Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
TMD shares issued and outstanding increased by 439,090 in January and the short position is 962,271 as at Jan 31. So the recent PP warrants are being exercised and probably those same people are shorting by using the newly issued delivery shares to cover their position for a nice clean +/- $3 per share profit. If this is the case, they are not using the trading "I" series warrants to hedge their entire position.
Is this good or bad? Good in that the company should not need another surprise raise, but it will put a cap on any significant sp increase going forward until they are all exercised. So I expect a rinse & repeat of that formula until the warrants have fully funded the company. I knew something was up when someone was shorting this nano cap float. Nobody in their right mind would expose themselves to a naked short, without a hedge, unless they had Inside information.
At BigT82: because there was a 30:1 consolidation, you have to divide that number by 30. Last update Jan 25 & price of common $4,68. Should be accurate. Hope that helps.
At QuidWilson: yes black-scholes was a starting point but not a cookie cutter to approach warrants, more for options. Lots of tweeking over the years to the formulas to get a more exact warrant value. Once you have those results, it's not enough to just trade with your eyes closed. Knowing how to interpret those results on the underlying shares are another ballgame. This is why I keep saying that warrants are not for everyone until you have done your homework.
At glg20; I developed a spreadsheet some years ago that alows me to enter a sp target, volatility variance, interest rate, etc and it automatically calculates the warrant value. Its way too complicated to explain in detail. There is however a similar website that gives you the TMD warrant fair market value. The results vary from mine on some warrants in certain cases, however its a good staring point. If you still don't understand them or feel comfortable, you shouldn't hold them. Just stay with the shares!
http://canadianwarrants.com/values/current.htm#axzz5eZtuJ9Ma
Previous post:
$60 price tag puts the trading warrants all deep in the money. Sport19 says that FDA is 18 months which puts us in the summer of 2020. If thats the case, even the F's will still have about half a year left on them! IMO, this gets taken out before FDA and long before commercialization.
Series F would be $12, the G's $30, the H's $24 and the I's $37.50
These are all trading for under a nickel right now with the exception of the I's.
So I can get 100,000 warrants now for around $5k and have more percentage leverage than owning the shares. Shares go from $5 to $60, thats a multiplier of 12x my money but that same 5 cent warrant is more than 30x with a "conservative" volatility variance percentage of just 50%. An assumption could be made for 75% v.v., but lets stay conservative for argument's sake.
If I invest $5000 in TMD shares I would own 1,000 shares or own 100,000 warrants. At the $60 cash out, you clear $55k (12x) profit holding the shares, BUT the warrants would clear approx. min. 30x or $150K profit! A minimum of 3x the net profit return! Being so deep in the money, the I's would lose some leverage steam compared to the other 3 series. They look good now because they trade with an insurance policy premium built in caused by the shorts, but the 3 other series stand to benefit the most from having the best hedge ratio.
At glg20: yes!
No Conmen here!
Karl Storz///Olympus///Richard Wolf//Stryker
At QuidWilson; they have a trading symbol and trade just like the shares with a bid/ask. TMD.wt.F TMD.wt.G TMD.wt.F & TMD.wt.I (TTLLF in u.s.)
I have been playing warrants for 25+ years and have NEVER exercised a single warrant. I leave that up to the big investment funds who are the ones that exercise them almost 95%+ of the time to take a position in the shares at a fixed price, instead of on the open market.
Concerning call/put options, I played them many years ago, understand them, but don't feel comfortable holding them.
$6.20 was the high of the last run. If we blow by that this time on thin volume, that tells us alot about the next level! The shares are all over the place which positively affects the volatility variance percentages. Might have to increase the ratio from 50% to 75%.
At BigT82: I view warrants in three ways. Stay away completely if you don't understand them. Own 10% of your TMD portfolio as an insurance policy like holding gold if you want to in & out your TMD shares on profit taking, but not miss the buyout halt with your pants down. Or if your comfortable, only enjoy the benefits of warrants for those that believe that ownership has its privileges.
At BigT82; a $60 price tag puts the trading warrants all deep in the money. Sport19 says that FDA is 18 months which puts us in the summer of 2020. If thats the case, even the F's will still have about half a year left on them! IMO, this gets taken out before FDA and long before commercialization.
Series F would be $12, the G's $30, the H's $24 and the I's $37.50
These are all trading for under a nickel right now with the exception of the I's.
So I can get 100,000 warrants now for around $5k and have more percentage leverage than owning the shares. Shares go from $5 to $60, thats a multiplier of 12x my money but that same 5 cent warrant is more than 30x with a "conservative" volatility variance percentage of just 50%. An assumption could be made for 75% v.v., but lets stay conservative for argument's sake.
If I invest $5000 in TMD shares I would own 1,000 shares or own 100,000 warrants. At the $60 cash out, you clear $55k (12x) profit holding the shares, BUT the warrants would clear approx. min. 30x or $150K profit! A minimum of 3x the net profit return! Being so deep in the money, the I's would lose some leverage steam compared to the other 3 series. They look good now because they trade with an insurance policy premium built in caused by the shorts, but the 3 other series stand to benefit the most from having the best hedge ratio.
At Anyone: The "G" series expires on February 17, 2021. Will we have FDA approval by then?? Anyone have the ticker symbol in the U.S.?
At BigT82; Agreed that they are not all shorts buying, some long puchasing on the "I" warrants, its just that the price got ahead of itself. The next logical series will be the "G" series. The have not run like the "I" yet. Congrats on the percentage gain on your warrants while the stock got decimated!
At dedjim: The shorts are in no rush to cover and may continue shorting on the way up as we speak or it could be a short cover mini rally. Who knows what their individual floor profit exit price is but what I'm saying is that the "I" warrant volume would increase in parallel to the volume shorted. One could assume that the 20K traded could be a result of the same shorted on the shares.
If the short selling continues on this run, they will need to get more of the "I" series warrants (aka: TTLLF in U.S.) and will be reflected in the volume. 20K traded so far today. TTLLF trades need to be cleared on the TSX.
At Blast1977: I hate answering this question because the answer would be something that if someone else posted I would ignore if it was based on a redicoulis number pulled out of thin air. Problem is there is a comparative transaction for a technology that is not at the level of the Sport platform and it fetched $2 billion u.s..
How much of that was for the technology minus their cash in the bank, I don’t know.
Take Trixie minus the cash and we should be well above that number as well.
At Flenderson: Right now I would stay out until some upward momentum is started on the shares. They are asking above fair warrant values. The “I”s are too expensive due to the shorts chasing them up to get their insurance policy in place. The G & H have a higher strike and shorts will always go after the lowest strike. Worth repeating, warrants are not for everyone and if your asking about G or F, with all due respect, you shouldn’t be playing them for the same reason that you need to know when they are overvalued to exit.
At BigT82:
Never owned a single share in TMD. Because there are a few years before expiration and after FDA approval, its like holding the shares for me. Less capital invested and much more leverage. I know this field very well, so it was a no brainer for me but would not have bought the shares anyway even with the major potential here. Warrants are NOT for everyone and most should just stay with the shares if they want to sleep well at night. People are waiting for TMD to go into commercial production. IMO, will never get the chance as they will be taken out long before under a business combination proposal. The logical business choice would be an existing "manual endoscopy" manufacturer like Karl Storz, Olympus, Richard Wolf or Stryker. Others are possible like Conmen etc, but that would be less logical & unfortunate to my first choice for a newcomer to own those valuable patents.
If the stock gets a surprise halt and makes a major announcement, or an unsolicited bid which would catapult the shares on the re-opening well above $6.00, which is possible at any moment, the shorts would get roasted having to scramble to buy back the 3% net naked interest. So how do they limit the blue sky losses, by owning some "I" warrants that sets the high cap at $22.50. Still a big ouch on their pocket book, but at least they cover the worst case scenario at 375% loss. Shorting from $6 to buy back at $3 is a 100% gain. Good risk/reward ratio? There are better hedges elsewhere IMO. This is why I prefer owning the warrants on a stock, when the shares go up, so do the warrants and if the stock gets shorted, the shorters buy the warrants up as well. I like to go into a game winning before it even starts.
At glg20: Never seen off market private warrants go public. They are held by some entity(s) and not the company. Depending on the mystery holder(s), if exercising the warrants puts anyone at over 10% interest threshold, they would have to declare within 3 business days.
If the company wants to put out a positive spin press release to get us back on track, that can be done by the company at any given time. Or else, you would see it in the next one or two quarterly report depending on the conversion date.
The "I" series would be first to move if the shorts wanted to protect their short position from any dramatic rise. Anyone would be crazy to short this nano float with only 21,5 million shares outstanding and trading on the NASDAQ.
Karl Storz///Olympus-Gyrus ACMI///Stryker///Richard Wolf///
At glg20, agreed that some online brokerage firms Stateside don't allow you to buy Canadian listed stocks even if you ask if its possible. Most people who short or buy warrants are more experienced and deal with firms that are must more flexible. Living in Canada gives you an edge on TMD. Nice to see Canadians at an advantage for a change!!
I would not worry for anyone shorting the shares as they can easily hedge or cover their positions with one of the four (F-G-H-I)warrant series. Question is do you hedge or go naked on the short?
When the warrants move up, the percentage leverage is much higher.
$6000 invested in TMD common stock will get you approx. 1000 shares today and that same $6000 can buy you up to 300,000 warrants. Stock goes to say $24 and you call it a day. Shorts lose $18K (or 4x their capital) by having to buy back the stock either on the open market or exercise a portion of their warrants. Are those 300,000 "hedge" warrants worth more that $18k on a $24 stock?? Yes and by much more than 20x their initial capital, some warrants even trading in the money by a few dollars.
Is this a hedge strategy that I would follow, yes, but without shorting the stock in the first place, lol! The risk/reward ratio is just not worth it, even if TMD goes to zero.
Only true winner would be a "naked short" and who in their right mind would do that here inside a nano float!?
Most seem to forget that there has been a lot of volume on this nano share float over the last few days. You will always have your jitney & daytraders, but I think that ratio to longterm accumulation will start to show by a further reduction of tradable available shares. This is why the shares have to trade in a new higher range in order to fill the longer holders. Only other option are the warrants.
Conmed has to be very smart & careful about this. If they buy TMD, they may end up being subject of a takeover target of the entire company themselves as a whole just to get to SPORT! Would they put their high paying positions & jobs in jeopardy??
Over 500,000 shares traded stateside in first hour of trading! FYI, the company only has 21,5 million shares outstanding. Those private non-tradable warrants from last financing are in the money and depending on "WHO" owns them, strategic, they want to see this tight float momentum remain just as much as anyone. They are not stupid to comprimise that $100/share target to allow extra new paper floating around. The timeline when the last financing was done was crystal clear, so they probably developed a strategy including the RS and non-tradable warrants (for a change) to maximise complete leverage. A surprise press release announcing that some or all have been exercised would remove doubts of having to go back to the market now, or if ever, for more money.
$2+ billion U.S. would put TMD at $100/share considering that there are 21,5 million shares outstanding!? All trading series F-G-H-I warrants would be in the money!? Please someone correct me and bring me back down to earth. I'm starting to sound very stupid for an ultra conservative investor.
The funny thing is that the buyout spree hasn't even begun yet from the "traditional" leading manual endoscopic manufacturers like Karl Storz, Olympus, Stryker or Richard Wolf!! These companies completely dominate the manual M.I.S. market of diminishing returns. Hard to believe that they will just be spectators to these outsiders and not leverage their name onto one of these platforms. This is not just lucrative from the initial sale of the platform and accessories, but even moreso from service contracts and repairs! I normally don't throw crazy numbers out there, nor do I believe anyone posting them until I can get comparative transactions to justify. The $2+ billion U.S. is high IMO for that Auris bronchoscopy robotic technology. That would put TMD over $100/per share, which I'm going to have to look into because that doesn't seem realistic. There is nothing innovative other than using a single gaming joystick instead of SPORTS' controllers. The way that SPORT is set up with the same shorter flexible endoscope for diagnoscic proceedures, it can easily be made longer to do the broncho and even gastro, as I have mentioned in previous posts. For Auris, trying to mimic SPORT on the other hand would be impossible without the snaking arms and ergonomically challenging from a gaming joystick. The smarter move for J&J/VERB would be to get its hands on SPORT and spend a little on R&D to lengthen the flexible endoscope. From experience, I can tell that they are very new to this field by not having considered that very important possibility. Just because they are big and have lots of money, it doesn't always result in wise decisions.
Last 5 straight trading sessions, we have witnessed 500K plus volume each day stateside alone. Shouldn't usually be a big deal on most stocks, but for a company with just 21,5 million outstanding, eventually they will have to go out of range to get some. The price cannot support this volume for much longer under this momentum.
Thats why I like the warrants, still very much under the radar!
Exercising of the warrants depends on "who" owns them. Are they just regular investors or strategic holders? If just regular, no need to exercise, just wait.
A "strategic" holder(s) on the other hand might prefer to inject the funds needed by the company now, instead of doing another PP at these levels. Strategic holder(s) might feel that the timing is such that a PP could be done a much higher price based on certain upcomming events, or not at all if management is in certain strategic talks with a non dilutive clause during blackout period. A wink-wink to the strategic holder(s) without giving details of any discussions is a possibility.
In a couple of days, if we see that warrants have some or all been exercised, that would be a strong possibility.
SUNNYVALE, Calif., Jan. 09, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (“Intuitive”) (Nasdaq: ISRG), the pioneer and a global technology leader in robotic-assisted, minimally invasive surgery, today announced certain unaudited preliminary fourth quarter and full year 2018 financial results ahead of its participation at the 37th Annual JP Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 9-10, 2019, in San Francisco, California.
At Times Yours, I'm not sure that I understand the question, but outer sheath snake arms, or end effectors are not used in gastro and bronco applications. The integrated instrument channel is used for say a biopsy, snare, graspers, etc.
Laparoscopic proceedures need at least 2 snaking arm end effectors to perform the proceedure.
So what I'm saying is, the 2D examination system can easily be adapted to both applications rigid & flexible, the only difference being the working length and strength of the angulation cables when using the instrument channel..
At Times Yours, I completely disagree with you. The 2d is NOT the same distal tip configuration. It has an "attached" distal objective lens, optical light fibers and biopsy channel that are all 'fixed' to the distal tip and surrounded by the bending rubber. They all move in tandem. The 3D had an outer master plastic sheath and the moving parts within and independent for optics, light and end effectors.
The 2D for visual and biopsy examination does not us the end effector ports, but rather the biopsy channel.
At Adrock, the recent video link has been posted here several times and is in the board moderator section. You have to keep your finger on the pause button and go back a couple of times to notice this very important deference on the delivery systems. You will might see the difference, but only the trained eye familiar with these two systems can make anything of it. I have to admit that during my first view of the video, something did stand out, but did't go back for whatever reason to get a better idea.
Has TMD secretly been working on a flexible delivery system for bronco & gastro without disclosing it, or by calling it a 2D examination cart?? That is an entirely new market and as lucrative as SPORT's initial application.
Anyone??
The video did not show us the control head, only the distal tip and some of the insertion tube, so it would be very difficult to say thats its either an Olympus or Pentax flexible.
What I did notice from the video that I was not aware of to this point is the flexible endoscopy capabilities for gastro and maybe even bronco. You saw 2 unique delivery systems, one a 2D "examination" that acts as a cradle delivery system for a flexible endoscope, not part of the original SPORT design. The second, a 3D rigid type with articulating effectors.
This is "very material" to the trained eye that would notice the difference in the 1-2 second frames.
What this is telling me is that the gastro application and possibly bronco. for examination, biopsy & operative are possible.
I don't know if this was intended or a mistake when they made the video. The only validation will be the removal of that frame in the video. Stay tuned, this is a game changer!!
How about a rights offering for a change by allowing the shareholders that have be through the roller coaster ride to participate in this one also, instead of witnessing the discounted PP pain from the sidelines?
For those of you that don't know about rights, they are given to each share that is already issue and outstanding. They allow you to buy an additional share or fraction at a set discounted price with a short expiry date, usually within 60 days. They are tradable, so if you don't want to put more money in, you can always sell them on the open market for a couple of pennies to someone who does.
Rights offerings are a fair way to respect "ALL" shareholders equally, including retail for a change in this case.
At OR Nurse, any OR nurse would know that Karl Storz is the world leader in the manual M.I.S. endoscopy space. They would be the natural fit among the leading manufacturers if they wanted to maintain market dominance for the transition away from manual M.I.S. and into robotics. They are also privileged in that they witness the results of SPORT first, by being on the board of the Institute of Image-Guided Surgery at the Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire de Strasbourg, France (IHU Strasbourg). One of the founding members is the CEO of Karl Storz.
So why then have none of the major manufacturers positioned themselves into robotics. IMO, they have been blindsighted by fighting amongst themselves to gain market share in this very lucrative manual sector, not only from sales, but service & repair contracts. Until robotics impacts the revenues of the sector as a whole, Olympus, Storz, R.Wolf & Stryker will just continue to operate in the bubble of diminishing returns.
Conmed however could make a clever move to roll the dice and become the dominant player in the single port robotics sector. Olympus & Storz are the leaders in urology & gyn., so THE company with single port patents and technology will be a target.
Medtronic plc (NYSE: MDT), a global leader in medical technology, and Mazor Robotics (NASDAQ: MZOR, TASE: MZOR.TA), a pioneer in the field of robotic guidance systems, today announced the companies have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Medtronic will acquire all outstanding ordinary shares of Mazor for $58.50 per American Depository Share, or $29.25 (104.80 ILS) per ordinary share, in cash, for a total of approximately $1.64 billion, or $1.34 billion net of Medtronic's existing stake in Mazor and cash acquired. The boards of directors of both companies have unanimously approved the transaction.
Old news but shows that there is movement in the sector!!
Lets wait for the press release to explain or not why trading was high and price was up today. From there, it can be a whole different picture.