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SGZH 10k out. Top/bottom has not much growth. With the backdrop of average selling price go up 30% for the year.
The average selling price per ton for 2009 was $49.10, compared to $37.86 for 2008, an increase of 30%.
SGA goes up 100% as well.
The business is too unpredictable to get any high PE. NOT undervalued.
Sentiment: HOLD.
You can't use market price on these coal mining company for revenue just as you can't use spot oil/gas price to oil companies. 3 things affect the coal price in my observation.
1 Their sale prices are after transportation, tax etc. I have seen the same mistake from many people including "the best" in the original analysis.
2. Customers. SGZH sales to local long term customer. price is even lower than prevailing.
3. Composition. Produced coal are in different qualities(KCAL, Ash, sulfur, water, size etc). So average sale price is much lower.
CHGY's average sale price is $37 (rough park, out of my head) for 2009. CHGY's coal (6800-7000KCAL) are higher quality coal than SGZH (4000-6000KCAL for XingAn, 65000 for Tong Gong, no production though for Q4). So I expect SGZH's average can't be significantly higher than $37, even if they do produce in Q4 in Xing An.
Using rough estimate of market increase 10-20% on sea port, this may mean 20-40% sales price increase for mining company if transportation, tax etc stay same, which is usually go up some.
SGZH - DD
As shown in 10k. Production and brokerage volumes are VERY seasonal.
TonGong has NO production in both 2007 and 2008. Sales volumes are from brokerage.
Xing An were under maitenance to broaden passage so NO production in Q2 and Q3 of 2009. Not sure Q4's production will be significant. Judging from significant lower number from 2008 vs 2007, I am not sure. Brokeraged volumes are also lower from 2007 to 2008 to 2009.
Not saying they are not going to show any sale volumes.
brokeraged volume normally lower the profit margin, hence net income, eps etc.
Their year over year growth are still respectable. However the prospect of a blowout Q4 like CHGY did is not very high. Q4 result may even disappoint some.
Sentiment: Don't buy. Wait for dip after 10k release, however late.
One suggestion is to assign weight to the 10 picks. say I am in favor of my top 3. I assign 20% percent each. Rest gets only 10-5%. Total weight should be equal to 100%. This allows for more accurate picture of favorites.
CCME - In last CC, Jacky Lam mentioned about until they reach 1000 customers they will not increase CPM significantly. Currently they have about 500. My reasoning that 1000 customers is THE higher barrier for them to achieve or the critical mass, or bargaining chip, whatever you want to call it. Will they achieve this critical level by 2012 ? I hope so with $100M they have and aggressive marketing and smart aquisition.
CCME is not discovered by institutions yet. Maybe another Q release will get people excited.
First PR from business wire by CHGY
Contacts: Company: Alex (Yuan) Gong, Chief Financial Officer Tel: +86 10 52036900 Email: alexgong08@gmail.com
Investor Relations: HC International, Inc.
Ted Haberfield, Executive VP Tel: +1-760-755-2716 Email: thaberfield@hcinternational.net
Wow. Maybe you should start with helping some of your clients to create better website in next month(:-
CBPO - Who has detail of this rec ?
Brean Murray maintains a 'Buy' on China Biologic Products (CBPO); Triple-Digit Growth Reflects Strong Business Fundamentals
Brean Murray maintains a 'Buy' on China Biologic Products (Nasdaq: CBPO), raises price target from $15 to $19
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Brean+Murray+maintains+a+%27Buy%27+on+China+Biologic+Products+%28CBPO%29%3B+Triple-Digit+Growth+Reflects+Strong+Business+Fundamentals/5473260.html
Brean Murray maintains a 'Buy' on China Biologic Products (CBPO); Triple-Digit Growth Reflects Strong Business Fundamentals
Brean Murray maintains a 'Buy' on China Biologic Products (Nasdaq: CBPO), raises price target from $15 to $19
with all the trading and big gain you have, how do you deal with tax on them if they are in taxable account ?
CBPO,
Non-GAAP, PE(TTM)=6.3. Guidance for 2010 NI 34-36m, put EPS at 1.5, so forward PE=4.4.
Per guidance revenue and NI growth rate is not high, however just
remember 2009 guidance was 18-22m with result of 29.3m. Things will change during the year.
CCME, great summary and your questions in cc.
For 5) 10-15% CPM increase in Q1 for some areas. However in short term, they will not raise CPM dramatically until they hit 1000 and more customers base.
Additional
1) Total share count 41m, 10m outstanding shares, 23m management shares, 4.5m starr, 1m earn in, 2m(forgot the rest).
2) 21% direct customers. All top 5 customer are ad agency
3) Acquisition targets must be high return, supplementary (in area coverage), not in bidding market. They may not use up all 100m this year for such targets.
4) Capex 15-20mil. (existing business)
CCME, if we factor in their 50% organic growth, 50% aquisition. 2010 NI will blow away $85 guidance for SPAC. It will certainly deserve a lot higher PPS, > $30. Thanks Fernando and Superman for your championing on this
CCME, From experience with CBPO, it took about 4 weeks for IBD to show correct numbers after CBPO's uplisting to NASDAQ, to crack into IBD 100, it would be longer, IMHO,
Can anyone kindly give me a summary post why FEEC is a good deeply undervalued play as of today and where it would be?
Thanks, Northen. Actually "powered coal" is produced more at 60%. If your number is corrent, their raw profit is about $25/ton for 2009. I put in more conservative $30/ton profit than your $45/ton assuming production reach 1000000 tons capacity. Indeed their EPS at 50m diluted share will be at $0.52. Given forward PE at 3 at current price. Target can easily be north of $3-$4. CHGY is certainly a better coal play than any other at this time.
CHGY, When you buy 1 million shares of CHGY, you have no choice but buy and hold.
Hats off to Northern and others who are so concentrated on this (think of Bob has 50% in TSTC). It takes extensive DD, guts, patience and some luck to pull it off. On risk-adjusted base, probably similar to trading with smaller volume.
HAO actually up 2.41% so far today. Looks like investors still shy agway from riskier microcap names. Correction is still in place but stabled.
TSTC behaves similar to CAGC, which touched low between 12 and 13 and marched no-stop to current 24. With TSTC's publicity in IBD 100 gowing from #12 to #9 this week, mo-mo player will certainly push it further to 24-25 range. The good thing is that Rodman show comes in early march, Q/K report is coming mid march (?). If good news stream keeps coming, it should be propelled above 25 in short term. IMO.
I am talking about forward PE using 5-6 for this sector is appropriate target (or conservative target).
As coal price spike last year, all are doing well
SGZH,
I think PE=8 is very aggressive for this volatile sector. PE,5 or 6 are more reasonable. JIMO.
"An ultra-conservative pe of 8 = $16/share."
Can it be interpreted indirect pumping or their extra DD for their own portfolio ?
Look at their strategy for 2010.
http://www.geoinvesting.com/geowire/163/investment_strategy_for_2010
I am very much in comfort that they agree with a lot of concensus names here and mine.
CBPO - bounce from 50EMA is very constructive! Due to its recent bad rep. from short attack and Barron's article, nobody seems to dare to buy it any more. Coupled with strength in other growth names in the same smallcap china stocks space. Traders all shifted out their money. At $8 and recent high of $13.5. You talk about 60-70% upside at least if their independant investigation result come out positive and/or next Q/Y release are projecting same growth as it was in 2009. It will be in short 1-2 month. Downside is limited with their strong balance sheet $50mil cash and growing. Plus the warrant issue worked against them in Q3 will work for them in GAAP EPS for Q4. Their gross profit margin of 77.2%, Pre-tax profit margin 32.4% are among the best cash machines there. (BSPM has good gross but not net )
Coal-Infested ? I thought CCME is your #1 holding. any change there ?
veggix,
Excellent presentation overall. Nicely done.
One missing part for your analysis is peer comparison. Some discussion about competitors are very necessary. One easy comparison is GrenTech (GRRF), There are several listed http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:TSTC. Will they pose threat to TSTC's growth in intermediate term ?
Since TSTC is expanding into Americas and other markets, their goals are from current 5% to eventual 30% of their revenue mix in 2011. Any obstacles to their goals? What providers/customers in Americas think about their products? I remember one poster (consulted his Standford-educted engineer brother) didn't think high about WDFS. What matters is the real customers.
Let's look at definition of Microcap.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/microcapstock.asp
market capitalizations between $50 million and $300 million.
and SmallCap
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/small-cap.asp
company with a market capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion.
Then we look at ECSC index here (favorites), almost all of them fit into microcap, not small-cap.
Of course some small cap names are discussed but most are in microcap.
Maybe "Microcap China growth stock" better name since most discussed are below smallcap cateroty, some are penny stocks in nano cap.
Look at HAO, as a smallcap ETF, it has a lot of stocks, which this board never discusses.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418133/000118518509001091/biostarpharm-8k110209.htm
"Within sixty (60) days after the Closing Date, the Company shall retain a top 10 audit firm that is mutually acceptable to the Company and the Investors. "
"The Company has agreed that if its common stock is not listed on a national securities exchange within one hundred and forty-five (145) days of the Closing Date, the Company shall pay the Investors.... "
From 11/3, 60 days would be 1/2/2010. 145 days would be 3/28/2010. They are already late no the first. However there is no penalty clause.
I really like how they are handling this with objectivity.
CBPO - Just called their IR in China.
http://www.chinabiologic.com/pages/225/302/302.html
There will be PR tomorrow.
I have posted comments about the "criminal" former CEO at seekingalpha
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/500579-worthless-pennies/45557-china-biologic-there-will-be-blood#comment_update_link
The biggest problem is that according to SEC filing
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1369868/000093041307007153/c46541_sb2.htm
Tung, Lam has been the Chief Executive Officer of our operating subsidiary, Shandong Taibang, since October 2003, and is responsible for the entire operation. Mr. Lam served, from March 2001 to August 2003, as the vice president of the Fujian Province Fei Yue Group, where he was in charge of management investment. Mr. Lam graduated from Fuzhou University majoring in business administration in 1983. He also received a EMBA degree from People’s University of China in 2006
If My Lam Tung graduated from Fuzhou University, this is completely different from Mr. Lin Zipin's Page 3 resume, which is totally military based experience.
Don't know. Likely result will be that no one is to confess. "Controvertial" and ineffective diretor maybe replaced by more effective, knowledge and clean director under the influence of major share holders.
You are right. However the only real threat to common shareholder is the litigation, which has very little chance to win now.
If the other allegations were true, it would force resignation of those board members and directors. The fact is that the alleged "criminals" are not on current board or management team now. The claimed criminal CEO is not the current CEO. So it would be bad PR in its best. The real cash generating power of CBPO in next Q and Y will prevail.
The article's timing is perfect for its purpose -- to short.
I researched the subject and facts. The dispute has been for past several years without new development. Q3 shows the litigation In WuHan was rejected and the real threat is diminishing.
I am adding at this level. Once fear for general market is over, 20% up is easy from here.
This same retoric has been on for several years. If you check its source from 2003 to 2005. In CBPO Q3, the litigation has been dismissed yet again. The article, similar to what is in Yahoo and many other place is purely fear-monger without recent fact.
I add CBPO here for immediate 20% bounce when fear is over.
I am glad to see its strengthening here as well. There is only one amended S1A filed today. I don't see it as the mover.
But I won't put too much into one day. It is very tricky to time market in short period, let alone individual stock. As long as we focus on fundamental, we should be ok after this roller coaster... though I am getting a little dizzy now.
If you read about WFDS, you will consider TSTC will keep the growth pace in 2010. This company is a keeper.
Telestone estimates more than 50% its revenue will derive from WFDS(TM) technology based projects and equipment sales in 2010 and reports that WFDS(TM) the Company's highest margin product line
Patience is a virtue for this stock. Its cycle is a little longer than couple days. Currently in down cycle.
Why no SEC filing for recent PP ? Is it because Starr International is private company ?
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=china+mediaexpress&match=&CIK=CCME&filenum=&State=&Country=&SIC=&owner=exclude&Find=Find+Companies&action=getcompany