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Omnisat or Yazmi....doesn't matter for common shareholders in wrspq. If assets sold to either party, shares are worthless. Liberty must re-enter the game to save our shares. Let's hope that happens pdq.
the sats are being sold to try to leverage Liberty. It's all their assets (licenses as well) set to go to Samara at fire sale price. So, Liberty has to decide whether the money they've sunk in already (debt purchase and DIP financing) goes down the tubes (offset by the $5M they'd receive if asset sale happens), or, do they buy the company or assets to prevent the sale to Samara. This has nothing to do with DTV satellites. This is all about the spectrum licenses for Europe and Asia, which Worldspace owns, and what Liberty wants to do to get them. What I find a bit encouraging is that Liberty opposed the de-orbit plan. That signals the potential for a continued interest in wrspq infrastructure plus licenses...with the possible link to SIRI. If that's not dead, we may survive.
as an fyi: Deadline for Objections to Approval of Sale:
May 28, 2010 at 4:00 p.m.
so....if there's no objection filed by this Friday afternoon (by Liberty), it's most likely done, unless Noah Samara is attending John Malone's memorial day bbq in Colorado over the long weekend! A deal over bbq chicken and ribs, perhaps. (:
yeah, it might. depends on Liberty 100%. If they stay away, it's over. If they join the party, there's a shot it may work out for shareholders, but it is a super longshot right now. but, will be over and done with very soon, one way or the other.
We'll know pretty soon. Sell off and price close to zero doesn't really dictate the outcome, it just indicates reaction to the words 'asset sale' and the perceived likelihood that such an event will happen. Liberty may jump back in, resurrecting a deal which could preserve common shares, but, even a Liberty deal could wipe us out. I'm holding till it's over. Didn't bet enough to sell off, so I'll just wait to see what happpens over the next few days/weeks.
The june 1 hearing won't happen. Hearing date will be extended, or some type of deal will be done by then. Liberty can't afford to go to the hearing and lose. Because, once the order is entered, approving the asset sale, the deal will close with Samara quickly, and Liberty's investment circles the drain. The court will push to get this done, because wrspq is out of $, except for the downpayment received from Samara. Remember, Liberty's DIP financing and ownership of debt is with wrspq, so, if the assets are sold, all that remains for Liberty is a big stake in an empty, worthless, legal corporate entity of wrspq....and Liberty will be forced to take a lousy $5M, less short term operating expenses, in satisfaction of it's liens. That outcome is unlikely, but you never know. Liberty could just kick it loose and consider it an ill-conceived investment....or....do a deal with Samara separately once he owns the assets. That, of course, screws the common shareholders.
but....the scenario of Malone just kicking it loose is also possible, figuring he can get it from Samara in 6 months when he goes belly up, which he will. He keeps trying to sell ice to Eskimos, or, perhaps a better analogy, tries to open a mercedes dealership in Somalia. I don't think he gets it. Yeah, I know...sats have other uses than just streaming digital entertainment, but, there's not much money in Africa for any use. Liberty NOW is the key. Without that, we are out of gas on this stock.
MGTY...really? you expected a potential sale of assets to Samara? I sure didn't. I figured he was done after his last try at doing it, when he failed to deliver the money. But, I am liking a possible Liberty move. Liberty will probably try to simply oppose the motion first, as the company runs out of cash, and failing that, then try to negotiate terms to keep from letting it all go for a mere $5M.
yup jel2maine...me too. but, could work out if Liberty re-enters to block this BS sale for a lousy $5M.
I just read the whole court filing. It sure is confusing, but, unfortunately, the sale is for all their assets, which would be the licenses, hence, the statements about wrspq continuing to provide the expertise as part of a transition services agreement pending the new company getting regulatory approval.
On the other hand, it also says Liberty still owns the debt, so, Liberty could object to this because the most they can recoup would be the new $5M! Therefore, could be a tactic to get Liberty back in the game. The court could force Liberty to take the $5M or even less, so Liberty may outbid the Samara offer, etc. Samara, of course, in a way is on both sides of this. He could get his "company" back (the satellites and licenses, etc) on the cheap, or, force Liberty to buy it and keep common shares intact to his benefit. just sayin'.
this doesn't sound good. buying assets for a lousy $5.3M ? That sounds like liquidation to me. sorry guys. I sure could be, and hope to be, wrong. But......I don't see common stock surviving this. If the news said Samara buying Worldspace, and not worldspace assets, that would be good. But, it says assets. common shares are a liability. so, I think our shares are about to become 'electronic wallpaper'.
MGTY....my reason is the NOLs. They have value, and because the float is so low and SP near zero, it may be worth it to Malone to restructure wrspq and keep ownership intact to preserve NOLs. I don't think he cares about the satellites or any other hardware, just wants the spectrum licenses. Another factor, which is a guess, but consider this: if the spectrum licenses are with wrspq and the license agreements don't include survivability clauses (meaning they exist ONLY with the entity wrspq), then, Malone MUST keep the company intact to keep the licenses and the NOLs. That would be a huge factor here, but, I don't know anything about how these spectrum licenses are structured with the various gov'ts involved.
jel2maine...exactly! charts, etc, on a penny stock with such a tiny volume is meaningless. Charts have value when there are meaningful numbers, since it's all based on statistics. Stats are worthless when based on very small samples of data, and the volume of this stock fits that definition perfectly. We can all speculate based on anything we want, no harm done. But, c'mon, let's get real here: the only thing that means a damn thing is what Liberty does via BK Court. Nothing else matters or is an indicator of anything on this stock. I am still hopeful for a good outcome, but, I'm not hanging on based on charts, broken weblinks, or any of that stuff. sorry guys. I'm holding on because I do think it will work out, and my investment is pretty low, therefore, worth the risk. just sayin'. (:
MGTY....sorry, don't see what links on their website has to do with this. Links get broken all the time, especially on sites that are not maintained. If you look at the financial info that's been filed with the court, the payroll is pretty low. doubt anyone is working full time on their website. most of the info is very old. The only 'good news' re the website, is that it's still up and available, which means they're at least paying someone to host it (assuming they didn't pay an annual fee in advance).
You have made numerous mention of the black eyed peas....what do they have to do with any of this? sorry...don't get it. thanks.
mgty...huh? what's that link? no info there.
MGTY...I reviewed those financials quickly....not an accountant, so, I'm not going to comment on the assets, etc. However, in the list of expenses in one of the docs, there's a $55k payment to Intelsat the day after the court order was approved to permit de-orbit of the two satellites. Intelsat was named as the ones who would do the de-orbit work, and I recall the cost was around that amount, perhaps 80k, which would mean a downpayment of 55k to start the work, balance on completion. Part of wrspq leveraging Liberty back to the table? perhaps. The good news is that it's unlikely the sats have been decommissioned as of now, because that would be a material event and reportable, which has not yet happened.
I don't think courts hold hearings on saturdays. Only emergency stuff is handled by judges (like stays of execution...LOL....sorry, we're closed for the weekend, so hang 'em high!).
That would be nice....but.....look at the volume? It's immaterial with people buying 300 shares! That's $3. The price movement on this stock is totally meaningless at these volumes. As of now, volume is 10,000 shares....a lousy $100! If someone were to come in with 10,000 shares bid .05, he would find a seller of course, but so what? Share price would now be .05, and on paper, you would show a nice gain, but it's meaningless, because if you turned around and tried to sell even 100,000 shares at .05 ask, no one would buy it! I'm just saying, that without real news and very low volume, SP is not worth much, nor very informative as to what's happening behind the scenes. If volume picks up, that's different. just sayin'.
yup....agreed MGTY. Variety in opinion is always good, because not only is it interesting to hear what others think, even if you disagree, it spurs your own personal analysis to look deeper into issues.....of course, this excludes things said by Nancy Pelosi...I disagree with everything she says and can't stand the sight of her....LOL.... There are exceptions to every rule. (:
MGTY...thanks for the reference to 'beyond radio' on wrspq website. I don't see any game changers there..it's as I said earlier....yes, the sats are good for disseminating data...it's digital, so it can basically send anything. But, so what? That's nothing new. Problem has been there's no mass market for it in Africa, and India was ok, but wrspq had only around 250k subscribers, a mere grain of sand, and was unable to sustain itself. That's why Malone shut down India..it was losing $ and he didn't want to prop it up for a lousy 250k subscribers. Sucks, yes, but it's biz reality. Launching and running a sat infrastructure is pricey, and can only make money if service sold to millions of paying subs. SIRI has finally turned the corner with 18 million subs, but only breakeven as of last quarter. Quite an accomplishment, but, they have a ways to go before they become the cash machine everyone anticipates. Malone isn't impressed by the capabilities in 'beyond radio'. He wants the spectrum licenses and has designs on Europe, possibly China, India, and parts of Middle East,....Africa, not so much.
MGTY...true, the old sats have some value...could be used for a while by anyone with a need....but that's really not the issue with respect to restructure or Chapter 7 or licenses, NOLs, etc. My point is that the hardware is probably the least important of the above assets for Malone and Liberty (and SIRI). They are worth something....may fit nicely into the ultimate strategy, but they are not deal makers. While Liberty did object to wrspq's threat to decommission the sats, if you read the language of their objection, they were only objecting to statements made by wrspq and their process. They really didn't put up much of a fight. If those sats were that valuable, they would've appealed the BK judge's order. Should wrspq feel a need to play more hardball, and say they're going to sell the licenses to raise cash to retire debt....watch out! Liberty will fight that one all the way to the supreme court.
agreed jel2maine....all I care about is my investment in all of this...both in this dog and SIRI. I've done very well with SIRI, and I'm still hopeful on this one.
I see...got it...thanks.
bepop....sure...sats used for lots of stuff...weather, military, GPS for all, communications, TV, radio, etc. But, that technology is not new...been around for decades. If wrspq burned up both sats and a fire destroyed its 'new' sat in storage, it wouldn't matter.....Malone would still be involved, because he wants the spectrum licenses for Europe and Asia, and the NOLs. He doesn't care about the hardware as much. Sure, it has value, and if this works out, will most likely use it, but that's not the driver here. Everyone needs to realize that there is only ONE set of spectrum licenses in play for different regions controlled by various government entitiies. They can't be duplicated, or destroyed. They are owned by someone or the government who controls them. That's what has value. Satellites can be built. True, they are not cheap, but remember, wrspq's birds are very old, with only a few years of life left in them. Not a ton of value there, and, from an accounting point of view, probably close to fully depreciated. licenses and nol's folks. that's the key here...nothing else.
good article....take a look...although I'm not sure why the author thinks compatibility between XM technology and wrspq technology has such significant meaning. I see some value, but doesn't seem like a landmark fact to me.
http://www.benzinga.com/213260/the-dawn-of-a-new-media-era-as-defined-by-liberty%E2%80%99s-john-malone-and-sirius-xm%E2%80%99s-mel-karmazin
...and....I believe that Malone wants wrspq for only two things, which are finite and unavailable anywhere else in combination:
satellite broadcast spectrum licenses owned by wrspq + high NOLs of wrspq
The licenses are unique. If Malone doesn't get them, a competitor might, which would be bad news for his plans. The NOLs have value for any business he spawns off of wrspq using those licenses. If Malone can't get deal with wrspq on restructure and forces Ch 7, wrspq may as a scorched earth and preemptive strike...threaten to auction off the licenses....not a good outcome for Malone.
jel2maine.....I think MGTY is just saying he believes that Malone will keep wrspq intact (preserve common, restructure) because of the future of the technology, or at least that's one component of Malone's motivation, the NOLs another, etc. I don't agree that the technology is relevant, since it's not unique to wrspq, but that rationale is as good as any for believing the company will emerge from BK as a going concern.
MGTY....thanks for your comments, although I don't agree with respect to wrspq. Malone is a media guy. It is unlikely he has any interest in the things you mentioned (disease and other public service type stuff). I'm not a satellite engineer, but I don't think these sats are capable of doing what you are suggesting. Communication satellites already cover the globe, with Iridium and Globalstar and Immarsat, and probably others. These two worldspace sats are most likely meaningless in that sector. This is all about sat radio, one way communication (blast of digital signal carrying information, in this case entertainment, news, sports, talk shows, etc. Sure, they could also broadcast public service info, as I think you're suggesting, but there's no $ in that, other than selling that type of service to governments, but, in Africa? Despite the need there, who's going to pay for it? Who's going to pay to give the people there sat radio receivers or internet access? No one. Consider this...in order for public service info to have meaning, it has to go to most of the masses, not just a few million people. Sirius has over 18 million subscribers, hardly a dent in the US population from the public service point of view, but a nice sub base for making money in entertainment market. Just sayin'.
hmmm....MGTY...who will the customers be in Africa? I'm thinking subscriptions to individuals of course, but if you have other customers in mind...please expound on your thinking...
exactly. I've been saying that for months. And, I'm sure that's why wrspq is making the reorg negotiations tough, testing to see how far Malone will go to get those NOLs. Like I said earlier today....is he in this for pennies on the dollar when he bought the debt from original creditors, or did he buy it up for a much smaller discount? If he's in for pennies on the dollar, he won't hesitate to let it go to liquidation. If he's got a big number at stake, the NOLs may be worth a restructure and injection of sizeable working capital to keep it going.
yup...same here! when you are talking $, realism is the only thing that matters.....unless you actually win the Power Ball!
agreed jel2maine. it would respond as it did when Mel Karmazin made his public statement about SIRI, Liberty, and wrspq. The SIRI run up is typical of how this stock performs a few weeks prior to earnings or other anticipated news release. It typically gets a good run up, then retraces significantly right after the news. It really underscores the 'buy the rumor, sell the news' saying. It's like clockwork, everytime.
Another fact we should not forget.....Malone is in the driver's seat because he owns the most debt, having purchased it from the original creditors. We don't know how much he paid these creditors. That is a very significant number because it quantifies his investment and risk (plus the small amt of operating capital he has pumped in to date). So, let's say he paid $0.50 on the dollar for the debt....he would have a significant risk. But, if he paid less than .10 on the dollar, not so much. Why is this critical? Because, the lower his risk, the less likely he will continue negotiating with a view towards a restructure, and the more likely he will just let the thing go to Chapter 7, where he'll still get most of the assets (licenses!). If his risk is higher, he will not want to let it liquidate, because then he will potentially have overpaid for the assets. Just sayin'......my thinking on this.....but who knows!
no jel2maine, I don't. I recall hearing a number over $1B though. It's substantial. Samara lost a ton of $.....no kidding....sat radio subscriptions in Africa? what was he thinking? LOL.
While I'm in it to win it...to the bitter end if necessary, I don't think Malone is in this wrspq BK for anything but the licenses and the sats and associated equipment, and NOLs, of course. The Africa market is non-existent, worthless, and will be for a very long time (not a lot of economic progress or wealth there to support a large, paying subscription base). Europe, and parts of Asia (India & China mostly) are lucrative targets. Malone wants the wrspq infrastructure somewhat, but mostly the spectrum licenses, and, we hope the NOLs (so we live to fight another day). The 2 sats in orbit are old, nearing end of life. The one in storage requires refresh/updates, but has good value.
I'm holding as well.....till the bitter end, or, hopefully, a run up, betting Liberty will work out a restructure plan that will preserve the common in order to keep the NOLs. That's my story, and I'm sticking with it. I absolutely agree with the comments about bandwidth and the challenges posed by wifi or wiMax, especially as it relates to receiving a good, uninterrupted signal while on the go in a vehicle. SAT Radio is the only smart way to accomplish this. Just hope wrspq is part of the future as an intact entity and not scrapped for 'parts'.
Agreed. Malone has a vision. Let's hope it includes wrspq and common shareholders!
since the Karmazin public quote which caused interest in the stock. I never heard of it until then. I hold a lot of SIRI that's why it came to my attention, so I bought wrspq at that time. My investment isn't a lot of $, so I'll ride this thing out and see what happens. If the common is wiped out, I don't lose much, so it's worth it to be long. If I had a lot of $ in this, I'm not sure I would be as patient, or risk tolerant.
Not falling for what? It's a legal battle in court. There's no ruse here. Worldspace needs cash to operate the sats. They are out of cash very soon since they have no income and Liberty isn't lending any more $ (as of now...that could change, of course). So, they trying to leverage Liberty to do a deal or they will be de-orbiting the sats, or selling them. I'm thinking they stopped operating in India because the income from subs wasn't sufficient to pay the necessary staff to support it, and Liberty didn't want to pony up that kind of cash, month after month. They were willing to pump in only enough to keep a few corporate people, turnaround consultant, and the army of lawyers (all regularly filing court docs as they feed at the trough). We don't know what deal was on the table that obviously has fallen apart. Let's hope a restructure is still possible. The endgame is approaching.
Just read the court doc from Liberty. Interesting. I see a flaw in their argument. On the one hand, they say Worldspace doesn't own the sats (owned by Worldspace Satellite Inc, not in BK), and therefore can't abandon them. But, then they say that Worldspace must file a request with the court should they find a buyer for the sats. Hmmmmmm.....if you don't own 'em, and the owner is not in BK proceeding, which Liberty alleges, then why would Worldspace Satellite Inc have to request anything from the BK court? The other weird thing is the statement that Liberty doesn't object to de-orbit if that's what WRSPQ thinks they need to do as their only alternative. Plus, they disagree with wrspq's charcterization of the negotiations, but say they are withholding release of the way they see it for now. The only thing they really affirm is the fact that they are no longer going to pump $ into wrspq. Very strange stuff. The wednesday hearing will enlighten us to some of this, unless it's cancelled, as so many others have been. If cancelled, that's probably a good sign that they are talking again.