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I think that post was off topic and should be deleted!
(VBG)
d
RFP to the thread: Off the shelf or build to order. Opteron, A-64, Other?
Tasks:
This machine will be dedicated to a character recognition process used to capture donor names and addresses from the check images captured in a lock-box operation.
Checks are scanned at the bank and the multipage tif files and associated mdb database files are copied to a weekly cd. Initially we will take most of a year's worth of data (140,000 checks) and run it through the application. The parent application is from "Captiva". Customizations are required to logically determine what is a name, ann address, a graphic, etc. In normal operation we will run the application weekly. In the future we will switch to a nightly FTP process that will place each day's activity on our network.
The project is self-liquidating within the first six months due to the savings from not having the bank do keystrokes normally required to capture this information.
So what would you buy/build?
TIA
d
Centrino is being marketed as an accross the board solution with an emphasis on business. I took your comment about cable modem throughput not requiring more than "b" wireless throughput to be a disengenuous attempt to switch the criteria to make your point.
What I'm looking for is profitable info. Does suggesting that Intel can make Centrino fly off the shelves with only 802.11b for wireless support help anyone profit?
d
Just to be simple and clear
Pentium M - Very Good to Excellent
802.11b - Not so good, sucks in an office with a g-router available
Until it supports 802.11g, Centrino Sucks
Standing up for a sucky standard just because Intel is marketing it - priceless!
d
The last 2 paragraphs should be noted by we droids, as we have taken great heart in Hickey's views when noted by Herb Greenberg:
Still, AMD has disappointed investors so many times in the past that Wall Street analysts may be in a show-me mode regarding its new chip.
Mr. Hickey is not recommending that investors buy AMD shares, which are up 117 percent this year. But he is concerned that Intel holders, aided and abetted by Wall Street, may be discounting the AMD challenge. That is their prerogative, of course. But, with Intel's shares trading at 44 times earnings, it certainly is a brassy one.
d
Fawning Analysts Betray Investors
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Published: October 19, 2003
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/19/business/yourmoney/19watc.html?ex=1067140800&en=891ea72dc48282...
PROVING that the more things change, the more they stay the same, Wall Street analysts have their pompoms out again.
Yes, cheerleader analysts are not quite as prevalent as they were in 2000. But as the Intel earnings conference call last Tuesday showed, too many analysts still seem to think it is part of their job to high five the companies they are supposed to be assessing for the benefit of their clients.
Intel, as you may have noticed, had a magnificent third quarter. Revenues were $7.8 billion, up 20 percent from the same period last year, and net income came in at $1.7 billion, a 142 percent increase over 2002.
But listening to the question and answer period on the conference call was like being transported back to 1999. More than half of the 16 analysts who got to ask a question took care to plant a wet kiss on management's cheek before they proceeded.
The most vocal sycophants hailed from the big Wall Street firms, like Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse First Boston and Citigroup, that in January paid $1 billion to settle regulatory allegations that their analysts were too bullish on many stocks because they were improperly collaborative with their firms' investment bankers.
"Another nice quarter, guys!" trilled Dan Niles, the semiconductor analyst at Lehman Brothers. "Nice quarter!" Eric Gomberg at Thomas Weisel Partners chimed in. Not to be outdone, Mark Edelstone at Morgan Stanley gushed, "Congratulations on a truly phenomenal quarter!"
Don't they see that such fawning is conduct unbecoming to research professionals charged with being objective about the companies they follow?
Before its earnings announcement, Intel's stock had almost doubled in 2003. After the report, some analysts raised their price targets on Intel because the shares had exceeded them. Another bit of bubble-era behavior.
While the analysts asked questions about Intel's tax rate and the company's head count, not one asked what Intel was doing to fend off the threat that the new 64-bit chip from Advanced Micro Devices may pose to its longtime hegemony in processors. For the first time, AMD's new chip could propel it out from Intel's shadow, said Fred Hickey, editor of The High-Tech Strategist, an investment newsletter.
The AMD chip, which is being developed with I.B.M., has won over a throng of sophisticated users in science and research. Japan's National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology ordered an I.B.M. supercomputer that will use AMD chips and operate at 11 trillion operations per second. Microsoft is developing an operating system for the AMD chip, its first for a non-Intel processor.
"Intel may have to use AMD's instruction set, which works specifically with the operating system that Microsoft is developing," Mr. Hickey said. That would be a turnabout; AMD has been a producer of Intel-compatible chips until now.
Tom Beermann, an Intel spokesman, doesn't sound worried about AMD. He said: "Our focus with 64 bits is in the enterprise computing area for servers and that's where the Itanium processor comes into play. We're clearly gaining momentum there."
But Mr. Hickey disputed this, noting that the Itanium has not been well received in the industry. Its nickname among some is the "Itanic," he said.
Still, AMD has disappointed investors so many times in the past that Wall Street analysts may be in a show-me mode regarding its new chip.
Mr. Hickey is not recommending that investors buy AMD shares, which are up 117 percent this year. But he is concerned that Intel holders, aided and abetted by Wall Street, may be discounting the AMD challenge. That is their prerogative, of course. But, with Intel's shares trading at 44 times earnings, it certainly is a brassy one.
=DJ UPDATE (2): ATI Says 4Q Margins May Not Be Sustainable
(Adds analysts comments in paragraphs 7-10 and updates share price.)
By Stuart Weinberg Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES TORONTO (DOW JONES)--ATI Technologies Inc.'s (ATYT) fourth-quarter revenue and earnings exceeded expectations, but the graphics chip maker forecast a decline in first-quarter gross margins, citing increasing competitive pressures.
The Markham, Ont. company's gross margins climbed sharply in the fourth quarter, up three percentage points from the previous quarter, to 35.6%. However, on a conference call early Friday, ATI chief financial officer Terry Nickerson said margins were at the high end of ATI's targeted range.
"While we are pleased with the increase in gross margin, it is just about the high end of our target range and our forecast anticipates that we will be back in our 32-35% range in response to competitive pressures going forward," he said.
Asked to provide more detail about the "competitive pressure," Nickerson said the company's integrated graphics processors begin shipping in the first quarter, which could pressure margins. In addition, the company may be taking an overly cautious view, he added, given the strength in fourth-quarter margins. "We just recognize that we have pretty strong margins...and it's just a question of how sustainable is that and for how long. So we may in fact be a little bit cautious in terms of the guidance on that, but right now that's how we're seeing it," he said.
On Nasdaq Friday, ATI is down 85 cents, or 5.2%, to $15.45 on about 8.1 million shares. The stock has traded as low as $15.33.
CIBC World Markets analyst Daniel Gelbtuch said he believes the decline in the share price may reflect profit-taking, noting that the stock is up sharply this year. Investors may also be concerned about the lower gross-margin forecast, he added. Gelbtuch said Nickerson's comments suggest ATI is being extremely cautious. Hence, the analyst said his forecasts are "going up."
National Bank Financial analyst Deepak Chopra was less sanguine about ATI's forecasted margins. In a research note Friday, he said the lower forecast highlights two major concerns: pricing pressure and the lower margins that will be generated from the integrated products.
During the call, ATI president David Orton acknowledged that margins from the integrated business will be at the low end of the company's range, as ATI attempts to gain credibility and market share in this new area of its business.
Harris Partners analyst Jon Hykawy lauded the company's fourth-quarter results, calling the 71% year-on-year revenue growth "remarkable." However, he added, there are clearly risks for any ATI investor at this point. "Aside from market and economic risk, which we don't believe we are any more qualified to judge than many others, we note that we are approaching yet another product cycle from both Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) and ATI," he said. "Should Nvidia manage to produce fantastic products for both the enthusiast and mainstream, and ATI misstep, then ATI will be hurt."
Hykawy said he didn't believe this scenario was likely to occur, given what is known at this point regarding coming products. ATI is also diversifying well into a variety of consumer products and hedging against continued pressure on discrete praphics processors by entering the market for integrated chipsets, he added. "This is a very strong company," he said.
Hykawy owns ATI shares but Harris Partners doesn't have an investment-banking relationship with the company. National Bank's Chopra and CIBC's Gelbtuch don't own ATI shares and neither firm has an investment-banking relationship with the company.
For the period ended Aug. 31, ATI reported net of 9 cents a share, compared with a loss of 15 cents a year earlier. Adjusted net came in at 12 cents, up from breakeven. Adjusted net excludes the effects of investment gains, other charges, amortization of goodwill and other items.
Revenue rose to $380.6 million from $223 million.
The Thomson First Call mean estimate was for adjusted net of 10 cents a share on revenue of $364.46 million.
"We had an excellent quarter," Nickerson said.
For the first quarter, the company sees revenue of $400-$430 million with adjusted net even with or slightly higher than the fourth-quarter level. The First Call mean estimate is for adjusted net of 13 cents and $399.65 million, respectively.
Company Web Site: http://www.ati -Stuart Weinberg, Dow Jones Newswires; 416-306-2026; stuart.weinberg@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 03, 2003 13:25 ET (17:25 GMT)
I've been in and out 3 times and always missed about 50 cents each time(plus commish). But I'm still relatively sane. Meanwhile I can't see touching nvdia til it goes pre-teen and then we will see.
NVDA seems to be poisened by the voodoo they didn't do so well incorporating. <g>
All is temporary in this game. ATYT can still blow it, and NVDA can come back big. It is fun staying tuned!
Dave
DJ FTC May Drop Antitrust Scrutiny Of Intel - Paper
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Antitrust enforcers are investigating claims that Intel (INTC) bullies computer makers to discourage them from doing business with its chief rival, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), according to people familiar with the matter, USA Today reported in its Tuesday editions.
However, some Federal Trade Commission investigators are skeptical of the complaints, and the agency may be close to dropping the probe, the paper reports these people as saying.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 16, 2003 04:19 ET (08:19 GMT)
New Analyst at BA is why AMD was "started" vs upgraded
Analyst John Lau, who formerly worked at RBC Capital Markets, said the PC recovery will be driven initially by new Centrino-based notebooks worldwide and desktops in Asia. Centrino is the wireless chip Intel unveiled early this year.
In the case of Intel, Lau said it remains "one of the best-positioned semiconductor companies in the PC sector," with upside earnings potential as the PC industry accelerates into 2004.
As for competitor AMD, Lau said the upcoming launch of the company's new 64-bit microprocessors will expand the chip maker into the corporate and server markets. He noted that the new chips may not have a significant revenue impact in the second half of 2003 but that AMD's opportunities will be greater in 2004.
Lau set a $13 price target on shares of AMD and a $32 target on Intel's stock.
Feast your eyes on the perfect dual opteron motherboard from Tyan
Hyperbole? You decide: http://user.chollian.net/~xriona/2cpu/preview/tyan/s2885/
props to Joshua Steed at the inq : http://theinquirer.net/?article=10945
dh
re: Fleck - "The guy has, is, and always will be an INTC perma-bear."
and he has been a Fred Hickey perma-bull. Does Hickey deserve the credibility he's been lauded with?
(last post du jour from the cheap seats)
dh
Arne Alsin {who seems to have a real h*rd-on about AMD] responds to Fleck
AMD
8/07/03 06:58 AM ET
Now there's an understatement - Fleck says AMD's balance sheet "is not the best on the planet"...my guess is that the rumors of IBM interest in AMD are not true and even if IBM is interested, they can bide their time while AMD continues its "lose a billion, borrow a billion" business strategy.
np (no position)
[this appeared in the Columnist Conversation this am responding to Fleck's article last night, all on the Real Money site at the street.com)
AMD and IBM: Will They or Won't They? By Bill Fleckenstein
Lauding a Live Fish: Yesterday I mentioned a rumor about some sort of IBM (IBM:NYSE - commentary - research)/Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:NYSE - commentary - research) linkup and said I'd elaborate further today. I have some assistance from the most recent issue of The High-Tech Strategist, but before quoting from it, a few words about its author, Fred Hickey. To reiterate my oft-stated praise, Fred is about the only live fish that I have found in technology.
Fred writes: "AMD's new 64-bit microprocessor chip continues to make progress. Yields are improving, and the desktop and mobile versions will be announced in September (shipments to customers will begin this month). IBM is rolling out its first Opteron servers now. H-P (HPQ:NYSE - commentary - research) has plans to adopt the desktop version of the chip (Athlon 64) in a line of PCs. Sun (SUNW:Nasdaq - commentary - research) will likely use Opterons in a line of servers. AMD's chip is superior to Intel's (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research) Itanium. Once the chip gets more traction, I believe that even Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - commentary - research) will jump Intel's ship and announce that it's using the chip. There are lots of rumors floating around to that effect."
Pooling Resources Along the Hudson: The bottom line: Fred is convinced that the Athlon and Opteron are going to be successful parts. The only real question has been whether AMD will be able to manufacture these things. It has been working on this project in collaboration with IBM, which, as folks who've been paying attention know, desperately needs a successful part to run in its Fishkill, N.Y., fab (note that AMD's research group has moved to Fishkill and is presently working on the next-generation .65 Athlon 64/Opteron). IBM could give AMD a double bonus, both by teaming up with it on the manufacturing process, and also by endorsing its part in the PC business. To me, it seems to make perfect sense for IBM and AMD to do something together, as AMD needs credibility, and AMD's balance sheet isn't the best on the planet.
Of course the real key is, as Fred muses, whether or not Dell jumps ship and opts for these AMD processors. I believe the answer is yes, since Dell will be able to get them cheaper, and they're better processors, with backward-compatible features. Further, I believe that Dell ought to feel like Dell's customers are Dell's, so why should the company pay such huge margins to Intel and Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - commentary - research) if it can help it? Obviously, Microsoft is hard to get around. But to the extent that Dell can do something with AMD parts at a better price, that helps Dell's margins.
Toppling the Intel Pedestal: So, I believe some sort of combination/endorsement among these three players is in their collective best interest. I expect that it will occur, though I have no special knowledge that it is in process. All of this, naturally, helps to bolster my negative opinion of Intel. To repeat my comments from previous Raps, I believe that Intel's basic idea of selling ever-more expensive processors is flawed, given that PCs are a commodity, and saturation is upon us. I believe that if this little scenario which I've laid out comes to pass, folks will see that Intel has rested on its laurels for a long time, and it's not the innovative powerhouse that people think.
Intel has, in my opinion, pursued the wrong strategy since 1998. That is when it denied the existence of the sub-$1,000 PC, choosing to try to keep margins up and make its stock price go up, rather than seeking the best technological strategies that money could buy. I believe that Intel has turned itself into a marketing company, as opposed to a technology company, but obviously reasonable people could debate that subject.
Anyway, based on this thought process, I own a few AMD calls as a speculation, but I own far, far more Intel puts, because to me, that cake is completely baked. My belief is strengthened further by what Fred opines in his most recent issue -- that Intel will lower guidance on Sept. 4 at its midquarter update, since it will be unable to make the numbers it has set for itself. I would just say that Fred's opinion is good enough for me, and I support his view.
re: e-mach notebook; like mine a lot.
great screen, good battery life, excellent performance in 2D graphics, passing performance in 3D.
still waiting for my rebate
dh
socket 754 for the Athlon 64 is indicated by the picture at http://www17.tomshardware.com/game/200306281/millionman-06.html
(vs socket 940 for Opteron)
implications anyone? Could this confirm number aHT and memory channels?
d
re:
THG shows Athlon 64 laptop
http://www17.tomshardware.com/game/200306281/millionman-05.html
As you get a look at the Uniwell N766AA0 from from another angle you can tell that this is a big notebook. Checking in at 9lbs but it does offer a 16" screen and everything but the kitchen sink.
wbmw
When the FSB hits the wall, would they not change the multiplier?
You might also note that IBM uses a fixed front side bus to CPU multiplier for the G5. The multiplier is 2:1, which means that at 1.6GHz, the G5 has an 800MHz FSB. At 1.8GHz, the FSB is 900MHz and at 2.0GHz, the FSB is 1.0GHz. This is an interesting design decision; although it has positive performance benefits, it will also likely be limited by how high the front side bus will clock, rather than the CPU itself.[/e]
SC TO-C: AMD Begins Voluntary Stk Opt Exchange Offer [delayed]
Ridgeland, MS, JUN 20, 2003 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) --
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) filed an SC TO-C on 6/20, in which the Company reported that it intends to commence a voluntary stock option exchange offer for employees holding stock options with an exercise price equal to or greater than $14.00 under certain of the Company's stock option plans on or about June 25, 2003.
Under the exchange program, eligible employees will have the opportunity to exchange existing stock options for a right to receive replacement options at exchange ratios that, depending on the applicable exercise price of their stock options, range from 1.28 to 1.87 share for 1 replacement share.
Are you re-thinking that sale?
I sold the smae day and I'm now wondering if this xBox rumor has any traction.
http://spong.com/index.asp?art=5053
TODAY
NVDA down 6+%
ATYT up 8+%
hmmmm
(a preview of the xBox cpu rumors)
re: 16x9 notebook - eMachines M5305
15.4 inch display is 1280 by 800 format - not quite 16x9
Pluses:
sub 7 pounds
great display
USB 2
Minuses:
No firewire
No built-in WiFi (I bought a G card anyway)
http://store.emachines.com/
System Details.
Processor Mobile AMD Athlon™ XP-M processor 2200+ with QuantiSpeed™ architecture
Memory 512 MB DDR (PC2100)
Hard Drive 40 GB
Display 15.4" Widescreen TFT LCD WXGA (1280 x 800 max. resolution)
Optical Drive DVD/CD-RW Combo (CD-read 24x; CD-write 24x; CD-rewrite 10x; DVD-read 8x)
Video ATI® RADEON™ IGP 320M
Sound PC2001 Compliant AC '97 Audio
Stereo Speakers
Modem 56K* ITU v.92 Ready Fax/Modem
Network 10/100Mbps Built-in Ethernet Card
Internet Access AOL service included**
Ports / Other 3 USB ports, 1 VGA external connector, 1 Parallel Port, 1 S–Video Out, Microphone In, Line Out, PCMCIA Slots (Card Bus type I and type II)
Pointing Device Touchpad with vertical Scroll Zone
Operating System Microsoft® Windows® XP Home Edition
Dimensions 1.36"h x 14.0"w x 10.0"d
Weight 6.5 lbs. with battery
Battery 8-cell Lithium-ion (Li-ion)
Warranty Standard 1 year
Intel Celeron is a customer deception
By Arron Rouse: Thursday 01 May 2003, 13:30
.....
When AMD introduced its PR rating for processors, there was plenty of comment about how it might confuse customers. In fact, the opposite has happened. What has proven to be dishonest is Intel's insistence on not using a PR numbering system. While there can be no doubt that the Pentium 4 is a fine processor, the current Celeron is a different story all together. ..........
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=9267
Intel's Splinter Is Named to Lead Semiconductor-Equipment Giant
Applied Materials' Morgan Steps Down as Chief Executive
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB105173372154717100,00.html
By DON CLARK
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Applied Materials Inc., the largest maker of equipment used to make semiconductors, has recruited a senior Intel Corp. executive to succeed James Morgan, one of Silicon Valley's longest-tenured chief executive officers.
Michael R. Splinter, 52 years old, was executive vice president of sales for Intel and had been a customer of Applied as the top manager of the big chip maker's manufacturing operations. He will immediately assume the CEO title from Mr. Morgan, 64, who will remain Applied's chairman, and the title of president from Dan Maydan, 67, who will become president emeritus.
The appointment is a surprising changing of the guard for a dominant company that is struggling to find a new growth formula. As chip makers have canceled orders for new factory tools, Applied's sales have fallen nearly 50% since their peak in 2000. The company announced a restructuring in March that will trigger $425 million in charges during the next four quarters.
Mr. Morgan, a highly respected manager who has led the company since 1977, said he had thought "long and hard" about the proper succession plan. A key factor, he said, was a changed environment in which chip makers are simultaneously pressing forward with new technologies while entering partnerships to share the massive costs for doing so.
To react to the changes, Mr. Morgan said, Applied directors concluded that the company needed the perspective of someone who knew how chips were made and how electronics companies were using them in new products. "We needed someone that had a great grasp of our customers, and our customers' customers," he said.
Mr. Splinter has worked for nearly 20 years at Intel. He had been mentioned as a successor to Craig Barrett, Intel's CEO, though President Paul Otellini is widely expected to become Intel's next CEO. The appointment was announced after 4 p.m. Wednesday, when Applied's shares were at $14.62, off 27 cents in Nasdaq Stock Market trading.
Applied's decision to hire an outsider came as a surprise, given what is widely regarded as a strong internal management team. Besides Mr. Maydan, one of the industry's technology pioneers, the company had three executives with identical salaries who were considered CEO candidates -- Joseph R. Bronson, Sasson Somekh and David N.K. Wang. Dwight Blazin, a portfolio manager at Davis Selected Advisers, which holds Applied shares, speculated that picking one of those executives over another might have been more likely to prompt one of them to leave the company.
Intel's Mr. Barrett praised Mr. Splinter's contributions to his company's manufacturing capability. Intel named Jason Chun Shen Chen vice president and co-director of its sales and marketing group.
Write to Don Clark at don.clark@wsj.com
IBM backs Opteron server chip
By John G. Spooner
CNET News.com
April 22, 2003, 11:10 AM PT
Advanced Micro Devices' new Opteron processor has received a major vote of confidence from IBM.
Big Blue on Tuesday announced its intention to use the AMD server chip in future server hardware, including a server platform and high-performance computing clusters.
IBM's decision could pave the way toward greater acceptance of AMD processors in the corporate environment, a goal that has eluded the Sunnyvale, Calif.-based chipmaker for nearly two decades. For years, AMD had difficulty landing its chips in computers for the working world because of recurring manufacturing problems, performance issues and a general reluctance among corporate buyers to try new technology.
AMD's reputation, though, is changing. IBM's decision to adopt Opteron was based on customer feedback, according to Mark Shearer, the company's vice president of eServer systems. Companies have been asking for a server that can deliver relatively high performance, including 64-bit capabilities, for a lower price, Shearer said at AMD's event here to introduce the chip to analysts and the press.
Other companies are lining up behind the chip as well. Fujitsu-Siemens has said it would come out with an Opteron workstation, and Sun Microsystems is looking into using the chip. On Tuesday, RackSaver and other smaller server and workstation makers released products. Meanwhile, Microsoft, Oracle and several Linux companies have pledged to come out with software tweaked for Opteron.
Additionally, IBM is working with AMD on processor manufacturing technology, which analysts say could prevent the sort of manufacturing mishaps that have derailed AMD in the past.
"IBM has invested the most time," said Hector Ruiz, AMD chief executive, in an interiew. "They're all getting close to that. In the next one or two quarters, they'll make a decision on whether or not to offer an Opteron server."
But the company's earlier efforts to take on market leader Intel have often come to a grisly end. While AMD often gains market share and sees profits at the beginning of the life of a new chip, it also soon finds itself swimming in red ink because of aggressive price cuts and technology enhancements from Intel. Opteron was delayed for over a year, and the desktop version of the chip will come to market almost two years late.
In addition, customer enthusiasm for new technology has waned. Microsoft came out with a version of Windows for Digital's Alpha processor at one point, but phased it out after slow sales. IBM stopped offering AMD's Athlon chips in its NetVista desktop line in August 2001. Similarly, IBM started to resell a blade server from RLX Technologies that used chips from Transmeta, but then came out with its own blade server, signed a blade alliance with Intel and cancelled its deal with RLX.
AMD says it will overcome the challenges, particularly because the relatively small size of its processor will make it difficult for Intel to undercut the chip's price.
"The Opteron processor...will bring PC economics to even the most expensive servers," AMD Chairman Jerry Sanders said. Paraphrasing Winston Churchill, he added "never in the history of Microsoft-compatible microprocessors will so few do so much for so many."
IBM will likely offer Opteron in a new server family, alongside its existing Intel-based xSeries servers. The company, though, did not give any details about server hardware or a date of introduction. IBM is believed to be working with Newisys, a server start-up staffed by ex-IBM employees, to design these systems.
AMD has been following Intel for years, delivering its own version of the same kind of processor, based on the x86 architecture pioneered by Intel. Its latest is the Athlon XP, which has been successful in desktop and notebook PCs for consumers and is also offered in some systems for business.
But with the Opteron, and its underlying architecture, AMD has set out to chart its own course, by altering x86 to support 64-bit addressing. This twist allows the chip, and its forthcoming desktop and notebook sibling, to utilize more memory and provides some other performance enhancements. But AMD also designed the chip to support 32-bit software, the current standard for applications like Microsoft Office.
"We promise the AMD Opteron will simplify business by removing all the barriers to 64-bit computing," said Marty Seyer, senior vice president of AMD's server business. "It outperforms the highest published results from both (Intel) Xeon and Itanium,"
The Opteron 800 series will allow manufacturers to build four-processor servers priced below $10,000--a big shift downward in price, Seyer said, offering high performance to more companies. These systems are expected to hit the market later this quarter.
"We're going to play a role in establishing a new price point in four-way servers. Right now, there is a lot of distance between two-way and eight-way servers," said Rob Herb, executive vice president of sales and marketing. "AMD is going to create a new price performance category in the four-way space."
http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1103-997827.html
IBM Steals the Show at AMD's Opteron Launch
http://www.computerwire.com/cgnews/1034FA6109342BA180256D10007A8E90?Highlight=2,AMD
By Timothy Prickett Morgan
The computer business might be maturing, but it can still be surprising. In New York yesterday Advanced Micro Devices duly launched the 64-bit "Hammer" server processors that will be sold under the Opteron brand name.
While tongues have been wagging all around the industry for months that AMD needed and would get the backing of one of the big server vendors for its 64-bit Opteron processors, Big Blue has emerged as the first heavyweight to put its seal of approval on the chip.
Bill Zeitler, the senior vice president of IBM's Systems Group, was quoted in the official AMD press release for the Opteron launch saying that IBM was particularly keen on Opteron because it permitted customers to run 32-bit applications on the same platform as 64-bit applications, allowing them to transition smoothly to 64-bit processing. He went on to say IBM believed this was particularly useful in the high performance computing (HPC) market.
Mark Shearer, the vice president for eServer products who was at the New York event on behalf of Big Blue, said customers had expressed a lot of interest in the Opteron's ability to support 32-bit and 64-bit applications on the same chip, and that is why IBM has decided to back it. He went on to say that high performance at affordable prices was one of the driving factors for acquisitions in the HPC market, and it was a key factor in IBM's decision to back the Opteron.
You might think that IBM is trying to pigeon-hole Opteron into the HPC space, and that appears to be exactly the plan - at least for now. Peter Ungaro, vice president of deep computing sales at IBM, says that the support of 32-bit legacy applications on a 64-bit X86-compatible platform is a real issue for HPC customers and that IBM definitely will start chasing deals with the Opteron machines in the HPC market - what IBM has been calling deep computing ever since the Deep Blue parallel supercomputer whupped Gary Kasparov in a chess match - first and foremost.
The reason is simple. These customers have the budget money, they like Linux (which is ready on the Opterons unlike Windows 2003), and they have the most to gain from the higher performance memory that the Opterons have even when running 32-bit applications. When pressed on the potential for Opteron machines, Ungaro is non-committal. "You never know where it is going to go in the future."
It's hard to argue with that sentiment. No one knows, not even AMD. That's probably why IBM did not divulge any specific plans for using Opterons in its own servers at the Opteron launch today. All Ungaro would confirm is that IBM plans to launch an eServer product using the Opterons and that IBM intends to put Opteron-based machines in the On Demand Supercomputing center it has established in Poughkeepsie, New York, to service customers who want to buy HPC capacity in a utility fashion.
There are a number of possibilities, the most obvious is to resell Opteron-based machines from Newisys Inc, an upstart server company founded in August 2000 to push AMD machines.
Phil Hester is the CEO at Newisys, and he was also the main architect of IBM's RS/6000 Unix product line back in the late 1980s and early 1990s and was also chief technology officer for IBM's PC unit. Newisys has managed to pull in $55m of venture capital to back the company. It has a bunch of smart engineers and sales people from IBM, Dell, Compaq, DEC, SGI, Texas Instruments, and others on the team. And it is smart enough to outsource the manufacturing of its Opteron boxes because it cannot be a low-cost manufacturer. What Newisys doesn't have is a company like IBM pushing those boxes. Sun has been rumored to be thinking about selling the Newisys machines as well, and Dell has to have thought about it, too.
IBM could put Opteron machines of its own design, from Newisys, or a third party supplier into its xSeries line, or it could create special blade servers using the Opterons for its BladeCenter blade chassis. The latter seems the most likely possibility, given that HPC customers like the density and manageability of blade servers compared to racks of standalone servers. IBM has no intention of letting the cat out of the bag regarding when these Opteron machines will ship. Ungaro confirms that IBM intends to ship these machines before the end of the year. Shearer elaborated a little at the AMD event, saying IBM planned to have a supercomputer utility offering as well as clustered Opteron servers that customers could install on their own premises.
Ungaro said that as far as platforms go, Linux was obviously the one most HPC customers would focus on with the Opteron platform, but that the beauty of the Opteron was that it can, like Intel's Pentium chips, support Windows HPC applications as well. Microsoft is starting to dabble in HPC, and has some big institutions like Cornell University helping. He said IBM definitely did not have any plans for supporting its AIX Unix variant on the Opterons, and also said the adoption of Opteron for the HPC market in no way detracted from IBM's commitment to its partnership with Intel, particularly in regard to the 64-bit Itanium processor family. He reiterated statements other IBM executives have made in recent months saying the company would deliver a version of its "Summit" chipset for the Itanium processors later this year; the Summit chipset already supports Intel's Pentium 4 Xeon MP processors.
Ungaro today reaffirmed IBM's commitment to deliver a production version of its DB2 database on the Opterons, but was not at liberty to say what stacks of middleware and applications from IBM's Software Group would be ported to Opteron. A lot obviously depends on the availability of operating systems. Much of the 32-bit code that works on the Athlon chips should already work on the Opterons, if you believe what press releases say.
IBM was not the only partner AMD wheeled out at yesterday's launch. Microsoft reaffirmed its intention to deliver at 64-bit version of Windows Server for Opteron. A beta of the operating systems is due in the middle of this year. Operating support also comes from Linux vendors Red Hat and Suse. Oracle has also thrown its support behind the chip.
Yesterday also saw AMD finally ditch the Hammer umbrella codename for the 32-bit/64-bit line. The vendor will now use AMD64 to describe its entire family of 64-bit processors offering native 32-bit support. Opteron will be the brand name for its server line, which will be extended to include 8-way support later this quarter. In September, it will launch its Athlon 64, aimed at desktop and mobile computers.
© ComputerWireTM 2003 Article Date: 23 Apr 2003
IBM endorses AMD's new server chip
By Dean Takahashi
Mercury News
Advanced Micro Devices won a key endorsement for its 64-bit Opteron microprocessor Tuesday as IBM announced it will launch a server using AMD's chip.
The announcement represents a coup for Sunnyvale-based AMD, which is looking to the Opteron chip to shore up its struggling finances and to chip away at Intel's tight grip on enterprise computer buyers.
The IBM news, as well as the high performance scores that AMD released Tuesday for the chip, could propel AMD to further wins in the server market.
In the past, computer makers have shied from adopting AMD's chips early for fear of angering Intel. But now the situation is different. Intel is struggling through the recession and can't afford to alienate computer makers.
Still, it wasn't a given that AMD would be able to snag a big server vendor.
``AMD needed to bring down a big domino and it did,'' said Mike Feibus, an analyst at TechKnowledge Strategies in Scottsdale, Ariz. ``They had a compelling solution from a technical perspective. But this was also a political issue in terms of who would support AMD.''
In a sense, snaring IBM isn't a surprise because Big Blue has always been one of the most independent companies using Intel chips. It has its own Power series of server chips and was a frequent customer of AMD in the past. It also has a deal to jointly develop chip-manufacturing technology with AMD.
Dell Computer, by contrast, has never bought any AMD chips. And Hewlett-Packard helped Intel develop the Itanium chip architecture. Sun Microsystems is said to be considering adopting the Opteron but the company declined comment Tuesday.
Over time, AMD expects more vendors to adopt the chip in response to demand from corporate customers, said Barry Crume, director of server segment product marketing at AMD.
AMD said that other companies offering Opteron products include Maarssen, Netherlands-based Fujitsu-Siemens, RackSaver in San Diego and Newisys in Austin. Among software vendors, Oracle, IBM and Microsoft said they would support the Opteron.
With more than 300 applications running on its chips, Intel has a head start in the 64-bit space with the Itanium. But AMD positioned the Opteron as capable of running older, 32-bit software at full speed as well as newer 64-bit software. Intel's Itanium can run 64-bit software efficiently but doesn't run 32-bit software at full speed -- a fact that AMD is exploiting with customers who don't want to shift to 64-bit computing overnight.
AMD priced the 200 series version of the Opteron at $283 and up wholesale. That is cheaper than the $690 Intel charges for its fastest 32-bit Xeon microprocessors running at 3.06 gigahertz. AMD said that on most benchmarks, the Opteron could beat Xeon chips, but Intel's Itanium 2 chips could generally beat Opterons.
AMD's stock closed Tuesday at $8.44 a share, up 12 cents on the New York Stock Exchange
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/business/technology/5695407.htm
I don't believe that (as of 10:05 EDT) the market actually knows it yet.
wbmw:
I think IBM's announcement is very positive. It will take the market some time to digest.
d
Four Shares!? Yow! 8P (NT)
Breakeven target moves to $800 million
"-- AMD plans for cost reductions in the quarter sufficient to
achieve its target of reducing its overall quarterly cost
structure to below $800 million."
SUNNYVALE, Calif., Apr 16, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) --
AMD (NYSE:AMD)
today reported sales of $715 million and a net loss of $146 million
for the quarter ended March 30, 2003. The net loss amounted to $0.42
per share.
First quarter sales declined by 21 percent from the first quarter
of 2002 and increased by four percent from the fourth quarter of 2002.
In the first quarter of 2002, AMD reported total sales of $902 million
and a net loss of $9 million, or $0.03 per share. In the fourth
quarter of 2002, AMD reported sales of $686 million and a net loss of
$855 million, or $2.49 per share. Excluding the effects of
restructuring and other charges(1) to show the company's results from
ongoing operations, the fourth quarter net loss was $235 million, or
$0.68 per share.
"In a tough market environment and in a quarter that is typically
seasonally down, we grew our revenue by four percent from the fourth
quarter of 2002," said Robert J. Rivet, chief financial officer. "We
believe we gained market share in both our PC processor and Flash
memory product lines. And we made significant operating improvements
that better position us for a return to profitability.
"Our enhanced AMD Athlon(TM) processor portfolio, along with
increased customer demand, led to a sequential increase of 11 percent
in PC processor sales. And despite a seasonal weakening of the global
market for flash memory solutions, the first quarter was our fourth
consecutive quarter of revenue growth and record bit shipments.
"As projected, we reduced our operating expenses significantly
compared to the fourth quarter of 2002. As a result of our improved
cost structure, along with the increase in sales, EBITDA was a
positive $84 million(1) and our operating loss improved by more than
$90 million(1) in the first quarter as compared with our pro forma
results of the fourth quarter 2002."
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
PC processor sales of $468 million for the quarter increased by 11
percent from the $420 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2002.
AMD showed a significant increase in both unit and dollar sales, based
on record mobile shipments and increased penetration into emerging
markets, led by China.
During the first quarter, AMD commenced production shipments of
AMD Opteron(TM) processors for the server and workstation markets. The
launch of the AMD Opteron processor family will occur in New York on
April 22.
Also in the first quarter, AMD introduced several new processor
offerings including the AMD Athlon XP processor 3000+, the highest
performing desktop PC microprocessor. In addition, AMD introduced 12
new mobile processors including the first AMD Athlon processors
targeted for thin-and-light notebooks. These are the first AMD Athlon
processors targeted for thin-and-light notebooks.
AMD memory sales of $218 million were up for the fourth
consecutive quarter, on increased unit sales driven by our product
portfolio for the cellular phone market and continued demand for
high-end, feature-rich phones.
AMD qualified production on 130 nanometer process technology in
AMD's Fab 25 Flash memory fab in the first quarter and will commence
volume production on 130 nanometer process technology in the second
quarter.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER
-- In March, AMD and Fujitsu Limited announced a Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) to establish a new Flash memory
semiconductor company based on the integration of AMD and
Fujitsu's Flash memory operations, including their existing
FASL joint manufacturing venture.
-- In March, AMD entered the thin and light mobile PC market with
its newly launched line of new, low-voltage mobile AMD Athlon
XP-M processors.
-- In March, Gartner/Dataquest Worldwide Quarterly PC Statistics
for the fourth quarter of 2002 showed that AMD processor-based
desktop and mobile computers increased worldwide unit market
share to 19 percent among buyers of Windows(R) operating
system-based PCs in 2002.
-- In February, the AMD Athlon 64 processor won the
Microprocessor Report Analysts' Choice for Best PC Processor
at the prestigious Microprocessor Report's Analysts' Choice
Awards 2002.
-- In February, AMD introduced the AMD Athlon XP processor 3000+,
the world's highest performing desktop PC processor and
introduced the AMD Athlon MP processor 2600+, the highest
performing multiprocessor in its line of multiprocessors for
servers and workstations.
-- In January, AMD and IBM announced that the two companies had
entered into an agreement to jointly develop chip-making
technologies for use in future high-performance products.
-- In the first quarter, AMD added five infrastructure partners
to the more than 100 companies that have announced support of
AMD Opteron and AMD Athlon processors, including Microsoft,
IBM DB2, RedHat, SuSE, NVIDIA, Epic Games and CA Ingres.
-- In January, AMD introduced the Am29PDL640G, a 64 Mbit
page-mode Flash memory device designed for wireless
applications such as mobile phones and other applications
including television set-top boxes. This Flash memory device
delivers a superior combination of high-performance, long
battery life and sophisticated security.
CURRENT OUTLOOK
AMD's outlook statements are based on current expectations. The
following statements are forward-looking, and actual results could
differ materially. Economic and industry conditions remain uncertain,
and continue to make it particularly difficult to forecast product
demand. The company's current outlook for the second quarter is based
on the following projections:
-- AMD believes it will continue to gain share in the wireless
segment, and expects to achieve its fifth consecutive
quarterly increase in Flash memory revenues.
-- AMD believes that processor sales will be flat to up in the
historically weakest quarter seasonally, based on an improved
product mix and the anticipated benefits of a better-balanced
PC supply chain inventory.
-- AMD plans for cost reductions in the quarter sufficient to
achieve its target of reducing its overall quarterly cost
structure to below $800 million.
AMD TELECONFERENCE
AMD will hold a conference call for the financial community at
2:30 PM Pacific Time today to discuss first quarter financial results.
AMD will provide a real-time audio broadcast of the teleconference on
the Investor Relations page of its web site at http://www.amd.com or
http://www.StreetEvents.com. The web-cast will be available for ten
days after the conference call.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
This release contains forward-looking statements, which are made
pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that
forward-looking statements in this release involve risks and
uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from
current expectations. Risks include the possibility that global
business and economic conditions will worsen resulting in lower than
currently expected sales in the second quarter of 2003; that Intel
Corporation pricing, marketing programs, product bundling, new product
introductions or other activities targeting the company's processor
business will prevent attainment of the company's current PC processor
sales plans; that demand for personal computers and, in turn, demand
for the company's PC processors will be lower than currently expected;
that the sales of AMD PC processors will follow seasonal patterns or
worse in the second quarter despite the availability of a richer mix
of the company's products; that demand for the company's Flash memory
products will be lower than currently expected, particularly in the
high-end cellular telephone sector; that the company will not achieve
sequential growth in sales of Flash memory devices; that the company
may not achieve its current product and technology introduction
schedules including the current schedule for introducing AMD Athlon XP
processors based on the "Barton" core or the AMD Opteron processor
based on AMD 64-bit technology, or the schedule for implementing 90nm
process technology in Fab 30; and that the company may not be able to
successfully implement the new proposed joint venture with Fujitsu,
Ltd. and sustain any benefit from such joint venture. We urge
investors to review in detail the risks and uncertainties in the
company's Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but
not limited to the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended
December 29, 2002.
About AMD
Founded in 1969 and based in Sunnyvale, California, AMD is a
global supplier of integrated circuits for the personal and networked
computer and communications markets with manufacturing facilities in
the United States, Europe, Japan, and Asia. AMD, a Standard & Poor's
500 company, produces microprocessors, Flash memory devices, and
silicon-based solutions for communications and networking
applications.
AMD, the AMD Arrow logo, AMD Athlon, AMD Opteron and combinations
thereof are trademarks of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. in the United
States and other jurisdictions.
Note:(1) As shown in the attached reconciliation of GAAP to
Pro-forma Non-GAAP Consolidated Net Loss.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(Thousands except per share amounts)
Quarter Ended
----------------------------------------------------------------------
March 30, Dec. 29, March 31,
2003 2002 2002
(Unaudited) (Unaudited) (Unaudited)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net sales $ 714,555 $ 686,430 $ 902,073
Cost of sales 496,592 506,613 586,874
Research and development 203,062 244,848 171,882
Marketing, general and
administrative 138,228 194,389 156,860
Restructuring and other
special charges, net 2,146 330,575 --
----------------------------------------------------------------------
840,028 1,276,425 915,616
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Operating loss (125,473) (589,995) (13,543)
Interest and other income, net 6,740 992 9,538
Interest expense (25,805) (22,296) (12,158)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss before income taxes and equity
in net income of joint venture (144,538) (611,299) (16,163)
Provision (benefit) for income taxes 2,936 243,470 (4,041)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Loss before equity in net income
of joint venture (147,474) (854,769) (12,122)
Equity in net income of joint venture 1,118 29 2,959
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net loss $(146,356) $ (854,740) $ (9,163)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net loss per common share
Basic $ (0.42) $ (2.49) $ (0.03)
Diluted $ (0.42) $ (2.49) $ (0.03)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Shares used in per share calculation
-- Basic 345,012 343,949 340,806
-- Diluted 345,012 343,949 340,806
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
RECONCILIATION OF GAAP TO PRO FORMA NON-GAAP CONSOLIDATED NET LOSS
----------------------------------------------------------------------
(Thousands)
Quarter Ended
----------------------------------------------------------------------
March 30, Dec. 29, March 31,
2003 2002 2002
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net loss (GAAP) $(146,356) $(854,740) $ (9,163)
Adjustments:
Restructuring and other special charges 2,146 330,575 --
Impaired investments -- 3,550 --
R&D expense -- 42,000 --
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net loss before income taxes (144,210) (478,615) (9,163)
Deferred tax asset write-off -- 243,470 --
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net loss (Pro Forma Non-GAAP) $(144,210) $(235,145) $ (9,163)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------
RECONCILIATION OF EBITDA TO PRO FORMA EBITDA
----------------------------------------------------------------------
(Thousands)
Quarter Ended
----------------------------------------------------------------------
March 30, Dec. 29, March 31,
2003 2002 2002
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Operating loss $(125,473) $(589,995) $(13,543)
Depreciation and amortization
*** STORY TRUNCATED due to excessive length. ***
-
more details on earnings
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. - Sunnyvale, Calif.
1st Quar March 30:
2003 2002
Sales $714,555,000 $902,073,000
Net income a (146,356,000) (9,163,000)
Avg shrs (diluted) 345,012,000 340,806,000
Shr earns
Net income a (.42) (.03)
Figures in parentheses are losses.
a. Includes restructuring and other special charges of $2.1 million. Excluding the charges, the loss was $144.2 million.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) reported a first-quarter loss narrower than analysts' consensus loss estimate of 48 cents a share. Revenue exceeded the consensus estimate of $683.2 million and was 4% higher than fourth-quarter revenue.
In January, the chip maker forecasted first-quarter revenue flat to nominally higher than the fourth quarter.
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
April 16, 2003 16:00 ET (20:00 GMT)
US Chip Companies Expected To Meet First-Quarter Views
By DONNA FUSCALDO
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK -- Despite the war in Iraq and the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in Asia, most U.S. chip makers are expected to meet analysts' earnings and sales estimates when they report first-quarter results later this month.
Although worries abounded in the beginning of the quarter that chip makers would be stuck with excess inventory, those fears were alleviated when companies started to stock up on semiconductors in an effort to prevent problems if the war interrupted shipments.
Still, the flurry of buying, which will help chip companies meet expectations in their seasonally slow first quarter, could make things worse in the second quarter.
"There was a lot of stocking by distributors, but end demand for the products the chips go into, whether it's storage, cell phones, PCs or networking gear, wasn't that good in the March quarter," said Daniel Niles, an analyst at Lehman Brothers Inc. As a result, "you'll see most semiconductor companies reporting a good March quarter but having trouble with their guidance."
Analysts are bracing for cautious forecasts. Last month, Joseph Osha, an analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co., regarded his sales growth estimate for the second quarter as conservative. Now, he thinks he may have been too optimistic. Osha was predicting sales would increase 3% to 4% in the second quarter from the first quarter.
Industry watchers note the second quarter is usually the toughest period for chip makers. They say the war in Iraq and the spread of SARS could create more uncertainty. SARS would affect chip companies since a lot of the manufacturing takes place in Asia.
No Surprises Expected From Intel
While Intel Corp. (INTC) is expected to meet the Thomson First Call estimate for the first quarter of earnings of 12 cents a share on $6.7 billion in sales, analysts say Intel will be guarded about the second quarter.
"We believe June quarter revenues guidance is likely to be down 2% to 3% versus current consensus expectations of down 0.6%," Lehman's Niles wrote in a recent report.
The analyst did note that some of the weakness could be offset by Intel's ability to sell more expensive, higher-margin laptop and server chips.
In the first quarter a year ago, Intel earned 15 cents a share on $6.8 billion in sales.
Niles does not own shares of Intel, but Lehman does have an investment banking relationship with the company.
In the case of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), analysts expect the company will meet targets for the first quarter, in part because it may have picked up flash memory chip business from Intel.
In its mid-quarter update early last month, Intel said that while sales of computer chips appear to be coming in a bit better than expectations, a price increase in flash memory dampened sales.
In January, Intel raised its flash memory chip prices by 20% to 40%, expecting an increase in demand. As a result of the price hikes, companies turned to other sources for their memory chips, which could bode well for AMD.
"All things considered they (AMD) probably should do OK in the first quarter and might pick up flash (business) from Intel," said Dan Scovel, a Needham & Co. analyst, who doesn't own shares of AMD.
Scovel expects AMD will report a loss of 38 cents a share on $691 million in sales for the first quarter, much better than the consensus estimate of a loss of 49 cents a share on $680.7 million in sales. What AMD will say about the second quarter is up for grabs, Scovel said.
"They've been pounding the table for six to nine months that they will be close to break-even in the second quarter," said Scovel. But the biggest issue for AMD is reducing expenses, he said.
In the year-ago first quarter, AMD lost 3 cents a share on $902 million in sales. Needham doesn't have an investment banking relationship with AMD.
As for Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), most Wall Street watchers expect the Dallas chip maker will meet its targets, especially since the company reconfirmed its outlook in mid-March. The average earnings estimate of analysts, according to First Call, is 6 cents a share on $2.14 billion in sales. In the year-ago first quarter, Texas Instruments earned a penny a share on $1.83 billion in sales.
Looking ahead, Clark Fuhs and Daniel Amir, analysts at Fulcrum Global Partners, both whom do not own shares of Texas Instruments, said the June quarter is seasonally strong for the chip maker's calculators and sensors and controls businesses, which could contribute three to five percentage points of revenue growth in the quarter.
Overall, the two analysts expect Texas Instruments to say it expects sales will increase 4% to 5% in the second quarter from the first quarter.
Fulcrum does not have an investment banking relationship with the company.
Modest Improvements Expected From Equipment Makers
Chip equipment makers are also expected to have little surprises when they report quarterly earnings. But some analysts expect their outlooks to show modest improvements.
Ali Irani, an analyst at CIBC World Markets Corp., expects chip equipment companies will post a 2% to 3% increase in sales for the first quarter. He also expects the companies to say they will see even more improvement in the second quarter.
Still, while a 2% to 3% increase in sales is only a modest uptick, it is better than the 30% decline in revenue seen in both 2001 and 2002. Irani said chip equipment makers will see improvements in seasonal volume as well as a migration by chip makers to more advanced process technology.
Irani expects that Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), one of the world's largest chip equipment makers, will meet his fiscal second-quarter targets of earnings of 2 cents a share and $1.05 billion in sales. That's the same as the First Call consensus estimate. In the year-ago period, Applied Materials weighed in with earnings of 3 cents a share on $1.15 billion in sales.
Irani, who doesn't own shares of Applied Materials, noted that the company's recent restructuring plan will lower its break-even point by $100 million. CIBC doesn't have an investment banking relationship with Applied Materials.
-By Donna Fuscaldo, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5253; donna.fuscaldo@dowjones.com
Updated April 10, 2003 10:14 a.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,BT_CO_20030410_004484,00.html
re WSJ article: http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB104991659014597200,00.html
Microsoft Shows Support
For Chips Made by AMD
By DON CLARK
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Microsoft Corp. signaled that it is firmly backing both horses in the latest big microchip race, a boon to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and another sign the software maker is less reliant on Intel Corp.
The Redmond, Wash., company said it will deliver test versions of two operating systems by mid-2003 for a long-awaited microprocessor family dubbed Hammer, AMD's first chips that process 64 bits of data at a time as well as 32 bits.
snip ...
Write to Don Clark at don.clark@wsj.com
Updated April 10, 2003
CSFB Upgrades AMD on flash exposure
heard on CNBC
N. American chip equipment orders up in February
book-to-bill ratio, of 0.99
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030318/tech_semiconductors_equipment_1.html
(Updates with more details, background)
SAN FRANCISCO, March 18 (Reuters) - Orders for semiconductor production and testing equipment from North American manufacturers inched up in February, but have been essentially flat for six months as the chip industry struggles to recover from its worst ever downturn, a trade group said on Tuesday.
The three-month average of worldwide orders was $782 million, up 6 percent from January revised orders of $739 million and up 6 percent from the $737 million in orders posted a year earlier, according to Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI).
Equipment billings, a measure of the value of equipment accepted by customers and booked as revenue, was $793 million in February, up 1 percent from January's revised level of $784 million and down 3 percent from $818 million a year earlier.
The statistics indicate a ratio of orders to billings, known as the book-to-bill ratio, of 0.99, which means that $99 worth of new orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month, the San Jose, California-based trade group said.
"Bookings of new semiconductor manufacturing equipment have remained essentially flat for the last six months and as a result, a number of equipment manufacturers have announced recently plans for further consolidating and restructuring of operations and product offerings," Stanley Myers, president and chief executive of SEMI said in a statement.
"While the bookings outlook appears sluggish, over 20 new fabs are expected to begin production in the next two years," he added.
Worldwide chip equipment sales fell about 32 percent in 2002 from $28 billion in 2001 as chip makers cut back on plans to expand and upgrade factories, according to SEMI.
On Monday, Applied Materials Inc. (NasdaqNM:AMAT - News), the world's biggest maker of computer chip production tools, said it would close offices and cut 2,000 jobs, or 14 percent of its workforce, in its second major round of layoffs in five months.
Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - News), the biggest purchaser of chip production equipment, has said it would cut its capital spending budget by as much as $1.2 billion from last year's level of $4.7 billion.
North American manufacturers of chip equipment represent more than half the total world market.
While considered by some as a poor indicator of chip equipment sales, the monthly book-to-bill numbers serve as a guide to the severity of the current chip slump.
Data released last last week from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board showed that fab utilization at semiconductor and related electronic component plants in the United States rose slightly in February to 68.4 percent from 66.5 percent the month before.
A Tale of 2 Bartons
Snagged 2 bartons (2500+) last week. Put 1 in a brand spanking new Shuttle SN41G2. Nice box. Quiet, fast little, and complete. Well mostly. for all the gozintas and gozoutas there was no parallel port (nor do I think there shoud be). Added a cool centronics to usb cable that just needed a driver install to operate transparently in XP. Ghosted the boss's old drive to a new one for the shuttle and booted to the XP install cd. Let it have its way with the shuttle for about 35 minutes and I was done.
Barton number 2 is having a more interesting journey. It now sits on an ABIT KR7A. This board sports the VIA KT266A chipset and oficially only supports up to a Palomino 2100+ or Thoroughbred 2000+ (odd no?):
"Building on the proven power and reliability of the VIA Apollo KT266, the VIA Apollo KT266A further raises the performance bar AMD Athlon™ and AMD Duron™ processor based systems. The VIA Apollo KT266A is the first VIA chipset to feature Performance Driven Design, which includes tightened timings and deeper queues to greatly increase memory and system bus performance. Supporting DDR200/266 memory and a complete range of 200/266MHz Front Side Bus AMD Athlon™ and AMD Duron™ processors, the VIA Apollo KT266A provides lightning fast access to system memory and increased overall system performance.
* This series of products have been discontinued. "
The Barton 2500+ replaced a Pally 2000+. The system booted with an 'unknown' cpu type at 1100 mhz. Makes sense, that's 11 times 100 fsb. Of course it should be running at 11 times 166 fsb.
BIOS games: I bought the KR7A for its o'clocking abillities and never used the tweaks on the pally. Now the Barton required o'cing the board to reach even its supported potential. Problem is when I forced the fsb up to 166, the stability was wanting. At 11x 166 the Barton was running at the spec-ed 1830 mhz. Everything was out of spec due to limited multipliers for the rest of the mainboard. So I brought the FSB down to 160, and just for grins I boosted the mulitplier to 12.5 (never having touched the Bartons bridges or pins) lo and behold the thing booted and is running stable (so far) at 2GHZ at theses SI read temps:
Temperature Sensor(s)
Board Temperature : 26.0°C / 78.8°F
CPU Temperature : 42.0°C / 107.6°F
Sandra also had the following warnings:
Performance Tips
Notice N224 : SMBIOS/DMI information may be inaccurate.
Warning W2541 : FSB exceeds Chipset rated speed. Reduce FSB.
Warning W2523 : Memory bus speed exceeds memory rated speed. Reduce memory bus speed.
Warning W2542 : Memory bus speed exceeds Chipset rated speed. Reduce FSB/memory multiplier.
Warning W2545 : Large memory modules should be Registered/Buffered.
Warning W2521 : AGP bus speed is too high. Reduce FSB speed or FSB/AGP multiplier.
Warning W2520 : PCI bus speed is too high. Reduce FSB speed or FSB/PCI multiplier.
because:
AGP Bus
Version : 2.00
Speed : 80MHz
Current Data Transfer Rate : 2x 80MHz (160MHz data rate)
Side Band Enabled : Yes
Fast-Writes Enabled : No
Aperture Size : 64MB
PCI Bus(es)
Version : 2.10
No Bridges : 1
PCI Bus 0 : 32-bit PCI (40MHz)
Multiplier : 1/4x
The point of all this is that Barton 2500+ is the most fun for me since the old 300A. Can't offer the code on the Barton since I didn't look. Next is an nforce2 upgrade, but not for a couple months when the rev 2's come out. Running at 2GHZ, 42c with old Palomino's stock retail cooler suggests a lot more headroom.
Here are some CPU-Z screen shots:
dave h
CHIP BATTLE (The Itanic battle according to Fortune)
See This Chip?
It's Intel's most powerful processor ever. It has the ability to take on IBM, sink Sun, make or break HP, and crush or revive AMD. It's keeping every CEO in computing up at night. And it's just getting started. The multibillion-dollar battle between Itanium 2 and its rivals has begun.
FORTUNE
Monday, February 3, 2003
By David Kirkpatrick
http://www.fortune.com/fortune/print/0,15935,418480,00.html
........
But Dell isn't following its archrival HP and betting all its chips on Intel. For the first time the $34-billion-a-year company seems to be weighing whether to offer AMD's Opteron chip--either instead of or as well as Itanium. "What makes this different from past AMD discussions is that until now AMD's value proposition has been Intel compatibility at a lower cost," says Randy Groves, Dell's chief technology officer, who also runs its business selling enterprise products. "Now it's not a pricing discussion. This is something Intel doesn't have."
Yet Dell will commit to nothing. Its executives get cagey when discussing how AMD is playing in Austin. Says Rollins: "There is a lot of customer interest. We are looking very closely at AMD's products right now." He then goes on to say that AMD still has to prove that the chip performs and that it can make it consistently in volume. And CEO Michael Dell, collared in a hallway at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, mused, "The customers up until now who have accepted AMD have been more consumer than business. So what are the chances that AMD will jump from the consumer desktop to the business server?" Not very good, was the strong implication. "But we're open to whatever our customers want," concludes Dell as a writer for a Chinese magazine thrusts a digital recorder under his nose.
Perhaps the most surprising source of enthusiasm for AMD is Microsoft. It's easy to think of the software powerhouse as hand in glove with Intel. But Microsoft's main interest will always be selling more of its software--or getting consumers to upgrade their Windows operating systems--and AMD may be about to give it a great opportunity. Microsoft planned to announce in early February that it will soon start shipping a version of Windows for AMD's 64-bit chips. Jim Allchin, the man in charge of Microsoft's operating systems, calls the performance of software on the AMD machines "pretty amazing." Microsoft took applications written for today's 32-bit chips and ran them on an Opteron server loaded with the new Windows 64-bit operating system. The programs performed considerably better than the same ones using 32-bit Windows. Microsoft's new operating system allows any application to reach deeper into memory. "We can give any 32-bit application an additional gigabyte of memory, and you don't have to write a single byte of code," says Allchin. Programs written especially for 64 bits get further "dramatic performance advantages," he says.
...........
In mid-January, IBM struck an agreement with AMD that roiled an already confused market. Big Blue announced it would be sharing technology and manufacturing know-how with AMD, potentially opening the door for AMD's Opteron and Athlon 64 chips to be built in IBM's plants. That could help keep IBM's fabs humming--something IBM needs--and could make it harder for Intel to convince customers that they must junk their existing software and make the big leap to Itanium. "Backward compatibility almost always wins over a radical shift," says IBM's Zeitler. "Customers want to protect the investment that's been made."
If IBM helps Opteron, it could also force Intel's hand and create an awkward choice for HP. Intel is widely believed to have a contingency plan in place: a 64-bit chip, reportedly called Yamhill, that features the same Pentium compatibility as AMD's Opteron. If Opteron takes off, the thinking goes, it's only a matter of time before Intel unleashes Yamhill. And the better Yamhill does, the less software writers would feel the need to write programs that run on Itanium. Sitting in a sun-dappled room in Davos, Fiorina remains sanguine. She says there's no reason that HP couldn't ship Opteron-based servers. "People misunderstand," she says. "We don't have a gun to our head. We will migrate at the pace our customers want."
Whether Itanium thrives, dies, or cedes its place to Yamhill, two outcomes are likely: Sun gets hurt and Dell doesn't. Nobody predicts McNealy's total departure from the scene--his company has enough customers and software to stay alive. Change in technology, as many point out, is evolutionary, seldom revolutionary. The evolution in Dell's case will be its steady increase in market share, moving up the corporate ladder with its stock of industry-standard parts. Whatever chip catches on is what Dell will use.
For Intel, the game is just beginning. The rumble in the server room is only going to get louder.
http://www.fortune.com/fortune/print/0,15935,418480,00.html
Intel Expects Better Fourth Quarter Results
Posted 12/03/02 at 6:28 pm by Anton
Despite of the current poor state of computer hardware market, Intel told analysts that their fourth quarter results will be slightly better. The Santa Clara-based company’s spokesperson declared that the revenue growth will achieve up to 6% sequentially, according to a report from SG Cowen. However, the Wall Street observers are less optimistic and expect 3% growth in sales in the fourth quarter.
Intel’s third-quarter 2002 revenue was $6.5 billion, 3% up compared to the second quarter this year. Although the demand on personal computer intended hardware does not seem to be high during the quarter, there may be some really positive trends on other markets, including server and handheld devices markets.
All in all, expect Intel to report $6.7 to 6.9 billion sales this quarter. Analysts also think that the largest semiconductor maker on Earth will earn about $0.15 per share during the quarter, up $0.05 sequentially.
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/story.html?id=1038958118
is this a "scoop" of tomorrow's update?
d
IBM, Chartered strike 12-inch deal on 90nm, 65nm processes
Press release; Jane Wang, DigiTimes.com [Thursday 28 November 2002]
[compare and contrast this deal with the AMD-UMC partnership .... ]
IBM and Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world’s third-largest silicon foundry, this week announced a joint development and manufacturing agreement that covers 90nm and 65nm logic processes for production on 12-inch wafers. The multi-year agreement may be extended to include 45nm technology, said the companies.
The deal will allow the Singapore-based foundry to delay test production in its 12-inch Fab 7 until late in the third quarter of 2004 and instead gain 12-inch experience at IBM’s latest 12-inch facility in East Fishkill, New York. Chartered will be able to offer its customers some capacity in IBM’s new facility, while IBM expects to reciprocally rely on Chartered’s Fab 7 for additional capacity.
IBM and Chartered said the deal is aimed at achieving scale, cycle time and cost efficiencies in advanced process technology development and 12-inch manufacturing, while providing customers multiple sources of supply.
To assist foundry customers in designing with the new technologies, the two companies said they would work together with third-party providers of design tools and open-standard formats to help customers be able to move products between the two companies for production.
Financial details of the agreement were not disclosed.
“This agreement is intended to help our customers by making our advanced technologies more readily available for use in their applications,” said John Kelly, senior vice president and group executive, IBM Technology Group, in a statement.
“Chartered customers gain an enhanced total product solution and earlier access to 90nm technologies on 300mm [12-inch],” said Chia Song Hwee, president and CEO of Chartered.
The agreement also adds design support from foundries to cooperation on manufacturing.
The baseline 90nm technology is targeted for 12-inch production in East Fishkill in the third quarter of 2003. Details of 65nm development efforts will be disclosed to customers in the fourth quarter of 2003.
http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/Article2.asp?datePublish=2002/11/28&pages=PR&seq=201
Given that an AMD guy told me straight out that we could expect to see a Hammer under the xMas trees this year, all I can say to the Digitimes hammer roll-out estimates is Show Me!
And then I'll wait for someone else to confirm it because I won't believe my own eyes.
d
Springdale changes will put pressure on SiS, VIA and AMD
Charles Chou, Las Vegas; Christy Lee, DigiTimes.com [Friday 22 November 2002]
http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/MailHome.asp?datePublish=2002/11/22&pages=08&seq=42
Intel’s latest specification changes in its Springdale chipset are expected to affect not only Taiwanese chipset designers’ product planning but also the new K8-core platform from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Instead of the original 677MHz FSB (front-side bus) speed and dual-channel DDR333 memory architecture, Intel on November 15 informed its motherboard clients that its upcoming Springdale chipsets will support an 800MHz FSB and dual-channel DDR400.
Taiwanese chipset designers Silicon Integrated Systems (SiS) and VIA Technologies may both feel the impact, industry sources said. SiS, though having Pentium 4 technology licensing from Intel, will need to adjust its product designs and change the FSB standard of its new-generation chipsets, including the SiS648FX and SiS655, from 677MHz to 800MHz.
Meanwhile, due to the abruptness of Intel’s roadmap change, sources said that SiS may not be able to completely catch up with Intel’s schedule and may thus see its shipment target affected in the first quarter of 2003, considering the company’s output capability and production yield rate.
Pressure on VIA will come from its higher shipment dependence on AMD-platform products, as it has not obtained P4 technology licensing. If AMD loses market share, VIA’s overall shipment performance will be affected.
That situation may arise if AMD is unable to fully supply the new K8 processors when Intel formally introduces its Springdale platform, board makers said. Like the recently-updated Springdale products, AMD’s K8 processors support 800MHz FSBs as well. If AMD fails to offer enough processors on the market, Intel is likely to further expand its market share with the new Springdale products.
AMD plans to release about 100,000 K8 processors in the first quarter of 2003, rising to 300,000 units in the second quarter and five million units in the third.