times bigger.
Non-eventful days like this are only good for a snooze or some fishing.
The fishing is only good if you have a line in the water with a baited hook. Otherwise someone else catches the fish and you have to listen to their story.
Are the MMs stirring the pot so they can load up an inventory for the next run? Are the MMs just showing us that we don't have enough support on the buy side to make a run? Whatever they are doing, someone should take advantage of these prices. With CFP coming, so are the teens. When that happens, we will realize that we missed out on some really good fishing.
A1
Here is a list of players in the Eagle Ford Area...
http://oilshalegas.com/eaglefordshale.html
There is no doubt in my mind that once that network is complete this summer that ERF will be able to sign on more new customers to tap into it. Just look at Chesapeake, Apache etc... there are a lot of players here. One of them signed a deal big enough for ERF to build out a huge network... as more customers sign on, the revenues go up and so do the margins.
Looking further down the road, as these new customers sign up in the Eagle Ford area, it will be real easy to convince them to sign on in the other areas that ERF has built or is going to build new networks... take a look at some of the other oil rich formations; each one is populated with lots of the same drilling companies...
Don't be fooled by today's lull in activity... there is a snowball in Texas and it's rolling.
A1
(OT)
MBD...
Can you send me an email to my user name at yahoo dot com?
Time for a sidebar.
A1
Just a few simple observations...
It took close to 3 years to get 500 posts on this board (posts #200-700)
It took 8 months to get 1400 posts (#700- now)
No doubt that ERF has turned the tide. As the momentum builds in 2011, the number of people jumping on this train will snowball. Lots of money will be made here.
Now ERF needs to keep the PR pipeline open. Ideally, at some point, get one or two big customers to toot ERF's horn a little by mentioning ERF's name in one of their PRs. Just one good public endorsement would be PPS igniter, but I won't hold my breath waiting for that one.
On the realistic side, I am not thinking that CFP was that close in Q4 (different opinion than MBD)... I reread yesterday's release and what I am understanding is that the interest in ERF gained momentum in Q4... that interest from new customers probably wasn't in revenue form... my conclusion from that PR is that the new customer revenues are going to be escalating here in 2011.
From what I am reading about the oil industry, investments in new technologies are going to be increasing as they see the oil production demands increasing and the oil prices stabilizing. Drilling teams are working feverishly.
Time for a paradigm shift in what the O&G industry calls the "industry standard" for high speed, secure, in the field communications. SATCOM fades out and ERF's terrestrial coms steps into the spotlight this year.
Time to make some hay.
A1
Interesting that ERF isn't on any of the Penny stock pickers official list tonight... think that will change this week?
http://www.qualitystocks.net/newsletter/chart.html
A1
Key to the big picture is the volume... it has been said before and it is really important.
Look back at today's chart and see how few shares pushed the price up today (at one point 24%). Once we get sustained pressure of the outsiders wanting in, we are going to be clearing out the fours and running into the 5s in one solid day of trading.
Many here believe that the MMs will let it go when we hit 25 to 30M shares in a day... I don't think it will take that many shares now... it could run through the 4s on 10-15M.
All in all... not a bad day at the office.
A1
We won't close above 4 until the MMs think it will go up even higher... they like to think that they can pick off the low hanging fruit just before the next move... if it closes over 4, the move is on to the mid-fours. If it closes below 4, they can buy more in the 3s at the open before letting it go higher. It's their game. We are just along for the ride.
A1
Watching the MMs stir the pot is like trying to figure out which bird in a large flock is actually leading the way. It looks like they are going this way and that way at the same time but all of a sudden, you realize they actually got somewhere or they aren't within your sight anymore.
We need more volume... more exposure... why aren't they out there banging the drum for all to hear. We are still way below the radar... time to bring more attention to the party.
A few years ago ERF hired Rubenstein out of NYC to be the PR firm but if you notice, Rubenstein's name hasn't been on a press release since last July. I guess DC dumped them. So who is going to replace them? ... we need a PR firm now more than ever.
A1
Just think what real volume would do to this thing... it is wound up like a spring.
Look at the chart... how many shares did it take to go from 37 to 41?
There just isn't that much out there for sale.
MDB... Breakfast? Where are you Hawaii?
A1
I do a lot of listening... someone wanted to talk about the possibility of a RS; I thought it didn't make any sense but was willing to listen to any ideas from the board about the topic after I posted my 2 cents... doesn't it make you feel better that there aren't any conspiracy theories floating around about a RS. RS makes little to no sense here.
I'd say the week is off to a good start... as the volume grows, so will the pressure to breakout into the upper 4s.
Load'em up boys... there is no holding this back with any kind of good numbers in the 10k... if CFP's arrival is inevitable based upon what is in that report, we will be firing on all cylinders for many months to come.
MBD... why go into the medical community now when they should be focusing on penetrating deeper into the O&G industry first? Do they have the resources to be good at both?
A1
MMs are testing the waters... they want to see what happens when they stir the pot a little.
Keep the pressure on boys... this thing is about to finally go. I can't wait to see where it settles after it breaks the 200MA.
A1
MBD... what are the odds (as a percentage) that ERFW's Q4 finished CFP? What are the odds that Q1 is going to be CFP, in your estimation?
A1
My analysis is all about reading between the lines because they haven't given us anything "meaty"...
Now, my swammi hat is on and I see 4 cents this week and probably 5 next week.
Looking for insider buying activity or a real piece of news to send this to 10 cents.
20 cents should be easily within reach by mid August.
Someone asked about a reverse split... what would be the point? ... just to get listed. We would end up on the AMEX which isn't anything to celebrate. It all depends upon DC's exit strategy. If he is going to set this up for a buy out, then there is no need for a reverse split. If he plans to let the business plan run for 5+ years, he'd best find a seasoned CEO to come in and take it from here. In a 5+ year plan, as CEO, I wouldn't do a reverse split until I was posting earnings and could see from my team's projections when a reverse split might make sense. With the potential this company has, $2 isn't that hard to see in 18-36 months... so why reverse split? Anyone else care to comment on the advantages of a reverse split?
A1
If you are into reading between the lines, (and that is all we can do with this news since there isn't anything concrete here), this PR is hinting at CFP coming real soon... at CFP I used to think 25-30 cents was the right number. With 419M shares outstanding, I will drop my estimate by 3-4 cents but ... but I can add more than 3-4 cents right back in if the company isn't just headed to CFP but to significant earnings in the near future.... there is a ton of potential here. If the critical point is behind us soon, the PPS is headed NORTH... way north compared to these prices!
BOL
A1
According to Nick777 on the Y board... Friday's announcement is a part of the employee compensation plan and the fee has to be paid annually so they declare the value at market prices and pay a fee. It is a paperwork drill.
But I see 419M shares outstanding so shares have been added for reason since Q3.
The most amazing new number is the number of shareholders. During the past few quarters, there have been under 500 shareholders ... as of Jan. 7th, there are an estimated 2500. I find it hard to believe.
A1
MBD... who are you calling on Monday? Claureen doesn't say much when I get her on the phone... do you have any chance of getting past her and talking with someone else?
Big announcement... big announcement... you have been saying this for a while, is it here? It would make sense to drop the 25M shares bomb on us on a Friday after hours just before a big PR the next week... but next week isn't February and you are also saying that February will be a big month... why? why Feb vs next week?
As a rule, I try not to get too excited before an event happens... that way, there is no let down if it doesn't pan out. But I can't help but think that the next few months are going to be a break out ( or a move back) to the proper valuation a company like this deserves.
If you punch some numbers you can see that this business plan can command a significant market cap once is gets "over the top"... it has to become CFP and then add just a little more so that this dilution cr@p is behind us. Once it's earnings are large enough to feed the expansion into new networks and new industries, we are going to make a ton of money.
Even if they dilute it further with a the last of the authorized shares... I'd prefer not to but in my head, I figure that it is the price for growing out the business.
Next week? ... I see a cautious, low volume opening if there is no news. The MMs can lead us by the nose a little. They can prey on our fears and force a little sell off or they could push it north in anticipation of some good news. I've got my shares and I am not selling soon, so a dip or an uptick are no bigger. My payday is many quarters away.
A1
I agree... there could news this week... In the big picture, 25M shares isn't the end of the world... what is it 1/13 of the pie?
This would be a lot easier to take if we knew CFP was coming soon.
A1
.033 at 2.06M shares Better than I expected.
Cocktail time.
A1
You should be asking the MMs ... they seem to be a step ahead of us.
A1
Looks like the MMs are headed north.
A1
After I saw how last week played out, I really did think that we would be trading in the 4's most of the week.
I can wait until next week or the next. It will happen.
The next hour is going to be the tell-tale for Monday.... which way are the MMs leaning?
A1
Disappointing week when I think about the atmosphere around here 7-8 days ago... the traffic on the boards is way down compared to last week... question is, will they come back for the next run?
How long until we hear from the front office again? I'd like to know what industry is next and what kind of potential that industry has. DC hinted that a new industry is coming so let's what he is talking about.
One thing I do like about this little pull back, the volume was very low compared to the volume that moved it up. Am I wrong to think that this means that during the last run up we picked up some more investors who are willing to hold on, verses the quick flippers that take what profits they can and scurry to the next stock making its move. The more accumulation that occurs the better... the less the daily float, the better.
Watch what happens when this trades 20M-30M shares in a day. I expect to see the PPS go vertical, like it did in Dec-08. Hold on to what you can.
A1
Most agree that oil is on the rise (today being the exception).
Here is an article that will help pass the time on this boring day... How-to-Invest-in-Rising-Oil
Look at where they suggest investing... either in the oil companies themselves or the companies that support the O&G industry. O&G budgets are more solid than they were during last 2 years. Companies like ERF are going to be in the right place at the right time.
All we need are a few more PRs that say they have signed with mutliB$ customers... I don't care if we get their names in print... just show me that the top line is growing.
One great thing about this business plan... these contracts are mutli year, sometimes 10 year, deals... so the reoccurring revenues start adding up and adding up, while the margins get better and better as more sign on.
Cheers,
A1
It didn't go to $1.80 in today's dollars... there are twice as many shares out there today so let's call it 90 cents. That run came at a time when the penny stock guys were promoting the stock and ERF announced a huge deal with SLB (it never panned out because SLB decided to sell off their communications division... I can explain why if you'd like me too).
You are correct. There were no earnings and yet the price was at 90 cents... this was in anticipation of future earnings. High growth stocks are volatile because the PPS follows projections without a proven history. You buy a large cap based on projections and its recent history (PE ratio). Penny stocks are a different game entirely.
Now I am right with you... new industries are going to become part of the equation but before we go there, let's look at the O&G industry. If you go back and look at the Mithra report (a third party analysis of the company), you will find that an MBT generates roughly $2500/month out in the field. ERF has an order for about 200 of these things to be built. I don't know how many are in the field but when all of them are out there, they generate about $6M/year. So I look at just north America's drilling activity and try to figure out how many MBTs could be in the field... I come up with 5 to 10 times that original 200. That is $30 to $60M dollars in revenue... Now look at the size of the O&G industry outside of North America... can you see how this thing could snowball into some huge numbers... I can.
Back to the other industries... the overlapping vertical market idea is solid. If the existing O&G networks overlap several different types of customers, the margins are going to be really high. The medical industry is the new glutton of secure data... all those MRIs, charts, and xrays need to be transmitted to where ever they are needed. The education industry is another user of large amounts of data. Emergency response teams, national guard, on and on. But now come back to banks... this is huge. The banking industry using wireless is going to grow leaps and bounds once the traction hits that critical point... but no one is pushing banks right now.
ERF appears to be focused on the O&G industry because it has traction and the industry is financially strong. It is the earnings from this division that will feed the rest of the company with the needed capital to penetrate the other industries... in the future.
So what's the problem with $3-$5... it can't happen over night. The company can only grow so fast.... it has been too slow up to now but that should change. Point is, they survived the 2008-10 recession and are positioned for explosive growth... if... if, they can turn the corner soon to CFP.
Now doubt, it has the potential of a multi-Billion dollar market cap... but let it morph at a reasonable pace. Until the emerging markets prove their potential for all to see and the size of ERF's piece of each industry's pie is predictable, the PPS won't get too far ahead before its time.
90 cents this year... sure I can buy that... but not much more without some major, major announcements.
A1
$3 to $5 ???? This year? ... This year? Wow. I could retire on that.
Optimism without the proper proof could lead one to believe that you have a screw that needs an adjustment in the ol' noggin... so I am asking... how do you draw such a conclusion? Here is where I am coming from with a PE ratio of 15 (aggressive), ERF would have to have earnings around $65M... or if the PE were only 10, then ERF would have to have earnings around $100 for the year. Whoa Nelly... reality check on the ERF Board...stat!
Now if the company did $30M in earnings this year with enough contracts to project $100M+ the next year... then you could see how the PPS would lead the actual earnings. But COME ON MAN?... $3-$5 this year?
How about $3-$5 with a few years?
A1
Thursday used to be PR day around here. I'd like to see that tradition start up again tomorrow.
Hey front office, throw us a bone with some meat on it... I am hungry.
A1
As for the asst MOD... I would say "yes" except I have a very time consuming project coming up at the end of February that will keep me away from my desk for most of each work day. I will have to be playing catch up each night as I am anticipating making a boat load here over the next year to year and a half. As this gains traction and the work gets out, I hope you are able to find a loyal long to be of more assistance than I could be.
As for CFP in Q4, I am basing my limited optimism on the Q3 numbers and the announcements made during the last half of the year. I try to connect the dots to see if new contracts could close the gap to becoming CFP and I don't see that happening... but based on DC recent comments, I am truly optimistic that CFP is much closer than most would think possible. If you study the numbers like I have, you'd see that the overhead has been reduced and the revenues are growing... add to that, the fact that the margins increase as the efficiency of each network becomes better with each additional revenue producing service point.
So my sensible side says it isn't Q4... my cautious side says it could be as late as Q2, but my gut tells me that we should be CFP in Q1.
Looking for a positive movement on the close.
A1
I understand the temptation to turn your back on this one but before you do, don't forget to do your DD. This company does have a ton of potential. It isn't just hype.
I suspect that as we get closer to the EOY numbers release we will see a few more modest runs here. I don't expect Q4 to be CFP, but I do think that there may be progress in that direction. If the numbers suggest that CFP is a quarter or two away, there will be lots of action here. Between now and the release of the numbers, all bets are off. This PPS may rise without warning and it may in fact give some back without warning. Until the volume is higher, the MMs will play their games.
Don't walk away just yet....Keep your eye on the prize.
A1
Where is Kronborg? Floating around in 80 degree sunny skies, slurping up umbrella drinks... he is going to miss the action.
A1
A watched pot never boils and it sure is boring.
Can someone light a match under this thing?
A1
Nobody likes arriving at a party too early... so sit tight and don't sweat it. The band is setting up and the other guests will be here shortly. If you leave now, it will a lot harder to get back in later.
A1
Standing at the water's edge on a hot summer night... the buzz is on and no one wants to be the first one to drop their drawers and start skinny dipping until you know the girls are going to follow the lead.
Everyone stand up, drop your drawers... let's get this party started.
No one wants to be the aggressive bidder until the train starts moving... the train won't move until the bids stack up... the MMs will stir the pot and steal the low hanging fruit until ... BOOM... without notice, the party is on.... whether it happens in 5 minutes or during the last hour of trading to today... or maybe it won't happen until tomorrow... who knows when?... we know it is going to happen... so don't miss it... get ready to jump in and join the party people.
A1
ARRRRRRE YOU READY TO RUMBLE.... this is going to be an action packed week. Let's roll.
A1
(OT) As long as the Sox beat the Yankees in head to head regular season competition and the Sox go further in the playoffs, the season is declared successful... I promise to cheer on your Rangers every time they play the Yankees.
As far as Big Ben, I haven't seen him in the shower but if I do, I will have a death grip on my "soap on a rope".
I think the Steelers Jets game will be close so I am taking the Jets and the points. The Steelers offensive line doesn't have the depth to keep Big Ben off the turf.
Looking forward to some action here this week... it should be one of many this year for the ERFers.
A1