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Internet index now back at early Aprils low!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$IIX,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dc][p][vc60]
KD
Re: My portfolio now sadly resembles...
I think with JDSU and JNPR in it, you can at least say you have a portfolio with future potential...
There are a lot of other stocks out there where even the companies themselves are beginning to ask questions about the viability of their own business model. Be happy if you're not in them!.
Noone questions JDSU and JNPRs future survival (...yet...knock on wood...) and there are a number of other companies that still look very interesting and in fact increasingly attractive, IMO...
First of all, the companies that still manage to produce a positive balance sheet, such as exactly JNPR, such as EMC, NTAP, ORCL, SUNW,... MSFT of course, .... a couple of small players like AFCI (look at their P/E...) a local Canadian EXFO, which has a high P/E but also a high momentary growthrate...
Tail up! (would have said chin up... but dogs don't really have any, do they?...). Nothing lasts forever, including downturns (but I'm less inclined to think there's about to come a "Mother of all buying opportunities". Perhaps rather some local hotspots with a relatively high activity).
KD
Tea leaves and market contradictions
Merrill Lynch et al have been out, lately, suggesting that the market has bottomed, is stabilizing and getting ready for a bull run...
The Nasdaq chart would suggest something entirely different:
Being in down-mode, it has, lately, been forming a chart pattern known as a descending triangle (visualized here by a horizontal line and the 120 day moving average to visualize the descending resistance line of the triangle)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dc][pb120!a1960][vc60]
Charts are nothing more than mood indicators and a 1/4 or 1/2% interest rate cut can easily break both negative mood and chart pattern real soon.
If it doesn't, however, a Nasdaq breakdown and a possible retest of the 1600 low could be in the waiting in the near future...
KD
Description of descending triangles:
http://stockcharts.com/education/What/ChartAnalysis/triangle-Descending.html
Re Bailey...
Who understands chartreading anyways... (except Merril Lynch... I was shocked to hear their analyst on TV argue for their resent upgrade on semiconductors "We vere reading the charts and as it became clear that they likely weren't going to retest the lows of early April, so we found it opportune to upgrade them..."
What the hell kinda crap is that?... Is the upgrade based on a sound evaluation or on Meme's tea leaves?
As for the stocks mentioned, I (mostly) follow these days. The ones I betted the most on a while back when I re-entered, both disappointed and guided down (warned) and I cleaned them out as fast as I could... which was good the same (They were ITWO and INSP...) I was choosing between 6 candidates. The others were ELON, BRCM, EXTR and JDSU (I AM trying to secondguess its bottom, too...).
I have no regrets that I dumped ITWO and INSP and I'm considering waiting untill the market breaks through and stabilizes above the (typically trendsetting) 100 day moving average. It will loose me the start of the next runup, but it'll save me the trouble of secondguessing the bottom and loosing every time I try (I've tried to secondguess bottoms since Nov. last year and have lost plenty on buying in early and not selling out again when the bottom didn't form).
The only one I have had any luck with, predicting highs and lows in quick succession is INSP, because its up and down cycles were so forseable that buying at local bottoms and selling at what revealed itself as local highs. But that, again, involved following the stock every day and buying or selling it at least once a week...
The experience made me realize that I can never become a short and never become a daytrader. I don't have the patience for it in the long run and it disturbs my concentration to have to focus so much on stock traading... I have a real job to take care of, too (not to mention a family...) so I gave it up again relatively quickly (before moving transatlantic in the spring...).
Having said that, don't be surprised if I don't listen to my own advise and buy into JDSU or NT or JNPR next week, because I suddenly desided they look attractive to me...
KD
(Headlines of one of the newspapers up here, yesterday, was about a psycologist working on Wall Street, making a case study on clinical manifestations of manic depression amongst stock brokers and analysts...
...Am I surprised to hear it?...)
Bailey - Market comparison
Biotech, over the last 3 years:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BTK,uu[h,a]daclyymy[df][pb30!b100][vc60]<i
Internet, over the last 3 years:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=IIX,uu[h,a]daclyymy[df][pb30!b100][vc60]<i
To illustrate my point about the Nasdaq, who's holding it up and who's draging it down...
Internet, internet service, B2B, broadband and communications stocks are (with significant variations between individual stocks, but never the less-) still in strong correction mode.
I'm not calling the bottom in this market until I see it...
Amongst the ones bucking the trend at the moment and may have bottomed out (of the ones I track), one may count:
BRCM:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=BRCM,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dd][pb30!b100][vc60]
INTC:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=INTC,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dd][pb30!b100][vc60]
QCOM:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QCOM,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dd][pb30!b100][vc60]
DELL:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=DELL,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dd][pb30!b100][vc60]
ELON:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ELON,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dd][pb30!b100][vc60]
NETA:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NETA,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dd][pb30!b100][vc60]
Soon to be joined by SUNW?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=DELL,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dd][pb30!b100][vc60]
And/or EXTR?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=EXTR,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dd][pb30!b100][vc60]
VRSN, perhaps?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=VRSN,uu[h,a]daclyymy[dd][pb30!b100][vc60]
The rest of what I track look downright awfull...
Anyone has something else that looks nice, I'd love to see it...
KD
Bailey
The thing is that the Nasdaq is giving a distorted picture of the techstocks.
If you look at the internet index, it isn't far above the early April low.
What has been keeping the Nasdaq up, is the biotech issues, which, short of having held their ground, has outperformed the communications-, software- and internet stocks significantly. (in fact, the biotech index(es) are above the level of the initial slump of the Nasdaq of April-May 2000. (Remember the prices of the likes of JDSU and JNPR, then?)
KD
Well, Baily
For a JDSU that has closed above its 20 day moving average on two trading days since late May and a JNPR that is retesting new lows today... Those ARE pretty gutsy calls...
If the market bottoms out today, the Nasdaq chart will, however, formed a text book (in fact marvelously pretty) triple bottom... That said, of course, after it had formed an equally pretty text book double bottom and is tanking again, so what do I know anymore (as if I ever did in the first place)...
BTW. I saw some numbers (Nielsen ratings or something...) a couple of weeks ago (following my Nemesis INSP stock). It appeared that DIG is now tempting a place at 11th spot... and under heavy comp from others underneath it...
Gotta hand it to Eisner. When Disney runs something into the ground, they don't give up on the half way! They get the job done thoroughly and with dedication! <G>
The way my go-mail works, these days, it looks like even I will have to look for an alternative private mail address (I'm now finally getting a university one... after waiting half a year... University administrators sure aren't working their butts off here in Montreal! Why do today what you can get somkeone else to do tomorrow... or next month.
I thought "Mañana" mentality was Spanish... Well, Quebecers can out-mañana any Spaniard any day, I tell you!
I'm on temporary "advance payment" still... Since March, the University salary administration has not yet managed to run my file through the system and get me on regular payment... So I get my biweekly paycheck with a sum of money that they think is representative of what I eventually should get as ordinary salary... mañana...
"I'll call your mañana and raise you by a further two"<G>
KD
Re: JDSU and other stock comments ...
I fundamentally agree with your judgement.
I don't call the bottom just yet, though. The resistance at $10 is strong and if it bounces back down from that again, it may drift lower, slowly.
If it breaks thru $10, I'll buy instantaneously...
I believe you could be right about JNPR, but they don't have the technological lead they once had. (Many analysts have been suspecting that they would slowly outcompete CSCO with this superiority, but CSCO has slowly fought their way back. Add to that, that CSCO has a much superior customer service - a thing that JNPR practically doesn't have at all, pissing off a lot of its customers (this is all gossip, but I have it from a friend that I met back in Germany and that I trust... He is a senior technical engineer at... Alcatel...!)
KD
Re: Baileybear
I honestly feel JDSU could be a $60-$70 stock in a couple of years. Anyone else feel as strong?
Sure, Bailey! To me, the question is entirely "how cheap will I get it in the meantime"!
With my bank favoring me trading Canadian stocks over US ones, I'm looking harder and harder into JDSU and NT. Both will come back and both are so beaten up (eh... down) by both investors and newsmedia "up here" that things can't get much worse.
Both have been declining steeply and once the steep decline is over, I'll be in (after my aborted attempts at INSP and ITWO who both surprised negatively and are in trouble of some other sort than that of JDSU and NT. Both INSP and ITWO are themselves now questioning their own business models... Hell, if they're questioning it, what am I supposed to do?... I sold within minutes and that saved me a ton of money!
I have no doubts tied to the business model of JDSU and NT. For them, it's a matter of waiting for a turnaround in the market and in the market sentiment, rather than waiting for a good idea to a new direction to salvation that may or may not materialize...).
KD
Fibreless Glut?... (same theme)
http://www.wirelessnetworksonline.com/content/news/article.asp?DocID={3AEF5C4B-6FE6-11D5-A772-00D0B7....
KD
(oops - now the link won't work properly... See if you can open the title "International internet and cellular telephone use ...")
Anyone else wanna have a swing at him?
lol.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20010720&ID=...
KD
Oh, Meme - your ELON looks real pretty-
from here.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ELON,uu[h,a]daclyymy[pb50!b100][vc60]
It's one of the nicest looking charts on the Nasdaq at the moment! Congrats!
KD
Meme Re JDSU:
The talk of the town for quite a while now, is that the fibre highways are overdone. The demise of 360 Network was (here in Canada) attributed to this point (they came too late to a market that is dumping prices due to too high capacity).
The latest predictions (of today) from CSFB suggest that a recovery can't be expected untill second half of 2002
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.asp?Feed=Bcom&Date=20010713&ID=921220&Sy...
This, after a recovery was first predicted around second half of this year and then delayed to first half of next year...
This prediction will apply for all thye big players involved in broadband: LU, NT, JDSU, GLW, ALA, CSCO, JNPR, LVLT... some of whom may not make it to ever experience the awaited turnaround (in particular not if it'll really take untill second half of 2002 before progress sets in).
I have no immediate plans of entering this field for now...
...But what, out there, is any better?
The negative comments heard previously for broadband is now being repeated for wireless... MOT, ERICY, NOK... They are expected to revise their expectations downwards for the second half of the year (MOT did it already). Can we predict who'll be next in line? a BRCM perhaps? (Although I must say that BRCM's chart looks more and more attractive by the day! It appears set to stabilize above its 100 day moving average. If it's there, after earnings, it may well be my next buy...)
In the meantime, analysts are also focusing their bearish comments on computer companies. If a delay is to be expected in the market recovery for them -CPQ, DELL, IBM, AAPL (AAPL just discontinued their "cube" - couldn't sell enough of them) we may assume that the semiconductor sector by default will see growth delayed as well (AMD, INTC, MU, AMAT...).
Leaving what... Software? Perhaps...
MSFT sounds bullish - ORCL, too. Both have bottomed, -stabilized and is advancing on the Nasdaq at the moment. SEBL may - MAY - have done it, too...
Will the rest follow through? So far, companies/stocks like SAP and ITWO appear to follow the Nasdaq and are not in a mood to advance.
KD
Goes to show MSFT's influence on the market
MOT de-facto warned, yesterday. YHOO beat its own downwards revised expectations, but confirmed what I'd call a pretty bleak result (revenue dropped by a third from last years - a major contraction in my book).
But look what a positive note from MSFT can do to a market! WOW!
The words "The resession began with MSFT and it'll end with it, too" take on more meaning by the day...
A note this morning from a market analyst (James Volk of D.A. Davidson), commenting on yesterday's downturn and todays upturn:
"You have this manic-depressive attitude"...
Oh - for a sec there, I thought it was just me <G>
KD
Re: (FWIW) Chartreading
Actually, Dick, I agree with you. But having lost a fair amount of my gains on the way "down", I'm slightly less than content with the idea of buying 800 pound gorillas just for being that... Being a gorilla and a longterm winner doesn't mean the stockprice has seen the bottom yet.
There's been a lot of falling knives, lately, also of stocks I considered 800 pound gorillas. Some of them may not survive (weighing in at 800 pounds doesn't guarantee survival - it just means the dust will fly higher when the hit the floor as they die. Think of EXDS or LU - I don't guarantee their survival, -not even that someone will throw them a lifeline (buy them up).
My aim is to foresee the bottom, the best way I can... So far, analysts have shown little trustworthiness when it comes to advice.
As for market sentiment, the easy way out would be to simply sit down and wait for the Nasdaq to head North. I may indeed end up doing just that... It won't get me in on the first floor, but I may at least have a chance of figuring out if the elevator I enter is going down or up (A few of those I've watched jump on the elevator on the "first floor" resently, have ended up in the basement and may be heading still further down to the underground garage...)
KD
Re: (FWIW) Chartreading
So much for predicting market sentiments.
Inventories went up last months, Corning warned last night and market expectations of today are that wireless will have to wait another year for a rebound (like previously predicted for fibreoptics).
Now, the immediate question has returned to "will the Nasdaq bounce off of the 2000 mark?" If not, I don't believe there's much resistance at 1970 either and we're looking at 1850... according to the charts... if you believe them... ("so much for predicting market sentiments").
KD
(FWIW) Chartreading: Bullish Harami for BRCM
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=BRCM,uu[h,a]daclyymy[pb50!b100][vc60]
Dark candle body of Friday, completely encompasses the (so far) white candle of today.
Interestingly, the potentially bullish pattern is establishing itself with the 50 day moving average as support.
A Bullish Harami type pattern is also observed for BRCD, today:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=BRCD,uu[h,a]daclyymy[pb50!b100][vc60]
KD
Impressive number of warnings, this week.
- And ITWO did it again... This is the third time this company has been downgraded within 3 days after I bought it...
I got rid of it, this time though. For some obscure reason it didn't really fall on the day of the downgrade (day after warning) so I got rid of it at practically the price I paid (day before Independence Day).
Now, it sinks like a stone...
Next time, I'll promise to post the following, before I buy:
WARNING! WARNING! WARNING!
I'M ABOUT TO BUY ITWO!
I'M HEREBY GIVING YOU TWO HOURS ADVANCE NOTICE!
IF YOU HAVEN'T SOLD OR SHORTED BEFORE THEN IT'S YOUR OWN FAULT <G>
KD
Re: LOL Meme - (update)
The earth revolves:
"ORCL has broken through the resistance of its 100 day moving average, but so far, few have followed suit... SEBL has done it"
So has now BRCD, BRCM, EXTR, INTC, AMD, MU, MOT and YHOO.
Needless to add that MSFT has support of its 100 day average,below - it's had it for almost 3 months now, -even longer than ELON.
CSCO was eroniously categorized with the laggards. It belongs in the category of 100 day resistance struggling candidates like ITWO, QCOM, OPWV and INSP (all within 5-10% from a break)
KD
"Wireless Operators' results seen solid"
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20010629&ID=...
Need to add...
That today we'll apparently also see BRCM break out to the upside of both its 50 and 100 day moving average.
KD
Oh, and Meme...
I was absolutely taken by a small comment from the MSFT board yesterday... A poster there said (inter alia):
"This tech bear market started with the Microsoft court case. It will end with it, too"
Whereas that's ascribing more power of MSFT to the tech market than can hold water, the statement in its profetic appearence hit me to an extend where I desided that my waiting is over and I have mounted the horse again and joined the market:
Today is a good day to ride!
KD
I hope... I mean... I think....eeerh... HEY!... SOMEONE GET ME A HORSE THAT'LL MOVE!... OH NO!... I MEAN IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION... NOT THAT ONE.... oh, for chrissake...
LOL, Meme - you're absolutely right!
Thing is I was just about to as you in my "Tech Wrech" bit about if you were pleased over ELON's performance lately.
The thing is (check it anyone who likes) that the price developments of the larger or hotter names is in the balance still:
ORCL has broken through the resistance of its 100 day moving average, but so far, few have followed suit... SEBL has done it, -ITWO, EXTR, INSP and many others are damn close, but not quite there yet and others still (resent downgraders like JDSU, NT, JNPR, CSCO, CIEN) are still far below their 100 day moving average.
The one tech stock (outside biotech) I can clearly point out as having broken through the 100 day average and now has regained this trendline as support rather than resistance is - you guessed it - ELON.
I think ELON is an excellent play for the moment. As others may stabilize above their 100 day average, they'll join the club (I'm hoping intensely for ORCL).
Good luck, Meme and anyone else playing ELON.
KD
(Oh dear - I'll rush to wish good luck to those that don't play ELON, too...).
Re: Tech wreck
the first rate cut came in January. Six months is up
- And the Nasdaq may take a peek at the upside of its 100 day moving average today. With the exception of two failed attempts at it resently, this hasn't been seen since August of last year, just before the "big crunch".
(As if anyone cares anymore... The Nasdaq chart also predicted a drop resently by a head-and-shoulder formation... I'm still waiting for that 1800 mark it predicted. I may never see it...)
KD
PS. The first tech analyst has begun upgrading broadband by reinstalling JDSU as a "strong buy" and NT as a 'buy" with words like "they have now finally seen prices where a call for upside potential can be justified. We suggest they might double over the next twelve months" (from last Saturday's Toronto based "Globe & Mail") (The same analyst reiterated CSCO as "hold")
Yo, rolling!...
Hey, congratulations on your JDSU buy. I'm still trying to muster some courage... Say, can I borrow your spine for a minute? <G> -And how about a little cash, too? (Nah, money is not the problem - sheer guts is what is failing me, these days...). Thing is, my cowardice has saved me a lot of money so far. (I can still see myself buying my old mistress, EXDS, back two weeks ago. The same goes for NT and JDSU...
I've run so scared of this, that I've been inclined to reinvest entirely in biotechs... Then came the Tessera Diagnostic insident... Now, all I do is watch and bite nails...
KD
[KD] "Nasdaq, get a grip!"
[Nasdaq] "Kurt, get one yourself!"
Tellabs warned
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&gui...
And what a warning.... WOOOF! (xcuse me, Daisy...)
KD
It's a complicated world, harry.
Noone doubts the internet is here to stay, but that doesn't change the fact that some (many) of the present internet companies carry a heavy burden of expensive debt from what now seems to be over-investments in a temporarily saturated market.
Much of EXDS' problems are selfinflicted by their rapid expansion. The company could have been in green, but has desidedly invested aggressively in expansion at the expence of the bottom line.
How many of their customers they're hosting will cave in? I have no idea, but I gather that a good deal of its customer basis are to be found among now collapsing internet startups. Add to that that few new customers come along (because newbies in this field at the moment is pretty much restricted to "old economy" going on-line), the question is whether EXDS can sustain itself in the long run or wether they'll collaps and give way to a new hosting company with no debt and a sounder business model...
In other words: EXDS has necome cheap, but is it a good buy?
I don't see a clearcut answer to the question for now...
BTW, regarding 360 Network who seems to be collapsing:
Accoding to the Canadian newspaper "Golbe and Mail" , one of 360 Networks prime customers, Teleglobe Inc. has opted for contracts now with Williams Communications Group Inc. and Broadwing Inc.
It is customer loss of this kind (the newspaper speculate) that together with too agressive investments in broadband fibrecabels beyond what their customer basis requires, is toppling 360 Network at the moment.
KD
Today, this news came....
at a price of 44% down:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010618/n1828245.html
Seldom have I seen a stock get killed so dramatically and I think the sign is that the bottom of the wireless broadband industry hasn't been seen yet.
In category with WMUX, you'll find all-but-dead ADAP who lost 33% today and is already de-listed from the Nasdaq.
KD
Always thought "reverse stocksplit" was a joke...
Apparently it isn't!
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nf/20010618/tc/11306_1.html
Not that it'll save them from chapter 11 before the end of the year (IMO).
KD
Anyone seen EXDS today?
I'll admit that has me tempted to run to my broker right away. That one really has been hurt big time... and then 22% down in one day...
Being the stock I have the highest net gain from (sold close to the top) it's tempting to try ones luck again... I'll wait it out a bit longer, just the same, -an old darling of mine or not.
FWIW: Some market analysts are speculating we're heading for a new test of the Nasdaq low of the 1650 in the immediate future.
The bearish head and shoulder formation of the Nasdaq, however, has a rule of thumb: It'll bottom at a distance down from the old support equal to the distance between the old supportline and the top of the "head" of the formation.
This would suggest that the "local" low the Nasdaq is heading for should be around 1800, - give or take...
It does not hint at a new retest of the ultimate Nasdaq low in the short term (and the market does not look panicish to me).
KD
Re: FWIW (Chartreading)
It's pretty hard to find a tech stock that isn't a buy at these prices (except maybe Lucent).
...Or except 360Network (who's about to file a chapter 11) or except...[insert name]...
A lot of companies will not survive so see the light at the end of this tunnel - no more so than in the broadband business.
There was an article in one of the Canadian newspapers on 360Network and it was certainly interesting. They did mention who's gaining on 360's downfall (who been gobbling up their customers at the moment). I'll try to find the article at home and provide names of those companies (it was two, as I remember), since they might be interesting names for future consideration...
KD
FWIW (Chartreading)
(With the reliability of Memes tea leaves) Crashing through the horizontal support of around 2050, after a head-and-shoulder formation, should have us see a quick and furious drop, followed by an immediate rebound back to test the 2050 level (which should fail) and then back down again...
Do I begin to sound depressing? I'm just looking for the right re-entry point... I realize that brainwork won't do that alone (maybe it will, but not MY brainwork <G>) - so I resort to fortune telling...
Yo Dave! - WAZZUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUPP... (learning North American humor through TV commercials, these days... Still think this is the best beer "commercial" I've seen so far).
http://www.joescartoons.com/cartoons/superfly.html
KD
And the long awaited JDSU warning finally came in:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/010614/sfth067.html
(I think this one has been expected for so long that the market has it priced in already...
Don't expect too much for tomorrow, though. We have a classic head-and-shoulders formation of the Nasdaq. -Normally a bearish sign that the nearterm horizontal support (just around here at 2050) will break).
Good luck out there.
KD
The following 800 pound gorillas are welcomed to new two-or-more year lows today:
JDSU, LU (new 6 year low), NT, EXDS, ARBA.
There must be many others - I can't keep track anymore...
ORCL is a couple of months shy, down to levels of Nov. 1999. CSCO is about 15% shy of new 2.5 year low. YHOO is about 15% shy of new 3 year low.
KD
Re: Talked to the CEO...
I have an antibody that can identify the protein to be what it is. That 's what the company Matritech used to identify it (and subsequently desided not to buy the patent lisence to the protein).
The immediate question to me is: Did John Hopkins sell this patent license to Tessera in "bad faith"? (Which is to say: John Hopkins (and Tessera) knows that Matritech refused to buy the lisence after identifying the protein - does John Hopkins also know why? Were they made aware by Matritech that the protein isn't s cancer marker for prostate cancer, when they handed back the license?)
The questions immediately after that HAS to be...:
(quote from the Portland newspaper article)
"Dr. Masterson... saw the potential to use a class of resently discovered molecules in cell nuclei... One of them, PC-1 was discovered to be present only in prostate cancer cells and nowhere else - the figurative Holy Grail he had been searching for"
Are there business people and venture capital money out there that believe that you can BUY a "Holy Grail"? In a tourist shop (John Hopkins)? If they buy one, in such a place, do they honestly expect that "Holy Grail" to be authentic - genuine - and made of gold? -after another professional "collector" (Matritech) had it home to scrutinize - only to return it to the shop with the words "not interested"?
It's unbelievable, Meme, -unbelievable!
It underscores one thing (that I've sort of learned the hard way with technology stocks). Don't buy into a company who's technology you don't understand, at least on the basic level, and that you can evaluate for yourself.
It's difficult at times to do good DD. What's scary about this example is that there may be companies out there who's done less DD for THEMSELVES and their pipeline than I'VE done on them...
How can a company be so careless about itself? (unless, of course, the ultimate success of the company is in second line - if their existence is based on a Pump & Dump ideology... "This'll never work, but as soon as this piece of shit has been IPOed, that's no longer our concern. We're just here to make money...")
With this example in mind, I have to ask myself how many companies are out there who's been started on that basis? -and perhaps pumped on this basis?..
You don't think so? Let me quote a couple of other lines from the Portland article about Tessera:
"...Masterson hopes to have the... diagnostic kit available to medical labs on a research basis by a year from now and foresees FDA approval as early as 2003"
WHAT?!!! He's doesn't even know what he's bought yet! He's just bought a name of a protein (PC-1) who's identity he doesn't know! -And he's already speculating about FDA approval?... in 2003?...
"Tessera also has a hedge, in that the same antibodies they are developing for the urine test can be attached to fluorescent dyes to help diagnostic imaging, or radioactive seed molecules that would deliver concentrated doses of radiation to the cancerous cells without harming the rest of the body"
I remind you that we're talking about a protein that is present in the cell nucleus! Would anyone explain to me how an antibody directed against such a protein could ever come into contact with its target in a patient? (the outer border of our body cells is the plasma membrane - inside this lies another membraneous system surrounding the cell nucleus. How the hell does he suggest an antibody should be able to traverse BOTH membrane systems in INTACT cells and identify their targets INSIDE the cell nucleus? A first year biology student at a university would know this is rubbish! I suspect that the average highschool student would know this as well... It's unbelievable that I have to read such statements from someone who calls himself Ph.D with experience in Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology... Unbelievable!..
KD
LU credit-rating cut to "junk" by S&P
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20010613&ID=...
KD
Talked to the CEO...
So it turned out it was our, not their fax machine that was the problem.
He sounded like a pretty nice and hopelessly naive guy who seemed clueless as to what they're on to.
He knew their competitor had worked on the protein and knew they'd turned it down and John Hopkins then sold the patent rights to him instead...
Is that naive or what?...
John Hopkins never told him why Matritech didn't want the protein after all and he didn't ask questions... He just bought the lisence rights and raised venture capital (a truckload of it!)
I'll want to observe this from the sideline, cause the interesting scenario now is:
Here's a company with its ass full of venture capital money - and they just lost the one "product" they were supposed to pursue, an hour ago... It's in essence now an empty shell - a company name and an office and nothing else!
What will they do?...
We'll talk again... (We WILL talk again...) and then I'll see what I'll do. Right now, I have no idea.
I need to think...
KD
For those who are interested in following this, now, here's the company homepage (doesn't work on Netscape, for reasons I don't understand... It requires Internet explorer, at least on my computer):
http://www.Tesseradiagnostics.com/home/
I think you're right, harrytc1.
I've found the company on the internet.
Tried to send them a fax - the fax couldn't connect...
Tried to call them - got an answering machine that didn't state the company name, but simply said "the person you're calling is not available..."
Something's stinks here...
I'll contact the newspaper and inform them about this and my information on the identity of PC-1 as an already known general cancer marker and not a prostate specific one!
...This has me spooked...
KD
(OT) I need help, please!
I found a newslink yesterday that shocked me a bit:
http://portland.bcentral.com/portland/stories/2001/05/14/focus10.html
I have reasons to believe this company and its investors are being misled...
I know the identity of the PC-1 prostate cancer marker they talk about in the news release.
Back in 1995, a company mentioned as a competitor in the article (Matritech), contacted me to get an antibody I had produced against a cancer regulated nuclear matrix protein. They, too, had bought rights to a (the) patent held by the John Hopkins and were interested in PC-1. It turned out that PC-1 was proven identical to a protein called hnRNP-K (an abreviation of "heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein-K") which is, sure enough overproduced by cancer cells at a rate of more than ten fold, but it is not - it is NOT - prostate specific! I checked out its levels in all cancer samples we had to our disposal at my lab (then in Denmark) and it was massively present in all - colon cancer, liver cancer, pancreatic cancer, malignant melanomas (a skin cancer) etc. It was also overproduced in all cancer derived cell lines I ever checked, which included a variety of epithelial cells and fibroblasts.
There is no way John Hopkins can't be aware of this! This new company, Tessera Diagnostics, is being set up to chase a ghost! This is not only unethical - I dare suggest it is criminal! They are paying for a product that is artefactual and they are going to burn their way through investor-money to produce a test that can't work!
I have proof of this! I have all my original correspondence with Matritech with me, including that on the positive identification of PC-1. I went over it all, last night again and there is no doubt - I regret to say...
I need to get in contact with the company and aware them of this. I can't find them, however... Does any of you out there live in the Seattle area? Can anyone give me a hint as to how I may find this company and get in contact with them?
KD
From the "FWIW" litterbox...
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20010611&ID=...
On Nortels trouble which doesn't seem to be going away anytime soon (like it doesn't seem to do so for anyone in the sector, anytime soon...)
KD
(I keep waiting and watching...)