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WHEN IS this short bubble gonna burts, here's some short etfs' that are hittign all time highs im looking to short them cause they drop like a rock when the market turns to the upside
DUG
EEV
SRS
FXP
SMN
the dow gonna closed down -666 just to slap us on the face
those freaking democrats doing this to us since they dont have any money to trade like us .
why cant we fired BERNANKE he suks
reduce capital gains tax!!!! and increase write offs on losse3s!!!! sweet im voting for the white guy then
CAL earnings tomorrow delta and american arilines reported today and they're green so im betting that CAL will be green tomorrow
time to double down
i was just looking at that
interestign article makes sense this one of the reasons i think oil its going to stay down under 100 fo r a very long time
with alot of items shrinking in size and becoming more efficient theer sno need for huge trucks and tanks reducing demand for oil
How the iPod Is Killing Air Freight
Small, compact electronics are in high demand, but the supply is cheaper to ship.
Traffic World
October 13, 2008 Monday
Satish Jindel
World air freight volumes are down, especially air freight volumes from Asia to the United States. The weakening U.S. economy is usually blamed for this decline, but that analysis overlooks something very small that has had a big impact on air freight: the iPod.
The popular little iPod - and other products like it - is playing a role in the decline in demand for air cargo space far larger than the iPod itself.
Attempts to explain the decline focus on the slower economic growth rate in the United States, higher fuel prices that hit airlines and consumers this summer and events related to the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, but they ignore the impact of technological developments related to the miniaturization of products and improved packaging.
The scale and pace at which these two trends have occurred in electronics, aerospace and retail is quite breathtaking and explains how these trends, in combination with the economic slowdown and higher fuel prices, are hitting the air freight industry with an unprecedented decline in demand for air cargo space from passenger airlines and all-cargo airlines.
How did such a miniature product become so mighty? In the consumer electronics sector, a Sony Boombox weighing 10 pounds and as big as a large shoebox - more than 1,200 cubic inches - is being replaced by Apple's iPod. The iPod weighs only 8 ounces. The weight of one Sony Boombox equals the combined weight of more than 20 iPods.
The cubic area comparison is even more alarming. A fully packaged iPod occupies only 38 cubic inches. Therefore, more than 30 packaged iPods take up less space in an air cargo container than one Boombox.
The problem for air freight companies is compounded by the difference in the value of the products. While a much larger Boombox has a retail value of $75, the pocket-sized iPod is priced at $225.
It's important to note that even with the decline in air freight from Asia as measured by weight this year, the total value of U.S. audio and video electronic imports from Asia still increased by 3.8 percent through July over the same period in 2007.
The iPod's impact is magnified by the growth in its numbers sold worldwide. In 1997, the total sales of home and portable audio equipment units amounted to 60 million. Ten years later, in 2007, the total worldwide sales of iPod and other PMP/MPE players exceeded 215 million. As a result, the air freight industry is transporting more products with less total weight and a higher value but at much lower transportation charge.
Therefore, the miniaturization and improved packaging of electronic products has resulted in permanent elimination of weight and cubic space that will not reappear when the economy recovers.
While the iPod is an example of significant reduction in weight and cubic area on a per unit basis for products shipped via air freight, similar developments across other consumer electronic products that are much larger in size have contributed in greater amount to total weight and cube area decline in both international and domestic airfreight.
Consider the change from bulky console televisions to newer flat panel plasma or LCD televisions. A 4-inch-thick plasma television is so thin in comparison to the older console model with 30 inches or more of thickness that even with packaging, five plasma televisions take up less space than one console television. In terms of weight, the newer models are about one-third the weight of console televisions.
With more than 90 million flat-panel televisions sold globally in 2007, the impact of changes in television design on the air freight industry has also been significant. With these units representing still only 47 percent of all television units sold worldwide and gaining market share over console units, more reduction in air freight from this product alone is yet to come.
Technological developments in business electronic industries are also impacting the total tonnage handled by other transportation providers. For example, when Dell was shipping mainly CRT monitors with each weighing about 25 pounds, a million monitors would have weighed 25 million pounds. With the switch to flat panel monitors that weigh 7 pounds and are of greater value, the total tonnage now amounts to 7 million pounds that thus requires only one-third the total number of containers.
Hence, the carriers (whether airfreight, ocean freight, truckload, LTL or parcel) need to rethink how they price their service and capture the value of their service to reflect the changes in the supply chain and product characteristics in their customers industry.
Product weight and size driven changes are not limited to electronics alone but can be found in other industries as well.
Many aerospace parts used in the assembly of airplanes are now made of new materials that are 30 percent lighter and much stronger. The latest Boeing Dreamliner aircraft is designed with materials that will result in the entire aircraft being lighter than its predecessor by 20 percent.
Improvement in packaging and related reduction in package size is also affecting air freight volumes.
These changes are partly influenced by the greening of America and the January 2007 changes in dimensional pricing for ground parcel service. Many companies that previously designed packaging to fit within the prior system of Oversized 1, OS2 and OS3 have been hit with up to double-digit price increases.
These companies have since focused on reducing excess air space from product packaging and contributed to the shrinking of the shipment sizes and the amount of space used in air freight shipments for international and domestic air freight movements.
Increase in the number of cartons loaded in an air cargo container has reduced the transportation charges per unit due to cost being spread over a 5 to 10 percent increase in number of cartons. Wal-Mart's initiative to reduce packaging has provided numerous benefits that have lead to reduction by 3.425 tons of weight in corrugated material, 727 fewer containers from improved density and $3.5 million in transportation costs.
Manufacturers and retailers such as Nike, Starbucks and Aveda have made similar repackaging efforts. Aveda repackaging efforts has saved 150 tons of virgin material, which has reduced shipping tonnage and saved millions of dollars in transportation costs.
Even Apple has repackaged the latest models of iMac. A current generation 20-inch iMac uses 66 percent less plastic and 42 percent less paper than the 20-inch iMac G4 flat panel while taking up 41 percent less space. Similarly, the packaging for the 15.4-inch MacBook Pro laptop is 45 percent lighter and uses 45 percent less volume than the 15-inch PowerBook G4. And, the packaging volume of the sixth-generation 120 GB iPod has been reduced by 82 percent from the first generation iPod. This allows Apple to ship 140 more units per pallet compared with the fourth generation 30 GB iPod.
So although renewed economic growth eventually will improve air freight volumes, air cargo forwarders, carriers and shippers need to understand the impact of changes in product characteristics on current and future air freight business - volume, pricing and revenue.
Jindel is president of SJ Consulting Group, based in Sewickley, Pa.
hes trying to get in cheap lol yo hand SFI looks great here for a trade low float and end of th eday short coverign could send it up back to 4
funny thread on yahoo JW upgraded sfi
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_I/threadview?m=tm&bn=16373&tid=11669&mid=11669&tof=1&frt=2
CAEI i got stoppped out at 3.60 but im going in back for more here at 3.30 i cant belief is down at this price the future is very bright for this company
China Architectural Engineering Announces Nearly $16 Million in New Contracts and Significant Additions to Engineering Staff
Monday September 29, 9:13 am ET
thats old news from a few weeks ago
lol finally figure out how to sign up for the mailing list is was mad easy
heres the link
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/chairmail_sub.asp?board_id=12634
i agree theres basement bargains every where i stop day trading as much im just accomulating cheap shares of everything 2-3 years from now you will get rewarded big time , look at what the governement is doing buying up all the financial institutions for cheap this country is going to be even more wealthy 10 years from now
my reccession pick is PSS payless shoes
lol this is so frustrating when the market is down 200 plus points an my only short is green all i could do is laugh
looKing at ahead for the next few months i recommend TSL,PSS,RGS,RIMM,BBBY,MOV,OBAMA
not for me i got in at 3.85
come on market lest rally the last 30 minutes end up 100 points up
just woke up my CAEI order filled at 3.85 what a gift
in at 12.80 out at 13.10 too many shorts on it since this is earnings week for airlines fuk it ill take my small gain to the bank
im here hoping CAL breaks 13
HAND please slap me across the face i ddint buy it at the end but i will tomorrow morning TSL rallies big timeeverytime u recommend it
i dont blame u this market takes away ur confidance , the gambler in me make me hold some of my pics
if this market doesnt open up tomorrow imma kick myself in the nuts
HAND youre right this could be real good this week quarter after quarter this company has deliver too bad this market has kept it down but it could be easily shoot up to 15 im in small for now
sorry about my outburst hand but IM GANGSTER FROM THE MEAN STREETS OF BEL AIR
DONT SELL is a long term investment whats th epoint of selling if drops a few cents SECURITY GET THIS IDIOT OUT OF HERE
i found a bank to short ORIT i think it goes back to 13 from here maybe lower ocne shorts start hitting this stock wasnt available to short even before the short ban on financials but it is
the hand is jerking off i bet you
I agree SIRI will pay off big time specially for us that ar ein at this price
PKD i like it here 7.86 look at chart
“The best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets”
Baron Nathan von Rothschild
Dear Investor, “Even if the blood is your own” was the second more eyebrow-raising part of that quote from Baron von Rothschild, who was at the time one of the world’s pre-eminent financiers. He started the venerable bank NM Rothschild which exists (in great financial health) to this day. Rothschild’s financed 18th century resource start-ups that became some of the world’s most successful companies including diamond giant De Beers, huge projects such as the Suez canal, while it also founded Royal Sun Alliance; today one of the world’s largest insurance companies. The Battle of Waterloo Baron Rothschild originally helped provide gold coins to British troops during Britain’s war with Napoleon. Through this business and his family network across Europe he had a pretty good idea of how the war was going, and when the London stock market was collapsing in reaction to rumors that Britain had lost the battle of Waterloo, he stepped in and started buying shares as they plummeted. It is doubtful he managed to pick the exact bottom but these shares sure looked like spectacular investments a few months later. In short Rothschild became famous (and fabulously rich) for making big bets on good companies he knew well, based on his calculation that the worst of a financial panic was nearly over. Rothschild was buying even though the overwhelming sentiment of virtually every other investor WAS TO SELL. And as he indicated in the second part of his quote he didn’t expect to pick the exact bottom either. Waterloo in the West
So how does this relate to today? Surely the collapse of an American icon, the 158 year old Lehman Brothers marked the low point of the Western cataclysm. (I say the West because most Asian banks escaped largely untouched – please call me and I’ll send you a report which indicates this.) The banking collapse shook up the US Treasury officials enough that it’s now providing a historic trillion-dollar bailout that goes a long way towards establishing a floor for the unwinding of the subprime fiasco.
Crisis Equals Opportunity
In the meantime it is important to be aware of the opportunity that today’s crisis provides. I think it’s obvious that panic selling has driven a lot of great companies to bargain levels. And the smart money knows this: Warren Buffet has not stopped buying stocks. T. Boone Pickens thinks we are surrounded by bargains.
Baron Nathan von Rothschild
What do these billionaires know that we don’t? Japanese brokerage giant Nomura, just stepped in and bought all of Lehman Brothers Asian business units. What does Nomura, one of the world’s largest brokers know? And what commodity just experienced its largest single day upward move in its history? (The answer is crude oil, but I’ll get to that later.) Could we have just seen the bottom?
The World’s Other Half
More than half the world’s population lives in Asia and Africa and both are the world’s fastest growing oil consumers. Some can keep prices low because they are major oil producers (Nigeria/Angola), and others because they can afford it owing to their booming economies and large account surpluses ( China). Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, is also a major consumer. The Kingdom uses roughly 2 million barrels per day, more than 20% of what it produces. Worryingly, its consumption is expected to rise to a full third of its production in the next 6 years. As this occurs the Saudi’s will have less oil to export and its ability to moderate oil price rises will diminish. The Asian Equation: China Compared to sparsely-populated oil-guzzling Saudi Arabia , China currently has 20% of the world’s people, and has one of the lowest, but fastest growing, per capita oil consumption rates in the world. As a result, in the first half of this year China’s oil imports grew by 11% (11.5% in August) while its consumption exceeded for the first time, 8 million barrels per day. It is now the world’s second largest oil consumer. And the latest figures show Chinese crude imports continue to rocket in spite of historically high oil prices.
Asian Growth To Continue
Some of the world’s most astute analysts from Goldman Sachs (which says China’s growth is about to re-accelerate and oil will trade back at $140 next year), Deutsche Bank and The Bank Credit Analyst, all expect China to emerge from this subprime-challenged period relatively unscathed and continue to grow by at least 9% annually. Why? Well for starters China has the cash to weather this economic storm by increasing infrastructure building just as its swelling middle-class has enough savings to propel a massive increase in consumption. The country’s massive 1.8 trillion-dollar foreign reserve war chest is well known, as its savings rate which is an astonishing 50%. At the same time its government runs a miniscule budget deficit (1.5% of GDP ) even though it is building out infrastructure amounting to a city the size of Dallas every month.
Asia ’s growth prospects are summarized in a recent BCA’s report which says: “the developing world will weather the U.S. financial meltdown reasonably well, and the gravity of the world economy will continue to shift towards the east, especially to China .” Lakshmi Mittal, CEO of Arcelor Mittal the world’s largest steel maker agrees, recently predicting: “Developing Economies can withstand the fallout from the credit crisis.” As further evidence, the economies of four of China ’s six inland provinces are reported to have grown 13% YOY in the first half of 2008. Asia ’s growth is set to continue and Nomura and in anticipation it is buying Lehman’s Asian assets. Continued Asian growth not only means higher oil prices but increased demand for other commodities. Last Month Rio Tinto one of the world’s biggest miners said “ China may need to build between 40,000 and 50,000 skyscrapers to meet the demands of its urbanization influx”. That’s a lot of copper, cement and steel.
America ’s Woes
As Asia booms America (though it may surprise many on how quickly its economy can adapt) is stumbling. Its government budget is deeply in the red, it has $9.7 trillion in debt (not including the Fannie May/ Freddie Mac bailout) and its citizen’s dismal 0.6% savings rate is so entrenched that James Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer recently quipped that: “The American consumer is no more prone to save than the American marine is to retreat”. (And yes, Grant’s did predict the subprime collapse.)
So Who Is Left To Sell?
I think the ensuing selling panic has reached an absolute extreme, and that the oil stocks have the most potential. For example the Philadelphia Oil Service Index has a forward PE of 10.7. That is its cheapest valuation since the Savings and Loans collapse-driven bear market of 1992. Just reverting to 15 times earnings would mean roughly a 50% gain. But the overall market is also as historically oversold. Incredibly, a recent survey by Merrill Lynch reported that 24% of all hedge funds had net short positions. Last month, Investors Intelligence reported the number of bearish investors was at 50% – the highest since the 1997 Asian collapse! The question that now begs is who is left to sell?
Or more interesting, what can happen when selling is finally exhausted? This was recently illustrated in the oil market (and should be taken as very bullish) only week a ago. Last Monday as traders were almost universally bearish, oil rocketed at one point by $30 a barrel – Oil’s largest one-day jump in its history!
The Best Time To Buy Is When There Is Blood In The Streets
When historic buying opportunities occur it is vital to remember Baron Rothschild’s advice. Now that millions of investors have capitulated and sold what ever they can, for anything they can get, I believe we are faced with a fantastic opportunity. The next important step is to decide which shares will mover higher and faster. We make money in this world anticipating what most don’t; buying cheap when others are selling because as Warren Buffet says “you pay a high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus”. Now that much of the world is positioned for financial Armageddon shouldn’t we be buying?
Forget Financials
Certainly picking the right sector is paramount. This clearly eliminates the financial sector, whose sub-prime cataclysm the Montreal-based Bank Credit Analyst describes as having “destroyed virtually the entire U.S. investment banking industry (and) profoundly shaken investor confidence”. What happens next for this sector even with the Treasury’s trillion dollar bail out, will likely be years of underperformance as the sector attempts to recover and reinvent itself, while at the same time it is bound in a regulatory straight jacket that drastically limits what it can do. ‘The Financial sector is now like the track star that barely survives a car crash. The doctor is relieved to report the patient will live, but regretfully adds that he will never run again.’
Buffet’s Bargain Hunting
I know of no asset classes that were spared the past months’ onslaught of forced selling. But already oil’s rally has made the energy sector the front-runner to be the one which will give us the biggest profits. Clearly as part of the financial system’s de-leveraging, the majority of weak oil market players have been forced out. Notably, as the market’s crash was underway Rothschild-like, Warren Buffet, (through MidAmerican Energy) made a $4.7 billion deal to buy natural gas and electric power supplier Constellation Energy.
Buffet’s confidence in the energy sector tells me its not about to implode, in fact the reverse is likely true.
As for oil, speculators still short crude when it traded below the Saudi’s $100 price target, they were more than foolish. Why would they bet against Saudi Arabia , with its trillion dollar (including worldwide investments) war chest and its position as the oil market’s only swing producer? The Saudi’s had already indicated they considered $100 per barrel to be their target price. When oil briefly traded at $90 it was time to cover. It is usually good advice to listen when an 800 pound guerilla tells you what it wants to do. Spotting The Next Super Stock In my search for great stock investments, the one thing I look for during the final stages of a market plunge are companies whose share prices are not falling at all. That is companies whose shares are going sideways on major down days or even better: their shares are moving up. When I see this, it alerts me that it is likely, sophisticated deep-pocketed investors have just stepped in and that a major opportunity may be in the making. Other things I look for are large block trades or private placements to individuals or companies that are experts in the same business, much like Mr. Buffet’s MidAmerican buying Constellation Energy.
Oil Sector Performance Hi-lights Its Strength and our opportunity I believe the Oil sector correction is a once in a life-time buying opportunity. I think it is important to eliminate the major oil producers such as ExxonMobil as candidates because they are more likely to experience significant declines in production for the foreseeable future. In its last earnings report for example, Exxon said its oil production had dropped an eye-popping 8%. This is one reason the Amex Oil Index (which includes many majors) has done so badly compared to the S&P TSX Oil Index (see chart below) which is merely back where it was when 2008 began. The TSX index consists of mostly fast-growing mid-sized oil and gas producers – just what we are on the lookout for. Similar to the TSX’s breakout and retracement I can recall numerous major bull moves that began with a breakout rally that was quickly retraced before beginning the next major bull leg up. This is exactly what happened to the NASDAQ index in 1982 and the subsequent rewards for investors that bought during the NASDAQ’s frightening 1982 correction were immense, as it later rose (over the next 17 years), nearly 5000 percent. S&P TSX Oil Index Manas Petroleum Now that it is likely the worst is over for the oil juniors and their next wave up looks imminent, we were gratified to see that one of our client companies, Manas Petroleum, actually bottomed as the stock market was still crashing. In fact, its shares moved higher on some of the market’s darkest days. In the midst of all the turmoil in what I think was good indication of how undervalued its shares had become, Manas also raised (debt and shares) US $4.6 million. Manas management has not disclosed the identity of the investor(s) but clearly given the market’s extreme volatility, whoever bought must have considered it a bargain if they were willing to overlook the crashing market, and, because of this, they are unlikely to be amateurs. A possible future price catalyst is that Manas Petroleum’s partner in Kyrgyz Republic Australian oil major Santos, is expected to begin drilling this November. I think its quite evident that Manas has entered into a new and exciting phase as this drilling begins and work continues at its other oil and gas projects in Mongolia , Chile and Albania. Happily for us, as the chart indicates, the market appears to agree.
As you requested I am looking forward to keeping you informed regarding Manas Petroleum and I will be happy to continue to promptly send you this quarterly, and updates whenever important news occurs. In the meantime you can also go to Manas Petroleum’s web site at www.manaspete.com. Or better still, call me or my associates for the very latest information at 800 404 8982. It would be great to speak with you in person, so please call. Manas is one of the oil industries’ most exciting stories and I’d love to discuss it with you.
Wishing you a happy and prosperous future,
Very Sincerely,
Kevin McKnight, President, Undiscovered Equities, Inc.
IM NOT GOING TO LISTEN TO BLOOMBERG OR WATCH CNBC ANY MORE WHO NEEDS THOSE LOSER IM ONLY GONNA FOLLOW THE INVISIBLE HAND'S EVERY MOVE WIN LOSE OR DRAW , IN MY MANY YEARS OF TRADING NEVER WITNESS SUCH A TALENTED INDIVIDUAL
WOW YO HAND I WOULD KISS YOUR HAND IF I WAS ABLE TO SEE IT WOW!!!!!!!!I CANT BELIEVE IM GREEN TODAY WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!
THIS GOTTA BE THE GREATEST MOMENT IN THIS GROUP THE MARKET COLLAPSES AND THANKS TO THE INVISIBLEHAND WE STILL MADE MONEY
I LOVE U HAND NO HOMO
BCSI short looks like a classic head and shoulder formation on chart i think it goes down from here
THIS JUST IN Osama Bin ladin covers his naked shorts, he decides to cover his 1000000000000000 trillion shares of U.S. securities sending the stock market to an all time high , this incredible turn around makes the population so happy about the finacial situation in this country that they decide to elect Bush for a 3rd time over writting the constitution LOL
my PSS short worked out nicely, im going to short HA its a hawaiian airline betting that the tripple top chat formation will make people take profits plus i think oil might rebound
so im short on HA
my longs today are WM and PKD and also addign SOLF on hands recommendation
wallstreetraider since u have such unique power of making stocks tanked when u buy them I suggest that you retired from this group asap until then i wont post my picks of fear of you buying them and making them tanked