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Looks like Spain is deteriorating
London, 30 June 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed Spain's Aaa local and foreign currency government bond ratings on review for possible downgrade.
Moody's decision to initiate this review was prompted by (1) the deteriorating (short-term and long-term) economic growth prospects; (2) the challenges the government faces in achieving its fiscal targets; and (3) concerns over the impact of rising funding costs over the medium term.
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A long hot summer
This one has closely followed the blowout in Mexico storyline
At this stage:
(IXTOC) In the initial stages of the spill, an estimated 30,000 barrels of oil per day were flowing from the well. In July 1979, the pumping of mud into the well reduced the flow to 20,000 barrels per day, and early in August the pumping of nearly 100,000 steel, iron, and lead balls into the well reduced the flow to 10,000 barrels per day. Pemex claimed that half of the released oil burned when it reached the surface, a third of it evaporated, and the rest was contained or dispersed.[1] Mexican authorities also drilled two relief wells into the main well to lower the pressure of the blowout, however the oil continued to flow for three months following the completion of the first relief well.[2]
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Looks like higher pressure in this blowout is going to make it a closer call than BP expects. I'm wishing them the best of luck and have some faith in Boots & Coots taking over at this stage.
About BP's relief well
from today:
BP Senior Vice President Kent Wells said Monday that the rig will drill an additional 900 feet down before crews cut in sideways and start pumping heavy mud to try and stop the flow of oil from the damaged well.
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Heavy mud, again? I thought it didn't work earlier because of the unprecendented pressure at the well head. Another broken promise from the BP boyz and the stock will implode like a busted well head.
Gold selling off?
zab, are you looking at a S&P level to buy some longs? 1040 has been mentioned by a few talking heads.
Cash looks like a good place to be.
Mossy, thanks for the hurricane ideas
OII is one I like and have been trading for daily scalps. Buy the dips and book quick gains. Earnings on this one are holding up during the current crises. The bots being used at the BP site belong to them.
OII will also be a big benefactor should a Hurricane pass the oil drilling patch. Their bots will be used to check wells for damage. They also have more assets that are going to be used in cleanup and repair.
Played one roundtrip earlier and looking for an end of day meltdown today. I'm guessing the funds are seeing outflows as casual investors are seeing a negative return popping up for 2010. Remember, everyone can check those portfolios daily on the internet. A few of my friends are looking to move their IRA's away from equity risk.
Interesting days and a hot summer ahead.
Looks like Cedar Key will be OK
NOAA puts out an oil spill forcast. The northwest winds from Alex will likely push the oil into LA. The Governor and LA politicians are the ones now screaming for drilling to resume, now. Good to see they get the oil they want. La politicians playing their games and looking for payouts. Can't they at least wait until the Government inspectors that are so chumy with big oil are fired.
Too bad areas of Florida are suffering from LA politician"s greed.
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/book_shelf/2240_TMF72-2010-06-26-2100.pdf
The nation needs the Gulf Oil. That same need will be here for the next 50 years. Feels like we are playing that Wall Street "next quarters earnings" mentality.
I'm pro drill with best possible practices. BP may be the anomaly.
My favorite site to follow Hurricanes
Forecast for Alex: which model should you trust?
While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
As of today the site is favoring the more northerly landing with only a 10% chance of it landing as a major storm.
Could be a Hurricane Season to remember
Hottest March, April and May on record
http://www.sciencedaily.com/search/?keyword=hottest+month+on+record
Anyone have an investment that aligns with a bad hurricane season?
Slash government deficits by 50% by 2013
Sunday June 27, 2010, 3:56 pm
TORONTO (AP) -- Wary of slamming on the stimulus brakes too quickly but shaken by the European debt crisis, world leaders pledged on Sunday to slash government deficits in the most industrialized nations in half by 2013, with wiggle room to meet the goal.
They generally sided with cutting spending and raising taxes, despite warnings from President Barack Obama that too much austerity too quickly could choke off the global recovery.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/World-leaders-pledging-to-apf-1514676877.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
Kiss those retirement benefits goodbye. The French are protesting about a retirement age being moved to (62). The Pack of Deficit Wolves will be focused on those pie in the sky benefits still on sovereign books.
Never heard of a Residiential Fuel Cell, until you posted
Found an interesting site for others that may be interested.
http://www.houselogic.com/articles/tax-credits-residential-fuel-cells/
Sounds interesting, if the tax credits get bumped up significantly.... Any investment angles on this one?
Another article
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/02/bloom-fuel-cell/
If the dollar is about to be debased this looks like a worthwhile installation if the M&R are reasonable. From the article:
“Without incentives, we calculate electricity would cost $0.13/kWh to $0.14/kWh, with about $0.09/kWh from system cost and about $0.05/kWh coming from fuel cost,”
Looks like the Baltic cut through support
Nice chart, thanks for posting
Austerity budgets are replacing deficit spending. Looks like Baltic Dry Index is reflecting exporters expectations in the coming months.
basserdan, nice chart
Breaking that lower band as austerity packages are being spelled out. The G-20 meeting is coming and the US will be the only stimulus voice.
End of quarter
When volume dips they walk 'em up. The quarterly bonus game.
basserdan, thanks for the chart
Looks like the Baltic Dry Index is forcasting confirming the austerity talk coming from most of the G-20 members.
Short term I suspect Wall Street is fighting to hold the market up to paint the quarterly books and book a fat bonus.
Thursday, last day to walk 'em up for EOQ
Took home some longs. Russell Rebalance is also Friday at close. Markets held up well in the face of some ugly news.
GLTA, manana
Russell Rebalance coming Friday
Some hard dips in stocks about to see forced buying Friday could be a nice play. Of course, I need that dip.
NLST, TRTG (Targacet), HOKU and LLEN are some I'm watching. Dumped them all in a recent panic.
10:35 - Here comes Ben's final act
He's out of helicopters and can only fly a kite at this point.
zab, any fear of short term deflation? Putting some of my cash into silver coins becomes more interesting by the day. Any suggestions?
Lee, the soccer flops make basketball flops look tame
It seems like every other meeting of players on the field results in someone taking a flop to draw a penalty.
The game would improve a 100% if after games the officials reviewed video for flagrant flops and penalize the players.
The game will never make it on American TV. No commercial breaks.
23:41 before the Fed update, nail biting
What kind of toxic debt will Ben assume in the name of taxpayers? It's worked so well in the past.
A market leaning heavily short may be ripe for a spike? Just because they can.
Sorry tantal
I just saw how today's market closes. I'll save it for your surprise.
It was a great game. Plenty of action that you will want to see.
Cincy, the numbers are coming with unprecedented stimulus for real estate
Deficit dollars unable to overcome the rot of Wall Street's subprime mess. Time to face the music and quit bailing out losers.
Disgusting day.
GOAL USA up 1
Hope everyone is watching the World Cup
zab - it was you that got me hooked on the the Dry Baltic Index
CNBC seems to be oblivious to one of the best leading indicators you can follow. Any sense on where it's going? Can Holiday shipping turn it around?
Still wondering what kind of reservoirs exists in deepwater
Looking at this one well with the potential of 100,000 barrels of production. BP alone has two other wells in seperate reservoirs in production with this kind of potential.
Prudhoe Bay numbers:
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/us/bp_us_english/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/a/A03_prudhoe_bay_fact_sheet.pdf
Keep in mind there is a lot more drilling the Big Oils can't wait to crank back up. Anxious to drill despite the costs hitting BP? I you would expect the drillers would be more cautious about cranking the drilling back up. Does the US have it's own Saudi Arabia beneath deep water Gulf Wells? Seeing the high flow in the blowout I'm also guessing a high recovery rate in these reservoirs.
What Geithner isn't likely to cover on TARP
A lot of the TARP banks are in real trouble.
If this money was loaned from private institutions rather than from the taxpayer this would be called a default.
The statistics, compiled by SNL Financial from U.S. Treasury data, showed 91 banks and thrifts skipped the May dividend payment under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. It was the first missed payment for 23 of the banks; for the others, it was at least their second miss.
The number of banks missing their TARP payments rose for the third straight quarter. In February, 74 banks deferred their payments; 55 deferred last November.
SNL Financial's analysis found 20 banks have missed four or more payments since the program began in 2008, while eight banks have missed five payments.
Baltic Dry Index, bollinger bands
The upper band looks ready to roll over. Could be an interesting short term period.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Should trend up with Holiday orders. A big emotional dip at this point could be worth playing BALT long?
Baltic Dry Index, forward looking touble
Shipping stocks declined after the Baltic Dry Index of rates to transport commodities fell 3.5 percent in London yesterday, taking its 17-day loss to 38 percent. That was the gauge’s longest losing streak since April 2009.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
If there is a PPT
They should be stepping into the market in the final 20. I really thought the China revaluation was the final card to prevent a whiff of deflation.
VIX moving up also
I don't think anyone expected today's move. I suspect Political moves are coming and the precious metals will benefit.
zab, I think you're long silver?
Gold falling, not your everyday decline
A whiff of deflation about to spook the markets? Goldman Sachs and friends not supporting the markets tells me the smart money has picked up something on their trading radars.
Gold down in US dollars when China announces it will return to a float??? Should be interesting to see how the Asian markets react tonight.
The China card has been played
Shocked to see the markets not responding. Probably more shocking for the Big Houses wanting to unload some unwanted shares.
Feels like a big statement being made today.
Yuan update, something doesn't pass the smell test
China's central bank said Sunday it would maintain a stable exchange rate and didn't anticipate major changes in the value of the yuan, a day after saying it would manage the currency more flexibly.
-how's that for a loss of confidence in the new world of stimulus economics?
China achieved maximum impact
Earlier in the week China made it clear that China's currency policy would not bend to international pressure.
Today:
"China to allow more exchange rate flexibility"
Rivals those 1/2 point cuts Bernanke would use when markets were leaning heavily short. Dow 11,000 plus on it's way just in time for quarterly oulooks to give a positive slant with the news out of China? Throw in the Euro Bank Stress Test results to boost the corporate outlooks for a stronger Euro.
Looks like a good week to be long equities and short the dollar.
Re: how do we go about fixing this corruption
The old catch 22 that goes hand in hand with politics & wall street. It would cost to much to fix. "Their" safe.
Re: dynamics for housing
The stimulus package used $8000 of tax money to prop up new home constrution. Thus saving the banks and builders that thrived on the subprime bonanza that the tax payers at also paying for.
I read somewhere that you get $100 return on every $1 you spend to lobby Washington. Builders have a strong lobby.
A black swan spotted in France
If Spain even thinks about asking for help the problems in France will be exposed. Word is France played the same derivatives game as Greece to hide their deficits.
Euro 125 may ring the bell for this rally, wish I had the bank account needed to play the currency markets. A little early in the Forex leads to a quick death.
Finreg - hope they ask one question
How do the big houses books trading gains that make Bernie Madoff look conservative? We all know manipulation is illegal.
Speaking of those incredible trading records. BP had one major seller before the public knew about the month leading up to the explosion.
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP ... 3/31/2010 6,695,882 (4,887,610)
Is there anyway to find out what their Caymen based Hedge Funds shorted prior to the BP disaster?
Lakers are missing a healthy Bynum
Bynum looks half speed and the Celtics are now looking dominant. If I were in Vegas I would take the spread.
Buddie, about NLST
market cap is about 50% cash
recently settled a lawsuit with Texas Instruments on good terms. Looks like they want a good business name not a reputation as a patent terrorist.
also in court with Google and a few others.
Tiny company only needs one nice contract to really move into respectable member of the cloud computing world. Limited knowledge on the tech end. Have a close friend in the management end of a Big Tech. Will get his input when I get home from a mini vacation.
Huge volume on the recent pop. Now it's pulling back nicely on low volume and may even spook traders into selling lower as they see the red on their mo-mo buy.
Buyers are finding this one lately
http://www.mffais.com/stock/netlist-inc.html
55% new owners
11% increased positions
HTM - geothermal energy
Needs cash up front to produce energy cheaper than coal.
$65M market cap
On June 10, 2010, U.S. Geothermal Inc. (the "Company") was offered a conditional commitment for a $102.2 -million loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy ("DOE") to construct the planned 22-megawatt-net power plant at Neal Hot Springs in Eastern Oregon. The conditional commitment was offered through the DOE's Loan Programs Office. The Neal Hot Springs development project is the first geothermal project to be offered a conditional commitment for a loan guarantee under DOE's Title XVII loan guarantee program, which was created by the Energy Policy Act of 2005 to support the deployment of innovative clean energy technologies. Issuance of the loan guarantee is subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, including the following:http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100615/htm8-k.html
One future, jobs created by developing energy sources in the US. How log can we pay $650B a year to import oil?