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Gutsy trade here on a 40% drop in leveraged gold miners. Buying the dip on the 90% bearish spin. Predictable price drop during the week of maximum Washington D.C. arguments, when another kicking of the can down the road is coming. GDXJ and NUGT scaling in. Not for the feint of heart.
$NUGT...dipped my toes into the water here. Every time there is political noise from Washington, gold drops, only to rebound strongly right after they kick the can down the road in predictable fashion.
$NVIV: SeekingAlpha please post link on Scheff's Board, Thx.
$NVIV: SeekingAlpha article catalyst play for HUD decision in early march by FDA:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1187401-invivo-therapeutics-why-run-up-to-march-9-likely
$NVIV - outstanding case for the future of spinal scaffolding device, from Factman777 on YMB:
Fact 1: Currently there is nothing approved that can restore function to patients with traumatic Spinal Cord Injury (SCI, paralysis). Each year $10 billion is spent on patients with acute SCI, so the market potential is huge.
Fact 2: InVivo’s polymer-based medical treatments have been successful in restoring, within three to five weeks, functional improvement in more than 40 paralyzed green monkeys. No other company has ever restored function to a single paralyzed monkey.
Fact 3: The DNA in green monkeys is a 98% match to the DNA in humans so there is an overwhelming chance that this will work just as well in humans. Clinical trials in humans will begin in 2013.
Fact 4: InVivo’s “scaffold” is a biopolymer material already approved by the FDA for other uses, such a sutures, that ultimately dissolve into CO2 and water.
Fact 5: In April 2012, the FDA confirmed that the Company’s biopolymer scaffolding device can indeed be considered a medical device (not a pharmaceutical) and therefore follow the pathway for an Investigational Device Exemption. The FDA will allow the device to proceed along the Humanitarian Use Device/Humanitarian Device Exemption pathway. This means that the Company might only have to try this on as few as 5 patients before receiving FDA approval for the device to be marketed for humanitarian use while testing continues.
Fact 6: On May 9, 2012, Frank M. Reynolds, the Chief Executive Officer of InVivo Therapeutics Holdings Corp., terminated his previously disclosed Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, which covered potential sales of up to 4,000,000 shares of common stock of the Company. No sales were made pursuant to the Rule 10b5-1 Plan. Frank has not sold a share since April 2012 and previous sales were due to a one-time personal reason and had nothing to do with future company performance.
Fact 7: On Sep 18, 2012, Brain Hess replaced Edward Wirth as Chief Science Officer. Edward Wirth’ s expertise was in stem cell research while Mr. Hess basically invented the materials used in InVivo’s scaffolding devices. Getting stem cell applications in humans through the FDA can take several years. Mr. Hess was instrumental in developing HydroSetTM, an injectable calcium phosphate based bone substitute, from concept to product launch. The product has become the market-leading bone scaffold, and Stryker awarded Mr. Hess and his team with “Best Technology” and “Best Team Synergy” for their work on this critical product. Mr. Hess also won several research and development awards during his tenure at Stryker. Most notably he was named "Co-Innovator of the Year" in 2010 within Stryker Orthopedics. So their new Chief Science Officer is now much more aligned with the company’s goals.
Fact 8: On Sep 25, 2012, InVivo opened their new Office and Labs in Cambridge, MA. The polymer-based scaffold material will be made in this new state of the art facility. This will also act as the new company’s headquarters.
Fact 9: Approval from the FDA to start the 5 patient human clinical trials has been delayed due to the approval of batches made in in this brand new facility. These batches are to be used in the upcoming 5 patient human clinical trials. The approval is expected very soon, with human clinical trials set to begin by mid-2013.
When dealing with the FDA, it always takes longer than expected. Three to nine months from now this will turn out to be a positive as it has allowed new investors to buy shares at ridiculously low prices and allowed other investors who bought over $2.00 a share to average down.
Fact 10: InVivo has begun discussions with the FDA about its second product, a drug releasing hydrogel for use as a long term pain management of peripheral nerve pain. There are millions of peripheral nerve procedures performed on patients every year, and the Company will leverage its technology by also submitting its injectable hydrogel drug releasing product for use on peripheral nerve injury.
Fact 11: InVivo has Bob Langer, Sc.D. on their team. Robert S. Langer is the David H. Koch Institute Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (being an Institute Professor is the highest honor that can be awarded to a faculty member). Dr. Langer has written over 1,100 articles. He also has approximately 760 issued and pending patents worldwide. Dr. Langer’s patents have been licensed or sublicensed to over 220 pharmaceutical, chemical, biotechnology and medical device companies.
He served as a member of the United States Food and Drug Administration’s SCIENCE Board, the FDA’s highest advisory board, from 1995 — 2002 and as its Chairman from 1999- 2002.
His experience at the FDA should not be underestimated. He was instrumental in convincing the FDA to allow InVivo’s polymer-based medical treatments to proceed along the Humanitarian Use Device/Humanitarian Device Exemption pathway with just an initial 5 patient clinical trial. See Fact 5 above.
Fact 12: Frank Reynolds is an extremely driven CEO that is passionate about helping people with Spinal Cord injuries. Mr. Reynolds suffered a paralyzing injury to his spine in December 1992. He spent 5 years of his life in bed paralyzed, except for some small movement in his legs, but only when he laid down. He could not walk. While recovering from this injury he spent several years gaining subject matter expertise on the spine and spinal cord.
Fact 13: InVivo raised $20 million in early 2012 from a select group of institutional investors and has $18.0 million of cash on hand as of June 30, 2012. This is sufficient to fund operations well into 2014. Exercise of warrants also has the potential to raise an additional $16.7 million of cash.
Fact 14: National Medal of Technology and Innovation award received by Dr. Robert Langer from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology during a ceremony in the East Room of the White House in Washington, February 1, 2013.
Fact 15: InVivo management is confident human studies will begin in the next few months for their biopolymer scaffolding product. In an October 2012 letter to shareholders, Frank Reynolds noted that the FDA has confirmed the regulation of the scaffold product as a device. In December 2012, InVivo filed a request with the U.S. FDA for a Humanitarian Use Device (HUD) designation for its biopolymer scaffolding product for the treatment of acute spinal cord injury. The request comes after an April 2012 meeting in which InVivo and the FDA discussed the requirements for the HUD designation and the potential for the device to be regulated and distributed under a Humanitarian Device Exemption (HDE). A HUD designation and a subsequent approved HDE would enable InVivo to commercialize the device in the U.S. faster than the Pre-Market (PMA) approval process. InVivo is guiding to start the 5-person human study in the next few months, with data rolling out two months later. If the trial works, InVivo could request HDE approval by the end of the year.
$NVIV: PR news states that clinical trials of spinal scaffolding device in human patients are expected to be underway by this summer's conference. Translated that means that FDA is going to approve scaffolding device as a HUD, which goes through approval testing much faster than drug trials.
NVIV has performed clinical trials on monkeys that clearly demonstrated dramatic regeneration of spinal nerve function after scaffolding device treatment.
The ex-head of the FDA is on-board, as is Dr. Langer who has around 750 patents and roughly 250 successful approvals on his record.
2013 good year for biodiesel: $REGI is a small cap co., the largest biodiesel producer in the US, which just acquired a number of other facilities at bargain prices last year, giving it a fast growth trajectory. $REGI will receive IN THIS QUARTER a HUGE biodiesel blender credit retroactive for 2012, equal to 1/3 of number gallons sold in 2012...in round numbers, that's 1/3 of 180M gal into 30M shares, equivalent to $2 EPS.
For the remainder of 2013, sales will rise in proportion to the 28% increase in Fed RFS2 mandate (2013 versus 2012). That should adds another $2.60 to 2013 EPS.
Net 2013 earnings will comprise organic profits (variable economics for soybean feedstock prices versus wholesale biodiesel prices), plus the $2 retroactive blender credit from 2012, plus $2.60, plus or minus, for new 2013 blender credits.
FORWARD P/E is around 1.35. Potential 2-bagger or 3-bagger later this year.
Link to the 8K explaining the projected amount of the retroactive 2012 blender credit:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1463258/000119312513006898/d464584d8k.htm
$REGI: 2013 expecting great year for biodiesel.
Renewable Energy Group is the largest independent biodiesel producer in the US. They announced in an 8K that they will receive during the current quarter, blender tax credits retroactive for year 2012. This is part of the bill passed in congress on 12/31/2012 which creates a $1 blender credit per gallon of biodiesel produced for 2013.
The tax credit is shared up and down the food chain. REGI stated in the 8k they expect to receive an amount equal to 1/3 of the gallons of biodiesel sold in 2012, which equates to about $2 EPS with 30M sharecount in round numbers.
For new sales in 2013, the Federal RFS2 mandate requires 1.28 billion gallons of biodiesel be blended with conventional diesel (up 28% from 2012's mandate), with $1.5 per gallon credit given through the RIN tracking system. So both the blender tax credit and the RIN system enhance the profitability of biodiesel and set a floor for demand.
REGI has engaged in a string of acquisitions last year, which should also set them for higher sales for 2013. At a minimum, I expect about 30% increased gallons sold in 2013 over 2012.
For 2013, the total profits for REGI are comprised of organic profits (based on margins of economics given soybean stock prices and the selling price of biodiesel, which is helped by RIN credits), plus the blender credits received for 2012 ($2 EPS), plus the 2013 blender credits (estimate $2.60 EPS).
Given that REGI is currently trading in the low $6 range, a $4.60-plus net income for 2013 makes this stock very attractive and a likely double later this year. Statistics on REGI include a P/B of $0.56 and a TTM EPS of $2.66
Check out Renewable Energy Group, biodiesel producer. Sorry it isn't an OTC, but it is small cap which just acquired a number of other facilities at bargain prices last year, giving it a fast growth trajectory similar to the OTCs. 2013 will be a good year for biodiesel. $REGI will receive IN THIS QUARTER a HUGE biodiesel blender credit retroactive for 2012, equal to 1/3 of number gallons sold in 2012...in round numbers, that's 1/3 of 180M gal into 30M shares, equivalent to $2 EPS.
For the remainder of 2013, sales will rise in proportion to the 28% increase in Fed RFS2 mandate (2013 versus 2012). That should adds another $2.60 to 2013 EPS.
Net 2013 earnings will comprise organic profits (variable economics for soybean feedstock prices versus wholesale biodiesel prices), plus the $2 retroactive blender credit from 2012, plus $2.60, plus or minus, for new 2013 blender credits.
FORWARD P/E is around 1.35. Potential 2-bagger or 3-bagger later this year.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1463258/000119312513006898/d464584d8k.htm
2013 good yr for biodiesel: $REGI
During current quarter they will receive a HUGE biodiesel blender credit retroactive for 2012, equal to 1/3 of number gallons sold in 2012...in round numbers, that's 1/3 of 180M gal into 30M shares, equivalent to $2 EPS.
For the remainder of 2013, sales should roughly increase in proportion to the 28% increase in federal RFS2 mandate requiring diesel producers to blend 28% more biodiesel into products sold in 2013 versus 2012. That adds another $2.60 to 2013 EPS.
Total earnings to include organic profits (based on economics for soybean feedstock prices versus wholesale biodiesel prices), plus $2 (retroactive blender credit) pluls $2.60 (new 2013 credits).
That makes FORWARD P/E 1.35 or smaller. A LOT OF ROOM FOR GROWTH HERE.
I see an easy double in $REGI stock price as this plays out this year.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1463258/000119312513006898/d464584d8k.htm
An overview of the RFS2 program goals, including current expectations for graudally increasing the mandate for different biofuels components, and an economic analysis of the effects of RFS2 mandates on RIN prices, is given in the Jan 23 2012 report by the congressional research service:
www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40155.pdf
Iowa State University has the link:
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/energy/xls/d1-15biodieselprofitability.xlsx
The author of the spreadsheet has a few links on his website:
http://www.agmrc.org/renewable_energy/biodiesel/biodiesel.cfm
The prices of biodiesel RIN credits are listed on this website:
http://www.biofuelsconnect.com/Default.htm
Organic profits are there, too, provided there isn't a squeeze between soybean drought and low diesel retail prices. Univ of Iowa has a downloadable spreadsheet which estimates cents per gallon profits based on many moving parts. They also produce from waste animal fats which are a cheap feedstock, and will probably branch out via acquisition into other promising technologies for biodiesel. The new director of business development just appointed is focusing on a variety of uses for all that cash.
Wasn't PR'd and didnt show up on yahoo finance or etrade news feeds.
Not a worry for 4 years, based on passage of blender credit in current political climate. However, I tend to invest for medium term not long term and 2016 is a long ways off.
REGI undervalued 4X using Graham's number:
Here is a show-stopper for a Graham's number undervalued stock:
Renewable Energy Group (REGI), largest independent biodiesel producer in the US. Statistics from E*Trade:
Current P/B = 0.58
Current TTM EPS = 2.662
Current PPS = 6.34
Book value = PPS / (P/B) = 10.93
Graham's Number = 25.59 = SQRT ( 22.5 x 2.662 x 10.93 )
So PPS = 6.34 = 0.25 x 25.59, or a factor of 4 undervalued.
REGI just issued an 8K under the radar on January 8, which projected that the dollar value of the Federal blender tax credit retroactive for 2012 biodiesel sales will equal 1/3 of 2012 gallons sold. One-third of 180 million gallons = $60 million additional revenue, according to the 8K will be booked in this quarter. With 30 million outstanding shares in round numbers, that is $2 added to EPS.
For 2013, assume sales will be AT LEAST 30% higher due to 28% increase in 2013 vs. 2012 federal biodiesel blending mandate, and due to several acquisitions by REGI in 2012. So the blender tax credit for the current year adds another $2.60 to EPS.
1) No, but neither is it likely Geo faked all the videos submitted to the SEC. They could easily go to jail in the US, while LPH mainland China employees are above the reach of US law.
2) I trust neither side, but I was following U&U's research on Yahoo for a couple months. The one that really blew me away was the exaggeration of tank sizes at not one, but all 3 facilities. If you don't think that is evidence of systematic attempt at misinformation, well, I have a bridge to sell you.
3) The downfall is always the greed of American investors who invest in these RTOs over and over again, and blindly trust a piece of paper prepared by an auditor as some kind of invincible immunity from fraud. I am sure LPH had a real business, and still has some tiny business, just not in the same order of magnitude as they are representing. With ANY China RTO, one has to always keep monitoring events and news with a VERY open mind and be quick to react as to whether such new information increases the probability of fraud.
Good luck...I sold long before it all hit the fan...I saw the writing on the wall as the evidence started to stack up on the message boards. I hope for your sake Geo is wrong and LPH is truthful, but IMHO that has about 1% chance.
Posters on Yahoo warned U&U on at least 2 occasions that Longwei had installed monitoring cameras that could be used to refute claims about lack of traffic at the facility. So I don't think Geo would attempt that blatant of a manipulation because some kind of forensics specialist in the US could prove which of the two party's videotapes was authentic.
$REGI Stealth 8k with no PR, not on Yahoo finance.
Thanks for heads up. That is really blockbuster news for $REGI.
I called REGI's IR yesterday to confirm that the dollar value of the blender tax credit they are projecting to be equal to 1/3 of volume in gallons biodiesel sold for 2012. They will book this in the current quarter.
If they met 2012 volume targets (which in all likelihood they should), that means 180M gal/3 = $60 million immediate to the bottom line for Q ending 03/31/13. With 30M sharecount that works out to be about $2 added to EPS just for this quarter alone.
When you figure that 2013 production will be roughly 30% higher (due to 28% increase in RFS2 mandate for biodiesel use and due to REGI's recent track record of multiple acquisitions), then for the calendar and fiscal year 2013 EPS should be at least:
$2 (from 2012 retroactive credit) PLUS 1.3 x $2 (for 2013 credits)
That means with a current PPS of $6.4, REGI has a forward P/E of around 1.3 to 1.5...
When the market realizes this and REGI PR's the 8K (which they have not), this could really take off.
There is virtually no revenue risk in the near future for this stock - the $4.6 to $5 EPS is a tax credit, regardless of how well this years soybean crop will perform.
And based on the 1.28 billion gallon federal mandate for diesel producers to blend biodiesel for 2013 (up from 1.0B for 2012), that is guaranteed demand, since REGI is the largest independent biodiesel producer in the USA and has around 6 facilities now, after their acquisitions. So the 30% sales increase for 2013 might turn out to be a slight underestimate, if anything.
REGI 8K: expects HUGE biodiesel blender 2012 credit -- equal to 1/3 of number gallons sold in 2012...WOW!
REGI expects the dollar value for retractive 2012 blender credits will be realized IN CURRENT QUARTER.
As shown in the filing below, they stated the dollar value of those credits should equal to approximately 1/3 of the number of 2012 gallons sold.
Assuming they are on-target for 2012 gallons at around 180 million gallons, that is a whopping $60 million credit all applied to the January to March 2013 earnings.
With a sharecount in round numbers of 30 million, that means about $2 added to quarterly EPS for THE CURRENT QUARTER.
For the remainder of 2013, assume roughly 30% increase in gallons sold (180 x 1.3 = 234 million gallons) x a credit of 1/3 = $78 million, which divided by 30 million shares adds another $2.60 to 2013 EPS. (With the acquisitions that REGI has done and the increase in RFS2 mandate to 1.28 billion gallons from 1.0 billion gallons, that 30% increase should be easily achieved in 2013.)
BASED ON THAT EPS for 2013 should be OVER = $2 (retractive) + $2.60 (new credits) = $4.60
That makes FORWARD P/E better than 1.35 or smaller. A LOT OF ROOM FOR GROWTH HERE.
I see a potential TRIPLE in this stock price as this plays out this year.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1463258/000119312513006898/d464584d8k.htm
Contents of 8K filed:
"On January 3, 2013, President Obama signed into law the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, which reinstated a set of tax extender items including the reinstatement of the federal biodiesel blenders tax credit for 2013 and retroactively reinstated credit for 2012. The retroactive credit for 2012 is estimated to result in a net payment to Renewable Energy Group, Inc. (the “Company”) equal to approximately one-third of the number of 2012 gallons sold. Because there are practically no associated costs, the payment will increase the Company’s pre-tax operating earnings and EBITDA by a similar amount. As previously disclosed, the Company was not operating with the expectation that the credit would be in place although it has conducted its business in a manner which would create attractive incremental economics if the credit was reinstated. The Company currently expects the credit to be recognized as revenue for the first quarter of 2013.
REG expects to report fourth quarter and full year 2012 results in early March."
I called Investor Relations to inform them that the 8K did not show up on my stock-specific news feeds for ETrade or for Yahoo finance. I also asked IR to confirm the math from the guidance as the dollar value of the credit equal to 1/3 of number of 2012 gallons sold. We also talked about 2013 gallons and the company said they have not yet developed any estimate for how many gallons they project to sell in 2013, nor for what percent of the credit will end up in their pockets because, like with the 1/3 credit for 2012, the credit is absorbed up and down the food chain. Absent any further guidance, I used the 2012 fraction of 1/3 in my estimate. When the 10K is released in early March the company could provide some further information on how things are going or projected to play out for this year. All those acquisitions are sure to help, IMHO.
REGI 8K: expects HUGE biodiesel blender 2012 credit -- equal to 1/3 of number gallons sold in 2012...WOW!
REGI expects the dollar value for retractive 2012 blender credits will be realized IN CURRENT QUARTER.
As shown in the filing below, they stated the dollar value of those credits should equal to approximately 1/3 of the number of 2012 gallons sold.
Assuming they are on-target for 2012 gallons at around 180 million gallons, that is a whopping $60 million credit all applied to the January to March 2013 earnings.
With a sharecount in round numbers of 30 million, that means about $2 added to quarterly EPS for THE CURRENT QUARTER.
For the remainder of 2013, assume roughly 30% increase in gallons sold (180 x 1.3 = 234 million gallons) x a credit of 1/3 = $78 million, which divided by 30 million shares adds another $2.60 to 2013 EPS. (With the acquisitions that REGI has done and the increase in RFS2 mandate to 1.28 billion gallons from 1.0 billion gallons, that 30% increase should be easily achieved in 2013.)
BASED ON THAT EPS for 2013 should be OVER = $2 (retractive) + $2.60 (new credits) = $4.60
That makes FORWARD P/E better than 1.35 or smaller. A LOT OF ROOM FOR GROWTH HERE.
I see a potential TRIPLE in this stock price as this plays out this year.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1463258/000119312513006898/d464584d8k.htm
Contents of 8K filed:
"On January 3, 2013, President Obama signed into law the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, which reinstated a set of tax extender items including the reinstatement of the federal biodiesel blenders tax credit for 2013 and retroactively reinstated credit for 2012. The retroactive credit for 2012 is estimated to result in a net payment to Renewable Energy Group, Inc. (the “Company”) equal to approximately one-third of the number of 2012 gallons sold. Because there are practically no associated costs, the payment will increase the Company’s pre-tax operating earnings and EBITDA by a similar amount. As previously disclosed, the Company was not operating with the expectation that the credit would be in place although it has conducted its business in a manner which would create attractive incremental economics if the credit was reinstated. The Company currently expects the credit to be recognized as revenue for the first quarter of 2013.
REG expects to report fourth quarter and full year 2012 results in early March."
I called Investor Relations to inform them that the 8K did not show up on my stock-specific news feeds for ETrade or for Yahoo finance. I also asked IR to confirm the math from the guidance as the dollar value of the credit equal to 1/3 of number of 2012 gallons sold. We also talked about 2013 gallons and the company said they have not yet developed any estimate for how many gallons they project to sell in 2013, nor for what percent of the credit will end up in their pockets because, like with the 1/3 credit for 2012, the credit is absorbed up and down the food chain. Absent any further guidance, I used the 2012 fraction of 1/3 in my estimate. When the 10K is released in early March the company could provide some further information on how things are going or projected to play out for this year. All those acquisitions are sure to help, IMHO.
No. Not Burp.
LOL. That was the infamous "Donna Kay" on that conference call making fun of the promises the company was making but not delivering on. At the time I recall it had been many months and still no tax filing reconciliation and still no acquisition closing. Could have been other issues, but those were the main ones. The guy who did that wasn't even invested in LPH and as far as I know never has invested in LPH. Not that he hasn't traded (and lost) on other Chinese stocks.
2011 was a very scary year, for sure. After all the other companies that were halted in 2011, many investors weren't even sure if LPH auditors were going to sign off on the 10K, that's how high the fear index was at the time. I guess you could say that memories fade quickly - In 2012 the complacency index was up quite a bit, based on how many China stocks had a run in PPS in the fall. Many folks predicted that shorts would come back this year as soon as Chinese stocks that were previously beaten down to P/E values below 1 had a chance to rise up in price so the shorts would have a better reward ratio.
Already knew that, ancient history.
FYI -- really cool website for corporate officer links is www.implu.com. you can see all companies associated with any person or vice versa, and I think it draws a connections diagram. The one for LPH and Toups is pretty detailed.
Toups? Are you kidding...LTUS is his middle name...scam is his father's game!
This isn't anything he hasn't already seen before...I recall he resigned from LTUS shortly after their fiasco which was exposed by none other than...<drumroll>...GeoInvesting. Geo saved me personally a few thousand bucks when they started releasing news about the inappropriate land valuation for LTUS...I got out of LTUS at break even, thankfully.
Hey, their answers sounded convincing during the CC.
If we only knew back then what we know now...
1) If they were cheating, it looks a lot more plausible to miss earnings estimates than to constantly beat estimates. Especially when they claimed margins that were higher than most middlemen.
2) Kevin Chen is a US analyst and was not formally hired by either LPH or RedChip. He crunched nummbers and did comparables analysis, but I recall he has stated in the past that he has not visited LPH facilities. So there is no reason to hide. However, he will most certainly think twice before ever writing analyst coverage of a US-listed China stock. He was a believer in the tax filing reconciliation, as were a lot of folks.
3) I think there could be more to why LPH claimed they could not install live webcams a couple years ago when they announced they were going to have live webcams to prove their facilities were really selling oil. Recall CBEH had just been busted by A. Little about a month or two before LPH came out with their plan to install webcams in the next month. At that point it is likely RedChip really believed them. But when they came up with an excuse that they were not approved by the government to display videostream on the internet due to, among other things, sales to military customers - well, IMHO, that is when RedChip should have started doing some un-announced visits just to call their bluff. In addition, it is likely RedChip just didn't want to know too much or be too involved in internal controls over reporting, which leaves all the liability up to the CFO, the BOD, and the auditor, to verify the operations and numbers in SEC filings.
Geo had a plausible theory. Locals said Longwei's business began to slow down in 2011 when the price of oil dropped.
Recall LPH kept saying they could arbitrage oil successfully using prepaid advances to suppliers whether refinery prices were going up or going down.
At this point that thesis should be revisited. Oil steadily fell throughout spring and summer of 2011. Chances are they were selling at a loss during that period and perhaps during other seasonal pullbacks such as occurred in summer of 2010 as well. It could have put them out of business, IF they had a business other than the couple of gas stations.
That's where all those funny little criss-crossing lines in the ownership relationships between various companies/third parties comes in. I find this part of the game the most popcorn-style intruiging. Maybe the next thing is for GeoInvesting to publish a novel that Hollywood can turn into a movie about the many dealings of Ming Zhao and his money-laundering fraudcomplices. Except at the end of the movie a couple of CIA drones fly into downtown Hong Kong and zero in on 2 BMW license plates labelled, "PUDA" and "LPH". For real, the owner of PUDA really does drive a luxury car with "PUDA" on the license plate.
I have spoken with Mike Bowdoin several times. Lately he has only tried to steer me towards their latest non-Chinese stocks.
It is possible RedChip already knew shortsellers were VERY busy doing research on LPH as their latest findings on LPH were being reported on a daily basis on the LPH Yahoo message board.
So given that RedChip may have had a clear idea shortsellers were soon going to document there was "no activity" with lack of any distributor trucks filling up at the Taiyuan facility, perhaps RedChip decided it would look better to the US authorities if they appeared completely naive and ignorant of what was really happening at LPH facilities. Hence the decision to re-sign contractual IR agreements.
In reality, anyone who visited LPH facilities mutliple times per year must have seen this lack of activity in 2012. Only the staged visits for "investor day" special events would have had busy activity, and the CFO and also RedChip were likely to have been in China more often than that. So the re-signing of a contract might be just posturing to protect RedChip in a lawsuit within the USA so that this business decision would appear consistent that RedChip was ignorant of the fraudulent problems up to the last minute when the hit piece was released.
This is just a theory because none of the parties living in China are within the long arm of the law of the US SEC, whereas both Toups and Gentry live (at least part of the year) in the USA. Perhaps this is also why Jim Crane decided to permanently live in China, who knows?
Glen, thanks for answering that question.
I tend to be very sector-specific in my investing. I would rather wait around in cash for a long time for a particular sector or sectors to have a major run and get in a very profitable stock in that sector, than to spread money into sectors that aren't expected to exhibit a dramatic run.
But that is just me. I am not skilled enough to simultanously pick and follow 15 companies in 8 sectors in my portfolio where a number of them may just be slow turtles. Which brings me to why I didn't pick phone book companies when I first read you were investing in them. My gut feel was just that paper information is a dying breed of databases. Furthermore, the electronic databases are becoming cheaper and cheaper to access by all users at lower and lower prices. I just didn't understand how the business model could get better over time, not that phone book companies don't currently have profitable and successful operations.
But I thank you again for warning us - all the time I have invested in RTOs I have slept with one eye open and one hand on the "sell" button, as well as monitoring all the forum information sources. As one has to in order to have a chance of saving yourself if something surprisingly bad is suddenly exposed.
I am flexible, looking at various oil and gas, mining ETFs, and occasional pharma plays, but only for periods where I think I have a great entry price for a 99% upside probability in the short term.
Well, Glen, you were right about LPH.
Now that the cat is out of the bag, aside from the past associations of the players involved, what was your most critical clue?
Advice for when trading resumes:
Don't hang around waiting for a rebound, if the fraud is a gigantic as claimed, the trading resumption intraday chart will look like CCME. CCME had been halted at $11 in early March 2011, then it was announced they were being delisted and going to trade on the pink sheets on June 19, 2011.
The day trading resumed, there was some forced short covering premarket which led to a gain from $3 range to $4 range, but once the market opened, it just faded from $4.62 and kept dropping steadily until it hit $1.
BTDT.
I really feel bad for all the trapped longs.
Hope your position sizes were small.
Good luck and get back onto the horse.
Picture links invalid, delete post underneath.
The correct expression is "Mambo dogface" ... from Steve Martin.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Mambo%20dogface%20to%20the%20banana%20patch%3F