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I like your plan a lot.
It is just like Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year. You do not want them to be on the same day.
"I'd rather have it,
1) This upcoming Monday, blowout earnings
2) Next Monday, IBD top 10 announcement
3) Next Next Monday, dividend announcement "
CKGT/LTUS/JADA and many smaller caps are under performing right now. (LTUS: except a news driven run, it had not kept up with the market.)
My theory is that stocks are performing in waves. The first waves are strong stocks such as CCME, or stocks which used to be strong performers but were beaten by shorts. Examples include UTA, RINO, etc. They bounce back quickly because 1) they were noticed, and 2) the shorts have to cover.
The second waves belong to stocks in Sr. Exchange stocks. Many of those stock have good fundamentals but no publicity. Examples are YONG/BSPM/CELM/NEWN. All those stocks are "waken" up during the last few days.
IF the market continues to hold, the smaller stocks will benefit. CKGT/JADA/LTUS will all get their time under the sun.
UTA - Profit taking.
Taking myself as an example, the last time when short attacked, I took the opportunity to load up big time. It became the largest holdings in my accounts (until CCME went parabolic.) I sold my last shares today without even reading the article.
"UTA - are the sellers really falling for this sh*t (again) or is it just people who are scared and were forced into some profit-taking???"
On the other hand, I would buy back the shares if the stock dips further.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=55182307
Money is flowing into CGS space like flood
What we see this week is a reversal of June/August time frame. When money is flowing into CGS space like flood. it is fruitless to fight the trend .
I am moving money around though. Locked some profits and rotate into less expanded stocks. Reduced my weight in CCME (50% of my portfolio at one time, now 30%). Sold my last shares of KNDI and UTA for CELM/BSPM/CGPI. Put in some low bid for CKGT - no hurry here but it could be a good December play if the market holds.
All the options I bought during last two days are up nicely.
Now I am thinking about adding CKGT.
My theory is that if big supporter like you got fed up, the stock must be at the bottom. Contrarian side of me starts taking over...
Can you post Rev Shark's piece today? Thanks.
YONG - 8.95, up 3.59%
Really like YONG's price action.
This is a story stock that can go much higher. The price was depressed due to short and previous dilutions. Both those conditions are gone.
Right industry (Remember Potash? Even Chinese firms are interested buying it.) No more dilution. Ever expanding YONGE branded stores. Ag as a focus by Chinese government. Expanding margins. Increasing food (and fertilizers) prices.
ZSTN - Axler,
It is difficult to put any premium to Axler.
He was forced to start his hedge funds (after he got fired.) Due to his youth (and his lack of connection/insights,) the size of the funds must be very small.
His overall performance is lousy. His performance in 2009 is a whopping 2%. It is way below the market. Almost everyone on this boards is 100x better last year (at least the portion of Chinese stocks.) He is down up to April this year, and probably down so far for the year.
Now about his individual selections: his conviction buy for 2010 LGDI, of which he owns a lot, is down 30% for the year. His started shorting ZSTN at Sept 20, and is deep in the water (down 30% before his second hit piece yesterday).
There are two ways to savage Axler career: One is to transfer all his funds into a S&P index ETF. Another option for him is to use Wall Street Journal's monkey throwing darts stock selection methods. CLICK HERE. Both would dramatically improve his performance.
CCME Chart - Just one word:
Beautiful.
CCME - my Nov 18 options are looking reallllllyyyy good.
CCME - no pull back even after 18:20. The next rest stop is at 22.20.
"CCME not looking for a pullback till 18.00-18.20... IMHO....HOPE SO...What do you think??"
Agree with your analysis.
I do think that while trader shorts have covered their positions, the core shorts (those with big positions) have not done so en mass yet. If they do, the stock will be in 20s.
Some shorts may be waiting for their chances - weakness in Shanghai market (inflation fear), weakness in US market (disappointing QE2), potential disappointment in earning, etc.
However, the time is not on their side. The pressure is building on them each passing day. Today might be the day that the increasing fear factor is becoming so huge, that they have to start the real covering.
I am enjoying the process of their capitulation.
Welcome on board.
You have definitely populated your portfolio with short-proof positions. Look like you are not afraid of the shorts at all.
"Main positions: Long UTA, CCME, CHBT, CAGC, and now ZSTN (loaded up this morning)."
Welcome on board.
You have definitely populated your portfolio with short-proof positions. Look like you are not afraid of the shorts at all.
"Main positions: Long UTA, CCME, CHBT, CAGC, and now ZSTN (loaded up this morning)."
Does that suggest the short start covering?
If so, CCME can go much higher.
"UBS heavy on the BID this morning.
If you remember, they were heavy on the ASK side when the shorts jumped on board at $ 12 and pounded us down the the $ 8s. "
SBAY - cloud computing
That's hilarious.
"SBAY: I think it has something to do with computers controlling some humidifiers and creating clouds. Some pretty advanced and exciting stuff! What I want to know is how do they protect their electronics from the rain?!? "
PS. For those who actually want to learn in addition to laughing, here is the link for an introduction:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing
ZSTN - Just glanced through the SA article and paid special interests to the comments section.
Per comment, the author shorted the stock on Sept 20, and the stock went up 30% since then. Also, the guy's fund had a miserable performance of 2% last year and -7% to April this year. Last year was a banner year for US market and I believe most of us had outsized returns and many are 100x (literally) better.
It would be better not to follow his recommendations (or the lack of it) in ZSTN.
Disclosure - No position in ZSTN.
SBAY - Interesting.
BTW, Google.com is worthy a handsome sum of $197m (and Baidu.com is worthy $186m.) I think Barring, the PE firm that is taking HRBN private, should be buying google.com or Baidu.com instead. They could resale them to other PE firms for billions.
http://www.trendscape.com/site/google.com
YONG - Gross margin could be improved in two directions.
1) Ignite Mine
2) Less middle man in distribution to YONG branded stores.
CCME - Short squeeze
Wonder if a short squeeze could be triggered by China Macros, including good PMI and Shanghai composite (up strongly).
We always thinking about a short squeeze due to company's earning, or divi. A short squeeze from a macro environment would be really nice.
CCME - Short squeeze
Wonder if a short squeeze could be triggered by China Macros, including good PMI and Shanghai composite (up strongly).
We always thinking about a short squeeze due to company's earning, or divi. A short squeeze from a macro environment would be really nice.
BORN Little
I downloaded and read through the "contract" per Mr. Little's link. There are two documents per Little's link, one Chinese and another the English translation of the Chinese version.
Unlike what Mr. Little described in his blog, the so called "contract" is not the actual contract at all.
The document is from Wantong Machinery, which could be bidding BORN's project. It is kind of document that you normally find in an early stage of bidding, but could become a attachment in the final bidding package.
There is no indication that BORN had awarded the contract to this company.
In addition, I am trying to figure out if the machine described within the document (the "contract") could be a pre-processor for what BORN is doing, not necessarily a replacement for BORN's existing machines.
I have no position in BORN, and do not plan to go long or short until BORN is below its pre-October level (less than 8). Just want to check how much meat Little brings to the table.
PS. Link to the documents
http://cid-5a008536448fa3aa.office.live.com/browse.aspx/Borun
BORN LITTLE
Other posters on this board suggested that LITTLE is a paid basher, judging from the timing of his SA piece and the pps movement yesterday. Have you considered that when you talk about liking the guy?
Also, it is earning season, and company may be in blackout period, could that explain the silence from the company?
"As for Little, what I like about him in comparison with other shorts is that he's not short the name."
CCME - Short
I think what you say is true, there could be some short covering on Oct 14 and 15 which was not reflected on the table. But my guess is that the covering is minimal for the following reasons:
1) Shorts are very persistent in CCME: If you look into the historic price table (or stockcharts), the shorts were very persistent. After the stock buy back announcement, the short, instead of covering, actually increased their short position between 9/15 and 9/30.
2) The tide turned way before Oct 13, the smart short could have covered at a low price, but they choose not to do so judging from the data.
3) On broad Chinese small caps space, the shorts had not covered over the period. For example, RINO's short interests remain roughly the same between 9/30 and 10/15 in spite of significant up swing in share prices. Same for HRBN, even after the CEO's offer cash buyback at $24.
4) New shorts after Oct 15 reduce the effects of covering during Oct 14/15. You can "read" from the price action starting from Oct 16 that there are mini shorts attacks on CCME. I can "feel" that last Friday, Oct 22, the shorts are all over the place to drive the stock safely under $15 - there could be a small chance that CCME makes IBD if above 15 last week.
OT - Bullet Train
Wondering if any of the Chinese small caps (in addition to HRBN) is involved in the high speed train projects.
---
High speed train on a new high-speed railway linking Shanghai with Hangzhou, China. Shanghai-Hangzhou high-speed railway start the operation Tuesday. The trip will take 45 minutes. The train -- China-made CRH380 -- can reach speeds of 262 mph, which is a world speed record.
AP photo below:
HRBN - No short covering after CEO/PE buy-out offer.
That explains the attack on the stock by "Shorting Alpha".
---HRBN's short interests
Note - CEO's offer announced at 10/11.
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
10/15/2010 4,392,816 1,043,224 4.210808
9/30/2010 4,318,294 363,878 11.867423
9/15/2010 4,098,027 214,734 19.084202
8/31/2010 4,024,386 202,358 19.887457
8/13/2010 3,845,511 299,417 12.843329
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=HRBN&symbol=UTA&symbol=CCME&selected=HRBN#ixzz13VAr95m8
CCME - High short interests as of 10/15.
Still 4,391,637, still 50% float in short. This is great news. The stock have no place to go but up.
The previous run up was driving by:
1) CCME buy back (not sure how much but probably mostly under 10.)
2) Institutional buys.
Now any good news (earning, dividend, additional institution buy) will trigger the actual squeeze. No wonder the short was hard at work last Friday to keep CCME under 15 - they are worry about the IBD listing over the weekend.
CCME - trying to understand what drives this sudden surge.
Could be one of the following:
1) Short starting to cover in anticipation of Short Interest report today,
2) Institution buying before next earning, or
3) News leaking? (earning, divi, ...)
Whatever the reason, the PUT option I sold Friday(meaning I am long) looks mighty good today.
Short interests reporting schedule - today is the report date.
I am watching CCME HRBN UTA and a few other stocks.
Short Interest Data Release Schedule
2010 NYSE® AMEX® NASDAQ®BB/Pink®
October A 11 11 11 11
October B 26 26 26 26
November A 9 9 9 9
November B 24 24 24 24
December A 9 9 9 9
....
http://shortsqueeze.com/data-release.php
Hold it, hold ...
I am still accumulating/buy back some shares I sold last week.. Do not blast so fast.
Sorry to hear it. I think SEC is unfair here. Wonder if SEC still cancels the trade if NEP dips under $1 yesterday?
HRBN - I bought 1k shares at 20.87, with two other orders if it dips below $20.
YHGG - Land use rights
It is true that land use rights are considered intangible from accounting perspective. But in fact they are tangible assets, more so than the other tangible assets such as plants and equipments.
1) Due to the Chinese law, nobody except governments own the land. The holders of land use rights are therefore considered the owners of the land for all practical intent and purposes.
2) In China, the land use rights are treated as tangible property that can be auctioned, purchased, and transferred, and are frequently used as collateral for bank loans. Banks actually prefer land use rights than other collaterals since "land does not have legs and can not walk away".
3) Since land is very scarce resource, there will be no shortage of buyers who are willing to pay premium for the land use rights.
Should YHGG go bankrupt today, I can bet you that the company would have no problem finding buyers for its land use rights, often with a premium over cost. I can not say the same for tangible assets such as equipments and plants.
YHGG's land use rights = 958M, its market cap = 327M. The auction of land use rights alone would pay 3x of current PPS.
PS. China adopts dual land tenure system under which land ownership is independent of land use rights. ALL of Chinese land are either owned by the state ("State Land") or by rural collective economic organization ("Collective Land"). The land use rights are auctioned off at high premiums every year.
YHGG - Intangible assets
YHGG's intangible assets are actually very tangible. They consists of the land use rights for 250K acres of arable land.
Anybody who have been in China knows that the land use right is a very valuable commodity in China, and can be transferred with significant premium over the "cost".
According to 10K, Page F8:
"k)Intangible assets
Intangible assets consist of land use rights and are recorded at cost. Under PRC’s current property rights regime, use rights for specified periods (e.g., 40 to 70 years) can be obtained from the state through the up-front payment of land use fees. The fees are determined by the location, type and density of the proposed development. This separation of land ownership and use rights allows the trading of land use rights while maintaining state ownership of land. The Company has over 250,000 acres of arable land that are utilized for grazing, cultivation, and reclamation, of which 50,000 acres are under cultivation using the latest scientific technologies to produce a wide variety of agricultural products."
Great Result from BIDU.
Baidu's net profit rose 112.4 percent year-on-year to US$156.4 million. Excluding expenses for employees' stock-based compensation, the company earned 46 cents per share. Analysts had expected 42 cents per share.
So:
BIDU 46 cents vs. CCME 84 cents per share
PPS $102 vs. PPS $15.
Half the earning, 7 times PPS. Who said life is fair.
----
Baidu's Profits Grow as Google's Search Share Falls in China
China's largest search engine, Baidu, doubled its net profit in the third quarter as it continued to take market share from Google.
Baidu's net profit rose 112.4 percent year-on-year to US$156.4 million. The positive earnings were the result of the company's efforts to expand its customers base, as well as improvements made to its online marketing system, said Baidu CEO Robin Li during a conference call on Friday morning. Revenue rose 76.4 percent to $337.2 million.
Baidu won a 73 percent share of the Chinese search market in the third quarter, up from 70 percent previously and a new high according to Beijing-based research firm Analysys International.
...
Profits of China's SOEs up 46% in 1st 9 months: figures
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-10-20 09:05
BEIJING - Profits of China's State-owned enterprises (SOEs) hit 1.44 trillion yuan ($216.4 billion) in the first nine months, up 46.2 percent year-on-year, figures released Tuesday by the Ministry of Finance show.
Combined profits of China's SOEs grew 6.8 percent in September compared to August, according to a statement from the ministry.
Business revenue totaled 21.9 trillion yuan in the period, up 35.3 percent from a year earlier. The figure for September alone was 5 percent higher than the August level.
In the first nine months, the SOEs paid 1.83 trillion yuan in taxes, up 23.9 percent year-on-year, the statement said.
Steel, machinery, tobacco, construction and real estate, and building materials sectors saw profits rise month on month in September.
However, sectors including petrochemicals and transport saw profits decline, the statement said, without providing more details.
China's SOEs include SOEs directly controlled by the central government and SOEs supervised by local governments, but exclude state-owned financial enterprises.
Sure, after 1-to-4 split, UTA will be in mid-4s.
What happened to your prediction of CCME going to 3?
I do see you could be right if CCME is doing a 1-to-10 split at the end of year.
UTA - Short covering in progress?
PPS suddenly surges to 5.4 from 5.2.
XING - over 500K traded, up 15% PM